The Coronavirus thread

[tozmervo]

I don't know if there's reliable data to track on this, but I seem to be getting far, far more news about huge outbreaks of COVID in Tennessee than I am here. Whole nursing homes, hospital staff, etc. Are we undertesting? Underreporting? Or legit keeping things under better control than Tenn? 

[11 HouseBZ]

Under testing

[elrodvt]

Tesla is delivering more ventilators to areas that allow Tesla delivery. No word on how many.

Personally, I would also consider cutting out states that are putting extra taxes on EV, such as NC, but I guess he's rising above that- which is smart. Others can wait for GM and Ford.

I know that's not necessarily a popular opinion here so move it to politics if you want.

[Crucial_Infra]

2 hours ago, tozmervo said:

I don't know if there's reliable data to track on this, but I seem to be getting far, far more news about huge outbreaks of COVID in Tennessee than I am here. Whole nursing homes, hospital staff, etc. Are we undertesting? Underreporting? Or legit keeping things under better control than Tenn? 

North Carolina is one of the leading states when it comes to testing. One of the ways you can tell we aren’t under testing is our incredibly low death rate compared to the rest of the country. Just 9 deaths which ranks 35th in nation. NC ranks 19th in total cases which is low considering NC is the ninth most populous state. Per capita, NC is doing better than probably any other state. Could that change? Of course. But right now, NC is doing really well. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Edited April 1, 2020 by Crucial_Infra

[kermit]

32 minutes ago, Crucial_Infra said:

North Carolina is one of the leading states when it comes to testing. One of the ways you can tell we aren’t under testing is our incredibly low death rate compared to the rest of the country. Just 9 deaths which ranks 35th in nation. NC ranks 19th in total cases which is low considering NC is the ninth most populous state. Per capita, NC is doing better than probably any other state. Could that change? Of course. But right now, NC is doing really well. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

One other factor helping to keep death rates low in NC is most of our cases appear to be in Meck, Wake or Durham counties -- all places where the average age is relatively low.  We have not yet seen much spread into areas where average ages are much higher (the mountains and coast) this is starting to happen rapidly in other portions of the South.  I suspect the isolation of the NC mountains, and it being off-season down at the coast have helped.

#NotanExpert

Edited April 1, 2020 by kermit

[urbanlover568]

Earthquake 400 miles from Yellowstone. That's enough 2020.

[KJHburg]

I will leave the bad news to others but here are 2 virus survivors one 95 and one 102 years young!    (and the 95 year old vet's family cites his positive attitude imagine that)

https://www.theblaze.com/news/95-year-old-veteran-beats-coronavirus  he had underlying  medical conditions too

https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/oregon-veteran-95-beats-coronavirus-i-survived-guam-i-can-get-through-this-bulls-t/

https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-102-year-old-woman-survives-italy/6063077/    102 year old woman in Italy survives!

 

 

[Crucial_Infra]

1 hour ago, kermit said:

One other factor helping to keep death rates low in NC is most of our cases appear to be in Meck, Wake or Durham counties -- all places where the average age is relatively low.  We have not yet seen much spread into areas where average ages are much higher (the mountains and coast) this is starting to happen rapidly in other portions of the South.  I suspect the isolation of the NC mountains, and it being off-season down at the coast have helped.

#NotanExpert

So many factors at play for sure but that’s a good point about age. Another is that we aren’t a densely populated state — even our cities. It’s the one time I thought, “hey suburban sprawl might actually be good for us!”  

[urbanlover568]

10 minutes ago, Crucial_Infra said:

So many factors at play for sure but that’s a good point about age. Another is that we aren’t a densely populated state — even our cities. It’s the one time I thought, “hey suburban sprawl might actually be good for us!”  

Take a look at Macon GA

[urbanlover568]

BREAKING - United States breaks its one-day record for #COVID19 deaths, reporting 865 fatalities – Johns Hopkins University

[KJHburg]

15 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

Take a look at Macon GA

it is not Macon it is Albany GA and all seem to start from a large funeral.  Very tragic and everyone was hugging and shaking each others hands.   Chatham County home of Savannah much bigger in population has 32 cases compared to 466 in the county Albany is located in which is Dougherty.    https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-funeral-albany-georgia.html

But as I have said this will pass and the many experts expect the peak will be in the next 2-3 weeks.  I know for many it is hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel but it is there nonetheless. 

[urbanlover568]

Guess China really didn't get rid of the coronavirus as they said...

 

China's National Health Commission says it will start reporting asymptomatic cases of coronavirus. At least 1,541 new cases have been disclosed so far 

[kermit]

We are not kicking ass with tests (we have administered about 2 tests per thousand people, 17 from the bottom, marginally better than Arkansas). SC is 4th from the bottom.

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by kermit

[elrodvt]

There are a LOT of people w/o insurance in states like NC which didn't expand medicare and were generally hostile to the ACA.

I imagine that must inordinately hold down the number of tests especially in poor rural areas? These people have a lifetime training of not going to the dr unless something is falling off.

 

BTW, I had a telcon dr appt today and he explained that Atrium is doing something I find smart. They are cutting "in hospital" staff to 1/2 normal and having the rest work at home. Then they switch the A and B teams as the at home staff passes through normal incubation stage without symptoms. I wonder if novant is doing the same? Makes a ton of sense to me if there are enough people to go around which is no problem YET.  That and pulling way back on the amount of blood testing for people with cancer/liver/kidney disease who're normally heavily tested and are in very high risk groups. I'm personally going from weekly to monthly testing and have to pay close attention to any new symptoms that might mean a change has a occurred and testing is critical.

These 1 dr towns have no luxury like that so as medical staff becomes infected they're supercarriers for 5 days or so. Stinks.

Thus, I think the numbers need to be normalized by a lot of factors to be meaningful at this grain. I hope I am wrong and this is all supposition on my part.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by elrodvt

[southslider]

The uninsured prepare your take-out food and stock your grocery shelves.

[elrodvt]

Here is a good read on why it is so difficult to model the future of covid19.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/

[urbanlover568]

#BREAKING A county in central China's Henan province has been put in partial lockdown after recent #coronavirus cases 

[gman430]

Well, I am shocked I tell you. Shocked: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/coronavirus-china-hid-extent-of-outbreak-us-intelligence-reportedly-says.html

[urbanlover568]

40 minutes ago, gman430 said:

Well, I am shocked I tell you. Shocked: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/coronavirus-china-hid-extent-of-outbreak-us-intelligence-reportedly-says.html

They deserve sanctions. Most of this could have been avoided.

Florida issued a 30 day stay at home order.

[Matthew.Brendan]

 

[elrodvt]

That's all true I'm sure but don't pretend we didn't do the same thing. US intelligence reported this was a serious issue in January.

That said, it's surely a weakness of their political system. 

Saying this could have been prevented might be true in Europe, I don't know, but not in our country because our leadership was in denial mode and fundamentally does not believe in intelligence or science.

Instead of sanctions perhaps we could request more help since our country appears incapable of ramping up the testing, protective gear and respirators. Note that states and individual businesses are doing just that with some success.

Edited April 1, 2020 by elrodvt

[Crucial_Infra]

14 hours ago, kermit said:

We are not kicking ass with tests (we have administered about 2 tests per thousand people, 17 from the bottom, marginally better than Arkansas). SC is 4th from the bottom.

 

NC is testing more than any other southeastern state except Florida so when compared to our peers, we’re doing quite well. 

But again, because testing is so inconsistent from state to state, you must look at death rate. NC only has 10 deaths total with ~1600 positive tests. Compare that GA, which has 14x as many deaths as NC but only 3x as many positive tests. That shows that GA is way under testing compared to NC. GA’s true infection number is likely 5-10x what the current testing shows. NC’s deaths are very much inline with our total confirmed infections. 
 

When this is over, I predict NC will be lauded as a place that did it right/got lucky. 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Crucial_Infra

[kermit]

2 hours ago, Crucial_Infra said:

NC is testing more than any other southeastern state except Florida so when compared to our peers, we’re doing quite well. 

But again, because testing is so inconsistent from state to state, you must look at death rate. NC only has 10 deaths total with ~1600 positive tests. Compare that GA, which has 14x as many deaths as NC but only 3x as many positive tests. That shows that GA is way under testing compared to NC. GA’s true infection number is likely 5-10x what the current testing shows. NC’s deaths are very much inline with our total confirmed infections. 
 

When this is over, I predict NC will be lauded as a place that did it right/got lucky. 

I agree, I think NC will come out of this looking like we made the right decisions. Early lockdowns, school closings, etc. certainly helped. Its still going to be ugly and there is lots of blame going around already. Here is a paragraph from Jeff Jackson's update today:

Quote

To be blunt: We are not going to have the type of widespread testing we hoped for. There are lots of reasons for that - none of which have to do with our state and all of which have to do with the federal response - but it’s a reality. We’re still using tests and they're very important, but we're not going to test our way out of this like South Korea did. We just didn't get enough test kits fast enough.

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by kermit

[urbanlover568]

News: US government has requested 100,000 body bags. Pentagon will draw some initially from stockpile of 50,000 it maintains, and is looking into buying more, sources tell @ACapaccio. Somber preparation as Trump officials project as many as 200k Americans may die of coronavirus.

[Crucial_Infra]

Georgia finally closes the barn door... after 14x as many deaths as NC which began shutting down weeks ago.