The Coronavirus thread

[videtur quam contuor]

You, and mostly all of us, are missing something.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-01/coronavirus-italy-shows-we-may-be-underestimating-death-toll

 

This excess death calculation can be read about in numerous locations. Those who die at home, in care homes, of underlying conditions aggravated by CV, who could not receive care due to hospital conditions and many other factors. The comparison of deaths Year on Year in many locations show this.

This from the Financial Times today:
Across Europe, excess deaths in Italy in early March were already six times higher than normally expected for the time of year. By mid-March the rates were already “very high” in Spain and “high” in England and Switzerland and, even without Italy’s figures, deaths were well above normal across all European countries participating in the monitoring exercise. These excess death statistics are going to rise further in the short term because we already have data from hospitals showing the deepening coronavirus crisis in the second half of last month.  It is time therefore to stop worrying about exactly what killed people and how long they might have lived. These figures are as uncertain as economic data. While the emerging excess death statistics are still premature, there is no way of sugar-coating them.  Even with Europe locked down, coronavirus has been killing too many of our citizens well before their time. It will continue to do so until the pandemic is well under control.

Edited April 2, 2020 by tarhoosier

[kermit]

2 hours ago, kermit said:

Some good news which is not influenced by the testing shortage. Disclaimer, one day does not make a trend:

 

 

Despite this good news,  the Ledger reports this afternoon that Atrium has requested that the County allow it to set up a field hospital to accommodate an expected surge in Corona cases.

Edited April 2, 2020 by kermit

[joenc]

Can they use the convention center or is not possible because of the renovations?

[kermit]

6 minutes ago, joenc said:

Can they use the convention center or is not possible because of the renovations?

Dunno, but it certainly would be an option otherwise. I suspect they will want these as close to their hospitals as possible, ball fields at Freedom Park come to mind.

UNCC is preparing to house quarantine patients in their South Village dorms.

Edited April 2, 2020 by kermit

[QCxpat]

Today's Charlotte Ledger Business Newsletter - "Charlotte hospitals might need 3,000 more beds;  Atrium / Novant want a huge field hospital at UNC Charlotte, they say in letter to County"

"Mecklenburg County hospitals might be short as many as 3,000 hospital beds when coronavirus cases peak, the CEOs of Charlotte’s top healthcare systems wrote in a letter Thursday to County Manager Dena Diorio.  The heads of Novant Health and Atrium Health propose that the county work with state and federal leaders to build a field hospital at UNC Charlotte to accommodate an expected surge in patients between mid-April and mid-May."   "In a letter, they wrote:  "While there are no perfect models, using the latest epidemiological statistical analysis to predict community spread, we are anticipating potential additional volumes of approximately 3,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients beyond our currently planned surge capacity.   In addition, our models suggest the surge will occur between mid-April and mid-May 2020.   As seen in other cities across the nation, such a surge can quickly overwhelm hospitals, and a field hospital can act as an important relief valve.  Therefore, the time to act is now to implement solutions needed to adequately care for our patients and community."

Link:  https://charlotteledger.substack.com/

[KJHburg]

Charlotte Ledger did a great story in their email today about how much sales of certain consumer products has changed in the last month and it is staggering.

Plus just missed the top growth in sales in USA   Imagine if you were a manufacturer of such a product like toilet paper which is 90%  made in the USA have your sales go up 236% in a month.   (and by the way I make my own chocolate chip cookie dough perhaps I should start selling it   KJ's Kookies

this is weekly sales comparison compared to last year. 

• Toilet tissue, +236%   (a DOUBLING OF toilet paper sales)  

• Frozen pizzas, +117%

• Disposable diapers, +94%

• Fresh eggs, +71%

• Potato chips, +33%

Oh yeah liquor sales in the USA up 30% and only 29% in the last month in Mecklenburg County ABC stores 

Edited April 2, 2020 by KJHburg

[Richhamleigh, DC]

Genius.

https://www.planetizen.com/news/2020/03/108878-mississippi-governor-first-preempt-local-stay-home-orders

Edited April 2, 2020 by Phillydog

[KJHburg]

90 year old woman in the very nursing home in Kirkland Washington center of one of the first outbreaks survives and read her story of faith.

https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2020/april/i-was-never-alone-he-was-with-me-all-the-time-90-year-old-woman-beats-covid-19-credits-god

[elrodvt]

I really hate to post this... These idiots ARE going to get a lot of people killed. At this point , and I know this probably is a huge overreaction,  it might be time to halt commuters from SC entering NC Mecklenburg. I wonder if there's a legal way to do so? Perhaps expand the non essential business list to any which allow SC employees in their office? I know it's a blunt as hell tool but with no Federal government what else can the states do to protect their people? Maybe no gas should be to dispensed to cars with GA, MS, SC, FL, TN etc.. tags either. It sucks but damn. Hopefully there are better ways...

The GA governor claims he just today learned asymptomatic people can spread it. WTH??

[urbanlover568]

The FDA Just Eased Its Restrictions On Gay Men Donating Blood Amid Pandemic Shortages. 

 

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-provides-updated-guidance-address-urgent-need-blood-during-pandemic

[urbanlover568]

Scary...

[elrodvt]

Nature of a geometric progression. I think a lot of people have said the absolute numbers are less important right now, due to limited testing and reporting. The nature of the curve is the proper focus. Let's hope that sucker gets more linear soon! I wish we weren't too exceptional to ask our allies Taiwan and Korea for help. Oh wait, they look Chinese right?

[elrodvt]

Engadget: Google's COVID-19 location data shows regions that are violating lockdown orders..
https://www.engadget.com/google-covid-19-community-mobility-reports-095050862.html

 

Not a great look for the USA.

[nicholas]

Well the graph looks even worse than it should because China has been lying about its numbers. 

Italy seems to slowly be heading in the right direction.  The U.S. is about 7-10 days behind Italy, so it will probably take another week or so for new cases to start slowing down here.

Edited April 3, 2020 by nicholas

[kermit]

What happened to the Wal Mart parking lot drive-through COVID testing that president impeached promised on March 13?

Why didn't anybody ask jared about that yesterday?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-google/google-walmart-join-government-effort-to-speed-up-coronavirus-testing-trump-says-idUSKBN21036R

Edited April 3, 2020 by kermit

[davidclt]

36 minutes ago, elrodvt said:

Engadget: Google's COVID-19 location data shows regions that are violating lockdown orders..
https://www.engadget.com/google-covid-19-community-mobility-reports-095050862.html

 

Not a great look for the USA.

At least Mecklenburg County is outpacing or matching the US for everything but parks. That said, I'm part of the problem because I walk (very socially distanced) through a park every day.

[kermit]

NM, I was wrong....

Edited April 3, 2020 by kermit

[davidclt]

Just now, kermit said:

I think you are reading the charts wrong. Baseline is (I believe) normal activity levels in Charlotte, not nationwide change. I believe all of Charlotte’s numbers show less activity reduction than most other places. (Might be wrong)

US overall for comparison: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_US_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

	US	Mecklenburg	Difference
Retail & Recreation	-47%	-53%	6%
Grocery & Pharmacy	-22%	-23%	1%
Parks	-19%	1%	-20%
Transit Stations	-51%	-70%	19%
Workplace	-38%	-43%	5%
Residential	12%	13%	1%

[kermit]

The longer this goes the more I sense a real lack of local political leadership in this situation. I would really like to hear more from Vi Lyles and who ever happens to be the chief of police at the moment (Putney is on retirement / vacation I believe). 

It just seems like a bunch of silence.

While I know there isn't much to be done at the moment there are discussion that can be had about planning for returns to normalcy, local government financial decisions that might preserve local businesses, and what might be done to address the SC exposure issue (all of the work we have done to reduce spread can be instantly undone by a bunch of contagious South Carolinian’s commuting up to go to work (when that happens again).

local government has a role to play in all this, I just want to know that our elected officials are ‘working on it’

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by kermit

[videtur quam contuor]

36 minutes ago, kermit said:

What happened to the Wal Mart parking lot drive-through COVID testing that president impeached promised on March 13?

Why didn't anybody ask jared about that yesterday?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-google/google-walmart-join-government-effort-to-speed-up-coronavirus-testing-trump-says-idUSKBN21036R

Five locations in the U. S.  None for general public

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/politics/drive-thru-coronavirus-testing/index.html

And Google/Alphabet website by Verily that he talked about at the same time? Bay area only.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-screening-site-verily-google-califiornia-trump-expanding-beyond-4-counties/

[CLT2014]

57 minutes ago, kermit said:

The longer this goes the more I sense a real lack of local political leadership in this situation. I would really like to hear more from Vi Lyles and who ever happens to be the chief of police at the moment (Putney is on retirement / vacation I believe). 

It just seems like a bunch of silence.

While I know there isn't much to be done at the moment there are discussion that can be had about planning for returns to normalcy, local government financial decisions that might preserve local businesses, and what might be done to address the SC exposure issue (all of the work we have done to reduce spread can be instantly undone by a bunch of contagious South Carolinian’s commuting up to go to work (when that happens again).

local government has a role to play in all this, I just want to know that our elected officials are ‘working on it’

Vi Lyles has been talking to the public nearly everyday on social media and posting updates. The city social media pages are very active right now on Facebook, Nextdoor, Twitter, et. right now as well. Vi's hosting a Q&A session on Twitter today. Councilman Tariq Bokhari hosted a live session for the City of Charlotte Small Business Forum today to discuss the impact on small businesses and potential solutions. The city social media pages discuss the 1,200 stay at home violations that have been reported in Charlotte and plead residents to stop gathering. Updates on utility regulations, number of cases, et... After the surge in park visitors this weekend the city blasted social median with X overcrowding public spaces, X running full court basketball X kickbacks at the house with friends DO YOUR PART

They probably are de-emphasizing press conferences because most reporters are working remote and the co-hort that isn't sheltering in place doesn't watch local TV news. Hence the main resources to talk to residents right now is through social media channels. It is likely futile as your average Charlotte dude that "just needs some fresh air and playing volleyball with friends" isn't probably following the city on social media, nor care. Everybody's aware of what's going on so I doubt they will listen to a mayor if they aren't listening to the federal or state government either.

Edited April 3, 2020 by CLT2014

[tozmervo]

I'm not inclined to be an apologist for Vi, but I also read that the city is being intentionally deferential to the county. The county runs the health department, so the city would not want to issue additional messaging that could just add to an already confusing situation. 

[kermit]

^ OK, the yielding to the health department makes sense and I have seen more of Diorio and Harris on the Twitter. So I’ll admit my perception was off.

It does however feel like most of what I hear from  the county is reports about what -has- happened, and I am kinda longing for some local discussion of what -will- happen (in terms of plans for moving out of lockup).

The news from Lyles this morning about ‘probably/maybe’ shutting down transit with zero additional details really struck me as a misstep. 
 

 

1 hour ago, kermit said:

^ OK, the yielding to the health department makes sense and I have seen more of Diorio (?) and Harris on the Twitter. So I’ll admit my perception was off. I also only really consume local news from twitter or the Observer so outreach using other modes would have missed me. I am glad to know it’s out there.

It does however feel like most of what I hear from  the county is reports about what -has- happened, and I am kinda longing for some local discussion of what -will- happen (in terms of plans for moving out of lockup).

The news from Lyles this morning about ‘probably/maybe’ shutting down transit with zero additional details really struck me as a misstep. 
 

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by kermit

[kermit]

 

[davidclt]

25 minutes ago, kermit said:

It's frightening when I have to think to myself when seeing an article from The Onion, is it satire or is The Onion now reporting real news on the fresh hell that is our reality?