The Coronavirus thread

[11 HouseBZ]

6 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

It becomes troublesome when poster(s) posts the same thing over and over and diminishes the seriousness of the situation. This is a serious threat and I hope people understand it.

My grandparents and parents aren't "on their last leg" like some people are saying, but they will die if they get this.

The minute we stop fighting for one other and value money over life is when we loose our humanity.  

I agree with everything you're saying here. I'm still confused as to why we can't share the survival stories though. These stories to me mean we are doing some good and are going to get beer.

Edited April 17, 2020 by 11 HouseBZ
... going to get *better*. I'm leaving the mistake, that's a funny auto correct.

[urbanlover568]

Just now, 11 HouseBZ said:

I agree with everything you're saying here. I'm still confused as to why we can't share the survival stories though. These stories to me mean we are doing some good and are going to get beer.

Again. when you spam, you are diminishing the severity of the situation. And if we post every story, this thread will be additional 10000+ pages long every day.

 

 

Dear leader in November 2019"

US intelligence agencies alerted Israel of the #COVID19 outbreak in China already in November. The US intelligence community reportedly became aware of the emerging disease in Wuhan in the second week of November. 

Dear leader today:

 

 

 

Embarrassment to the United States of America. 

[11 HouseBZ]

I don't think posting a survival story lessens the severity of what we're dealing with. For me it reminds me of who we are fighting for. They lived because some people, somewhere did right. 

[urbanlover568]

1 minute ago, 11 HouseBZ said:

I don't think posting a survival story lessens the severity of what we're dealing with. For me it reminds me of who we are fighting for. They lived because some people, somewhere did right. 

It's called statistics and facts...

[11 HouseBZ]

8 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

It's called statistics and facts...

Again, agreed. Yes, I agree with the statistics and facts. They're very grim. I am only debating whether it's acceptable to post positive/survival stories. That's it.

[elrodvt]

@11 HouseBZI see both perspectives. But people like our president or Gman turn on a dime to use them for their tea party "have it both ways" b.s. 

Look, you're responsible with this material while so many are not. Consider these supposed grass roots protests, which are backed by the GOP far righters, and all about setting the stage to let others take any heat for solving the situation, while they use anecdotal stories to position themselves to blame all the economic impact on the responsible politicians. That's the scary outcome. No good answers with people like that running around without the light being shined on them to make them scurry back under their rocks.

Personally I find that much more important than the feel good stories. But we surely do need to feel good!

I hope someone can step in and make this point more eloquently but I'm sure you get the I idea.

Edited April 17, 2020 by elrodvt

[videtur quam contuor]

Those of you who quote him in this thread are annoying to those who have him on ignore.

[11 HouseBZ]

The overwhelming majority of the content posted on the thread is about the facts of the virus, what's current and correcting falsehoods. I personally enjoy the occasional positive annotation. It's the reminder to continue doing right. 

[nicholas]

Come on guys.  You can post positive stories and be a realist at the same time.  If all you consume is negativity, then you will become a negative person in short order.

[elrodvt]

Agreed it very hard to keep a balance.

On a change of topic. During the great depression FDR dug the nation out with both benefit AND jobs programs (the new deal) so at least there were great benefits to our infrastructure. I see two barriers now. Firstly, the politics on agreeing to that with such a split government are really hard (could improve in November) but was that true then too? Secondly, with our current shift to such a service economy would that even be able to put close to as many people to work today? I know someone posted on the Draconian cuts NC is having to make to highway plans and that's exactly what we don't need! But NC can't print money or would aggressive bonds be a good deal now?

I know little about this topic but it could be an interesting conversation for those of you who do.

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by elrodvt

[kermit]

5 minutes ago, elrodvt said:

Secondly, with our current shift to such a service economy would that even be able to put close to as many people to work today? I know someone posted on the Draconian cuts NC is having to make to highway plans and that's exactly what we don't need! But NC can't print money or would aggressive bonds be a good deal now?

I dunno that the new deal was entirely focused on manufacturing, much of it was focused on creating infrastructure, particularly for recreation. No reason we could not do that again. Make work in the service economy is an interesting discussion.

In terms of highway funds, I agree that its suboptimal to not be employing people in any activty, but we really do need a highway construction pause. It any of the ‘everyone will work from home after this is over’ predictions come true then we will have a massive excess highway infrastructure. (Personally I don’t think that will pan out, but I do think a pause so we can think about what a modern transport infrastructure looks like would be useful).

[eastsider]

2 hours ago, gman430 said:

 Beaches in Florida to start reopening today: https://www.clickorlando.com/news/florida/2020/04/17/north-florida-beaches-among-first-to-reopen-since-coronavirus-closures/

 Boat ramps in SC to reopen today: https://www.wltx.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/south-carolina-boat-ramps-docks-reopen/101-69e3b7d1-19b7-474d-be4e-9272d30495c9

It’s happening. It’s happening.  Open the floodgates. Release the Kraken.

 

What do you think would be an acceptable number of deaths in order to open up the economy immediately?

[Crucial_Infra]

Here’s some good news: the IHME model has been updated and it’s down again to about 60,000 deaths. The bad news is it seems to have settled into a range of 60-70k which makes me think it’s getting more reliable.  Starting to think 50k dead is almost a guarantee at this point. NC has been revised downward too, but NY is up again. LINK

[Crucial_Infra]

55 minutes ago, eastsider said:

What do you think would be an acceptable number of deaths in order to open up the economy immediately?

I’ll give you my non expert answer: the people calling for a re-opening of America are largely wrong right now, but they won’t be forever. The truth is that each week that passes we get closer to that date even though we all agree it will cause an increase in infections and death; it’s inevitable. Good news is every week we delay opening, that risk lowers exponentially but it’s also unrealistic to get that risk to 0. If the models show we’re likely to have 10,000 future deaths with a continued lockdown compared to a 10,200 death toll (a 2% increase) if we re-open, then people are going to want to re-open imo. On the other hand, if the models show a 10% or more increase in future deaths by re-opening, I think most people would agree it’s too soon.

[Dale]

Earlier assailed with: “not the flu”

Seroprevalence study: “yes the flu”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

[elrodvt]

14 minutes ago, Crucial_Infra said:

I’ll give you my non expert answer: the people calling for a re-opening of America are largely wrong right now, but they won’t be forever. The truth is that each week that passes we get closer to that date even though we all agree it will cause an increase in infections and death; it’s inevitable. Good news is every week we delay opening, that risk lowers exponentially but it’s also unrealistic to get that risk to 0. If the models show we’re likely to have 10,000 future deaths with a continued lockdown compared to a 10,200 death toll (a 2% increase) if we re-open, then people are going to want to re-open imo. On the other hand, if the models show a 10% or more increase in future deaths by re-opening, I think most people would agree it’s too soon.

Yeah, but i just don't get how it works state by state. obviously the state lines are merely conceptual near borders. so if you border a state opening too early ,or never having done it's share to begin with, how to prevent a yo-yo type effect? Plus without testing capability those models are still pretty large margin of error I believe.  It's gonna be a tight rope!

7 minutes ago, Dale said:

Earlier assailed with: “not the flu”

Seroprevalence study: “yes the flu”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

WTH are you even talking about?

[Crucial_Infra]

35 minutes ago, elrodvt said:

Plus without testing capability those models are still pretty large margin of error I believe.  It's gonna be a tight rope!

Therein lies the rub and why I’m concerned at the moment. The coordination necessary between state, federal and private industry to pull this off would be a heavy lift for any administration, and/but this group isn’t exactly the A-Team.  

[Crucial_Infra]

57 minutes ago, Dale said:

Earlier assailed with: “not the flu”

Seroprevalence study: “yes the flu”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

If that study turns out to be true, that’s great news! Means we’re closer to possible herd immunity and that the CFR is lower. That said, it’s still not the flu in any sense at all. The novel coronavirus has a much much  higher R0 (contagiousness) than the standard flu. Even higher than we knew if those numbers check out. Remember this has killed 35,000 people in a month. With severe mitigation efforts. The only flu in history to do something similar to that was the 1918 Influenza which is what the experts compared COVID-19 to from the beginning. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Crucial_Infra

[kermit]

2 hours ago, elrodvt said:

 Plus without testing capability those models are still pretty large margin of error I believe.  It's gonna be a tight rope!

For sure, especially after the realization that 60% of the 600 diagnosed cases on the Theodore Roosevelt were asymptomatic. The reported carrier data we have been looking at is, at best, 10% of total carriers based on this stat.

Where are the tests???????

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt-idUSKCN21Y2GB

Edited April 17, 2020 by kermit

[elrodvt]

13 minutes ago, Crucial_Infra said:

If that study turns out to be true, that’s great news! Means we’re closer to possible herd immunity and that the CFR is lower. That said, it’s still not the flu in any sense at all. The novel coronavirus has a much much  higher R0 (contagiousness) than the standard flu. Even higher than we knew if those numbers check out. Remember this has killed 35,000 people in a month. With severe mitigation efforts. The only flu in history to do something similar to that was the 1918 Influenza which is what the experts compared COVID-19 to from the beginning. 

Yeah but we don't even know if having antibodies means immunity yet either. I hope it does but not known. 

I mean of course you have "some" antibodies after a virus and of course covid19 is a virus. I think everyone knew there were a lot more mild cases not showing up because of our lack of testing and there have been a lot of (pretty small) studies showing this. I read this a while ago and I don't see what this study does to move things along though. 

The comment of it being flu or not is the WTH moment for me though.

[TCLT]

1 hour ago, elrodvt said:

WTH are you even talking about?

So I've come to the conclusion that Dale's (and to a slightly lesser extent gman430's) highly concentrated strain of stupidity is a very much like a virus. Like a virus, there is no cure for idiocy at that prodigious a level. If you come into contact with it, you have to trust your own intellect to reach the conclusion that you just need to ignore/mute them before they do too much damage to you. That's you gaining the antibody to the virulent asininity. If enough people ignore/mute them, this forum gains a form of herd immunity, whereby the virus still exists, but is unseen and unable to cause any further damage. For any new readers who stumble into this thread, hopefully the existing comments debunking their bunk act as a moderately effective vaccine that at least lessens the symptoms of exposure to such absurdity. Just my (non-peer reviewed) take on them.

[gman430]

4 hours ago, eastsider said:

What do you think would be an acceptable number of deaths in order to open up the economy immediately?

Anything up to the amount the flu kills every year seeing how we don’t shut down the economy for that. 

Oh and Texas to start reopening next week: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8231321/Texas-state-reopen-WEEK.html?ito=social-facebook  State parks there will reopen on Monday. Way to go Texas. 

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by gman430

[elrodvt]

Geeze, I've tried so hard not to. But, later Gman dude.

[urbanlover568]

Six people in South Carolina die of coronavirus after attending same funeral

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/six-people-in-sc-die-of-coronavirus-after-going-to-same-funeral/

[urbanlover568]

53 minutes ago, gman430 said:

Anything up to the amount the flu kills every year seeing how we don’t shut down the economy for that. 

Oh and Texas to start reopening next week: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8231321/Texas-state-reopen-WEEK.html?ito=social-facebook  State parks there will reopen on Monday. Way to go Texas. 

 

OK Troll