The Coronavirus thread

[Crucial_Infra]

59 minutes ago, gman430 said:

Anything up to the amount the flu kills every year seeing how we don’t shut down the economy for that. 

Oh and Texas to start reopening next week: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8231321/Texas-state-reopen-WEEK.html?ito=social-facebook  State parks there will reopen on Monday. Way to go Texas. 

 

I’ll miss you (the drone pics) but bye 

[elrodvt]

If you can find 5 minutes I thought this was an excellent piece on testing issues. It kind of feeds into my question on how you build things in a service economy and what a "new deal" would look like.

I suggest skipping the prior interview with Pence. That man can spend a long time saying absolutely *nothing*.

Edited April 18, 2020 by elrodvt

[nicholas]

3 hours ago, Crucial_Infra said:

I’ll give you my non expert answer: the people calling for a re-opening of America are largely wrong right now, but they won’t be forever. The truth is that each week that passes we get closer to that date even though we all agree it will cause an increase in infections and death; it’s inevitable. Good news is every week we delay opening, that risk lowers exponentially but it’s also unrealistic to get that risk to 0. If the models show we’re likely to have 10,000 future deaths with a continued lockdown compared to a 10,200 death toll (a 2% increase) if we re-open, then people are going to want to re-open imo. On the other hand, if the models show a 10% or more increase in future deaths by re-opening, I think most people would agree it’s too soon.

I think a lot of the people who want everything reopened now either a) are going to be in serious financial trouble if they have to stay locked down for much longer, or b) feel that the lockdown hasn't had a sufficient effect on Covid-19 (because the number confirmed cases and deaths have continued to rise pretty linearly despite weeks of lockdown).

A lot of lockdowns are only effective through the end of this month.  It's almost certainly best to extend it for another two weeks at the very very minimum, but the longer Covid-19 drags on without peaking, the louder and larger the reopen everything crowd is going to get.

[urbanlover568]

How high will we go?! Open everything up while we are at it! #FailedLogic 

[KJHburg]

Dr Birx and Dr Fauci use these models now showing a project death toll tragically of 251 by early August in NC. Good news this model projected 1000s upon 1000s in NC just a few weeks ago. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/north-carolina

From the IHME 

 

[urbanlover568]

8 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Dr Birx and Dr Fauci use these models now showing a project death toll tragically of 251 by early August in NC. Good news this model projected 1000s upon 1000s in NC just a few weeks ago. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/north-carolina

From the IHME 

 

According to this, looks like NC might be able to partially open the 11th or 18th. 

[Crucial_Infra]

IHME model now predicts earliest each state could start relaxing social distancing, assuming infection rates below 1 per million and robust testing/contact tracing/isolation plans etc. healthdata.org/covid/updates

One again, NC is in great position, but still got a few more weeks to go. 

[elrodvt]

Business Insider: Dr. Fauci throws cold water on conspiracy theory that coronavirus escaped a Chinese lab - Business Insider.
https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-throws-cold-water-conspiracy-theory-coronavirus-escaped-chinese-lab-2020-4

This guy Cotton is especially scary to me because he sometimes actually comes across as intelligent. 

[Urban Cowboy]

PSA: This is a public forum. Members will have opposing views. That is okay!

 

Too often, we affirm our thoughts and stances on a subject  by surrounding ourselves with people, news, opinions, facts, and statistics that reinforce our own worldview. In this case, some people seem to think they can convince others that they’re wrong. What’s the point? Everyone thinks they’re on the right side of history. This thread has devolved from debate and discussion to finger pointing and good old fashioned blocking.

 

I disagree with both Dale and Gman in the context of this thread. But I appreciate their contributions to this forum, and do not plan to “block” them. Why? because I think it’s valuable to read differing views. Because of the last few pages, it has me thinking about “what is an acceptable risk?” and who would define it? Very stimulating topics if discussed openly and respectfully.

 

Reopening is a fascinating, divisive, scary, and exciting topic depending on who you ask. None of us are in the drivers seat but the discussion is interesting because it impacts politics, government, social structures, civil liberties, business, etc. Do I think Jacksonville reopening their beaches is a good idea? No - I think it’s too early and reckless. But a lot of people think it is a step forward, or they view it as an acceptable risk, or they take the libertarian approach.

 

I just encourage a little more civility and understanding of the other side, if you can spare it. This is a wonderful online community and I think it’s better and stronger for having members from South Carolina. @gman430  

[UrbanCharlotte]

12 minutes ago, Urban Cowboy said:

PSA: This is a public forum. Members will have opposing views. That is okay!

 

Too often, we affirm our thoughts and stances on a subject  by surrounding ourselves with people, news, opinions, facts, and statistics that reinforce our own worldview. In this case, some people seem to think they can convince others that they’re wrong. What’s the point? Everyone thinks they’re on the right side of history. This thread has devolved from debate and discussion to finger pointing and good old fashioned blocking.

 

I disagree with both Dale and Gman in the context of this thread. But I appreciate their contributions to this forum, and do not plan to “block” them. Why? because I think it’s valuable to read differing views. Because of the last few pages, it has me thinking about “what is an acceptable risk?” and who would define it? Very stimulating topics if discussed openly and respectfully.

 

Reopening is a fascinating, divisive, scary, and exciting topic depending on who you ask. None of us are in the drivers seat but the discussion is interesting because it impacts politics, government, social structures, civil liberties, business, etc. Do I think Jacksonville reopening their beaches is a good idea? No - I think it’s too early and reckless. But a lot of people think it is a step forward, or they view it as an acceptable risk, or they take the libertarian approach.

 

I just encourage a little more civility and understanding of the other side, if you can spare it. This is a wonderful online community and I think it’s better and stronger for having members from South Carolina. @gman430  

Amen. Thank you Urban Cowboy. 

[TCLT]

41 minutes ago, Urban Cowboy said:

PSA: This is a public forum. Members will have opposing views. That is okay!

This is absolutely true, but it doesn't apply to gman or Dale. gman has spent dozens of pages repeating that this is just the flu (it isn't) and that his constitutional rights are being infringed (they aren't) with nothing of substance to back up the claims and then using those false claims as a reason why we shouldn't have a lockdown. Dale makes jokes about at risk people dying. Neither one of them have engaged in anything that can be reasonably defined as debate. And neither of them have contributed anything of value to this discussion.

[Crucial_Infra]

1 hour ago, UrbanCharlotte said:

Because of the last few pages, it has me thinking about “what is an acceptable risk?” and who would define it? Very stimulating topics if discussed openly and respectfully.

Please scroll back through the last few pages and see if gman  or dale contributed one iota to any of the thoughtful discussion of acceptable risk. I agree, we should celebrate opposing views but what we’ve witnessed here has been consistent bad faith trolling, not just a difference of opinion. 

[urbanlover568]

The thing with all of this, is that it's not uniform. PA and TX are reopening and opening the opportunity for this virus to spread while other states are still in containment mode. When those other states line NC reopen they will be accepting those states residents who opened earlier and likely has the virus Cases will again spike. Same thing is happening with China where most of their new cases are imported.

This should have been done uniformly.  I think this will fail. We will have a second wave. The magnitude of it nobody knows.

Worst thing is that Trump knew since November and didn't properly equip hospitals. All of this could have been avoided and most of the 31,456 US Citizens who have died so far would still be alive today through quick and proper action. 

 

Sorry to be a downer, but this is the reality. No sugar coating the failures of leadership. 

[urbanlover568]

One third of participants in Massachusetts study tested positive for coronavirus

https://www.foxnews.com/science/third-blood-samples-massachusetts-study-coronavirus

[nicholas]

Probably won't get taken seriously since it's not being reported by American mainstream media, but no harm in posting anyway...

"The Wuhan Institute of Virology undertook coronavirus experiments on mammals captured more than 1,000 miles away in Yunnan which were funded by a $3.7 million grant from the US government."

"Sequencing of the Covid-19 genome has traced it to bats found in Yunnan's caves."

"According to documents obtained by The Mail on Sunday, scientists there experimented on bats as part of a project funded by the US National Institutes of Health, which continues to licence the Wuhan laboratory to receive American money for experiments."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211291/U-S-government-gave-3-7million-grant-Wuhan-lab-experimented-coronavirus-source-bats.html

If true, why is the US funneling money to China to study this?  Just a few weeks ago, China reminded us that they are not be trusted after blatantly misreporting Covid-19 case numbers.  I also find it strange that the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is a part of the NIH, is run by Dr. Fauci.

Edited April 18, 2020 by nicholas

[urbanlover568]

5 minutes ago, nicholas said:

Probably won't get taken seriously since it's not being reported by American mainstream media, but no harm in posting anyway...

"The Wuhan Institute of Virology undertook coronavirus experiments on mammals captured more than 1,000 miles away in Yunnan which were funded by a $3.7 million grant from the US government."

"Sequencing of the Covid-19 genome has traced it to bats found in Yunnan's caves."

"According to documents obtained by The Mail on Sunday, scientists there experimented on bats as part of a project funded by the US National Institutes of Health, which continues to licence the Wuhan laboratory to receive American money for experiments."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211291/U-S-government-gave-3-7million-grant-Wuhan-lab-experimented-coronavirus-source-bats.html

If true, why is the US funneling money to China to study this?  Just a few weeks ago, China reminded us that they are not be trusted after blatantly misreporting Covid-19 case numbers.  I also find it strange that the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is a part of the NIH, is run by Dr. Fauci.

Another deep state conspiracy theory. Best be kept for a Inforwars or q-anon thread. 

Quote

"We do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible"

https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-throws-cold-water-conspiracy-theory-coronavirus-escaped-chinese-lab-2020-4

[nicholas]

3 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

Another deep state conspiracy theory. Best be kept for a Inforwars or q-anon thread. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-throws-cold-water-conspiracy-theory-coronavirus-escaped-chinese-lab-2020-4

Obviously Fauci is going to reject anything against the mainstream narrative when the organization where he is a director at has been funneling money to China.

[urbanlover568]

Just now, nicholas said:

Obviously Fauci is going to reject anything against the mainstream narrative when the organization where he is a director at has been funneling money to China.

LOL Not going to argue with a deep state conspiracy theorist with zero concrete proof.  

[kermit]

An interesting map from today’s NYT. Other than NYC, hotspots are largely in very low density places. Density is playing a small (if any) role in transmission.
 

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by kermit

[Richhamleigh, DC]

It's worth repeating...estimated deaths are not falling because the virus is any less virulent.  Estimates are falling because states like North Carolina are taking common sense steps to prevent deaths.  It's also worth noting that NC adds a 1000 new cases every 3 days or so.  The pace of new cases isn't slowing and has been steadily increasing.  

 

14 minutes ago, kermit said:

An interesting map from today’s NYT. Other than NYC, hotspots are largely in very low density places. Density is playing a small (if any) role in transmission.
 

 

Sweden proves your point.  The map is flawed?  Granville County has 17 cases per thousand residents?  On this map, it look like 1-2 per thousand?

On 4/15/2020 at 4:15 PM, urbanlover568 said:

Scary part was then the reporter asked the protester  "Do you think cases will go up because of this rally?" and protester said "Probably"  #stupid

Regarding small business owners....  Walmart, Dominos, Amazon, Harris Teeter, Costco, etc.. are all hiring big numbers of temporary workers. If a small business owners are so desparate, "get a job".  If the Betsy Devoss-Heritage Foundation sponsored Reopeners are struggling...they too should "get a job".   Or are these job below them?   There are a lot of small businesses finding new and creative ways to connect with customers.  If a small business owner didn't plan for crisis we are supposed to out our lives on line because they are incompetent?

Edited April 18, 2020 by Phillydog

[Richhamleigh, DC]

How a country led by an adult manages a crisis,

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/world/europe/with-broad-random-tests-for-antibodies-germany-seeks-path-out-of-lockdown.html

He would be helping to further the science that would ultimately allow for a controlled lifting of social and economic restrictions and save lives.

“Of course I said yes,” said Mr. Germann, a 41-year-old project manager at a media company. “I want to help. This is a collective crisis. The government is doing what it can. Everyone needs to do their bit.”

Edited April 18, 2020 by Phillydog

[nicholas]

24 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

LOL Not going to argue with a deep state conspiracy theorist with zero concrete proof.  

You can leave out the personal attacks.  I literally questioned the report when I posted it.  My last response was supposed to be sarcastic, apparently it didn't come across that way though.

You are more than free to reject anything I post that doesn't come from a news source you "approve" of.  However, it is obvious that things like coronaviruses are very complex, and can't really be verified by the average person.  I am 100% sure that I'm not the only one who doesn't completely understand everything about the genetics of Covid-19, or how similar they are to a bat, or how they mutate, or what they mutate into, or whatever, and thus am not going to immediately accept what one politically-powerful person says.

[urbanlover568]

21 minutes ago, nicholas said:

You can leave out the personal attacks.  I literally questioned the report when I posted it.  My last response was supposed to be sarcastic, apparently it didn't come across that way though.

You are more than free to reject anything I post that doesn't come from a news source you "approve" of.  However, it is obvious that things like coronaviruses are very complex, and can't really be verified by the average person.  I am 100% sure that I'm not the only one who doesn't completely understand everything about the genetics of Covid-19, or how similar they are to a bat, or how they mutate, or what they mutate into, or whatever, and thus am not going to immediately accept what one politically-powerful person says.

If it was sarcastic, you wouldn't have defended the article after LMAO #Qanon #GayFrogs 

Edited April 18, 2020 by urbanlover568

[Crucial_Infra]

Regarding the theory that this novel coronavirus might have accidentally leaked from a lab in Wuhan, I’m not dismissing it yet. No, we don’t have evidence (yet), but the fact that that particular lab has had safety lapses in the past means it’s not unreasonable to investigate the possibility. Now, do I believe they were developing this virus as some super weapon? No, that’s absurd and even Tom Cotton has backed off his original assertion. But in the end, the way it started has no effect on how we fight it. We’ve got a raging fire that needs to be extinguished. Whether it was started by kids playing with matches or by a natural lightning strike isn’t the main concern at the moment. 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Crucial_Infra

[videtur quam contuor]

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/17/21225916/coronavirus-in-germany-angela-merkel-lifting-lockdown

Imagine you live in a country with a leader who has a reasonable  science background. Not requiring a PhD in Physics, as she has, just a solid understanding of statistics, consequences. No political points to score, no denialism, no history of playing to the wild Yahoo. Then that leader would explain the situation in nearly such terms as these. Clear, understandable, unemotional.