The Coronavirus thread

[KJHburg]

Burlington NC based LabCorp wins FDA approval at home test kit.

https://www.wraltechwire.com/2020/04/21/labcorp-receives-fda-approval-to-sell-at-home-covid-19-test/

[urbanlover568]

R.I.P. John  

https://www.the-sun.com/news/710984/john-mcdaniel-killed-coronavirus-dismissing-political-ploy/

[KJHburg]

a story of recovery and no hospitalization for a Charlotte area woman in her 40s with the virus and her sister is director of Internal Medicine at Atrium.   I am getting almost daily emails from Atrium Health too as my primary care doctor is affliated with them. 

https://atriumhealth.org/dailydose/2020/04/17/this-can-happen-to-me-too-a-healthy-mothers-covid19-recovery-story

[Matthew.Brendan]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/21/coronavirus-covid-toes-may-symptom-covid-19-young-people/2994930001/

[urbanlover568]

Meat shortage fears deepen as Tyson Foods closes its largest pork plant

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/22/tyson-waterloo-meat-shortage-coronavirus/

[rancenc]

12 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

Meat shortage fears deepen as Tyson Foods closes its largest pork plant

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/22/tyson-waterloo-meat-shortage-coronavirus/

Toilet paper and now bacon and sausage shortages!!

[tozmervo]

BRB, hoarding deep freezers

[nicholas]

Interesting approach in Sweden.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

[urbanlover568]

The former head of the federal office that will be at the forefront of developing a cure for COVID-19 said he was forced out after he prioritized science instead of promoting unproven treatments.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494190-doctor-says-he-was-removed-from-federal-post-after-opposing-funding-for

8 minutes ago, nicholas said:

Interesting approach in Sweden.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

i.e. “lots of grandparents” are willing to sacrifice themselves for the cause." Dan Patrick

[KJHburg]

NC based LabCorp up to 50,000 antibody tests a day

https://www.bizjournals.com/triad/news/2020/04/22/labcorp-up-to-50-000-covid-19-antibody-tests-per.html

[urbanlover568]

4 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

NC based LabCorp up to 50,000 antibody tests a day

https://www.bizjournals.com/triad/news/2020/04/22/labcorp-up-to-50-000-covid-19-antibody-tests-per.html

That's awesome! Great news. 

[Richhamleigh, DC]

Deadliest day yet in North Carolina. 

2 hours ago, nicholas said:

Interesting approach in Sweden.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

Sweden population:  10.23 million

There are 13,451 cases  of Covid-19 in Sweden; Sweden has had 1333 deaths.   Sweden had 14 cases on March 5.

NC population:  10.49 million

There are 5,589 cases of Covid-19 in North Carolina; NC has had 155 deaths.  NC had 2 cases on March 5.

(Our economies are about the same size too -- NC GDP = 580 billion; Sweden GDP = 600 billion, by the way)

Sweden has two metropolitan areas with more than 1 million people.  NC has 3.  Sweden is a rural country with only 62 people per square mile compared to NC which has 213 per square mile (so much for the notion that rural = safe).

The busiest airport in Sweden transited about 23 million passengers in 2019

The busiest airport in North Carolina transited about 24 million passengers in 2019

Sweden has just two land borders, Norway and Finland - both of which implemented  strict rules about social distancing and sheltering in place.   Norway has 6840 cases and has had 165 deaths.  Finland has had 3369 cases and 75 deaths.  

Norway, like other European countries that took effective steps to halt the virus, closed it's national borders (North Carolina did not close its borders).

Norway's response: https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/short_news/norway-update-covid-19/

Norway with 1/2 the population of Sweden, has conducted 2x the number of tests (128K in Norway vs. 54K in Sweden).  

Add to all of this that Sweden (like most Europe nations) are remarkably homogeneous.  Homogeneity gives people a greater sense of common purpose making conformity more common; in diverse societies like the US conformity of purpose is harder to reach except in times of extreme crisis, typically war like after Pearl Harbor and 9/11.  (There are many, but here's a study from Duke comparing homogeneous vs diverse groups:  https://socialequity.duke.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Mere-Membership-in-Racially-Diverse-Groups-Reduces-Conformity.pdf  

I wouldn't hold Sweden up as a model as an effective response to Covid-19.

[urbanlover568]

President Trump criticizes Georgia's Governor Brian Kemp for reopening economy too fast.   

 

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494231-trump-i-disagree-strongly-over-ga-governors-decision-to-reopen-economy

[Crucial_Infra]

New IHME model update: US deaths revised upwards to 67,641 and NC deaths revised upwards to 310. But good news is NC will be among the first wave of states to re-open. Look at the other states in dark green: all are isolated and/or rural. Only NC is a large industrial state with multiple large MSA’s and yet we’re looking great (as I predicted we would several weeks ago :-)) LINK 

Only 2.5 weeks to go. Stay the course!

Edited April 23, 2020 by Crucial_Infra

[urbanlover568]

6 minutes ago, Crucial_Infra said:

New IHME model update: US deaths revised upwards to 66,000. NC deaths revised upwards to 310. But good news is NC will be among the first wave of states to re-open. Look at the other states in dark green: all are isolated and/or rural. Only NC is a large industrial state with multiple large MSA’s and yet we’re looking great (as I predicted we would several weeks ago :-)) LINK 

Only 2.5 weeks to go. Stay the course!

I'm really proud of NC. They have done a terrific job with preparation and execution. I hope everyone else will see that. I think we are still not past the curve. 

[nicholas]

"New autopsy results show two Californians died of novel coronavirus in early and mid-February -- up to three weeks before the previously known first US death from the virus.

Northern California's Santa Clara County announced the autopsy results Tuesday. The two were a 57-year-old woman who died in her home in the county February 6, and a 69-year-old man who died at home in the same county on February 17, officials said.

The two in California had no "significant travel history" that would have exposed them to the virus, Dr. Sara Cody, the county's chief medical officer, told reporters Wednesday in San Jose.

The United States' previously understood first coronavirus death happened on February 29 in Kirkland, Washington."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html

[Richhamleigh, DC]

9 hours ago, Crucial_Infra said:

New IHME model update: US deaths revised upwards to 67,641 and NC deaths revised upwards to 310. But good news is NC will be among the first wave of states to re-open. Look at the other states in dark green: all are isolated and/or rural. Only NC is a large industrial state with multiple large MSA’s and yet we’re looking great (as I predicted we would several weeks ago :-)) LINK 

Only 2.5 weeks to go. Stay the course!

 

9 hours ago, urbanlover568 said:

I'm really proud of NC. They have done a terrific job with preparation and execution. I hope everyone else will see that. I think we are still not past the curve. 

Thank Governor Cooper, local and county governments, and the responsible citizens of North Carolina.  Howeverz given the continued rise in cases and deaths, I think May 15 is the earliest to start reopening slowly.  Consider how quickly this virus spreads when dont have precautions.  Reopen very slowly to be able to detect increaes, and be prepared to shutdown again .

[tozmervo]

Cooper has announced an extension of the stay-at-home order to May 8. 

Most of the data trends are generally leveling out, and they are watching for those data lines to start declining to start reopening things. The red X's below are getting very close to trending in the good direction. 

[nicholas]

Apparently in late January/early February, two Durham schools closed temporarily due to widespread illness??   

https://www.wral.com/with-100-students-and-teachers-sick-a-durham-high-school-closes-due-to-illness/18918640/

https://www.wral.com/second-durham-school-closes-due-to-spread-of-illness/18931031/

[KJHburg]

From the Charlotte Ledger on causes of deaths in NC most recent figures to things in perspective.

Here are the leading causes of death in North Carolina for 2017, the most recent year available, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention:

• Cancer, 19,474 deaths

• Heart disease, 18,808 deaths

• Accidents, 5,985 deaths

• Chronic lower respiratory diseases, 5,540 deaths

• Stroke, 5,098 deaths

• Alzheimer’s disease, 4,289 deaths

• Diabetes, 2,903 deaths

• Flu/pneumonia, 2,076 deaths

• Kidney disease, 2,040 deaths

• Suicide, 1,521 deaths

Current NC 2020 Covid 19 deaths are 250 or so 

[kermit]

23 hours ago, KJHburg said:

From the Charlotte Ledger on causes of deaths in NC most recent figures to things in perspective.

Here are the leading causes of death in North Carolina for 2017, the most recent year available, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention:

• Cancer, 19,474 deaths

• Heart disease, 18,808 deaths

• Accidents, 5,985 deaths

• Chronic lower respiratory diseases, 5,540 deaths

• Stroke, 5,098 deaths

• Alzheimer’s disease, 4,289 deaths

• Diabetes, 2,903 deaths

• Flu/pneumonia, 2,076 deaths

• Kidney disease, 2,040 deaths

• Suicide, 1,521 deaths

Current NC 2020 Covid 19 deaths are 250 or so 

I appreciate your desire for optimism, and I am grateful for it on many occasions.  However, there are a couple of misleading things about these numbers

1) the deaths from other causes are annual, COVID has only been with us for two months. Annualized COVID deaths are currently running at a rate of 1,500 per year in NC (roughly 125 per month at the current rate). Georgia (which is basically the same size as NC)  is running at roughly a 5,000 deaths per year (420 per month) pace at the moment.

2) NC is quite fortunate with our low death rate (which no one fully understands why its so low). Nationally COVID is now the leading cause of death, it exceeds both cancer and heart disease (chart below is for national daily death figures as of April 14). 

3) our lack of testing leads to undercounting deaths from COVID, several samples indicate that actual death tolls may be double what is being reported at the moment. 

 

Edited April 25, 2020 by kermit

[Madison Parkitect]

18 hours ago, nicholas said:

Apparently in late January/early February, two Durham schools closed temporarily due to widespread illness??   

https://www.wral.com/with-100-students-and-teachers-sick-a-durham-high-school-closes-due-to-illness/18918640/

https://www.wral.com/second-durham-school-closes-due-to-spread-of-illness/18931031/

There are now confirmed cases of community spread in California in early February, and I'm convinced that in January when it seemed like everyone in Charlotte was coming down with "unknown respiratory illness" or diagnosed with RSV it was actually COVID-19.

[nicholas]

44 minutes ago, Madison Parkitect said:

There are now confirmed cases of community spread in California in early February, and I'm convinced that in January when it seemed like everyone in Charlotte was coming down with "unknown respiratory illness" or diagnosed with RSV it was actually COVID-19.

I think this is a real possibility, but we probably won't know until antibody testing becomes widespread.  I had something the very first week of February.  Not sure what it was, but initially I had a really bad headache, and later that day my throat began getting really sore, started having borderline painful coughing (felt like I couldn't ever cough up whatever was irritating my throat), came down with a fever, and started having chills.  The headache, fever, and chills went away about four days later, but I had a lingering cough for about two weeks.  I hardly ever get sick - literally maybe once a year, usually just a mild cold - but this was the worst I have been sick in as long as I can remember.  My brother was also sick with many of the same symptoms at the end of January (he and my mom were in Charlotte for several days, so I may have gotten whatever he had), but I don't think it hit him quite as hard.

Edited April 24, 2020 by nicholas

[urbanlover568]

3 hours ago, KJHburg said:

From the Charlotte Ledger on causes of deaths in NC most recent figures to things in perspective.

Here are the leading causes of death in North Carolina for 2017, the most recent year available, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention:

• Cancer, 19,474 deaths

• Heart disease, 18,808 deaths

• Accidents, 5,985 deaths

• Chronic lower respiratory diseases, 5,540 deaths

• Stroke, 5,098 deaths

• Alzheimer’s disease, 4,289 deaths

• Diabetes, 2,903 deaths

• Flu/pneumonia, 2,076 deaths

• Kidney disease, 2,040 deaths

• Suicide, 1,521 deaths

Current NC 2020 Covid 19 deaths are 250 or so 

Another simpleton statement.  

[KJHburg]

Not a simpleton as stated about  just reporting the facts on deaths in NCand the IHME estimates show NC deaths  in the mid 300s by august 4 so I am not sure how we are going to have 1500 in NC by years end.  NC deaths from Corvid 19 are at 281 today and fully half the deaths are just in 2 statesNY and NJ which represent 28 Million residents out of the 328 Million in the USA.   Look at the NC per capita death rate compared to NY or NJ or even CT. 

There seems to be no view expressed but the worse case scenario on this thread.  I remember just a few weeks ago some were saying MILLIONs of deaths in the USA and the estimates have kept coming down.