The Coronavirus thread

[Richhamleigh, DC]

1 hour ago, KJHburg said:

Not a simpleton as stated about  just reporting the facts on deaths in NCand the IHME estimates show NC deaths  in the mid 300s by august 4 so I am not sure how we are going to have 1500 in NC by years end.  NC deaths from Corvid 19 are at 281 today and fully half the deaths are just in 2 statesNY and NJ which represent 28 Million residents out of the 328 Million in the USA.   Look at the NC per capita death rate compared to NY or NJ or even CT. 

There seems to be no view expressed but the worse case scenario on this thread.  I remember just a few weeks ago some were saying MILLIONs of deaths in the USA and the estimates have kept coming down.  

They've been coming down because  we shut down.  The early estimates were based on what would happen if we didn't shut down.  

Influenza and pneumonia were the cause of 55,672 deaths in the US in 2017 (CDC).   That's 12 months .  We've had 52,234 deaths (that we know of) in 6 weeks.  

 

[urbanlover568]

3 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Not a simpleton as stated about  just reporting the facts on deaths in NCand the IHME estimates show NC deaths  in the mid 300s by august 4 so I am not sure how we are going to have 1500 in NC by years end.  NC deaths from Corvid 19 are at 281 today and fully half the deaths are just in 2 statesNY and NJ which represent 28 Million residents out of the 328 Million in the USA.   Look at the NC per capita death rate compared to NY or NJ or even CT. 

There seems to be no view expressed but the worse case scenario on this thread.  I remember just a few weeks ago some were saying MILLIONs of deaths in the USA and the estimates have kept coming down.  

You are downplaying the pandemic and have a misunderstanding of statistics and modeling. 

 

Please stop this disinformation campaign. 

[KJHburg]

8 hours ago, urbanlover568 said:

You are downplaying the pandemic and have a misunderstanding of statistics and modeling. 

 

Please stop this disinformation campaign. 

No  I am NOT you are only allowing one line of thinking on this thread which is one of maximum death and fear. 

This is the modeling used by Dr Birx. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

and what is your qualificiations to be an expert on infection modeling?  I am just reading information as you are from trusted sources.  

Edited April 25, 2020 by KJHburg

[urbanlover568]

2 hours ago, KJHburg said:

No  I am NOT you are only allowing one line of thinking on this thread which is one of maximum death and fear. 

This is the modeling used by Dr Birx. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

and what is your qualificiations to be an expert on infection modeling?  I am just reading information as you are from trusted sources.  

This is why it should be mandated to take calculus based statistics. People get so hung up on a number and have zero understanding of modeling and don't even know what sigma is. 

Dr. Birx warns of 'very acute second wave' of coronavirus infections if social distancing measures are relaxed

https://www.businessinsider.com/birx-warns-of-very-acute-second-wave-of-coronavirus-infections-2020-4

 

Waiting on the "internet certified" statisticians to respond with another anecdotal piece. 

 

[urbanlover568]

3 hours ago, KJHburg said:

No  I am NOT you are only allowing one line of thinking on this thread which is one of maximum death and fear. 

And another thing, i'm not a moderator. I don't know where you get off saying i'm "allowing" things.

You are bringing up the same argument that it's not as bad as the flu, which is dangerous. COVID19 has a higher mortality than seasonal flu and does not have a vaccine. 

[QCxpat]

5 hours ago, KJHburg said:

No  I am NOT you are only allowing one line of thinking on this thread which is one of maximum death and fear. 

This is the modeling used by Dr Birx. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

and what is your qualificiations to be an expert on infection modeling?  I am just reading information as you are from trusted sources.  

 

2 hours ago, urbanlover568 said:

And another thing, i'm not a moderator. I don't know where you get off saying i'm "allowing" things.

You are bringing up the same argument that it's not as bad as the flu, which is dangerous. COVID19 has a higher mortality than seasonal flu and does not have a vaccine. 

@urbanlover568   Please exercise some self-restraint and  demonstrate a sense of personal decency, and quit trolling other UP members on this site whose views differ from yours regarding the coronavirus. 

You're not the Censor-in-Chief.   Thank you.

Edited April 25, 2020 by QCxpat

[urbanlover568]

Just now, QCxpat said:

 

@urbanlover568   Please exercise some self-restraint and a sense of personal decency, and quite trolling other UP members on this site whose views differ from yours regarding the coronavirus. 

You're not the Censor-in-Chief.   Thank you.

I take offence when posters post disinformation.

 

I can not live with myself if someone reads a post on here about the virus being less deadly than the flu and it's all honky dory and that person goes out into the public and doesn't practice social distancing or doesn't wear protective equipment and gets my family ill and they die from COVID19.

 

This is a real deadly illness and should be taken seriously. I'm not saying lock-downs should last. Stores and restaurants  should open and have limits on capacity and social distancing measures.  I think the private sector can adapt to this. 

[11 HouseBZ]

UL568, your passion for this is palpable. I dig it. But you attack and name call a lot. At times you read way further into another person's comments than they may mean. For instance when I was advocating for the occasional positive story, you interpreted it as spreading disinformation and thinking people dying wasn't serious. I have no hard feelings for you, you're passionate for this. 

How you offer information is just as important as the information given. Might I suggest that you leave the insults behind. I guarantee you that whatever you're trying to say will have much further reach. KJHburg was not wrong when quoting stats. You and others correctly made sure to point out the difference in the timelines of those states, weeks vs months vs years and how the lockdown changed it for the better. But your responses differ in that a lot of the times you're attacking the person as well.

Now point is not argue anyones point over the other. My point is how we argue those points. We all complain about the Twitter, Facebook, observer comment sections of the world. I don't want this forum to become those places. By all means argue your points,  but we're all adults here, leave the name calling on the schoolyard. 

[urbanlover568]

Just now, 11 HouseBZ said:

UL568, your passion for this is palpable. I dig it. But you attack and name call a lot. At times you read way further into another person's comments than they may mean. For instance when I was advocating for the occasional positive story, you interpreted it as spreading disinformation and thinking people dying wasn't serious. I have no hard feelings for you, you're passionate for this. 

How you offer information is just as important as the information given. Might I suggest that you leave the insults behind. I guarantee you that whatever you're trying to say will have much further reach. KJHburg was not wrong when quoting stats. You and others correctly made sure to point out the difference in the timelines of those states, weeks vs months vs years and how the lockdown changed it for the better. But your responses differ in that a lot of the times you're attacking the person as well.

Now point is not argue anyones point over the other. My point is how we argue those points. We all complain about the Twitter, Facebook, observer comment sections of the world. I don't want this forum to become those places. By all means argue your points,  but we're all adults here, leave the name calling on the schoolyard. 

Again, 

9 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

I take offence when posters post disinformation.

 

I can not live with myself if someone reads a post on here about the virus being less deadly than the flu and it's all honky dory and that person goes out into the public and doesn't practice social distancing or doesn't wear protective equipment and gets my family ill and they die from COVID19.

 

This is a real deadly illness and should be taken seriously. I'm not saying lock-downs should last. Stores and restaurants  should open and have limits on capacity and social distancing measures.  I think the private sector can adapt to this. 

 

[11 HouseBZ]

Just now, urbanlover568 said:

Again, 

 

That's why you correct when neccessary, I'm purely advocating for how you do that correcting. Your points only go half as far when delivered with malice. 

[urbanlover568]

3 minutes ago, 11 HouseBZ said:

That's why you correct when neccessary, I'm purely advocating for how you do that correcting. Your points only go half as far when delivered with malice. 

Malice? I was correcting the poster's disinformation. Poster gave a outdated figure and compared it with annual totals. That's disinformation. Then said the models were bogus. 

[11 HouseBZ]

6 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

Malice? I was correcting the poster's disinformation. Poster gave a outdated figure and compared it with annual totals. That's disinformation. Then said the models were bogus. 

Yes, I interpreted the name calling as malice. You're correct to make sure people know that 2 months of C19 deaths is not equal to a yearly total of something else. It's much more. 

Edited April 25, 2020 by 11 HouseBZ

[urbanlover568]

Just now, 11 HouseBZ said:

Yes, I interpreted the name calling as malice. You're correct to make sure people know that 2 months of C19 deaths is not the equal to a yearly total of something else. 

Where did I name call? It was a simpleton post which was disinformation and I stand by that. 

[11 HouseBZ]

3 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

Where did I name call? It was a simpleton post which was disinformation and I stand by that. 

I'll use this post as an example. I stand by you correcting disinformation. 

[urbanlover568]

10 minutes ago, 11 HouseBZ said:

I'll use this post as an example. I stand by you correcting disinformation. 

It was a simpleton/foolish post and I stand by it. That's not name calling, that's calling a post filled with disinformation for what it is. 

@11 HouseBZ 

You can PM me if you want to discuss further. I'm not going OT on this thread. 

Edited April 25, 2020 by urbanlover568

[11 HouseBZ]

Fair enough, I guess then I disagree with how you're using simpleton. I'm no English major by any means but usually simpleton refers to just a foolish person. By saying simpleton post, I saw that as a "foolish man's post". Anybody good in the English? 

P.S. I really would like to know the answer of the use of simpleton. I really don't know, my googling ain't helping. 

Edited April 25, 2020 by 11 HouseBZ

[urbanlover568]

2 minutes ago, 11 HouseBZ said:

Fair enough, I guess then I disagree with how you're using simpleton. I'm no English major by any means but usually simpleton refers to just a foolish person. By saying simpleton post, I saw that as a "foolish man's post". Anybody good in the English? 

I'm not going to debate this further. I'm taking a UP break for awhile.

Seeing posts on here with such disinformation scares and stresses me out. I hope everyone here gets through this and we all come out of this pandemic better than when we came into it economically and health wise.

Take care UPers! 

[Richhamleigh, DC]

NC projection moved forward slightly, by one week.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Phillydog

[losamis]

The COVID-19 pandemic dealt one of the heaviest blows in human history and turned our lives upside down.  People all over the world are in shock.  The world faced the destruction of jobs, the destruction of friendships. You look at how many people have lost their jobs, incomes, savings, faced with depression.  Families and the fates of people are crumbling. The hardest thing about the health care system. Now all the forces of doctors are directed to the treatment of patients with coronavirus. But there are those who suffer from other diseases. The immunity of such people is weak. And it's hard for them to get medical treatment.  In the face of the pandemic, drug rehabilitation centres have also changed their work systems and are working to adapt to the new reality of the COVID-19 pandemic   https://addictionresource.com/treatment/addiction-during-covid-19-outbreak/   . Rehabilitation facilities may now provide the safest environment for people with SUD as they take extra precautions to minimize the risk of their patients' coronavirus infection indoors. 

This is a very difficult period. And no one knows how this is going to end. 

[nicholas]

Is testing (finally) ramping up in NC?  WRAL's 8am report this morning noted that there were over 1,000 confirmed new cases just in the past 72 hrs, and at that time we were just under 9,000 total confirmed cases.  By about 11:30am (only three and a half hours later) we crossed the 9,200 mark.

[kermit]

36 minutes ago, nicholas said:

Is testing (finally) ramping up in NC?  WRAL's 8am report this morning noted that there were over 1,000 confirmed new cases just in the past 72 hrs, and at that time we were just under 9,000 total confirmed cases.  By about 11:30am (only three and a half hours later) we crossed the 9,200 mark.

Be cautious with recent numbers. There was a coding error and a large batch of test results sent to the state that were incorrectly coded as positives rather than properly coded as total tests administered. Corrections have been made to official figures, but the incorrect news is still floating around.

Quote

The N.C. Department of Health and Human Services reported 288 new cases Sunday morning after reporting 490 the day before, the state’s largest single-day increase.

The state originally reported 571 new cases on Saturday, but a reporting error inflated the number, officials said Sunday. Every test received form Vidant Health on Saturday was incorrectly counted as a positive test.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article242297136.html

Edited April 27, 2020 by kermit

[Crucial_Infra]

New IHME projection out: US deaths revised upward once again to 74,073 and NC deaths revised upward to 370. These projections are only for deaths occurring by August 4th.

Edited April 28, 2020 by Crucial_Infra

[Crucial_Infra]

^ Some might look at those revisions as bad news and yeah it’s not great but if the IHME projections are correct, they see virtually no further deaths within just 8 weeks. That would be remarkable. I’m skeptical but I hope they’re right. We really might be able to have a (new) normal summer. A three month pause will have been very painful but never did I think this virus could potentially be defeated within such a short time. Fingers crossed. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Crucial_Infra

[kermit]

 

[LKN704]

Are they performing COVID-19 IgG/IgM antibody tests in NC?

I called my doctor last week for an unrelated reason, and I mentioned to her that I more than likely had COVID-19. She said she would order the test and I could come in sometime this week and receive it. She then emailed me yesterday that the DC government has decided not to launch testing yet because they are unsure of its accuracy, and she was just going to mark my file that I had COVID-19.

As for the symptoms, it was quite strange. I started to have body aches when I got back to DC from a trip to Charlotte. I dismissed it, because I had quite a lot of bags and I remember lifting my luggage off the carousel a funny way. Over the next two days, I would get horrible back aches during the night, and would be extremely hot. I woke up one night in pain and my body was soaked in sweat. On the third day, I woke up in immense body pain (this time all over, EVERY part of my body hurt, even my finger nails) and an elevated temperature. My temperature never went above 100 degrees. The fourth day, I developed a slight dry cough. The strange thing is, by the fifth day, I felt fine. I also never "felt sick" or had malaise like symptoms at any time. I was still hungry and wasn't necessarily more tired so all I could do was lie in pain. On the 8th day, I am thinking that it wasn't COVID-19 and was probably just a bug given how quick it dissipated. I had a friend over at my house for dinner that night as DC wasn't under any stay at home order yet. A couple of days later that friend also got sick. At dinner that night, I noticed I couldn't smell or taste anything, despite my nose not being congested. I dismissed it as nothing (this was before it was listed as a symptom), but it the loss of smell/taste lasted for a good 7 days or so. Overall, it took a good 2 weeks to be symptom free. I have honestly been sicker in my life (Really bad flu, mono, etc) but the symptoms were just odd.