The Coronavirus thread

[UrbanCharlotte]

41 minutes ago, LKN704 said:

Are they performing COVID-19 IgG/IgM antibody tests in NC?

I called my doctor last week for an unrelated reason, and I mentioned to her that I more than likely had COVID-19. She said she would order the test and I could come in sometime this week and receive it. She then emailed me yesterday that the DC government has decided not to launch testing yet because they are unsure of its accuracy, and she was just going to mark my file that I had COVID-19.

As for the symptoms, it was quite strange. I started to have body aches when I got back to DC from a trip to Charlotte. I dismissed it, because I had quite a lot of bags and I remember lifting my luggage off the carousel a funny way. Over the next two days, I would get horrible back aches during the night, and would be extremely hot. I woke up one night in pain and my body was soaked in sweat. On the third day, I woke up in immense body pain (this time all over, EVERY part of my body hurt, even my finger nails) and an elevated temperature. My temperature never went above 100 degrees. The fourth day, I developed a slight dry cough. The strange thing is, by the fifth day, I felt fine. I also never "felt sick" or had malaise like symptoms at any time. I was still hungry and wasn't necessarily more tired so all I could do was lie in pain. On the 8th day, I am thinking that it wasn't COVID-19 and was probably just a bug given how quick it dissipated. I had a friend over at my house for dinner that night as DC wasn't under any stay at home order yet. A couple of days later that friend also got sick. At dinner that night, I noticed I couldn't smell or taste anything, despite my nose not being congested. I dismissed it as nothing (this was before it was listed as a symptom), but it the loss of smell/taste lasted for a good 7 days or so. Overall, it took a good 2 weeks to be symptom free. I have honestly been sicker in my life (Really bad flu, mono, etc) but the symptoms were just odd. 

How long ago was this? Definitely sounds like COVID-19. I believe it is best to take 14+ days after you are symptom free as this is how long it usually takes to develop antibodies. LabCorp here in NC was the first to be approved for the antibody test I believe..

 

LabCorp announced¹ on April 22, 2020, that COVID-19 serological antibody testing was being made more broadly available to hospitals, healthcare organizations, and through its patient service centers, including LabCorp at Walgreens locations.

Serology testing, also known as coronavirus antibody tests, can check for different types of antibodies developed after exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. Those antibodies include: IgG, IgA and IgM. This type of COVID-19 test is for individuals who think they may have previously had COVID-19 and do not currently have symptoms. Note: antibody testing should not be used as the sole basis to diagnose or exclude infection. 

There are also several telehealth providers that offer access to COVID-19 antibody testing without having to go into a doctor’s office or visiting another healthcare provider. LabCorp has provided more information about telemedicine providers that can order tests from LabCorp.

[LKN704]

1 hour ago, UrbanCharlotte said:

How long ago was this? Definitely sounds like COVID-19. I believe it is best to take 14+ days after you are symptom free as this is how long it usually takes to develop antibodies. LabCorp here in NC was the first to be approved for the antibody test I believe..

 

LabCorp announced¹ on April 22, 2020, that COVID-19 serological antibody testing was being made more broadly available to hospitals, healthcare organizations, and through its patient service centers, including LabCorp at Walgreens locations.

Serology testing, also known as coronavirus antibody tests, can check for different types of antibodies developed after exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. Those antibodies include: IgG, IgA and IgM. This type of COVID-19 test is for individuals who think they may have previously had COVID-19 and do not currently have symptoms. Note: antibody testing should not be used as the sole basis to diagnose or exclude infection. 

There are also several telehealth providers that offer access to COVID-19 antibody testing without having to go into a doctor’s office or visiting another healthcare provider. LabCorp has provided more information about telemedicine providers that can order tests from LabCorp.

This was in mid March.

[KJHburg]

Pfizer expects production of a Corvid 19 vaccine by fall and it is most likely to be produced in their Sanford NC plant.

https://www.thestate.com/news/coronavirus/article242351686.html

about the Pfizer plant in Sanford

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer_invests_half_billion_dollars_to_advance_state_of_the_art_gene_therapy_facility_in_sanford_north_carolina

[Crucial_Infra]

Not great news today: North Carolina surpassed the IHME death projection (370) and our hospitalizations made a huge jump to highest level yet.

[Matthew.Brendan]

22 hours ago, Crucial_Infra said:

Not great news today: North Carolina surpassed the IHME death projection (370) and our hospitalizations made a huge jump to highest level yet.

No big deal, get back to work. Actually this has all been way stressful, sounds like a beach trip is in order.

[kermit]

When can we retire the density trope?

 

 

[kermit]

Even more on the cognitive dissonance on density and CV infection rates:

 

 

[CLT2014]

^That graph could also infer that white people are most likely to have white collar jobs living in the trendiest (and thus most dense parts of the city) where they are able to work from home and have everything delivered. Less dense, and thus less expensive parts of Chicago, include the working class black, Hispanic, and white populations that still have to go wipe down seats on a United Airlines jet at O'Hare, scan groceries at Walmart, drive for Uber, deliver packages for Amazon, wipe the floors at the hospital, etc... and are thus coming in contact with more people during their work day. 

[Crucial_Infra]

New IHME model projections revised downward slightly from ~74,000 to ~72,000 US deaths. NC deaths revised upward again to 394 but we’ve already passed that number as of this afternoon....

Honestly, I don’t know what to make of this model anymore. I am not an expert but I think it’s being way too conservative at this point. I know it only measures through Aug but my prediction is we’re gonna be at or above 100k by end of 2020 — especially as they are likely to find more excess deaths that weren’t counted before. Hope I’m wrong.

Edited May 1, 2020 by Crucial_Infra

[videtur quam contuor]

Density was not the driver for infection in China:

https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/urban-density-not-enemy-coronavirus-fight-evidence-china?CID=WBW_AL_BlogNotification_EN_EXT?cid=SHR_BlogSiteShare_EN_EXT?cid=SHR_BlogSiteShare_EN_EXT

[cltheel.sdl]

I think that model is BS.  We're at 62K deaths now and it thinks we'll only have 10K more between now and August?  No way.  We will unfortunately exceed 100K deaths by end of June, maybe earlier.  

[Synopsis101]

It’ll be 70k by the end of next week.

[eastsider]

8 hours ago, kermit said:

When can we retire the density trope?

 

 

Many of those rural states also had not issued any stay at home orders....

[nicholas]

NC has now passed 11k confirmed cases, per WRAL.  We hit 10k just two days ago.  @kermit mentioned earlier this week that there were improperly-reported test results which artificially increased the numbers, but this is about 2k new cases since Monday so are there still reporting errors?  I believe there have been several recent outbreaks at prisons and nursing homes which have undoubtedly driven the numbers higher, but 2k cases in five days seems like a lot.

In some good news, a Knightdale grandmother with Type 2 diabetes who was admitted to UNC Rex Hospital a month ago after testing positive for Covid-19, has recovered and been released from the hospital.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/woman-sees-remarkable-recovery-from-coronavirus/19079516/

[kermit]

6 hours ago, nicholas said:

NC has now passed 11k confirmed cases, per WRAL.  We hit 10k just two days ago.  @kermit mentioned earlier this week that there were improperly-reported test results which artificially increased the numbers, but this is about 2k new cases since Monday so are there still reporting errors? 

No, I believe they have all been resolved, I think they will avoid the same mistake going forward.  We (like all states) do still have a massive undertesting error. The number of tests administered has not substantially increased in a couple of weeks -- so expect that reported cases are 1/3 to 1/20 (FMA numbers) of actual infections. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by kermit

[Crucial_Infra]

2 hours ago, kermit said:

No, I believe they have all been resolved. We (like all states) do still a massive undertesting error. The number of tests administered has not substantially increased in a couple of weeks -- so expect that reported cases are 1/3 to 1/20 (FMA numbers) of actual infections. 

Yep. For me the thing to watch is not total cases but total deaths and more importantly hospitalizations. We’re at an all-time for hospitalizations so we’re not over the hump yet. 

[Dale]

1 hour ago, Crucial_Infra said:

Yep. For me the thing to watch is not total cases but total deaths and more importantly hospitalizations. We’re at an all-time for hospitalizations so we’re not over the hump yet. 

 

1 hour ago, Crucial_Infra said:

Yep. For me the thing to watch is not total cases but total deaths and more importantly hospitalizations. We’re at an all-time for hospitalizations so we’re not over the hump yet. 

We’re WAY past the hump, but are holding on to hope. Fully three weeks ago be like: Virus: “Watch me, I’m bell-curving.” Dept of Pandemia: “No you’re not, we’re stopping you!”

[kermit]

3 hours ago, Dale said:

 

We’re WAY past the hump, but are holding on to hope. Fully three weeks ago be like: Virus: “Watch me, I’m bell-curving.” Dept of Pandemia: “No you’re not, we’re stopping you!”

At 7,000 non-random, presumptive positive, test per day (NC’s current rate — that is 7/100 of one percent of our population per day) we have absolutely no idea about peak, plateaus or declines. Anyone who says they know about infection trajectory is simply peddling fiction.

shutting down the economy (or not) was a philosophical question. Our lack of testing (And tracing), on the other hand, is criminal negligence — the lack of testing is going to kill tens of thousands of people needlessly. South Korea, Taiwan and Iceland made test and trace work flawlessly but somehow we were not smart enough to follow their playbook.

Edited May 2, 2020 by kermit

[Richhamleigh, DC]

2000 new cases in  5 days is not "moving the correct direction".   We want more testing to yield fewer positive cases.   Try "reopening" barbers, adult books stores, massage parlors, bars, etc.; people can work from home should continue to do so for the foreseeable future.  If people want to ignore the threat, let them take that risk.  But, don't penalize people for making the choice to shelter until they feel safe.  I think Phase I of the Governor's plan basically does this...

[Dale]

2 hours ago, kermit said:

At 7,000 non-random, presumptive positive, test per day (NC’s current rate — that is 7/100 of one percent of our population) we have absolutely no idea about peak, plateaus or declines. Anyone who says they know about infection trajectory is simply peddling fiction.

shutting down the economy (or not) was a philosophical question. Our lack of testing (And tracing), on the other hand, is criminal negligence — the lack of testing is going to kill tens of thousands of people needlessly. South Korea, Taiwan and Iceland made test and trace work flawlessly but somehow we were not smart enough to follow their playbook.

Notice how the goalposts have changed. We were asked to take a knee, so as to spare the healthcare system. We did that. Hospitals were never close to being overwhelmed. And this not due to destroying the economy. Lockdowns were affected after cases began to drop. Now we’re commanded to cower in place so we can ramp up testing. And testing centers are closing, likely because the lockdown strategy has killed off the frail elderly and so few are sick. Now they’ve cancelled Oktoberfest. Isn’t that in October ?

[kermit]

21 hours ago, Dale said:

Notice how the goalposts have changed. We were asked to take a knee, so as to spare the healthcare system. We did that. Hospitals were never close to being overwhelmed. And this not due to destroying the economy. Lockdowns were affected after cases began to drop. Now we’re commanded to cower in place so we can ramp up testing. And testing centers are closing, likely because the lockdown strategy has killed off the frail elderly and so few are sick. Now they’ve cancelled Oktoberfest. Isn’t that in October ?

Dude, all I said was that none of us have any idea how many people are infected because of the lack of tests. I didn’t move any goalposts and I didn't suggest that anyone cower. I did say that nobody should pretend to know anything about how many people are infected or how likely you are to be exposed to an infected person.

There is one person who deserves the blame for our lack of preparation for this virus and the 60,000+ deaths which resulted from it. The federal government had plenty of time to prepare for this, and there were plenty of successful examples to follow (including successful expamples that did not require shutting down the economy). Everyone needs to understand who is responsible for forcing Americans to choose between earning a living and staying safe. It didn't need to be this way.

”Your body, your choice” (until you infect someone else)

Edited May 2, 2020 by kermit

[Nick2]

I wish we could put all the people who are against the lockdown on an island together and let them reopen all they want. That way the poor snowflakes won't have their economies hurt and they won't be able to infect other people.

[Crucial_Infra]

56 minutes ago, Dale said:

Notice how the goalposts have changed. We were asked to take a knee, so as to spare the healthcare system. We did that. Hospitals were never close to being overwhelmed. And this not due to destroying the economy. Lockdowns were affected after cases began to drop. Now we’re commanded to cower in place so we can ramp up testing. And testing centers are closing, likely because the lockdown strategy has killed off the frail elderly and so few are sick. Now they’ve cancelled Oktoberfest. Isn’t that in October ?

Wait, no one is being commanded to cower in place forever. Many states are moving to re-open today or very soon. Time will tell whether it’s a good idea or not, but the re-open people don’t have much to complain about imo. We’re re-opening. Some states are in a better position than others. Georgia and Florida’s trajectory actually looks pretty good compared to North Carolina so they’re going for it.  Hopefully, NC won’t be far behind them. And hopefully, it doesn’t backfire for any of us. 

Edited May 2, 2020 by Crucial_Infra

[southslider]

Thousands travel between Wuhan and the US in a typical month.  Nearly one thousand just between Wuhan and New York. Millions travel between Wuhan and the rest of China for lunar new year. Tens of thousands travel between China and the US in a typical month. It took an entire month to stop air travel between the US and China, from late December, when the disease became public, until late January, when tens of thousands had already entered the US. By early March, European travelers had already traveled to the US, and it took two more weeks before the travel restrictions with Europe.  Restaurants wouldn't close to dine-in until mid March, and other businesses until late March, or even early April in some states.  In summary, it took three months from the disease being known until the "lockdown" even started, and already one month later, we have a phased plan to re-open, so long as targets can be met.

[nicholas]

Maybe a good sign?

"A total of 10% of tests reported by the state in the past 24 hours came back positive for coronavirus, according to recent numbers from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services."

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-nc-live-updates-for-may-2-2020/19081569/

Edited May 2, 2020 by nicholas