The Coronavirus thread

[nicholas]

Interesting to see that cases have been increasing nationally over the past few weeks while deaths have been declining pretty consistently since mid-April, despite hospitalizations currently being at record highs.  I realize there's a lag in deaths, but I imagine that the most vulnerable people frontloaded the death numbers, and now that those have calmed down a bit, perhaps hospitals are willing to admit more and more patients who would not have been admitted just a few months ago?

Edited June 24, 2020 by nicholas

[kermit]

^ the nursing home population has been burnt through. Most new cases are much younger people which lowers the death rate — but long term complications are a growing concern in this group.

[CLT2014]

Transatlantic flights from the US will be decimated if the EU bans American travelers: https://thepointsguy.com/news/americans-wont-be-welcome-in-europe/

Would like mean Lufthansa indefinitely canceled on their Munich route and no AA service to Munich and Frankfurt anytime soon. 

[kermit]

We (as North Carolinians as well as residents of many other high infection rate states) are now required to quarantine for 14 days if we travel to New York or Connecticut. Failure to quarantine results is subject to a $2,000 fine. 
 

https://apple.news/AXIKuYbxEQTijie7EU9SnkA

Edited June 24, 2020 by kermit

[gman430]

1 hour ago, kermit said:

We (as North Carolinians as well as residents of many other high infection rate states) are now required to quarantine for 14 days if we travel to New York or Connecticut. Failure to quarantine results is subject to a $2,000 fine. 
 

https://apple.news/AXIKuYbxEQTijie7EU9SnkA

I’d rather quarantine for 14 days in Hawaii.  

[KJHburg]

well NY should quarantine their own people as their rate of infection is 4x that of NC.  Unfortunately this move is political payback from southern states that quarantined NYers and NC ironically was not one of them.  Our first cases came from the Boston area in fact.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/

 

[kermit]

6 hours ago, KJHburg said:

well NY should quarantine their own people as their rate of infection is 4x that of NC.  Unfortunately this move is political payback from southern states that quarantined NYers and NC ironically was not one of them.  Our first cases came from the Boston area in fact.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/

 

Umm, this is a very misleading use of the data. The Statista table may be correct in terms of the cumulative number of diagnoses since February, but infected people are only contagious for only around 2 weeks (thus the length of quarantine). Given that, any diagnoses that is more than 2 weeks old is not particularly relevant to assessing the current risk level of a place. In addition, a larger number of old positive tests may suggest higher levels of herd immunity (although we are still learning about that).

Over the past two weeks:

• New York has been adding fewer than 700 new infections per day and the number is declining.
• NC has seen between 800 and 1,800 new infections per day (and that number is trending up). Per capita this roughly 200-500% higher than New York's rate
• SC has been adding as many as 1,200 new cases per day (trending upwards faster than NC). Per capita this is nearly 800% higher than New York's rate
• Arizona is adding nearly 3,600 new cases per day -- this is more than 1000% higher than New York's per capita rate

Looks to me like their decision is quite defensible from a public health perspective. A side effect is that any corporate relocations from NYC to Charlotte are dead at the moment since anyone coming down to look at expansion opportunities  must quarantine when they return to New York.

Edited June 25, 2020 by kermit

[CLT2014]

54 minutes ago, kermit said:

Umm, this is a very misleading use of the data. The Statista table may be correct in terms of the cumulative number of diagnoses since February, but infected people are only contagious is only around 2 weeks (thus the length of quarantine). Given that, any diagnoses that is more than 2 weeks old is not relevant to assessing the current risk. In addition, positive tests that are more than two weeks old are likely to make it harder for the virus to be transmitted locally due to herd immunity (although we are still learning about that)

Over the past two weeks:

• New York has been adding fewer than 700 new infections per day and the number is declining.
• NC has seen between 800 and 1,800 new infections per day (and that number is trending up). Per capita this roughly 200-500% higher than New York's rate
• SC has been adding as many as 1,200 new cases per day (trending upwards faster than NC). Per capita this is nearly 800% higher than New York's rate
• Arizona is adding nearly 3,600 new cases per day -- this is more than 1000% higher than New York's per capita rate

Looks to me like their decision is quite defensible from a public health perspective. A side effect is that any corporate relocations from NYC to Charlotte are dead at the moment since anyone coming down to look at expansion opportunities  must quarantine when they return to New York.

Also, as cases continue to rise in the Sun Belt and those regions become the new epicenter of the virus, any notion that one can "escape" coronavirus by moving a corporation to a more sprawling Sun Belt city will evaporate. At the end of the day, if you are near a person at a Food Lion in Gastonia or a corner deli in New York, you are susceptible. 

Mandatory masks and Phase 2 extended

A concerned North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper announced Wednesday the state will remain in Phase Two for another three weeks while making face coverings mandatory in public.

The order that moved the state into Phase 2 on May 22 was scheduled to expire on Friday. It has been extended until July 17. The mask requirement takes effect Friday at 5 p.m.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article243760267.html

Edited June 24, 2020 by CLT2014

[elrodvt]

6 hours ago, CLT2014 said:

Transatlantic flights from the US will be decimated if the EU bans American travelers: https://thepointsguy.com/news/americans-wont-be-welcome-in-europe/

Would like mean Lufthansa indefinitely canceled on their Munich route and no AA service to Munich and Frankfurt anytime soon. 

i kind of hope they do. It makes sense from a public health perspective and it could wake up our federal government and if not add more fuel to the fire Trump fire.

[Matthew.Brendan]

"lies, damn lies, and statistics"

 

see also:

Edited June 24, 2020 by Matthew.Brendan
add pic

[CLT704]

I think this just sums it up: 

I was at Smelly Cat this morning to get out of my apartment and I was the only person wearing a mask, it’s a piece of cloth... just wear one

[southslider]

Businesses enforcing masks should be as easy as if no shirts or shoes, then no service.

[gman430]

It’s like putting a band-aid on a broken leg. Can’t wait to see how bad it gets two weeks after the 4th of July. Oh and way to go Texas and California.  New daily highs for both states. 

Edited June 24, 2020 by gman430

[cltheel.sdl]

Wow, data is not looking good for the US when compared to Europe, where it looks like they've done a really good job of substantially reducing the spread for a prolonged period. Unfortunately, I think Americans are too passive/lazy/careless to follow the guidelines. It hasn't helped that this virus has become extremely politicized. As someone with somewhat libertarian leanings, I tend to prefer as little government involvement/control over our daily lives as possible, however we need a degree of control/uniformity in our approach to controlling this virus. An unfortunate side effect of the freedom we enjoy has contributed to the "I'll do me, eff everyone else" attitude that is really screwing over our country at the moment. People need to put society as a whole ahead of themselves during a time like this. Really too bad that there are so many selfish people out there that aren't following the precautionary protocols.

[videtur quam contuor]

This just came out. Top economists study what drives the drop in economy: policy or fear of disease. In other words is it an issue of supply or demand?

Answer: demand. Policy may move demand from one business area to another. But people are reluctant to rejoin the economy, generally.  My anecdotal experience is restaurants I know well and visit during normal lunch and dinner times have far lower custom than the beforetimes. I eat outside.

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/2020-80/

[kermit]

Quote

It’s like putting a band-aid on a broken leg. Can’t wait to see how bad it gets two weeks after the 4th of July. Oh and way to go Texas and California.  New daily highs for both states. 

This is kinda ironic coming from this guy:

On 3/17/2020 at 12:37 PM, gman430 said:

Killing the economy off one bar and restaurant at a time. Keep up the great work Cooper. Hope McMaster doesn’t issue this nonsense order. 

Has your thinking on the importance of isolation evolved since March?

[JRNYP2C]

1 hour ago, Matthew.Brendan said:

"lies, damn lies, and statistics"

 

see also:

Look at all the red in Jacksonville, FL........  I wonder if they are second guessing taking the RNC with such voracity and open arms.

[kermit]

^ Some folks (of unknown reliability) are suggesting that most of the SC coast is superspreading now that beach season has gotten up to speed (apparently the Myrtle Beach hotels are all full). As those folks return home the real dumpster fire is gonna start.

Edited June 24, 2020 by kermit

[KJHburg]

Duval County  FL has 937,642 people with 3419 cases and 62 deaths.     .00364 cases per person  sounds like the RNC made a good choice in terms of safety. 

Mecklenburg County has  1,077, 311      9333 cases and  140 deaths     .00866 cases per person or 85 cases per 10,000 people YET Wake County NC slightly bigger has 4253 cases 44 deaths or 39 cases per 10,000 HALF THE RATE OF MECKLENBURG in the same state.

Facts as Mr. Kermit says.  

[kermit]

1 hour ago, KJHburg said:

Facts as Mr. Kermit says.  

? I don’t remember using that word? I did say “data”

IMO (I am not an epidemiologist) the only relevant numbers for risk assessment are a) the number of infections over the previous two weeks (detected or not); and b) the trajectory of that number (after controlling for testing rates). Any numbers that look at total cases since March are simply trying to mislead when attempting to asses relative risk.

Edited June 25, 2020 by kermit

[KJHburg]

^^Data sorry. 

anyway here is an article how the Coronavirus is changing where people want to live, and why they are moving. Some of what I have said is showing up in this as high density urban dwellers most likely to consider moving.  Interesting survey. 

https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/coronavirus-migration-survey

[nashbill]

6 hours ago, gman430 said:

I’d rather quarantine for 14 days in Hawaii.  

You do realize this means 14 days in your hotel room.  They have sent people back for violating this rule.  

[gman430]

1 hour ago, nashbill said:

You do realize this means 14 days in your hotel room.  They have sent people back for violating this rule.  

It has a balcony.  

U.S. hits highest single day of new coronavirus cases at 36,358, breaking April record.

[gman430]

Things are starting to look pretty dire in Texas and especially Houston where ICU beds might hit capacity tomorrow: 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-24/houston-on-pace-to-exceed-intensive-care-capacity-by-tomorrow?sref=aGTrSb9U&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR29MJzxuD3u1etxq8NWBUg87rysIv1a2gkqfQ123qMq4mLgFFegN3U-tPc&fbclid=IwAR3UF8janr2Vu-6PKNgbTauq118zxYrvzLyLpgptZSnbr03527UzAoLxmKI

Edited June 25, 2020 by gman430

[gman430]

6 hours ago, gman430 said:

It has a balcony.  

U.S. hits highest single day of new coronavirus cases at 36,358, breaking April record.

Errr...make that 45,557 new cases yesterday: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/us-hits-highest-single-day-of-coronavirus-cases-at-36358-breaking-april-record.html Let’s shut everything down again.  

Edited June 25, 2020 by gman430