The Coronavirus thread

[Dale]

Lockdowns are why we can’t have nice things ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-24/two-thirds-of-new-york-city-s-arts-and-culture-jobs-are-gone

[DEnd]

1 hour ago, Dale said:

Deaths and cases dropping all over the world. Lockdowns and no lockdowns. Masks and no masks. Vaccines and no vaccines. In any other time we’d consider this winter burden of death winding down.

No we wouldn't.  In normal times  we'd be at the end of a slow down of Flu case increase, with a look out for a mid season increase (which would indicate a likely longer flu season) with an expectation of the infection rate leveling off for the next few to 5 weeks, with a then likely sharp drop off.  If COVID followed the path of the 2019-2020 flu season our hospital systems would be straining, many of them would be full and above capacity with equipment shortages and with wide spread severe staffing issues.    

[urbanlover568]

7 hours ago, Dale said:

Deaths and cases dropping all over the world. Lockdowns and no lockdowns. Masks and no masks. Vaccines and no vaccines. In any other time we’d consider this winter burden of death winding down.

I don't care what you have to say on this matter. I'll trust my local doctor. I'm not selfish and want others to not suffer what my uncle went through. 

[tarhoosier]

One of my doctors is an immunology specialist and researcher at Columbia Presbyterian in NYC. He also is associated with Johnson and Johnson immuno-oncology research. His bona fides are solid. I had a telehealth consultation end of January and he said that for the two approved vaccinations (at that time) that after two to three weeks following the booster I should feel confident going places where unvaccinated individuals are found. Feel free to go to church, restaurants, theaters, etc. As usual avoid obviously sick individuals, keep a distance when within enclosed spaces if possible, wash hands, follow local and state recommendation and so on.  These cautions are more for conventional health reasons such as seasonal flu and other communicable diseases, just general health considerations and not specific to Covid-19. 

In reply to my question about if I had to delay my booster appointment for some personal reason he said that it was better to wait more than 3 (or 4) weeks for the very best results. In the trial the researchers wanted to give their vaccine the very best chance of success, therefore a booster shot, but also to balance the risk of patient compliance.To tell a patient to return in six to ten weeks is to risk losing the patient to followup. The 3 (or 4) week gap was the MINIMUM effective period to ensure success. A week or two longer gap is better. Patient compliance is a critical uncontrollable issue in any medical research.

My Moderna booster is this weekend.

[Dale]

7 hours ago, DEnd said:

No we wouldn't.  In normal times  we'd be at the end of a slow down of Flu case increase, with a look out for a mid season increase (which would indicate a likely longer flu season) with an expectation of the infection rate leveling off for the next few to 5 weeks, with a then likely sharp drop off.  If COVID followed the path of the 2019-2020 flu season our hospital systems would be straining, many of them would be full and above capacity with equipment shortages and with wide spread severe staffing issues.    

We are essentially at the end of what looks like a normal winter burden of deaths. The anomaly was the panic spike of March and April.

1 hour ago, urbanlover568 said:

I don't care what you have to say on this matter. I'll trust my local doctor. I'm not selfish and want others to not suffer what my uncle went through. 

Did anti-maskers murder your uncle ?

1 hour ago, tarhoosier said:

One of my doctors is an immunology specialist and researcher at Columbia Presbyterian in NYC. He also is associated with Johnson and Johnson immuno-oncology research. His bona fides are solid. I had a telehealth consultation end of January and he said that for the two approved vaccinations (at that time) that after two to three weeks following the booster I should feel confident going places where unvaccinated individuals are found. Feel free to go to church, restaurants, theaters, etc. As usual avoid obviously sick individuals, keep a distance when within enclosed spaces if possible, wash hands, follow local and state recommendation and so on.  These cautions are more for conventional health reasons such as seasonal flu and other communicable diseases, just general health considerations and not specific to Covid-19. 

In reply to my question about if I had to delay my booster appointment for some personal reason he said that it was better to wait more than 3 (or 4) weeks for the very best results. In the trial the researchers wanted to give their vaccine the very best chance of success, therefore a booster shot, but also to balance the risk of patient compliance.To tell a patient to return in six to ten weeks is to risk losing the patient to followup. The 3 (or 4) week gap was the MINIMUM effective period to ensure success. A week or two longer gap is better. Patient compliance is a critical uncontrollable issue in any medical research.

My Moderna booster is this weekend.

Or you could just go to church, restaurants, theatre, etc., now.

[urbanlover568]

1 minute ago, Dale said:

Did anti-maskers murder your uncle ?

Again, I don't care what you have to say on this matter.

[Dale]

2 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

Again, I don't care what you have to say on this matter.

And since you seem to want to blame your uncle’s death on other people, I’m going to continue to keep that issue in view.

[Windsurfer]

3 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

Again, I don't care what you have to say on this matter.

At this point he seems to be trolling.

[urbanlover568]

Just now, Windsurfer said:

At this point he seems to be trolling.

I agree. 

 

@Neo can you please help here?

[Dale]

Just now, Windsurfer said:

At this point he seems to be trolling.

I’m simply commenting on one of the saddest aspects of this moral panic, the tendency to view others as disease vectors, first and foremost.

[WCUP]

@Dale Is there no relation between preventative measures (masks, distancing) and viral spread?   
 

Can you share more about the number of deaths being “normal winter burden”?  Seems much higher from what I can tell.  What sources do you have indicating otherwise? 

https://www.r-bloggers.com/2021/02/excess-deaths-february-update/
 

 

[Dale]

2 hours ago, WCUP said:

@Dale Is there no relation between preventative measures (masks, distancing) and viral spread?   
 

Can you share more about the number of deaths being “normal winter burden”?  Seems much higher from what I can tell.  What sources do you have indicating otherwise? 

https://www.r-bloggers.com/2021/02/excess-deaths-february-update/
 

 

Thanks for the opportunity to (re)clarify. There have been SIGNIFICANT ‘excess deaths’ this year. The first graph, on your reference, point to back-to-back mild winters, when respiratory viruses are most lethal. Notice how the curve is reducing in March, as you would expect ... then the anomalous and precipitous ‘Covid peak’ manifests. 

I am slightly fixated on the fact the real dying accelerates just days after the ominous WHO declaration of March 11. You see spikes like this, all over the world, at the same time, but not in every jurisdiction. In fact, not in most jurisdictions. 

It is my strong suspicion that the spike represents what we were doing to people, in certain jurisdictions, more so than any virus running through the population. I’m envisioning an environment of stark terror, over-treatment and policies which ensured that the most vulnerable were exposed to any number of infections and also dying from neglect, isolation and despair. 
 

Add to that a disturbing spike in people dying at home ...

 

 

 

[Dale]

And over the rest of the year, lockdowns have likely accelerated deaths of despair. And clearing hospitals, for Covid, have resulted in vast numbers of vital treatments deferred or foregone. I’ve already referenced a woman I knew who was receiving treatments for cancer. Her family related that her treatments kept getting pushed back. Homicides also surged. Even traffic fatalities increased! Lots of dying across the board this year.

[WCUP]

49 minutes ago, Dale said:

And over the rest of the year, lockdowns have likely accelerated deaths of despair. And clearing hospitals, for Covid, have resulted in vast numbers of vital treatments deferred or foregone. I’ve already referenced a woman I knew who was receiving treatments for cancer. Her family related that her treatments kept getting pushed back. Homicides also surged. Even traffic fatalities increased! Lots of dying across the board this year.

Thanks for clarifying.  Do you blame maskers for the delay in treatment of your friend?   J/k - just following your line of questioning...focusing on blame is unproductive.  I don’t think who you blame matters...tempting, but distracting.  
 

Why does the empathy need to be segregated?  We’ve had only bad decisions to choose between.  I suppose you would argue that our measures to limit the impact of the virus were counter productive.  How can you be sure that without lockdowns, distancing, masking, that the spikes wouldn’t have been greater and more severe?   I’ve seen you suggest that they didn’t matter, and find this hard to believe.  What data suggests otherwise?  

I express empathy for all of us impacted by the both the virus itself and the measures we’ve employed to mitigate its impact.  We’ve learned quite a bit along the way, and had to deal with various supply shortages which explains why messaging on masks shifted.  
 

The traffic fatality rise is baffling.  I wonder what the experts will determine to be the key contributing factor for that...less congestion = higher speeds?  Stress?  
 

[Dale]

4 minutes ago, WCUP said:

Thanks for clarifying.  Do you blame maskers for the delay in treatment of your friend?   J/k - just following your line of questioning...focusing on blame is unproductive.  I don’t think who you blame matters...tempting, but distracting.  
 

Why does the empathy need to be segregated?  We’ve had only bad decisions to choose between.  I suppose you would argue that our measures to limit the impact of the virus were counter productive.  How can you be sure that without lockdowns, distancing, masking, that the spikes wouldn’t have been greater and more severe?   I’ve seen you suggest that they didn’t matter, and find this hard to believe.  What data suggests otherwise?  

I express empathy for all of us impacted by the both the virus itself and the measures we’ve employed to mitigate its impact.  We’ve learned quite a bit along the way, and had to deal with various supply shortages which explains why messaging on masks shifted.  
 

The traffic fatality rise is baffling.  I wonder what the experts will determine to be the key contributing factor for that...less congestion = higher speeds?  Stress?  
 

I could post literally dozens of studies that point to the futility of lockdowns (this is a submicroscopic particle) but I’d rather focus on the human rights aspect. Think about it. Along about March ... 

You are not permitted to open your own business. You can’t send your kids to school. You cannot attend church. You can’t eat out. You can’t go to a movie. You can’t leave the country. You can’t sit on a park bench. Forget sports and concerts. You have to push back that cancer screening. You can’t comfort your dying. You can’t bury your dead. 
 

Life entails risks. And inevitably we die. We all die. Really, the only way to avoid risks is to commit suicide. And that’s basically what we did in 2020.
 

 

Oh, the theory on traffic fatalities I’ve heard is, fewer cars on the road = riskier driving. But they are up.

[Dale]

I keep close track of the U.K. Their numbers so mirror our own. And their ONS is quicker to the mark with hard data. 

Joel Smalley, on Twitter, has been parsing excess deaths for the U.K. in 2020

47,011 from Covid.

54,208 from denied healthcare and unexplained reasons.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if our percentages lined up accordingly. 

 

 

 

[urbanlover568]

I just hate it when people try to diminish the severity of COVID to incentivise people to act stupid/selfish and infect others.  

[Dale]

33 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

I just hate it when people try to diminish the severity of COVID to incentivise people to act stupid/selfish and infect others.  

And I hate it when people diminish, no, chortle at the suffering of the multitudes, crushed by the effects of a monomaniacal focus, on one health concern, to the exclusion of all else.

[Windsurfer]

22 hours ago, Dale said:

I could post literally dozens of studies that point to the futility of lockdowns (this is a submicroscopic particle) but I’d rather focus on the human rights aspect. Think about it. Along about March ... 

You are not permitted to open your own business. You can’t send your kids to school. You cannot attend church. You can’t eat out. You can’t go to a movie. You can’t leave the country. You can’t sit on a park bench. Forget sports and concerts. You have to push back that cancer screening. You can’t comfort your dying. You can’t bury your dead. 
 

Life entails risks. And inevitably we die. We all die. Really, the only way to avoid risks is to commit suicide. And that’s basically what we did in 2020.
 

 

Oh, the theory on traffic fatalities I’ve heard is, fewer cars on the road = riskier driving. But they are up.

Minimize those "risks".  Wear masks, keep some distance and use common sense.  If we'd have done that in the beginning there'd not have been mandates to "close businesses" etc. But, no, we have selfish and short-sighted folks who can't do the right thing because they believe their rights are being trampled.  I closed my business in March because of customers and employees alike refusing to wear masks. It was a simple request.  Just wasn't worth the fight in the end. Many of my customers also carry, so that added yet another layer to, 'you ain't gonna tell me what to do'.   Americans are our own worst enemies.

[Havemercy]

1 hour ago, Windsurfer said:

Minimize those "risks".  Wear masks, keep some distance and use common sense.  If we'd have done that in the beginning there'd not have been mandates to "close businesses" etc. But, no, we have selfish and short-sighted folks who can't do the right thing because they believe their rights are being trampled.  I closed my business in March because of customers and employees alike refusing to wear masks. It was a simple request.  Just wasn't worth the fight in the end. Many of my customers also carry, so that added yet another layer to, 'you ain't gonna tell me what to do'.   Americans are our own worst enemies.

If we had "done that in the beginning"?  You mean March of last year - the same month we were told by the CDC, Fauci and the media that masks should not be worn / were not necessary for the general public?  Businesses were not closed because people refused to wear masks.  They were closed because we didn't know what we were dealing with and we needed "15 days to slow the spread".  15 days.  Its been a year.   

[urbanlover568]

1 hour ago, Havemercy said:

If we had "done that in the beginning"?  You mean March of last year - the same month we were told by the CDC, Fauci and the media that masks should not be worn / were not necessary for the general public?  Businesses were not closed because people refused to wear masks.  They were closed because we didn't know what we were dealing with and we needed "15 days to slow the spread".  15 days.  Its been a year.   

FACTS

 

[Havemercy]

2 hours ago, urbanlover568 said:

FACTS

 

Nice video but unclear as to what that has to do with my comment?   We were told not to wear masks in March of 2020.  That’s a FACT.   We were told 15 days to slow the spread but here we sit a year later.  That’s another FACT.   I had no political commentary in there whatsoever and never brought up Trump. 

However, I assume your post and video was another “orange man bad” commentary meant to end any discussion and debate that doesn’t fit a narrative or makes you uncomfortable.  Which is par for the course these days and a sad commentary on where we are.   

I would still like to understand from @Windsurfer the comment re: masks and how in March of 2020 not wearing them caused us to shutdown.  I’m curious and would like to engage in a discussion.   Don’t need a Trump video.  
 

Edited February 27, 2021 by Havemercy
Grammar correction.

[Windsurfer]

6 hours ago, Havemercy said:

If we had "done that in the beginning"?  You mean March of last year - the same month we were told by the CDC, Fauci and the media that masks should not be worn / were not necessary for the general public?  Businesses were not closed because people refused to wear masks.  They were closed because we didn't know what we were dealing with and we needed "15 days to slow the spread".  15 days.  Its been a year.   

My business was closed because of one main reason: nobody was distancing. I had masks, and was wearing one myself, but was ridiculed.  My masks arrived from a vendor in Taiwan who was familiar with  SARS and virus transmissions. I have several surgeon friends, and a couple of dentists friends whom I consulted.  All agreed masks are valid tools in the war against spreading the virus. If the underfunded CDC and Trump said "no masks", then that goes toward what I said before,  if we had used common sense from the beginning we could've kept a lot of the spread under control.   I stand by my point.

[Havemercy]

8 hours ago, Windsurfer said:

My business was closed because of one main reason: nobody was distancing. I had masks, and was wearing one myself, but was ridiculed.  My masks arrived from a vendor in Taiwan who was familiar with  SARS and virus transmissions. I have several surgeon friends, and a couple of dentists friends whom I consulted.  All agreed masks are valid tools in the war against spreading the virus. If the underfunded CDC and Trump said "no masks", then that goes toward what I said before,  if we had used common sense from the beginning we could've kept a lot of the spread under control.   I stand by my point.

I agree with you 100% - its about common sense. Regardless of one's view on masks at the time, if early in the crisis you as a business owner deemed that as a requirement of doing business, you had every right to do so and people should either respect it or choose to  do business elsewhere.   While much of the reaction in the beginning (closures, stay at home orders) was due to the unknown, it is unfortunate that that we could not come together as a country and find common ground, agreement and compliance on safety measures to keep things open, protect the vulnerable and lesson transmission with the general population until the vaccines arrived.   What you describe does that - a common sense approach.   Our political divisions then and now continue to be a hinderance to achieving this but its on both sides of the spectrum.  Its not just the "you ain't gonna tell me what to do"  Americans, but also "I'm smarter and more virtuous than you and you are going to do as I say" Americans.   Politicians have always created divisions but Americans have in the past transcended politics, I wish we could do so today and become one America again.   

[gman430]

I see both the N.C. and S.C. governors are lifting Covid restrictions. About damn time.