OPINION: Does COVID-19 Mark the Top of the Orlando Building Boom?

[Jvest55]

Breaking: SeaWorld Entertainment's new CEO resigns after just 5 months on the job

By the way, former CEO Bob Iger of Disney had the most impeccable timing to step down from CEO. I mean, you can't get better than that. The poor new guy though. Ouch.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Jvest55

[Jvest55]

Nearly a Third of U.S. Apartment Renters Didn’t Pay April Rent

Nearly a third of U.S. apartment renters didn’t pay any of their April rent during the first week of the month, according to new data to be released Wednesday by the National Multifamily Housing Council and a consortium of real-estate data providers.

The numbers are the first hard look at how many Americans are struggling to make rent during the coronavirus pandemic. The data come in the first of weekly reports on unpaid rent from NMHC, a landlord trade group.

Only 69% of tenants paid any of their rent between April 1 and 5, compared with 81% in the first week of March and 82% in April 2019, the data show.

The count includes renters who only made partial payments. Many renters who haven’t yet paid may still pay later this month, NMHC said, and an uptick in paperless payments over the weekend may not be reflected in this initial count.

Some tenants will be temporarily protected from eviction for unpaid rent by a patchwork of federal and local laws. But real-estate operators and analysts have worried that unpaid rent could set off a chain of events that first cause commercial mortgage defaults, zapping investments in bonds backed by those mortgages.

[popsiclebrandon]

Got me thinking of the newer/UC/proposed projects which ones might be in trouble.

Newer but open

Modera - I think Mill Creek is pretty big, they should be fine

Citi - I think there is potential for huge trouble here. Interest only bridge loan comes due next year so somehow needs to refinance soon or come up with $70 mill.

420 - Big company, should be fine

Unionwest - Probably getting crushed now but the long term prospects are sound. People aren't going to stop attending college en masse.

U/C

520 - Assume it finishes and they lease even more as short term or whatever they can

MAA on Orange - No worries there

Golden Sparrow or whatever - This I worry about. I bet it gets delayed/scaled back.

Julian - They will still open as UCF students will continue to exist

Radius - Looks full speed ahead. They are marketing very small retail spots so that might work for them to help supplement lower rental income.

The Yard - Terrible time to try to move people in but they are still working. I do wonder if they will pause on the last back part for a bit.

Broadstone - Don't think you see any issues here finishing.

Planned -

Church St Station - Bet this gets pushed back some but eventually happens

Hotel by Metropolitan - This has to be dead

Zoi House - Dead

Mosaic thing at Marks - Dead

VMC - Was never alive

VIVE on Eola - Prob dead unless they can do those at like $7-800 a month and then I think it would fill quickly

DXV - Gonna go on a limb and say this gets built in some way

Not hotel next to Skyhouse - Dead

 

Prob missing a few but I'm guessing most upcoming multifamily is dead til the dust settles but most things should finish and we shouldnt have a ton of half finished buildings dotting the skyline.

[spenser1058]

Whenever someone proposes a downtown hotel, the assumption should always be they’re just throwing at the wall to see what sticks.

Downtown occupancy has always grown glacially (at least since the early ‘70’s when WDW opened and there weren’t enough rooms in the region - that ended with the ‘73 gas embargo). Look for 1 or really stretching it, 2 per decade at most.

As for VMC - those initials are just equivalent to LOL.

[Jvest55]

That sounds about right Brandon. The Yard project was always crazy to me. Is somebody going to pay to live next to a railroad? Just the result of a cocky developer who thinks they can build anywhere and people will come. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Jvest55

[Uncommon]

Zoi House is so disappointing to me. Really had high hopes for that one.

[spenser1058]

Does this mean we saved the tree?

[gibby]

2 hours ago, popsiclebrandon said:

DXV - Gonna go on a limb and say this gets built in some way

bold!

[dcluley98]

The one I was hoping for most was the Summit Radisson in South Eola. That was a nice looking design. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by dcluley98

[smileguy]

Unicorp put out a video today. 
"We are still moving forward with all of the developments we had underway for this year. We have pushed our construction starts a few months but we expect to deliver by mid 2021! "

 

 

[dcluley98]

Disney World to furlough 43K more workers due to coronavirus

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3559974-disney-world-to-furlough-43k-workers-due-to-coronavirus

"With the latest addition, Disney World is poised to furlough most of its 77K employees, both union and non-union, nearly tripling the unemployment rate in the Orlando, Fla., metro area."

[JFW657]

3 hours ago, dcluley98 said:

Disney World to furlough 43K more workers due to coronavirus

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3559974-disney-world-to-furlough-43k-workers-due-to-coronavirus

"With the latest addition, Disney World is poised to furlough most of its 77K employees, both union and non-union, nearly tripling the unemployment rate in the Orlando, Fla., metro area."

[spenser1058]

Meanwhile, the IRS has begun sending the stimulus payment to direct deposit accounts.

An IRS website should be available next week to check the status of your payment:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/11/politics/irs-coronavirus-stimulus-check-deposit/index.html

From CNN

[dcluley98]

My Rent still went up. LOL, FML . 

[spenser1058]

10 minutes ago, dcluley98 said:

My Rent still went up. LOL, FML . 

Oh dear.

[Jvest55]

14 hours ago, dcluley98 said:

My Rent still went up. LOL, FML . 

Yeah you know, that's cause they treat current tenants differently than those incoming. Same thing just 5 years ago (maybe still) that new cable TV customers get a better deal than people who have been with the service for two decades. Start to look hard at what the leases are for incoming tenants for the same sq. ft. and then you get a better idea if prices have changed.  

[dcluley98]

Yes, we all know this. 

I was trying to negotiate based upon the fact that I know they are experiencing issues but they know people can't really "move" right now like they would normally be able to . 

[jack]

2 hours ago, dcluley98 said:

Yes, we all know this. 

I was trying to negotiate based upon the fact that I know they are experiencing issues but they know people can't really "move" right now like they would normally be able to . 

Move.

[Jvest55]

The potential sale of Winter Park Village — one of Central Florida's largest retail centers — may not be happening as the COVID-19 pandemic delays retail deals across the region.

New York-based real estate investment trust Kimco Realty Corp. (NYSE: KIM) no longer is interested in buying the upscale mixed-use asset, which features restaurants, office space, a movie theater, a Publix and more, Orlando Business Journal has learned. New York-based Eastdil Secured LLC was listing the shopping center for up to $150 million. The roughly 30-acre property is on U.S. Highway 17-92 near the intersection of Lee Road in the upscale city of Winter Park.

The retail center has struggled in recent months as several tenants either have refused to pay rent or filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. In March, Calabasas, California-based Cheesecake Factory Inc. (Nasdaq: CAKE) said it wouldn't pay April rent. In addition, tenants Pier 1 and Orlando-based FoodFirst Global Restaurants Inc. — which operates another tenant, Brio — have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Jvest55

[bqknight]

On 4/12/2020 at 9:19 AM, dcluley98 said:

My Rent still went up. LOL, FML . 

I was pleasantly surprised when I got an email about 2 weeks ago with a renewal offer....no increase in rent. Hallelujah! We have a steal for a 2/2 apartment in South Eola. 

[nite owℓ]

4 hours ago, bqknight said:

I was pleasantly surprised when I got an email about 2 weeks ago with a renewal offer....no increase in rent. Hallelujah! We have a steal for a 2/2 apartment in South Eola. 

What # is considered a steal?

[Jvest55]

On 4/13/2020 at 8:51 AM, dcluley98 said:

Yes, we all know this. 

I was trying to negotiate based upon the fact that I know they are experiencing issues but they know people can't really "move" right now like they would normally be able to . 

I'd raise hell if I got raised. The nerve of some buildings. How are you gonna raise rent on people in a pandemic? Maybe they would like to be on the 5 o'clock news.

[HankStrong]

10k a month!

[bqknight]

1 hour ago, nite owℓ said:

What # is considered a steal?

Total cost w/ extra parking spot and all other fees (including dog): $1,854/mo

[spenser1058]

Brio Italian’s holding company, headquartered in Orlando since  moving from Columbus in 2018 (they heard @HankStrong and @AndyPok1 had become wild party animals since leaving Ohio and wanted in on the action), has filed for bankruptcy in the wake of COVID-19. The company has about 100 locations including Mall at Millenia.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/jobs-economy/os-bz-coronavirus-brio-italian-bankruptcy-20200414-xxcqn577r5aidff24inyvu7axm-story.html

From the Sentinel