OPINION: Does COVID-19 Mark the Top of the Orlando Building Boom?

[smileguy]

19 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Keep in mind, most furloughed WDW cast members were still  “employed” through last Saturday and were in fact told not to apply through DEO until then (in fact, Disney downloaded all the info to the state at that point.

Since WDW is by far the region’s largest employer, that’s not going to hit the numbers until April or May.

Also, remember that the DEO website was functionally not accepting new claims for much of March and April. These numbers are FAR under reported. 

[Jvest55]

I found this pretty interesting, just sharing it here.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she-got-a-paycheck-protection-loan-her-employees-hate-her-for-it.html

 

[Jvest55]

Say Yes to donuts!

A new doughnut shop may come out of the oven soon in downtown Orlando.

Orlando-based Pattie-Lou's Donuts LLC wants to sign a lease with the city of Orlando for an 835-square-foot space at 139 E. Pine St., city records showed. The six-year lease is expected to start May 1 and the tenant would pay $1,541.97 per month to lease the space. City Council is expected to vote April 27 on the lease agreement.

[popsiclebrandon]

On 4/24/2020 at 3:16 PM, Jvest55 said:

Say Yes to donuts!

A new doughnut shop may come out of the oven soon in downtown Orlando.

Orlando-based Pattie-Lou's Donuts LLC wants to sign a lease with the city of Orlando for an 835-square-foot space at 139 E. Pine St., city records showed. The six-year lease is expected to start May 1 and the tenant would pay $1,541.97 per month to lease the space. City Council is expected to vote April 27 on the lease agreement.

Going to have to be baked since you can't hood that space. City dropped that price like $500 a month.

[nite owℓ]

@popsiclebrandon I remember you mentioned you were going to lease commercial space in one of the new mixed-use developments. Are you still going to pursue it and push forward with everything going on? Curious to hear your outlook on the economy (or anyone else who wants to provide input). Is now the time to put in the ground work to position yourself to reap the benefits once everything returns to "normal" or is it just not worth the risk at the moment?

[popsiclebrandon]

2 minutes ago, nite owℓ said:

@popsiclebrandon I remember you mentioned you were going to lease commercial space in one of the new mixed-use developments. Are you still going to pursue it and push forward with everything going on? Curious to hear your outlook on the economy (or anyone else who wants to provide input). Is now the time to put in the ground work to position yourself to reap the benefits once everything returns to "normal" or is it just not worth the risk at the moment?

Yeah we have a lease at The Yard. Were planning a Sept-ish opening but we're now in a semi-stall. We have architects still working but we're hearing rumors of new city codes about occupancy and things that would require us to make large changes to our plans. We're already working through ideas to change into a more all-day concept and run a few "ghost" concepts out of our kitchen to allow for some extra sales to make up for the loss of seats. In a way we're lucky we're not an existing restaurant. We can reconfigure a blank space so much easier than existing spots that either won't make it or will look much different after this. I know we're down about 93-95% from last year and I can't imagine anyone is much better than down 50%.

Its going to be bad til prob this time next year for the hospitality world so we're thinking we may push opening to spring but we'll see what we can work out.

On the flip side there is about to be a ton of opportunity. Unfortunately a lot of people will lack the capital to make some moves but been working with some people locally who are a little liquid and see the big picture of there will be a lot of cheap spots opening up and if you can figure out how to make people feel safe and comfortable again then you will do well. I've used this time to start launching another new business that I feel good about so despite the lack of sleep and at times overwhelming stress I'm trying to stay positive and productive. We've had good response with our delivery option and some days our in-store numbers aren't completely awful.

[bqknight]

On 4/24/2020 at 3:16 PM, Jvest55 said:

Say Yes to donuts!

A new doughnut shop may come out of the oven soon in downtown Orlando.

Orlando-based Pattie-Lou's Donuts LLC wants to sign a lease with the city of Orlando for an 835-square-foot space at 139 E. Pine St., city records showed. The six-year lease is expected to start May 1 and the tenant would pay $1,541.97 per month to lease the space. City Council is expected to vote April 27 on the lease agreement.

This would make me happy. There’s a lack of solid baked good options downtown, while in my opinion, Orlando as a whole has some REALLY good bakeries. Gideons, P is for Pie, Buttermilk, DG Doughnuts, Valhalla. I can go on and on. But downtown is pretty barren beyond frozen treats. 

[dcluley98]

Good luck Brandon! 

[popsiclebrandon]

Walked around Thornton and down to Orange last night to see if people were going out and what was open. WOB was slammed, Eola had most of their outside tables occupied, but Osphere had 2 2 tops and that was it. A salon on Washington was open with their blinds up and not a care in the world that they were breaking the law. Dapper Duck seemed busy on Orange but that was about it, everything else looked dead. A bar on Central decided to open and serve drinks and people were smoking hookah outside. It was kinda insane as there were probably 50+ people in there and I asked the cop I saw on the street about it and he said nothing he could do.

Between that and some of the pool parties happening and the huge groups hanging out in the park I don't like the odds for downtown to not get hit hard with this.

[codypet]

45 minutes ago, popsiclebrandon said:

Walked around Thornton and down to Orange last night to see if people were going out and what was open. WOB was slammed, Eola had most of their outside tables occupied, but Osphere had 2 2 tops and that was it. A salon on Washington was open with their blinds up and not a care in the world that they were breaking the law. Dapper Duck seemed busy on Orange but that was about it, everything else looked dead. A bar on Central decided to open and serve drinks and people were smoking hookah outside. It was kinda insane as there were probably 50+ people in there and I asked the cop I saw on the street about it and he said nothing he could do.

Between that and some of the pool parties happening and the huge groups hanging out in the park I don't like the odds for downtown to not get hit hard with this.

I was biking downtown and Avenue, Dapper Duck, and Pourhouse were all slammed out on the patios at about 9:15pm.  Also the approach to the Colonial overpass has RAMPANT drug use and OPD doesn't seem to be able to do anything about it.  If I had to walk instead of blowing by those people at 15 mph, I would not take the Colonial overpass.

[Jerry95]

57 minutes ago, codypet said:

I was biking downtown and Avenue, Dapper Duck, and Pourhouse were all slammed out on the patios at about 9:15pm.  Also the approach to the Colonial overpass has RAMPANT drug use and OPD doesn't seem to be able to do anything about it.  If I had to walk instead of blowing by those people at 15 mph, I would not take the Colonial overpass.

Sad really, with all the money spent on the overpass would it not have been cheaper to build a shelter for these folks? North Quarter residents still cross Colonial at Orange. 

[nite owℓ]

Below is a documentary worth watching:

"The real homeless you don't see. Out of work truckers or construction workers who've run in to bad luck don't live like this - in tents on mud patches. This is something different. This is drugs, heroin, meth (and mental illness)..."

 

[Dale]

1 hour ago, nite owℓ said:

Below is a documentary worth watching:

"The real homeless you don't see. Out of work truckers or construction workers who've run in to bad luck don't live like this - in tents on mud patches. This is something different. This is drugs, heroin, meth (and mental illness)..."

 

Hearkens back to the Atlantic’s “Death of a Once Great City.” There, NYC was in view. But these days I’m hard-pressed to think of a truly ascendant American city. Maybe when the dust clears a Houston or Dallas will lead the way.

[spenser1058]

14 minutes ago, Dale said:

Hearkens back to the Atlantic’s “Death of a Once Great City.” There, NYC was in view. But these days I’m hard-pressed to think of a truly ascendant American city. Maybe when the dust clears a Houston or Dallas will lead the way.

Given that Tampa was dubbed “America’s Next Great City” in the ‘70’s (during the Bucs’ initial epic losing streak, no less), I’ve always been skeptical when some burg is dubbed the next “It” city.

Jacksonville, taking a smaller radius for its superlative, dubbed itself “The Bold New City of the South” after its 1968 consolidation. Oddly, even that was too much, for I know of no one who ever felt Jax was even in the top tier of important Southern metropolises.

Having said that, other than NYC, DC and LA (along with the media emanating from there), which assume those are the only places in the US that matter,  there are several cities that have interesting enough brands to stand out: Seattle, Austin, Miami, Portland, Denver and Salt Lake all come to mind. There are also places like Omaha and Pittsburgh, which, while unremarkable as a whole, have quirky little districts that are notable among the underground cognoscenti. 

America is made up of many mansions, if you will, and the joy comes in seeking out and discovering them.

[codypet]

9 hours ago, codypet said:

I was biking downtown and Avenue, Dapper Duck, and Pourhouse were all slammed out on the patios at about 9:15pm.  

 

Well that explains the popularity.   Breakin the law.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/05/05/bars-still-cant-serve-alcohol-for-on-site-consumption-under-first-phase-of-florida-reopening/

[popsiclebrandon]

4 hours ago, codypet said:

 

Well that explains the popularity.   Breakin the law.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/05/05/bars-still-cant-serve-alcohol-for-on-site-consumption-under-first-phase-of-florida-reopening/

Swiggs is what I saw and they knew damn well they shouldn't be open. Been a while since I've been there and they definitely didn't have food then. Crazy how many people were crammed in there.

[codypet]

When Casey's owner was interviewed 2 weeks ago on Channel 9 upset that he couldn't open he was quoted saying something like his capacity is 48 people and if he had to operate at 25% it was better than 0%.  All I could think of is when does Casey's ever have less than 48 people in it?  I don't know how he thinks he's going to limit the capacity of Caseys to 12 including staff.

[spenser1058]

Thank God! Haircuts resume next week (subject to restrictions). I’m starting to resemble Bernie Sanders and I most assuredly am not a Bro.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-friday-may-8-20200508-4bvuqieowrh6nds6calku6lkmq-story.html

From the Sentinel 

[spenser1058]

It turns out the Orlando area did a few things right to lock down COVID-19:

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/jobs-economy/os-ne-coronavirus-orlando-dodges-worst-20200508-hwwczkwtaraarnvdtvwyxlnqoi-story.html

From the Sentinel 

[codypet]

RIP Sweet Tomatoes.  Ugh what a gut punch.

That had to be the busiest business at Colonial Pomenade.  What happens to it now.

[spenser1058]

6 hours ago, codypet said:

RIP Sweet Tomatoes.  Ugh what a gut punch.

That had to be the busiest business at Colonial Pomenade.  What happens to it now.

That would be one of the most effective uses of Buddy’s Backhoe I can imagine along that whole GOAA stretch. Do it right this time with mixed-use and lots of green space.

[smileguy]

4 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

That would be one of the most effective uses of Buddy’s Backhoe I can imagine along that whole GOAA stretch. Do it right this time with mixed-use and lots of green space.

If only.   The rental income on that plaza and the plaza where Lucky's was are keeping ORL in the green, but not enough to do a substantial redevelopment. The FAA won't allow any residential/mixed use on the property, and  while parkland would be nice, the airport doesn't like trees for some reason.

[jgardnerucf]

No one will miss ye ol Soup n Salad Exchange, the carpets were stank and no proteins on the salad bar. Dumb! Good riddance!

[spenser1058]

I liked it better when it first opened as the Soup Exchange. Once it became Sweet Tomatoes, the quality seemed to fall to more of a CiCi’s level.

Of course, I haven’t been back in decades so maybe it changed again. Generally, that whole strip of Colonial east of Maguire is trying to become the latest incarnation of OBT (and at least the Trail has Goff’s!) so I just avoid it.

I guess the old folks still go to La Cantina but I like Kres better anyway.

 

 

 

 

[idroveazamboni]

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/mobile/covid-19-pandemic-prompts-urbanites-to-rethink-grand-bargain-of-dense-city-living-1.4932849?cid=sm%3Atrueanthem%3Actvnews%3Apost&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+New+Content+(Feed)&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook