OPINION: Does COVID-19 Mark the Top of the Orlando Building Boom?

[Uncommon]

52 minutes ago, popsiclebrandon said:

Trade the Devos family for Vinik and Tampa would never catch up. Vinik would have already built the Magic entertainment complex thing if he was running things here. Tampa is very likely to catch and pass us in the next few years because they have a plan and a huge advantage of the water.

Not convinced Tampa hasn’t already passed Orlando or will pass us within the calendar year.

Edited May 13, 2020 by Uncommon

[dcluley98]

I would rather live in St. Petersburg.  Tampa and Orlando are a toss-up. There are good and bad parts of both. Leaning to Orlando on that right now, but it is likely  going to change as SPP gets built-out.

[spenser1058]

Florida’s state universities will reopen this fall. Details coming May 28:

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/18/florida-universities-to-reopen-in-the-fall-state-leaders-say/

From the Tampa Bay Times 

Charge On!

[Jvest55]

https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2020/05/22/central-florida-unemployment.html

An active Orlando-area bankruptcy attorney forecasts a depreciation in local real estate values as the pandemic continues to create uncertainty in businesses across the world.

One indication is some developers are looking to sell entitled, undeveloped property due to the need for cash and due to concerns about lending for new construction that it's driving down values, said Scott Shuker, a partner with Orlando-based law firm Shuker & Dorris P.A.

For example, he references a deal that fell through to sell an undeveloped but entitled Florida property for $30 million — the next offer was for $8 million.

On top of that, more clients have already reached out about restructuring their debt than during the height of the 2008-2009 recession, Shuker added. "If we see lack of cash flow combine with decrease in property values, it will make '09 look like a puddle."

So far, the pandemic has put pressure on landlords to go after rent from various leaseholders, which has pushed some to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

But Shuker said banks may become more aggressive in the coming months on loans related to various real estate properties. That may result in a "huge wave" of hotel insolvencies as these properties have struggled due to people traveling less.

Shuker said he's working with three different local businesses with more than $30 million in liabilities whose lenders have extended time to these struggling companies to make loan payments. But the time for these firms will run out in the coming months. And, if lenders refuse to give more extensions, these businesses will be forced to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

"June and July will be interesting months," Shuker said.

[Dale]

Just a minor point, but I find myself increasingly irritated with this seeming refusal to differentiate between the virus, and the reaction to the virus, as the cause of the lightening-swift and thoroughgoing demolition of the economy.

[jliv]

6 minutes ago, Dale said:

Just a minor point, but I find myself increasingly irritated with this seeming refusal to differentiate between the virus, and the reaction to the virus, as the cause of the lightening-swift and thoroughgoing demolition of the economy.

Recessions are caused by collective fear, which infects both investors and consumers.   I can't think of a type of natural disaster worse than an infectious disease, especially with a public infrastructure ill-equipped to deal with outbreaks, to strike fear into the hearts of men, so I'm not at all surprised or irritated by the response.  This is how boom-and-bust capitalism works, so you're going to have to accept it if you want all of the benefits of free markets.  

[Dale]

6 hours ago, jliv said:

Recessions are caused by collective fear, which infects both investors and consumers.   I can't think of a type of natural disaster worse than an infectious disease, especially with a public infrastructure ill-equipped to deal with outbreaks, to strike fear into the hearts of men, so I'm not at all surprised or irritated by the response.  This is how boom-and-bust capitalism works, so you're going to have to accept it if you want all of the benefits of free markets.  

Sorry, cycles come and go. And there was nothing in the fundamentals that had doomsayers staring into a dark impending abyss. When AIDS hit,  C Everett Coop had 100 million dying by 2000 without a vaccine. There were Jeremiads about the extinction of humanity. No wholesale panic. No lockdowns. Life went on. 8,000 Americans die every day. And viruses come and go. But I predict that historians are going to look back on our time as The Great Hysteria.

[spenser1058]

18 minutes ago, Dale said:

Sorry, cycles come and go. And there was nothing in the fundamentals that had doomsayers staring into a dark impending abyss. When AIDS hit,  C Everett Coop had 100 million dying by 2000 without a vaccine. There were Jeremiads about the extinction of humanity. No wholesale panic. No lockdowns. Life went on. 8,000 Americans die every day. And viruses come and go. But I predict that historians are going to look back on our time as The Great Hysteria.

As someone who lived through that horrific time while St. Ronnie and his buddy Poppy Bush ignored what was happening to the “queer boys”, let me suggest you take your straight white male privilege back to North Carolina and just wait for that benighted state to be freed from your bigotry in November.

I assure you that the people of Africa where the disease ran rampant for decades (thank God, W felt guilty for the way his dad acted and sought to help). do not share your outlook on AIDS.

Fortunately, here in the states the ignorance of people like you receded once we finally fought through right-wing propaganda and got the word out AIDS was difficult to contract through casual contact.

You can rest assured that if it had been in the wider community a treatment would have been found a decade sooner and places like rural Georgia would not  still be in great danger from the virus.

That’s not the case with COVID-19.  Get some actual facts, please and come back and see us.

Edited May 23, 2020 by spenser1058

[Dale]

2 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

As someone who lived through that horrific time while St. Ronnie and his buddy Poppy Bush ignored what was happening to the “queer boys”, let me suggest you take your straight white male privilege back to North Carolina and just wait for that benighted state to be freed from your bigotry in November.

I assure you that the people of Africa where the disease ran rampant for decades (thank God, W felt guilty for the way his dad acted and sought to help). do not share your outlook on AIDS.

Fortunately, here in the states the ignorance of people like you receded once we finally fought through right-wing propaganda and got the word out AIDS was difficult to contract through casual contact.

You can rest assured that if it had been in the wider community a treatment would have been found a decade sooner and places like rural Georgia would not  still be in great danger from the virus.

That’s not the case with COVID-19.  Get some actual facts, please and come back and see us.

It’s okay, we can talk. Is North Carolina here in the room with us ? Is Mike Pence putting Covid on you ?

On topic, there is no such thing as a virus that destroys more livelihoods, in eight weeks, than the Great Depression destroyed in four years. Not by itself. Not without help. Not without a full-throated, furious and unrelenting campaign to frighten Americans into supine obeisance.

The virus was sold to us as a once-in-lifetime uniquely pernicious killer plague. Really ? What killer plague worth its salt needs 90 year old diabetics to rack up numbers ? But thanks for running interference for the Department of Pandemia. Your $1,200 check is in the mail. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jliv]

10 hours ago, Dale said:

Sorry, cycles come and go. And there was nothing in the fundamentals that had doomsayers staring into a dark impending abyss. When AIDS hit,  C Everett Coop had 100 million dying by 2000 without a vaccine. There were Jeremiads about the extinction of humanity. No wholesale panic. No lockdowns. Life went on. 8,000 Americans die every day. And viruses come and go. But I predict that historians are going to look back on our time as The Great Hysteria.

https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet  Since the start of the AIDS epidemic, 74.9 million people have been infected,  with 32 million dying.  More would be dead without the anti-retroviral therapy introduced in the mid-90's, so his numbers weren't largely off the mark.  The question is not about overreacting on what we do know, but not reacting in the face of what we don't.  History will also look at how successful Germany and South Korea contained the epidemic with low death rates, because they acted quickly and decisively during key stages of the outbreak.  History will also remember how the Trump administration floundered and relied on fantastical thinking in the early stages of the pandemic.  It will also remember how Trump's analogue in the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, was quite close to death because of this same fantastical thinking. 

So back to the question of whether or not this is the end of the current Orlando building boom.  Absolutely.  Will Orlando bounce back?  Slowly, but with lots of hang-wringing about the fragile industries the local economy is over-reliant on,  lots of discussion of how to fix it, and half-hearted attempts to actually address the problem!

Edited May 24, 2020 by jliv

[Jvest55]

22 hours ago, Dale said:

Just a minor point, but I find myself increasingly irritated with this seeming refusal to differentiate between the virus, and the reaction to the virus, as the cause of the lightening-swift and thoroughgoing demolition of the economy.

No doubt that our hyper-connected world that we live in caused more fear than ever before, which caused governments to react in the way they did. It feels like a mistake to me, but what can we do about it now. Ever hear of the phrase "dig out of a hole?" that's what everybody has got to do now. Let's just hope we never have another global shut down again, otherwise we're going back to the stone age. 

Edited May 24, 2020 by Jvest55

[prahaboheme]

22 minutes ago, Jvest55 said:

No doubt that our hyper-connected world that we live in caused more fear than ever before, which caused governments to react in the way they did. It feels like a mistake to me, but what can we do about it now. Ever hear of the phrase "dig out of a hole?" that's what everybody has got to do now. Let's just hope we never have another global shut down again, otherwise we're going back to the stone age. 

I know your rhetoric is largely hyperbolic, but this is the same talking points coming out of conservative media outlets.  Should the statement read:  "let's just prepare so that we can prevent another global pandemic" rather than "let's just hope we never have another global shut down?"

[dcluley98]

It's almost as if the capitalists want the labor to always be  on the brink of disaster so that they can exploit them and get them to work at cheaper input costs! 

 

[HankStrong]

On 5/23/2020 at 7:35 PM, Dale said:

Sorry, cycles come and go. And there was nothing in the fundamentals that had doomsayers staring into a dark impending abyss. When AIDS hit,  C Everett Coop had 100 million dying by 2000 without a vaccine. There were Jeremiads about the extinction of humanity. No wholesale panic. No lockdowns. Life went on. 8,000 Americans die every day. And viruses come and go. But I predict that historians are going to look back on our time as The Great Hysteria.

Your worldview, regardless of your politics, boggles my mind.  I'm not sure how 100k+ people dying in 2 months is normal in your world.

That's 100k+ people in this country alone dying AFTER extensive lockdowns, social distancing, and fairly extreme measures were implemented to prevent it.  We all understand that humans die every day.  We all know that.  Everyone here.  However many people die every day anyway, this is on top of that.

I'm guessing as long as you don't die and you don't lose your wealth, you're cool with it?

 

I'm all about being nice and kind, but your "this ain't real!" rhetoric sucks.

Edited May 27, 2020 by HankStrong

[cubanbread]

Having lived in Orlando, Tampa, and St. Pete I'm just happy to see every city start to take off in it's own way. 
The I-4 corridor is becoming a monster. Very curious to see what happens to Lakeland in the coming years. To be fair I haven't been in a while but I don't seem to hear a lot about development there. 

BTW, I came from Skyscraper City, been following these threads for a while but finally signed up. SSC doesn't keep up with Orlando news very well. 

As for which city i'd rather live in Tampa, St. Pete, Orlando... they all offer different things.
Orlando has a fantastic downtown, great urban communities, and is a very diverse city. But, although the lakes are nice and unique, it leaves a lot to be desired as far as water front activity.

Tampa's downtown is still up and coming but is about 10 years away from becoming a completely different world, Water Street is a game changer. Tampa is very diverse as well and has great urban neighborhoods and also benefits from being on the bay and a river but there are still gaps between the communities, it doesn't feel seamless.. everything feels off in its own world. 

St. Pete has a great downtown and great urban neighborhoods that roll into each other seamlessly, it's right on the water and has great parks. But it's the least diverse big city in Florida and honestly anything outside of St. pete in Pinellas is trash (with the exception of Dunedin, Gulf Port and Safety Harbor) But considering how dense the county is you'll find yourself driving through one crap neighborhood after the next until you hit one of the cooler suburbs. 

For me, I think Tampa/ St. pete wins out just because they combine to make Tampa Bay. If you live in one you have the other, Orlando doesn't have that but again I want to reiterate, I love Orlando. 
It was the first place I moved to as an adult on my own, I still have tons of friends there, it's downtown is fantastic and to see where it has come from is amazing. 

 

Edited May 27, 2020 by cubanbread

[Uncommon]

Happy First Post!

[spenser1058]

19 minutes ago, cubanbread said:

Having lived in Orlando, Tampa, and St. Pete I'm just happy to see every city start to take off in it's own way. 
The I-4 corridor is becoming a monster. Very curious to see what happens to Lakeland in the coming years. To be fair I haven't been in a while but I don't seem to hear a lot about development there. 

BTW, I came from Skyscraper City, been following these threads for a while but finally signed up. SSC doesn't keep up with Orlando news very well. 

As for which city i'd rather live in Tampa, St. Pete, Orlando... they all offer different things.
Orlando has a fantastic downtown, great urban communities, and is a very diverse city. But, although the lakes are nice and unique, it leaves a lot to be desired as far as water front activity.

Tampa's downtown is still up and coming but is about 10 years away from becoming a completely different world, Water Street is a game changer. Tampa is very diverse as well and has great urban neighborhoods and also benefits from being on the bay and a river but there are still gaps between the communities, it doesn't feel seamless.. everything feels off in its own world. 

St. Pete has a great downtown and great urban neighborhoods that roll into each other seamlessly, it's right on the water and has great parks. But it's the least diverse big city in Florida and honestly anything outside of St. pete in Pinellas is trash (with the exception of Dunedin, Gulf Port and Safety Harbor) But considering how dense the county is you'll find yourself driving through one crap neighborhood after the next until you hit one of the cooler suburbs. 

For me, I think Tampa/ St. pete wins out just because they combine to make Tampa Bay. If you live in one you have the other, Orlando doesn't have that but again I want to reiterate, I love Orlando. 
It was the first place I moved to as an adult on my own, I still have tons of friends there, it's downtown is fantastic and to see where it has come from is amazing. 

 

Welcome aboard! I’ve enjoyed your posts on SSC over the years.

While sometimes I wish Jake Summerlin hadn’t outfoxed Gen. Sanford so the major downtown in the region would be located on Lake Monroe and the St. Johns, we do have our moments like the causeways over Lakes Ivanhoe and Underhill leading into downtown. and the Chain of Lakes in both WP and Windermere. Also, the intimacy of strolling around Lakes Davis and Cherokee in the evening.

As to the ocean, I guess. I never felt slighted on that front because, like many Orlando natives, we spent most weekends and summers growing up at my parents’ condo in New Smyrna Beach. Of course, there was a lot less traffic in those days so it wasn’t much different than going across town- it was certainly quicker than trying to get across the Howard Frankenstein bridge from Tampa to St. Pete most of the time.

Otoh, I loved my time living in Tampa in Hyde Park and I also marvel at what St. Pete did (and it’s not even the county seat)!

We have a lot of arguments here about Orlando’s shortcomings but that’s mostly if you perceive the city itself as a distinct entity. More than other places I lived like Atlanta, Jax and Nashville, to appreciate what we have requires thinking of Central Florida as a region, not just one city.

Martin Andersen got it right with the Sentinel’s masthead for many years, “ ‘ ‘Tis a privilege to live in Central Florida”, even if his motive at the time was to convince Brevard residents (when it was growing faster than Orlando in The Right Stuff era) to buy his paper instead of upstart TODAY.

[Jvest55]

Very sad.

https://www.facebook.com/Ceviche-Tapas-Bar-and-Restaurant-1690754414575302/

It has been our honor to serve the people of Orlando for the past decade. Sadly, the impact of COVID-19 has forced us to make a difficult decision. Ceviche will immediately cease operations permanently in Orlando. The closure is very disappointing for all involved. From the bottom of our heart, thank you for the memories, loyalty and support over the past ten years. We are incredibly grateful to all of our guests and team members– thank you.

We sincerely hope that your experience with us will always remain a cherished memory.

 

[smileguy]

1 hour ago, Jvest55 said:

Very sad.

https://www.facebook.com/Ceviche-Tapas-Bar-and-Restaurant-1690754414575302/

It has been our honor to serve the people of Orlando for the past decade. Sadly, the impact of COVID-19 has forced us to make a difficult decision. Ceviche will immediately cease operations permanently in Orlando. The closure is very disappointing for all involved. From the bottom of our heart, thank you for the memories, loyalty and support over the past ten years. We are incredibly grateful to all of our guests and team members– thank you.

We sincerely hope that your experience with us will always remain a cherished memory.

 

Word on the street is that Lion's Pride won't reopen. A huge list of Downtown bars and other businesses are sending a letter to encourage local governments to ask DeSantis to accelerate reopening for their industry. 

[popsiclebrandon]

I'll be curious about Church St and the food hall and Mary's and all that moving forward. That street has struggled but if those places all leave its basically completely dead now.

[spenser1058]

1 hour ago, popsiclebrandon said:

I'll be curious about Church St and the food hall and Mary's and all that moving forward. That street has struggled but if those places all leave its basically completely dead now.

*Decides if I can’t say something nice, I won’t say anything at all*

[Jvest55]

The street felt like it was on the verge of a huge upswing. How quick things change. The space that Ceviche has was beautiful, but, too big. They used the top floor for weddings and weddings likely won't ever recover fully. I was a big fan of the restaurant, spent a lot of money there. Real shame.

Edited June 3, 2020 by Jvest55

[prahaboheme]

Hell, maybe Mary’s can move into the Ceviche space. Orlando’s Mary’s is on the smaller side and could use the space (although I do like the quaintness factor).

[smileguy]

1 hour ago, prahaboheme said:

Hell, maybe Mary’s can move into the Ceviche space. Orlando’s Mary’s is on the smaller side and could use the space (although I do like the quaintness factor).

Maybe even re-open the flamenco bar side of Ceviche that closed a few years ago for shows!

[spenser1058]

8 minutes ago, smileguy said:

Maybe even re-open the flamenco bar side of Ceviche that closed a few years ago for shows!

Flamenco and Drag Bingo - that would light Church St right up!