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200 S Orange Conversion to MF


ChiDev

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34 minutes ago, IAmFloridaBorn said:

I don't like it. I don't like the repurposing of buildings. I don't think one should ever over pay to live in older spaces but that's just me. 

I just think it's an odd location to put a residential building.

As I opined before, I could see them turning The Park Building into residential, but the original Sun Bank is just a weird spot to want to live.

But then, when I first heard about the intention to build what became 55W, I thought that was a weird location to put a residential building.

Still do, kinda.

We just do things weirdly in Orlando I guess.

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In the case of the old First National Bank building, I recall the upper floors as seeming quite solidly constructed when I used to go up there in the ‘70’s. 

I don’t know how much of those walls got removed when they remodeled the building as part of Sun Bank Center in the mid-80’s, but one can hope.

The solid walls were one of the things I really liked about living in the original building that’s now part of Post Parkside. When I go to bed at night, I have no interest in hearing my neighbors moan during their nocturnal activities.

Edited by spenser1058
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The construction of this building is likely more robust floor to floor than recently constructed low rise apartments in DT. The livability would be determined my intra-unit build-out and facade renovation. 

I think it is an ideal location for residential units, but will reserve judgement until the final execution. 

 

FWIW, there is a proposal on the street for revised GF retail of the entire 200 SOA building. 

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5 hours ago, IAmFloridaBorn said:

I don't like it. I don't like the repurposing of buildings. I don't think one should ever over pay to live in older spaces but that's just me. 

Don't let your NIMBY  side (erosion of the cityscape you once knew) make this a blanket statement.  Some repurposed buildings make absolute sense.  My personal belief is the next big shift will be Autonomous Vehicles making big downtown parking decks irrelevant.  Can't wait till that comes around, the 301 S Rosalind parking deck with it's helix parking deck and flat floor plates comes to mind. image.thumb.png.61e5aa84b3db295341c78f0ec2a23571.png

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7 hours ago, ChiDev said:

Don't let your NIMBY  side (erosion of the cityscape you once knew) make this a blanket statement.  Some repurposed buildings make absolute sense.  My personal belief is the next big shift will be Autonomous Vehicles making big downtown parking decks irrelevant.  Can't wait till that comes around, the 301 S Rosalind parking deck with it's helix parking deck and flat floor plates comes to mind. image.thumb.png.61e5aa84b3db295341c78f0ec2a23571.png

I keep hearing that autonomous vehicles are the future (they probably are) and that parking garages will be empty as a result (less certain about this). What makes people come to that conclusion? Autonomous vehicles are likely going to be popular if they are offer a single use experience or close to it (like a personal Uber). If they host more people, it becomes a bus experience and if people don't want to ride buses now, I don't think a driverless bus will convince anyone. Anyway, the future of autonomous cars will be great but when 50,000+ people want leave work from downtown all at the same time, where do you propose all of these new autonomous vehicles will stage? Yes, the parking garages won't need to be used for the entire work day but they certainly will still need to be used, albeit in a different way. I'd love to hear someone else's thoughts on this. 

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11 hours ago, ChiDev said:

Don't let your NIMBY  side (erosion of the cityscape you once knew) make this a blanket statement.  Some repurposed buildings make absolute sense.  My personal belief is the next big shift will be Autonomous Vehicles making big downtown parking decks irrelevant.  Can't wait till that comes around, the 301 S Rosalind parking deck with it's helix parking deck and flat floor plates comes to mind. image.thumb.png.61e5aa84b3db295341c78f0ec2a23571.png

I just don't feel the older repurposed buildings are safe I guess or give the kind of floorplans that modern buildings could be. It's just me though. It's a personal thing. 

15 hours ago, jack said:

I assume this is a joke. 

So because I don't think like you and everyone else , my opinion has to be a joke? Is why I hate this board sometimes. FO. Just gonna add you and everyone associated with a reaction to your ridiculous post against me to my ignore list to keep things smooth. 

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10 hours ago, KnightBay said:

I keep hearing that autonomous vehicles are the future (they probably are) and that parking garages will be empty as a result (less certain about this). What makes people come to that conclusion? Autonomous vehicles are likely going to be popular if they are offer a single use experience or close to it (like a personal Uber). If they host more people, it becomes a bus experience and if people don't want to ride buses now, I don't think a driverless bus will convince anyone. Anyway, the future of autonomous cars will be great but when 50,000+ people want leave work from downtown all at the same time, where do you propose all of these new autonomous vehicles will stage? Yes, the parking garages won't need to be used for the entire work day but they certainly will still need to be used, albeit in a different way. I'd love to hear someone else's thoughts on this. 

You need to make a few assumptions about the future of auto ownership: Users will not own their cars; rather, they'll request and book them from an Uber-like service. Autonomous vehicles will ferry passengers during the day when they would normally be parked. Autonomous vehicles will be programmed to continue driving rather than paying for parking. 

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19 hours ago, ChiDev said:

Don't let your NIMBY  side (erosion of the cityscape you once knew) make this a blanket statement.  Some repurposed buildings make absolute sense.  My personal belief is the next big shift will be Autonomous Vehicles making big downtown parking decks irrelevant.  Can't wait till that comes around, the 301 S Rosalind parking deck with it's helix parking deck and flat floor plates comes to mind. image.thumb.png.61e5aa84b3db295341c78f0ec2a23571.png

I have heard of some parking decks being designed with conversion specifically in mind, but these often have lower ceiling height and poor natural light penetration for uses like offices and homes.  I think if this type of conversion does happen, it would be more organic - maybe the first floor becomes retail first, with parking above, followed by a floor of storage or support space for the businesses below, could be a second floorkitchen and/or dining near the windows for a ground floor main dining room, things like that. 

I also think that those types of conversions would be driven by smaller independent property owners. Large developers would be more likely to bulldoze the existing structure and begin anew with something that would maximize the use of the space. The unfortunate thing is that large parking garages, particularly locally, are usually owned by larger firms. 

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1 hour ago, Jerry95 said:

You need to make a few assumptions about the future of auto ownership: Users will not own their cars; rather, they'll request and book them from an Uber-like service. Autonomous vehicles will ferry passengers during the day when they would normally be parked. Autonomous vehicles will be programmed to continue driving rather than paying for parking. 

That makes sense in theory but back to the original question? How do you make it work at rush hour? I suppose we could reorient our habits and have the work day spread out so you don't have 50k people requesting a car at the same time. 

8 hours ago, IAmFloridaBorn said:

I just don't feel the older repurposed buildings are safe I guess or give the kind of floorplans that modern buildings could be. It's just me though. It's a personal thing. 

So because I don't think like you and everyone else , my opinion has to be a joke? Is why I hate this board sometimes. FO. Just gonna add you and everyone associated with a reaction to your ridiculous post against me to my ignore list to keep things smooth. 

I could not tell if you were serious or not. It does not matter to me if you like old buildings or not or if you would live in them. 

Safety is not an issue as they would have to be updated to meet modern codes. For our building stock, it is not that big of a deal. You could request a hardship to be exempt from certain regulations. Floor plans will vary. If the elevator shaft is to be reused, the location may not be ideal and you could get funky units plans. 

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1 hour ago, jack said:

That makes sense in theory but back to the original question? How do you make it work at rush hour? I suppose we could reorient our habits and have the work day spread out so you don't have 50k people requesting a car at the same time. 

Thank you, I was hoping that my main concern wasn't going to be glossed over. 

I am not against autonomous vehicles at all (actually quite excited about them) but I do not believe that they will alter the urban landscape in any meaningful way. There will still be the same amount of cars on the road (or close to it), still need vehicle storage nearby to population centers for quick access, and how would this even work in the suburbs?

Ride sharing apps were supposed to change the urban fabric of transportation. That did not happen and I expect the same from autonomous vehicles. 

Bottom line, autonomous vehicles take up physical space the same way as personal vehicles do. Why do we assume that autonomous vehicles do not need storage facilities too? 

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52 minutes ago, jack said:

That makes sense in theory but back to the original question? How do you make it work at rush hour? I suppose we could reorient our habits and have the work day spread out so you don't have 50k people requesting a car at the same time. 

I could not tell if you were serious or not. It does not matter to me if you like old buildings or not or if you would live in them. 

Safety is not an issue as they would have to be updated to meet modern codes. For our building stock, it is not that big of a deal. You could request a hardship to be exempt from certain regulations. Floor plans will vary. If the elevator shaft is to be reused, the location may not be ideal and you could get funky units plans. 

While the location may not be ideal for many, it could work for service industry employees at downtown bars, or young professionals who want to focus on work early in their career.  They'd also be good for executive rentals or corporate housing. Having a diversity of housing stock is important. Not everyone's needs are the same, and having options can help folks find the right match for them.

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1 hour ago, KnightBay said:

Thank you, I was hoping that my main concern wasn't going to be glossed over. 

I am not against autonomous vehicles at all (actually quite excited about them) but I do not believe that they will alter the urban landscape in any meaningful way. There will still be the same amount of cars on the road (or close to it), still need vehicle storage nearby to population centers for quick access, and how would this even work in the suburbs?

Ride sharing apps were supposed to change the urban fabric of transportation. That did not happen and I expect the same from autonomous vehicles. 

Bottom line, autonomous vehicles take up physical space the same way as personal vehicles do. Why do we assume that autonomous vehicles do not need storage facilities too? 

First off your assertion that ridesharing apps didn't change the fabric of transportation is patently false. https://www.denverpost.com/2019/07/21/denver-airport-parking-uber-lyft-rtd/  

You may have some credence in saying it didn't adjust Congestion but it certainly has changed in-active vehicle storage.  https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-biz-ride-share-congestion-loop-20190520-story.html

Autonomous vehicles run by a fleet provider will further decrease downtown parking demand because the vehicles literally never need to stop running (apart from refuel/repair, which they will do outside of the major downtown).  Sans driver, (& using electric vehicle) the cost of ride-share will plummet making it far more cost effective than owning.  To handle rush hour you simply increase the number of active fleet vehicles, and develop demand algorithms to predict needed capacity.  The bottom line result is that someone can take a cheap autonomous ride downtown, never need to park their car, and that car can then go provide rides elsewhere.  To say this won't change a city landscape is folly, what happens when you entirely eliminate the need for parallel parking spaces because autonomous vehicles can drop you off and keep moving?  What happens when the family provider is able to take the car to work, and send the car back on its own to take the kids to school, only to return just in time for end of business?  Do you need as many vehicles?

 Once you move to an entirely autonomous roadway the advantages are compounded.  With 0 human driven cars on the road, autonomous vehicles will be able to take advantage of near vehicle communication, allowing them to instantly manage traffic flow, communicating slowdowns & hazards to the grid.  With CPU only driver-ship we could even get rid of conventional traffic intersections/merges, and allow for the grid to manage traffic patterns like a sorting algorithm.  At that point, human drivers would only be a detriment to the system.

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3 hours ago, ChiDev said:

First off your assertion that ridesharing apps didn't change the fabric of transportation is patently false. https://www.denverpost.com/2019/07/21/denver-airport-parking-uber-lyft-rtd/  

 

Okay, I will concede that I should have been a bit clearer with my choice of words but allow me to clarify. First, I stated that autonomous vehicles wouldn’t likely change the “urban landscape” and not “fabric of transportation”. I do not see autonomous vehicles (AV) changing the look and feel of an urban downtown environment that much.

3 hours ago, ChiDev said:

You may have some credence in saying it didn't adjust Congestion but it certainly has changed in-active vehicle storage.  https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-biz-ride-share-congestion-loop-20190520-story.html

 

You used an example from a far-flung suburban airport not building more parking because of the success of ride-sharing, which I do not see as an apples-to-apples comparison. I am happy that airports are finding success with ridesharing but they are in a unique situation that is not the same as the rest of the city.

3 hours ago, ChiDev said:

Autonomous vehicles run by a fleet provider will further decrease downtown parking demand because the vehicles literally never need to stop running (apart from refuel/repair, which they will do outside of the major downtown).  Sans driver, (& using electric vehicle) the cost of ride-share will plummet making it far more cost effective than owning. 

Yes, because of all of the AV’s being used to transport people to work, downtown parking garages will be empty during the workday. Instead, the AV’s will be out and about picking up and dropping people off all day and the downtown parking garages will still be empty. But here is my question, what happens to all of the AV’s during the middle of the night? Where do all the AV’s “park” when not in use? Would it stand to reason that the AV’s would now use all of the empty downtown parking garages to charge over night? Your personal vehicle that used to be stored in your garage/driveway has to be stored somewhere else. Now that you gained independence from vehicle ownership, someone else must bear the burden of vehicle storage.

3 hours ago, ChiDev said:

To handle rush hour you simply increase the number of active fleet vehicles, and develop demand algorithms to predict needed capacity.  The bottom line result is that someone can take a cheap autonomous ride downtown, never need to park their car, and that car can then go provide rides elsewhere. 

I think you are underestimating the complexity of handling rush hour traffic by just adding more cars and using fancy computers to tell you where to go. I will simply ask again, if you remove all of the downtown parking garages, where do tens of thousands of cars stage to pick up all of the employees that leave between 5:00pm and 5:30pm? Let’s try another thought experiment at the Citrus Bowl (or whatever it is called now). Remove the parking around the Citrus Bowl and host a concert with 70,000 people in attendance. Concerts do not have staggered endings, once it is over, everyone leaves at the same time. Where do you stage 35,000 AV’s around the stadium? Show me the algorithm that can solve the issue of thousands of people that need to be picked up and no place for thousands of AV’s to stage.

3 hours ago, ChiDev said:

To say this won't change a city landscape is folly, what happens when you entirely eliminate the need for parallel parking spaces because autonomous vehicles can drop you off and keep moving?  What happens when the family provider is able to take the car to work, and send the car back on its own to take the kids to school, only to return just in time for end of business?  Do you need as many vehicles?

Are you implying that AV’s will not need parallel parking spaces to drop off/pick up people? AV’s will park in the street and stop traffic? Not very efficient for traffic and sounds dangerous. Bottom line is that it doesn’t matter if you drive a car, an Uber driver driving a car, or no one driving an AV car. There will still be the same amount of cars on the road, so yes, I struggle to see how AV’s will change the urban fabric of a city.

3 hours ago, ChiDev said:

 Once you move to an entirely autonomous roadway the advantages are compounded.  With 0 human driven cars on the road, autonomous vehicles will be able to take advantage of near vehicle communication, allowing them to instantly manage traffic flow, communicating slowdowns & hazards to the grid.  With CPU only driver-ship we could even get rid of conventional traffic intersections/merges, and allow for the grid to manage traffic patterns like a sorting algorithm.  At that point, human drivers would only be a detriment to the system.

First off, you are making the assumption that there will no longer be a human element with AV’s which is incorrect. Yes, once the passenger is in the vehicle, there will be technological gains and traffic efficiency but there is still the issue of the human finding the AV. Humans will find ways to mess up the system, being distracted, last minute cancellations, oops I forgot something upstairs, not to mention alcohol related behavior. This will likely cause delays in the system but we won’t know for sure until AV’s become the common place but ask any ridesharing driver about this and they will likely collaborate it. These little issues are what causes traffic issues that are out of the control of transportation engineers.

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To reply without quoting the entire thing,

Say what you will about the airport being un-comparable, I feel the airport case is exemplary.  Short term demand for parking is being eroded by the convenience made capable through uber lyft etc.  Whether its an airport, or a downtown parking deck, you see the value of those spaces decreasing.  Decreasing value of a parking space is all you need to change the urban landscape.  Sure you might not eliminate ALL PARKING, thats a slippery slope argument the rational would be best to avoid.  Will autonomous make every top 2 floors of parking decks downtown MUCH LESS VALUABLE? This alone would mean the conversion of that space across the board to something that can actually generate sufficient use & would change the "Urban Landscape" as you put it, making active what once was storage.  My answer would be a resounding yes.  The Denver article points that out, in that their incentive (to build parking) has already shifted, and they've cancelled their expansion plans.

Further on you cite where do we store all these vehicles? 

1st.) The number of active AUV's needed to accommodate a population is inherently less than the number required under individual ownership.  There are a myriad of factors to this that I would be happy to expound on, but less you should challenge me on it I am happy to leave it here.

2nd) AUVs are perfectly capable of withdrawing from the city for downtime, to lower cost space on the periphery.  Any mass fleet provider isn't going to be incentivized to pay your current downtown parking rates to store their vehicles, when they can recall them to a location of their choosing.  Ad minimum, even assuming there is still some need for this type of storage, one can assume that the supply demand paradigm is now fundamentally altered.  As a major source of demand, AUVs in fleet could drastically reduce the value of a parking owners spaces by decreasing the rate.

      Any shift downward of the value of downtown parking spaces will change what urbanity looks like.  The same demand factors for a garage space exist for a street space.  Do you really believe all the current street spaces will be needed as drop off points?  Or that we will be accommodated my pickup zones (Like Uber & Lyft are already doing).   Say just one or two parking lined streets can reduce?  even if you only eliminated 1/3rd of downtown street-side parking, it would be a monumental shift.

Citrus bowl does present an interesting problem - but like rush hour, it is not one that cannot be overcome.  People inherently think of their sedan when imagining an AUV.  A vehicle where they still sit in the drivers seat & have a 5 person vehicle like they've always known.  So far the most practical applications have been higher capacity, and more versatile in shape for payload.  (https://www.apta.com/research-technical-resources/mobility-innovation-hub/autonomous-vehicles/) - While the enclosed example is ugly as sin, you begin to understand what I mean.  These higher capacity AUVs would still be dropped a full travel route by the customer (through their app) and an algorithem would pair them with riders like Uber already does for rideshare.  A full fleet of these could handle emptying the citrus bowl or downtown workscape (which may be forever changed on its own with wfh) and do so more efficiently than hundreds of drunk fans snoozing behind the wheel.

Later on you make some tech assertions I disagree with, namely that human interference in the AUV grid would even be comparably inefficient to the current all-human model.  AI learning has already revolutionized our thought on what systems can learn/adapt to, I see no reason why a reliable tech system won't soon surpass one that allows THAT ONE DRIVER WE ALL KNOW from being on the road.

Bottom Line TLDR - AUVS will change the value of all downtown parking, and that alone will have a drastic effect on the "Urban Landscape"

 

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk, jesus, back to work.

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I still can't understand who most new, urban apartment buildings are not being designed to have easily repurposed parking garages, with flat floors.  I don't expect these spaces will be taken up with individual-owned vehicles in 10 or 20 years time and there's really not much that can be done with an angled parking garage when vehicle parking demand goes to zero.  It's at least possible to convert the garages with flat floors to another use. 

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So if I grab an AV for my ride home from work can I still stop by Publix on my way home to grab dinner. Will the car wait for me while I shop or do I need to order a 2nd car when I'm ready to go home. Or, if I'm in a hurry can I still swing by Taco Bell drive through. What if I'm doing a happy hour sort of thing with my workmates?

If I'm getting off my bar shift at 4:00 AM and want to stop by a "friends" house for a short visit- will the car wait in the parking lot/driveway. And if I don't want the neighbors to see the car can it wait around the corner?

Will my wife be able to track where my car was...?

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10 hours ago, AmIReal said:

So if I grab an AV for my ride home from work can I still stop by Publix on my way home to grab dinner. Will the car wait for me while I shop or do I need to order a 2nd car when I'm ready to go home. Or, if I'm in a hurry can I still swing by Taco Bell drive through. What if I'm doing a happy hour sort of thing with my workmates?

If I'm getting off my bar shift at 4:00 AM and want to stop by a "friends" house for a short visit- will the car wait in the parking lot/driveway. And if I don't want the neighbors to see the car can it wait around the corner?

Will my wife be able to track where my car was...?

Understand you're being a little tongue in cheek, but I think these are the interface questions that the market will decide. My subscription might only covers rides, waiting for up to 30 minutes is an additional x dollars, waiting for hours is a per hour charge. No doubt the ease of autonomous transportation will be made confusing by those hoping to squeeze every penny out of the consumer. 

As for the argument about where AVs park, every major city in America operates a rubber tired transportation system with peak time increases in fleet size. Some may have a downtown storage, others where land is cheaper. If the bus companies can figure it out, I'm sure the AV folks can too. 

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12 hours ago, AmIReal said:

So if I grab an AV for my ride home from work can I still stop by Publix on my way home to grab dinner. Will the car wait for me while I shop or do I need to order a 2nd car when I'm ready to go home. Or, if I'm in a hurry can I still swing by Taco Bell drive through. What if I'm doing a happy hour sort of thing with my workmates?

If I'm getting off my bar shift at 4:00 AM and want to stop by a "friends" house for a short visit- will the car wait in the parking lot/driveway. And if I don't want the neighbors to see the car can it wait around the corner?

Will my wife be able to track where my car was...?

Lesson #1, don't cheat on your wife. I know this is a facetious post, but in reality Jerry's point is the answer.  Things will work themselves out.

When the time comes for AV transportation, the market and how people use them will move the functionality.  If people want to stop at the Taco Bell drive through, they'll stop there.  I'm sure the vehicles will stay in areas of high use and leave areas of low use, likely dependent on the time of day and anticipated usage.  

Every town in America has empty stores and shopping malls where cars could park, usually those spots are proportionate to the size of the town.  Cities have parking garages that get less use at certain hours of the day or days of the week.

 

If you build it, they will come.  I just hope they build it in my lifetime and I think they will.

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10 hours ago, HankStrong said:

Lesson #1, don't cheat on your wife. I know this is a facetious post, but in reality Jerry's point is the answer.  Things will work themselves out.

When the time comes for AV transportation, the market and how people use them will move the functionality.  If people want to stop at the Taco Bell drive through, they'll stop there.  I'm sure the vehicles will stay in areas of high use and leave areas of low use, likely dependent on the time of day and anticipated usage.  

Every town in America has empty stores and shopping malls where cars could park, usually those spots are proportionate to the size of the town.  Cities have parking garages that get less use at certain hours of the day or days of the week.

 

If you build it, they will come.  I just hope they build it in my lifetime and I think they will.

Yes, facetious- although I prefer @Jerry95 saying "tongue in cheek". Bottom line, in today's world (at least here in Orlando) people use their cars in a myriad of ways and commuting is a small aspect of that.  I'm sure the functionality will develop over time, but it will require, as you said, a lot of how people use them to make it work. So, based on that, I don't think I'll see widespread use in my lifetime (I'm 50s). Maybe better luck with the generation 2 or 3 times removed from mine. I am more than willing to be wrong about it though.

10 hours ago, HankStrong said:

don't cheat on your wife

yeah, she agreed, but at least she laughed at my line of questions.

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4 hours ago, AmIReal said:

Yes, facetious- although I prefer @Jerry95 saying "tongue in cheek". Bottom line, in today's world (at least here in Orlando) people use their cars in a myriad of ways and commuting is a small aspect of that.  I'm sure the functionality will develop over time, but it will require, as you said, a lot of how people use them to make it work. So, based on that, I don't think I'll see widespread use in my lifetime (I'm 50s). Maybe better luck with the generation 2 or 3 times removed from mine. I am more than willing to be wrong about it though.

yeah, she agreed, but at least she laughed at my line of questions.

I made that same point in an earlier discussion of cars in Orlando/downtown with someone else and it was basically ignored in favor of the "cars bad!!! drivers bad people!!!" argument. And of course, let's not forget the trades workers, repairmen and contractors who use vehicles like pickup trucks and utility vans in the performance of their jobs, many of which get performed in and around the downtown area. How are AV's going to work for them? What do they do when roadways, streets are all modified for AV's and curbside parking is eliminated? 

Given how things usually work out in our world (EPCOT Center as envisioned vs what it turned out to be- being an example of what I'm talking about), I'm guessing the future will be sme mix of AV's and probably small,  one and two passenger electric vehicles that take up very little space.

Google Image search ..... elio motors. 

Those are gas powered but I could see them easily becoming electric/solar powered.

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7 hours ago, JFW657 said:

And of course, let's not forget the trades workers, repairmen and contractors who use vehicles like pickup trucks and utility vans in the performance of their jobs, many of which get performed in and around the downtown area. How are AV's going to work for them? What do they do when roadways, streets are all modified for AV's and curbside parking is eliminated? 

We've got to remember that AV implementation will never be a flip of a switch, it'll be a phased transition. Right now it'll be the Teslas of the world, then some agencies are going to convert highway lanes to AV only lanes and so forth.  Speeding up the process is only going to happen if there's a government backed pushed for green AV to combat emissions. I believe this is the year all new cars are required to have back up cameras. It'll be another 20 years before the last car without one is retired.

I'm sure most large companies will purchase commercial AVs that operate the same way as personal carriers and allow users to create road space as needed. Imagine how much safer highway construction and motorway-side vehicle repairs will be if all vehicles were programmed to clear the lane.  

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