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4 minutes ago, 123fakestreet said:

https://richmondbizsense.com/2022/03/25/new-plans-to-replace-public-safety-building-show-scaled-down-project/

 

RBS with some info. Says tower scaled down from 20 to 7 levels, but a little confusing because then it says it will be 12 stories in height. My guess is it was 20 stories with parking below grade and has been changed to 7 stories on top of parking above grade.

Net effect on skyline is from 20 down to 12, with the other two buildings going slightly shorter from 9 stories down to 7 and 8.

Always disappointing to see things scaled back, but this seems to happen a lot, have to expect it. Still thrilled that awful eyesore is being replaced with a major complex of 3 buildings including a 12 story one, that's some solid height, way more than the 2 stories that are there now.

I have to admit the 12 story building looks dated before it’s even been built as well. I don’t like the design. It looks like something from the 60s or 70s. I know it’s just a bunch of lines with no detail but I like to see detail in a rendering to know what we are really getting. That rendering is ver basic looking for that 12 story structure. 

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1 hour ago, 123fakestreet said:

https://richmondbizsense.com/2022/03/25/new-plans-to-replace-public-safety-building-show-scaled-down-project/

 

RBS with some info. Says tower scaled down from 20 to 7 levels, but a little confusing because then it says it will be 12 stories in height. My guess is it was 20 stories with parking below grade and has been changed to 7 stories on top of parking above grade.

Net effect on skyline is from 20 down to 12, with the other two buildings going slightly shorter from 9 stories down to 7 and 8.

Always disappointing to see things scaled back, but this seems to happen a lot, have to expect it. Still thrilled that awful eyesore is being replaced with a major complex of 3 buildings including a 12 story one, that's some solid height, way more than the 2 stories that are there now.

Way to look on the bright side, but it’s disappointing as hell and certainly doesn’t fit with what is supposedly coming to City Center.  I’d even say it’s not even close to being the best and maximum use of the block.  A lousy 7-story building?  Pul-eeze!  Everything about this project was downgraded!  There’s no better way to put it - this project is a HUGE DUD!  
 

Hope Capital City Partners doesn’t disappoint like this at Green City. 

Edited by eandslee
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Agreed.  Although everyone here would obviously prefer the shiny new 20-story building, it's going to beat the heck out of what's there now.  While that shouldn't be the standard, it's a start in what's been a pretty dead area of downtown for a lonnng time. 

Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good!

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My guess is that they haven’t had luck with the addl speculative office space in addition to VCU. I’m not entirely surprised. Also potentially, it doesn’t mean it can’t be adjusted higher in the future and they amend their submittals. When Gateway Plaza was announced I believe it was 15 and they added 3 and could have added more if the demand was there. 

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This is a colossal disappointment. The 20-story tower would have been a significant player on the downtown skyline - and while this may be technically 'better' than what currently constitutes Block D, this is NOT by ANY stretch the project that we all were anticipating would be a proper kickoff for the greater City Center redevelopment.

Questions abound: Did VCU (despite their assertion that they continue as participants) actually pull out of the project? The introduction of lab space looks like little more than a straight swap out for office space - and apparently, most (if not all) of the remainder of the office space was simply chopped. Is that correct?

Why was ground-level retail/commercial space eliminated? Again, this project was originally pitched as an anchor component of the new City Center district, particularly from the standpoints of density and street-level activity.

Why the declination of comment from Capital City Partners?

Given the high level of importance that this project has held relative to kickstarting the major overall City Center redevelopment, I would like more transparency as to exactly what has caused SUCH a severe truncation of plans. From an urban planning perspective, the only word I feel fits this is to say that the project has essentially been butchered. Some explanation from CCP would be helpful and appreciated.

Quite frankly, this strikes me -- from the standpoint of overpromise & underdeliver -- as an epic private-sector failure on par with the public-sector failure that was Navy Hill. I hope and pray this is NOT a harbinger of what we can expect if and when plans begin to roll out for the rest of City Center's redevelopment.

 

Edited by I miss RVA
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This is part of why Navy Hill failure was such a massive disappointment. It included the residential, multiple towers, etc.  Some people here have said we can do without the coliseum because they want dense high rise towers to fill the area. That's a nice goal, but do we really see that happening? This just got scaled back by 8 stories down to 12 and we think there's going to be developers lining up to build 5-6 more 20+ floor buildings in the area? 

Edited by 123fakestreet
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56 minutes ago, 123fakestreet said:

This is part of why Navy Hill failure was such a massive disappointment. It included the residential, multiple towers, etc.  Some people here have said we can do without the coliseum because they want dense high rise towers to fill the area. That's a nice goal, but do we really see that happening? This just got scaled back by 8 stories down to 12 and we think there's going to be 5-6 other developers lining up to build 20+ stories in the area? 

It's even arguable that 12 stories is a stretch - the primary building (I think) is checking in at seven stories (the five parking levels are to be below ground) - and the building is only supposed to be 123 feet tall, according to the most recently updated version of the story in RBS. Can we safely assume that height includes the mechanical box atop the building? Regardless, using 14-foot floor plates, that comes out to just under 9 stories tall. Using 15-foot floor plates, that works out to just about exactly 8 stories. So the scaling back is more like 12 stories - meaning roughly 60% of the building's original height has been lopped off.

This building is a joke - and quite frankly, I would just as soon the plug get pulled on this ENTIRE project altogether and we ride out these high construction costs and get something closer to what was originally proposed a year or two down the road. I'd rather wait a little while longer -- that block has housed the PSB for the past 68 years (according to the RBS article) - waiting another year or two won't kill us. It would be worth it to get something closer to what was originally proposed that the crap that's being offered now. Because if they build THIS disgusting thing, we're stuck with it.

To your point, @123fakestreet-- I'm VERY concerned that the absurdly high construction costs we're witnessing right now will have a SEVERE impact on ANY new development in City Center. This has been something I've been a bit worried about for a little while now - that something like costs getting SO out of control that suddenly projects that seemed like sure bets that would be transformative for downtown and for RVA suddenly start getting truncated or cancelled altogether. Idk why RVA seems SO sensitive to these kinds of things whereas other cities seem to have some kind of built-in immunity to it. I know it happens elsewhere, but RVA seems to have no way of fending it off. One small economic hiccup -- and grand projects are either halved or -- worse -- quartered (this one, 512 Hull...) or they're cancelled altogether.  Some of the gurus here point to the fact that the biggest driver is market size -- RVA just simply isn't BIG enough yet. I sometimes see this as a really bad chicken-egg cycle. RVA's market size isn't big enough yet for construction costs to be offset enough to handle taller/bigger projects. But in some ways, we need bigger projects (particularly residential projects) to meet housing demands as the city DOES grow. And we're not getting the supernova population growth because ... ???  And without the supernova growth, we don't get the projects. 

See where I'm going with this?

Edited by I miss RVA
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1 hour ago, 123fakestreet said:

This is part of why Navy Hill failure was such a massive disappointment. It included the residential, multiple towers, etc.  Some people here have said we can do without the coliseum because they want dense high rise towers to fill the area. That's a nice goal, but do we really see that happening? This just got scaled back by 8 stories down to 12 and we think there's going to be 5-6 other developers lining up to build 20+ stories in the area? 

The article was off, it is actually scaled down by 13 :(

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1 hour ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

I can't imagine VCU pulled the plug. If they did, the tower wouldn't be happening at all. They just don't have anyone else lined up. Construction costs are straining everything and lenders haven't really signed off on notable spec office in our market.

And @wrldcoupe4do I take it correctly that because of market size, RVA is NOT a good spec office development market because it's not big enough yet? Other markets that HAVE reached whatever size is the tipping point that the calculations work (Charlotte, Atlanta, Austin - and now, apparently Raleigh -- just to cite a few examples) tend to get quite a bit more office space built on spec, yes?  And is the market size (for this exercise) determined by the city population alone or by the entire MSA or CSA (as is applicable)? What constitutes the "market size" for a calculation such as this?

Edited by I miss RVA
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I’m going to be honest these high prices of construction materials and the shortage of workers both making these materials and on job sites is going to be a new normal sadly. It’s going to take twice as long to build something then what it used to be. We were supposed to have our first building done at Avery point by April 1st but now it won’t be ready until next year just way too much work to be done still. The delays are going to get even worse now that it’s impossible to find help in the trade industry. People don’t realize how critical the trade industry is it’s an industry that can’t be replaced with robots and sadly nobody wants to do that kind of work anymore. We are in a world of hurt in just a about every industry sadly. From teachers and nurses to trades and retail. I’m not sure how these jobs will end up being fulfilled one day. I’m really worried we are heading down a road where this is the new normal and there won’t be enough people to fill these industries back ever again. 

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7 minutes ago, Downtowner said:

I’m going to be honest these high prices of construction materials and the shortage of workers both making these materials and on job sites is going to be a new normal sadly. It’s going to take twice as long to build something then what it used to be. We were supposed to have our first building done at Avery point by April 1st but now it won’t be ready until next year just way too much work to be done still. The delays are going to get even worse now that it’s impossible to find help in the trade industry. People don’t realize how critical the trade industry is it’s an industry that can’t be replaced with robots and sadly nobody wants to do that kind of work anymore. We are in a world of hurt in just a about every industry sadly. From teachers and nurses to trades and retail. I’m not sure how these jobs will end up being fulfilled one day. I’m really worried we are heading down a road where this is the new normal and there won’t be enough people to fill these industries back ever again. 

Thanks so much for the brutally honest insight into the industry, @Downtowner... It may be really tough & troubling for us to hear this, but it's something we need to hear and bear in mind. Here's hoping that the 'new normal' you worry may be in the making never comes to pass - and that we return to the 'old' normal of more reasonable construction costs and fully staffed crews raising buildings at the pace they were not all that long ago.

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It’s more complicated than this, but would you build a house twice as big than you can afford because you might get a job that pays you more in the future? Would the bank give you a mortgage if you couldn’t afford to repay the loan but maybe if you get a new job after you close on the house you would be fine?  
They are building what gets the project going it seems. They probably have an obligation to VCU to do so. 

And again overly simplifying - adding residential on top sounds nice, but it completely complicates the building design and systems and will make it even more expensive and take more time which makes it again more expensive.

We are in a weird time, I wouldn’t wish this project away. The momentum from things happening is more important than getting the perfect project, at least for me.

 

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3 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

Thanks so much for the brutally honest insight into the industry, @Downtowner... It may be really tough & troubling for us to hear this, but it's something we need to hear and bear in mind. Here's hoping that the 'new normal' you worry may be in the making never comes to pass - and that we return to the 'old' normal of more reasonable construction costs and fully staffed crews raising buildings at the pace they were not all that long ago.

I’m hoping there is a time where the labor shortage is over with because it’s hard to watch family and friends see and deal including myself. My wife is a nurse at vcu I’m an electrician like I have said before and both professions human interaction is huge. 

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17 hours ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

It’s more complicated than this, but would you build a house twice as big than you can afford because you might get a job that pays you more in the future? Would the bank give you a mortgage if you couldn’t afford to repay the loan but maybe if you get a new job after you close on the house you would be fine?  

 

@wrldcoupe4 As you said, it's more complicated than this. But it begs the question, given this discussion about spec office space: isn't this EXACTLY what developers in other -- yes, admittedly LARGER -- markets/cities do? I find it very difficult to believe that developers in cities like Charlotte, Atlanta, Raleigh - just to name a few - haven't been building -- or don't build -- oodles of office space on spec. My question isn't so much a "why aren't they (Cap City Partners) doing it" - it's more trying to ferret out why it seems to work just fine in plenty of other cities - but in RVA it's as rare as geese that actually lay real, 24 carat gold eggs.

Edited by I miss RVA
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49 minutes ago, 123fakestreet said:

Agree. Not a popular opinion here but I'd also rather have infill of any kind than just something really tall. We have sooo many vacant lots, let's get those filled in before we worry too much about height. I'd rather have 5 vacant lots filled with 4 story buildings than 1 vacant lot filled with a 20 story building.

Once all those empty lots start drying up the height will come.

Playing devil's advocate - and so once all those empty lots are filled with 4-story buildings and we're stuck with a bunch of 4-story buildings that NO ONE is going to want to tear down because they're all (relatively) new, exactly WHERE will the height-that-is-to-come go?

 

Oh right ... down to Charlotte. 

Edited by I miss RVA
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I don’t care about height either.  That’s not to say that I wouldn’t pee in my pants if I woke up on Monday to see that a 50 story building was planned for Franklin Street.

These buildings are DC and Madison sized buildings.  They aren’t small and I’d take either of those cities a thousand times over before Charlotte. 

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11 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

Playing devil's advocate - and so once all those empty lots are filled with 4-story buildings and we're stuck with a bunch of 4-story buildings that NO ONE is going to want to tear down because they're all (relatively) new, exactly WHERE will the height-that-is-to-come go?

 

Oh right ... down to Charlotte. 

1  start to fill up, not completely filled. 2 there are still plenty of decrepit buildings and semi filled lots that could easily be cleared to build something new.  3 even non totally decrepit buildings get cleared for new ones. Dominion just imploded a big building. Monroe tower probably coming down. If the demand is there room will be made for newer bigger stuff, I wouldn't worry about running out of room. Point is this city has TONS of room to grow all over the place even without demolishing things. Let's just fill in the totally bare spots first.

Edited by 123fakestreet
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3 hours ago, 123fakestreet said:

1  start to fill up, not completely filled. 2 there are still plenty of decrepit buildings and semi filled lots that could easily be cleared to build something new.  3 even non totally decrepit buildings get cleared for new ones. Dominion just imploded a big building. Monroe tower probably coming down. If the demand is there room will be made for newer bigger stuff, I wouldn't worry about running out of room. Point is this city has TONS of room to grow all over the place even without demolishing things. Let's just fill in the totally bare spots first.

All true. How about we do both - fill in the bare spots AND get some size and height going! :tw_thumbsup::tw_smiley:

What appears to be happening along Grace Street gives me hope for getting height to fill in all those surface lots. 

To your point: at what point will these vacant lots realistically start drying up? I honestly don't see downtown construction going at SUCH a breakneck pace (given the ridiculous cost of construction right now) that 15, 20, 25 vacant lots will get filled in just a few years' time. So your best guesstimate is...  10 years? 15? 20? 25?

Edited by I miss RVA
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1 hour ago, I miss RVA said:

To your point: at what point will these vacant lots realistically start drying up? I honestly don't see downtown construction going at SUCH a breakneck pace (given the ridiculous cost of construction right now) that 15, 20, 25 vacant lots will get filled in just a few years' time. So your best guesstimate is...  10 years? 15? 20? 25?

We seem to be at an inflection point right now which may well cool things off quite a bit for many years. But if we were to get back on course in the next few months of where we were, I could see a lot of them drying up within 10 years.  Look at how much has been built in just the last 10.  The big areas are the Bottom along the train tracks, Coliseum, several blocks around the Jefferson, several blocks centered around Cary and 4th, and southern end of Manchester.  Every one of those areas are at least in the talk stage already with the exception of the last two.  If we hit all those, a Gilpin redevelopment, Manchester has been on pace for like 2 new projects every year, and you know many smaller projects are going to fill in other spots along the way.  The only thing left are those lots at Cary and 4th.    If that's the big area left I have to see something going in there toward the end of that ten year period.  Again, that's if we get back on track, and not 100% of the empty lots, just getting to the point where they are smaller, much more scarce, not in such prime areas.

Edited by 123fakestreet
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1 hour ago, Brent114 said:

My guess is 25+ years.  It takes a log of building to really fill up a place.  Even with all of the construction in Scott’s Addition, it really doesn’t t look or feel much different than it did 6 years ago. 

Annnnnnnd... I'll be turning 85 in 25 years :tw_joy:  THAT'S why I'm pressing SO urgently for height NOW. I want to live long enough to not just see it, but also to be able to enjoy it in SOME manner of halfway decent health (physical and cognitive).  Saying it in my best Elvis voice - I'm on the clock, baby! 

Edited by I miss RVA
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