Diamond Area / Hermitage Rd Corridor / Ownby District

[123fakestreet]

1 hour ago, DowntownCoruscant said:

Whoops, the article actually says it would go to council in “the fall.” I guess I read September into that but it could mean October or November, I suppose.

The original timeline said a final decision would be made "summer 2022."  So I would expect them to send it to council mid September.  That's when the clown show begins, feet get dragged and anything good about the plans gets ruined.

I'm just curious at what point they release the 3 plans to the public, of if they only release the winner to the public when it goes to council.

[Icetera]

3 hours ago, 123fakestreet said:

I'm just curious at what point they release the 3 plans to the public, of if they only release the winner to the public when it goes to council.

I would bet just the winner to avoid outside interference.

[I miss RVA]

And somewhat surprising to get it same-day: here's the RT-D's reporting.

https://richmond.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/3-finalists-for-diamond-redevelopment-meet-deadline/article_8b0ee414-b1fb-50da-9958-b59f36cf8054.html

 

[Hike]

Had a comparison  just sink in and it's that CoStar is said to be investing about a half billion dollars on their campus of about 4 acres and the Diamond district, of over 67 acres, is said to be investing about 1.5 to 2 billion per Bizsense.  So, is Costar burying gold, like their soon to be next door neighbor, or is the Diamond district about to spread their dollars very thinly?  My guess is the latter or perhaps the Bizsense cost isn't covering specific components of the project, as an example, would a hotel's cost not be included in this as it's their cost?  Anyone else have insight on this?  

From Bizsense article:

"A question from one of the teams stated its total development budget, including construction costs, would be between $1.5 billion and $2 billion. The team behind each question is not identified in the document."

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, Hike said:

Had a comparison  just sink in and it's that CoStar is said to be investing about a half billion dollars on their campus of about 4 acres and the Diamond district, of over 67 acres, is said to be investing about 1.5 to 2 billion per Bizsense.  So, is Costar burying gold, like their soon to be next door neighbor, or is the Diamond district about to spread their dollars very thinly?  My guess is the latter or perhaps the Bizsense cost isn't covering specific components of the project, as an example, would a hotel's cost not be included in this as it's their cost?  Anyone else have insight on this?  

From Bizsense article:

"A question from one of the teams stated its total development budget, including construction costs, would be between $1.5 billion and $2 billion. The team behind each question is not identified in the document."

Good question, actually. A couple of follow-up questions:

1.) Does property value drive any of the differential in the projected cost? Obviously downtown riverfront property is WAYYYYYYYYY higher valued than anything in the Diamond District.

2.) Should we then lower our expectations for what will actually be built in the Diamond District? I can't help but wonder if a "lower" investment (based on acreage) is indicative that there will probably be a whole lot of "meh" being built (meaning, limited verticality, perhaps even a limited number of actual buildings - not a ton of density - some, but not what we'd like to see - regardless of what the original spec drawings looked like. After all, it's cheaper to bake in a lot of green spaces, plazas, etc., as opposed to going for broke with density (I would say "and height", but I think we all know that ain't gonna happen...))

Edited June 29, 2022 by I miss RVA

[Hike]

4 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

Good question, actually. A couple of follow-up questions:

1.) Does property value drive any of the differential in the projected cost? Obviously downtown riverfront property is WAYYYYYYYYY higher valued than anything in the Diamond District.

2.) Should we then lower our expectations for what will actually be built in the Diamond District? I can't help but wonder if a "lower" investment (based on acreage) is indicative that there will probably be a whole lot of "meh" being built (meaning, limited verticality, perhaps even a limited number of actual buildings - not a ton of density - some, but not what we'd like to see - regardless of what the original spec drawings looked like. After all, it's cheaper to bake in a lot of green spaces, plazas, etc., as opposed to going for broke with density (I would say "and height, but I think we all know that ain't gonna happen...))

I think both your thoughts are very accurate and likely to be the case here.

[I miss RVA]

44 minutes ago, Hike said:

I think both your thoughts are very accurate and likely to be the case here.

[Hike]

19 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

It’s going to be better than what’s there, so with that in mind, I’m very happy and look forward to seeing it happen.

[wrldcoupe4]

1 hour ago, I miss RVA said:

Good question, actually. A couple of follow-up questions:

1.) Does property value drive any of the differential in the projected cost? Obviously downtown riverfront property is WAYYYYYYYYY higher valued than anything in the Diamond District.

2.) Should we then lower our expectations for what will actually be built in the Diamond District? I can't help but wonder if a "lower" investment (based on acreage) is indicative that there will probably be a whole lot of "meh" being built (meaning, limited verticality, perhaps even a limited number of actual buildings - not a ton of density - some, but not what we'd like to see - regardless of what the original spec drawings looked like. After all, it's cheaper to bake in a lot of green spaces, plazas, etc., as opposed to going for broke with density (I would say "and height", but I think we all know that ain't gonna happen...))

1) we know the value for riverfront land. They paid $20m. Not a huge needle mover for the $460M investment. High rise construction is a lot more expensive than low rise per square foot, and CoStar’s number is likely including FF&E, renovations to the existing building, etc. 

2) it will be meh. At least 2 of the plans look meh on paper. There may be some cool elements or anchor components to be fair. Trying to build on 60 acres quickly in a market the size of Richmond will lead to meh, at least initially. 60 acres is the equivalent of 30 blocks downtown for context (downtown blocks are about 2 acres, so maybe slightly fewer blocks including the streets but you get me point hopefully)

Edited June 29, 2022 by wrldcoupe4

[eandslee]

Never trust a rendering!  That’s the lesson I’m learning.  It almost never turns out the way the renderings show.  9 out of 10 times the project is scaled back.  Then, for this project we’ll have to factor in the buffoonery that city council is going to cause that will reduce the project’s scale.  I’ve already seen people make predictions on social media.  We’ll see how this actually turns out.  Boy, I hope the city pulls through on this project!  Get something done right for once so that it doesn’t become another case study on why the city can’t do anything!  Instead, let it become a case study in how the city got it right and succeeded on a major project!

[I miss RVA]

18 minutes ago, eandslee said:

Never trust a rendering!  That’s the lesson I’m learning.  It almost never turns out the way the renderings show.  9 out of 10 times the project is scaled back.  Then, for this project we’ll have to factor in the buffoonery that city council is going to cause that will reduce the project’s scale.  I’ve already seen people make predictions on social media.  We’ll see how this actually turns out.  Boy, I hope the city pulls through on this project!  Get something done right for once so that it doesn’t become another case study on why the city can’t do anything!  Instead, let it become a case study in how the city got it right and succeeded on a major project!

One of the comments in RBS caught my attention. It's a bit of a doomsayer kind of comment - but what scares me is that I can actually see this coming to pass, particularly if past is prologue...

"I’m sorry to even write this but from what it looks like, this process looks like it’s going to be a huge mess. This won’t be voted on until the end of the year at the earliest by city council – then how long will it take from there to get a stadium built if it does get approved? Once a proposal is presented to city council – council will likely defer a vote for public input/meetings on the proposal just like what was done with the Navy Hill proposal. If there is ANY public money involved/TIF financing, etc., there will be the usual huge amounts of backlash against it with the normal arguments of what about the schools, what about the roads, what’s wrong with the current stadium, etc. Not to mention the in-fighting between districts along with the Richmond politics which would affect voting on this. I would be pleasantly surprised if a proposal actually moves forward and happens. If I was Lou Dibella, I’d have plan B ready & be looking at buying land outside in the counties near the interstate as a backup – structuring a deal similar to what Art Silber/Potomac Baseball, LLC did up in Fredericksburg."

Pulling out one line in particular:

If there is ANY public money involved/TIF financing, etc., there will be the usual huge amounts of backlash against it with the normal arguments of what about the schools, what about the roads, what’s wrong with the current stadium, etc

In other words - NIMBY Time... and, sadly, we know there'll be plenty of folks who will be itching to crack open a couple of six packs of NIMBY on this project. 

Wow - to potentially go through all of that - and THEN only get "meh" out of it... 

@wrldcoupe4-- to one of your points: here's that old bugaboo again - the burr in my saddle that just irks the living daylights out of me about RVA not growing fast enough: "... in a market the size of Richmond..."

If you felt the earth shaking just now, it was just me screaming in frustration. 

Edited June 30, 2022 by I miss RVA

[wrldcoupe4]

To be fair. Can you name many cities that can quickly develop 30 city blocks with high rises and lots of density?

[I miss RVA]

53 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

To be fair. Can you name many cities that can quickly develop 30 city blocks with high rises and lots of density?

Yes - Chicago.  The New East Side/Lake Shore East development(s).

Mind you - it's not the equivalent 30 blocks, more like 12-16 square blocks (and idk how much of a difference there is in city block sizes between RVA and Chicago).. AND it depends on your definition of "quickly" because it's taken 18-19 years so far and counting. Most of the entire swath along the south bank of the Chicago River from the back end of the Illinois Center complex (a couple of blocks east of Michigan Avenue) all the way to Lake Shore Drive, and from the river south to Randolph Street was nothing but parking lots and abandoned lowrise buildings (save a handful of legacy highrises closer to Michigan Avenue) when I moved here 21 years ago. I worked for a company located in the Illinois Center for a couple of years and had a window seat to some of the construction. Buildings started sprouting like mushrooms in the early-mid 2000s. Beginning with the first two buildings that were completed in 2005, there have been 10 high rises constructed -- the tallest of which was completed in 2020, reaching 93 stories with another reaching 82 stories. Two more buildings are currently under construction and two more buildings have been proposed. The timeline of the master-planned mixed-use redevelopment had to be extended out more than once because additional buildings kept getting added. One of the proposed buildings is 80 stories tall. The neighborhood includes a park AND a school! Of the buildings built in the last 17 years, five are condominium towers, three are apartment towers, one is an office building and one is a pure mixed use - hotel/condo/apartment.

I honestly think "quickly" needs to be a very relative concept regarding the Diamond District - it seems that what would be realistic is for it to be built out in phases with the "quickly" portion involving the ballpark and a couple of buildings immediately adjacent to it. Then over time, build out along Arthur Ashe Boulevard... then along Hermitage Road... Robin Hood Road... DESIGN everything to be built cohesively - but trying to build out the equivalent of 30 square blocks all in one shot - I can't see that working. Jesus - it's taken almost two decades for this huge development in Chicago to come together - and it likely doesn't have as large a footprint from an acreage standpoint as does the Diamond District. 

Edited June 30, 2022 by I miss RVA

[wrldcoupe4]

Yes that’s my point. The problem with the way the city has concocted this is that they are putting the cost for the ballpark on the developer. That’s a big money loser. So they have to scale the construction as fast as possible to cover the repayment of the costs for the stadium. If the region, VCU, and the Squirrels built a stadium that freed up the rest of the site for development, we’d have a much more robust development. That ship sailed so we get what we get, which is still a million times better than what we have today. 

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Yes that’s my point. The problem with the way the city has concocted this is that they are putting the cost for the ballpark on the developer. That’s a big money loser. So they have to scale the construction as fast as possible to cover the repayment of the costs for the stadium. If the region, VCU, and the Squirrels built a stadium that freed up the rest of the site for development, we’d have a much more robust development. That ship sailed so we get what we get, which is still a million times better than what we have today. 

It's a shame they went down this path with this. I'm suspecting the city REALLLLLY got spooked by what happened with Navy Hill. No way in hell they were going to be on the hook for public money for a sports facility. Burned once already - and the city, I suspect, wasn't about to get burned again.

So if this was a real public-private partnership - like you said, the region, the Squirrels and VCU, then developer would have a TON of money to really go great guns on the other parts of the development. I just hate to think of all this build-up, all this press, all this emphasis the city is putting on this development - only for it to end up being "meh" simply because the developer has to throttle back because of costs.

This raises the question: how is the city going to handle the City Center redevelopment? I know the private sector/free market will be a huge driver in it - and I'm guessing the city is simply going to "direct" things, set the zoning up, etc., - and then turn it loose to... to... to who?

Edited June 30, 2022 by I miss RVA

[Urbs42]

9 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

In other words - NIMBY Time... and, sadly, we know there'll be plenty of folks who will be itching to crack open a couple of six packs of NIMBY on this project. 

This project will be an acid test for the competency of city government. If it bricks this layup,  whiffs this softball, shanks this tee-shot of a redevelopment, the ramifications will be lasting and  severe. 

I agree there will be NIMBY critics, but this makes too much sense for their objections to kill it off, or even scale it back much. There is nothing controversial here like the baggage of a casino or the back-room dealings of Navy Hill. It's drawn bids from 15 developers! 

I'm not expecting to be blown away by the final product, but there are zero excuses not to deliver. 

 

 

[Shakman]

Sorry to think this but our city officials will screw this up since they have one thumb up their nose and the other up their arss.  

[Hike]

5 minutes ago, Shakman said:

Sorry to think this but our city officials will screw this up since they have one thumb up their nose and the other up their arss.  

History says you’re probably right but feel differently about this one and am hopeful for a better outcome this time.

[Downtowner]

41 minutes ago, Hike said:

History says you’re probably right but feel differently about this one and am hopeful for a better outcome this time.

I will say this I will believe it when I see it. I don’t feel hopeful in anything the city does at the moment. When you need even 7 votes to pass this thing there’s three people still on council who I see screwing this thing up. Stephanie lynch kristen nye and reva trammel. Those three alone will make sure Richmond sucks even more. Until two of the three or all three leave nothing will ever change. I’ve gotten very doom and gloom lately. Feel like this whole country is about to go for a crash landing which worries me and makes me feel like we are about to go into the dark ages. 

[Hike]

12 minutes ago, Downtowner said:

I will say this I will believe it when I see it. I don’t feel hopeful in anything the city does at the moment. When you need even 7 votes to pass this thing there’s three people still on council who I see screwing this thing up. Stephanie lynch kristen nye and reva trammel. Those three alone will make sure Richmond sucks even more. Until two of the three or all three leave nothing will ever change. I’ve gotten very doom and gloom lately. Feel like this whole country is about to go for a crash landing which worries me and makes me feel like we are about to go into the dark ages. 

I feel ya and worry about all you’ve said here as well, just holding my breath and hope we hold it together despite all that’s going on. For me, it’s a hike with my wife, listening to nature and tuning it out the best we can to preserve sanity.  

[I miss RVA]

45 minutes ago, Hike said:

I feel ya and worry about all you’ve said here as well, just holding my breath and hope we hold it together despite all that’s going on. For me, it’s a hike with my wife, listening to nature and tuning it out the best we can to preserve sanity.  

I'm with you, brother. My "preserving-sanity/break from life" hobby is sitting down and rolling a few games of cards and dice baseball on my tabletop. Strat-O-Matic, Dynasty League, Pursue the Pennant, Fall Classic and Statis Pro (the old Avalon Hill game) are my five favorite baseball games. Did a fun replay of the 1971 World Series (Baltimore vs Pittsburgh) a few weeks ago. Just like the real thing (which I remember watching on TV when I was 9 years old), it went 7 games. UNLIKE the real thing, Baltimore won.  There are some good basketball games I enjoy playing as well.

[Hike]

7 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

I'm with you, brother. My "preserving-sanity/break from life" hobby is sitting down and rolling a few games of cards and dice baseball on my tabletop. Strat-O-Matic, Dynasty League, Pursue the Pennant, Fall Classic and Statis Pro (the old Avalon Hill game) are my five favorite baseball games. Did a fun replay of the 1971 World Series (Baltimore vs Pittsburgh) a few weeks ago. Just like the real thing (which I remember watching on TV when I was 9 years old), it went 7 games. UNLIKE the real thing, Baltimore won.  There are some good basketball games I enjoy playing as well.

Oh my bucs, would love it if they could return to that height again.

[I miss RVA]

8 minutes ago, Hike said:

Oh my bucs, would love it if they could return to that height again.

My younger brother is a DIEHARD DIEHARD DIEHARD fan of the Buccos. Win, lose or draw, he watches them faithfully. Boy they had a team and a half back in the day (as in the '60s and '70s) - I'm surprised they didn't win more than three World Series from 1960 through '79 - given that they had Clemente, Stargell, Sanguillen, Oliver, Hebner, Mazeroski - and some GREAT pitching - Doc Ellis, Steve Blass, Bob Moose (I often wonder how many times the announcers made some reference to "Mr. Moose" and followed up with a reference to "Mr. Greenjeans" )

Go figure - ever since I started watching MLB in earnest in 1970, I've been a diehard fan of the Yankees. 

[Hike]

30 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

My younger brother is a DIEHARD DIEHARD DIEHARD fan of the Buccos. Win, lose or draw, he watches them faithfully. Boy they had a team and a half back in the day (as in the '60s and '70s) - I'm surprised they didn't win more than three World Series from 1960 through '79 - given that they had Clemente, Stargell, Sanguillen, Oliver, Hebner, Mazeroski - and some GREAT pitching - Doc Ellis, Steve Blass, Bob Moose (I often wonder how many times the announcers made some reference to "Mr. Moose" and followed up with a reference to "Mr. Greenjeans" )

Go figure - ever since I started watching MLB in earnest in 1970, I've been a diehard fan of the Yankees. 

Watched game 7 in 1979 in Pittsburgh with my mom at her brothers house in downtown Pittsburgh. We went outside and beat on pans honked horns with the championship. As a teenager, that cemented my following of all Pittsburgh sports. Mind you, my dad was from DC and wanted me to love the Skins, took me to games, but with the black and gold etched in my mind, he didn’t stand a chance…

Edited June 30, 2022 by Hike

[Downtowner]

1 hour ago, I miss RVA said:

I'm with you, brother. My "preserving-sanity/break from life" hobby is sitting down and rolling a few games of cards and dice baseball on my tabletop. Strat-O-Matic, Dynasty League, Pursue the Pennant, Fall Classic and Statis Pro (the old Avalon Hill game) are my five favorite baseball games. Did a fun replay of the 1971 World Series (Baltimore vs Pittsburgh) a few weeks ago. Just like the real thing (which I remember watching on TV when I was 9 years old), it went 7 games. UNLIKE the real thing, Baltimore won.  There are some good basketball games I enjoy playing as well.

yes been trying to keep it on sports myself and tune out the news. I’m an atlanta Braves fan so I’m spoiled with the teams we have had over the years. My uncle is a diehard orioles fan as is my best friend that I grew up with. I tell both of them man that’s a rough life. Luckily my uncle who will be 60 in November grew up watching guys like brooks Robinson Jim Palmer, boog Powell and of course cal Ripken. Been some greats coming through baltimore and I love going to Camden yards to games. But I’m honestly really excited for football season both college and nfl. I’m praying to the good lord the lions finally wake up and surprise some people. I always say keep talking bad about them one day the lions will wake up and roar like no other. I’m a Georgia fan for college football so I’ve been spoiled with my teams from the state of Georgia. Also excited for hbo hard knocks with the lions being the team this year. Going to be fun with the way dan Campbell is and his personality.