Belk to Declare Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

[Windsurfer]

6 hours ago, Phillydog said:

  Downtown stores closed for a number of reasons inlcuding maintenance and upkept, and a shrinking population.  A new or restored structure with an eye toward "experience" in a location with a rapidly growing population does work in dense urban locations like Uptown (or Southend).

And, rent.  How much do they charge per foot for retail there versus suburbia?

[kermit]

5 hours ago, CLT2014 said:

The 28202 zip code (pretty much everything directly in Uptown) is estimated at 13,500 people. 
In 2019 the Center City Partners estimated the population of South End, Uptown, Midtown, and West End to collectively be 32,300. I do agree a walkable location for Belk could be beneficial, but think South End would be more successful than Uptown -> particularly on the weekends when people are more likely to shop for clothing as South End has a larger residential population than Uptown and is developing adjacent retail for synergies (Atherton Mill, Design Center, Rail Yard, et.). 

No one really knows good population statistics for uptown. I am not picking on CLT2014's numbers at all, just reporting from a different source:

Popstats, a commercial demographic data vendor which is used by most discount retailers in site selection (but not department stores like Target, they use data from Experian last I checked) reports the following:

Uptown (inside 277, this is a bit broader than 28202)

Population = 18,327
Median HH Income = $87,993
Workplace Employees = 56,334 (this is significantly less than what CCCP reports -- I would wager that their numbers for employment are better)

Southend (bounded by Morehead, Mint, Summit, S Tryon, Remont and South blvd)

Population = 6,612 (I am always shocked this number is so low, BUT commercial data vendors do a VERY bad job of estimating population in new build / transitional areas like Southend)
Median HH Income = $76,115
Workplace Employees = 11,753

I am not suggesting these numbers are the most accurate, just that these numbers are exactly what some retailers see (and thus believe to be true). Having said that they would be more likely to look at data for a radius around a specific site rather than the neighborhood boundaries I have drawn. A store like Target or Belk would probably use a 3 or 5 mile radius as their trade area. I did not look at the numbers today, but using a 3-5 mile radius Southend would NOT look much different (demographically) than an Uptown site to a retailer -- location decisions between the two neighborhoods would probably be driven by real estate rather than demographics.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by kermit

[Cityplanner]

I suspect that the problem uptown is that the physical layout is not conducive to shopping: blocks of uninterrupted storefronts, accessible to anyone.

Downtown Greenville has plenty of mall chains in it (and a Staples, which is in a complex that people likely drive to).  Downtown Greenville has block after block of uninterrupted storefronts (and trees to shade crowds on hot days).  And the buildings were built to be stores, mostly.  So it's made for retailers.

Uptown Charlotte probably has much better demographics (more people who live in the urban core, and they're wealthier), but less retail.  Maybe because storefronts are split between the Overstreet Mall and the street, and uptown blocks are mostly office buildings, not set up for retail?  So it's not made for retailers because if they locate on the street they'll miss the crowds in Overstreet Mall, and it's not made for individuals who shop because it requires walking past a lot of blank walls and office lobbies, not stores.

[Richhamleigh, DC]

8 hours ago, kermit said:

No one really knows good population statistics for uptown. I am not picking on CLT2014's numbers at all, just reporting from a different source:

Popstats, a commercial demographic data vendor which is used by most discount retailers in site selection (but not department stores like Target, they use data from Experian last I checked) reports the following:

Uptown (inside 277, this is a bit broader than 28202)

Population = 18,327
Median HH Income = $87,993
Workplace Employees = 56,334 (this is significantly less than what CCCP reports -- I would wager that their numbers for employment are better)

Southend (bounded by Morehead, Mint, Summit, S Tryon, Remont and South blvd)

Population = 6,612 (I am always shocked this number is so low, BUT commercial data vendors do a VERY bad job of estimating population in new build / transitional areas like Southend)
Median HH Income = $76,115
Workplace Employees = 11,753

I am not suggesting these numbers are the most accurate, just that these numbers are exactly what some retailers see (and thus believe to be true). Having said that they would be more likely to look at data for a radius around a specific site rather than the neighborhood boundaries I have drawn. A store like Target or Belk would probably use a 3 or 5 mile radius as their trade area. I did not look at the numbers today, but using a 3-5 mile radius Southend would NOT look much different (demographically) than an Uptown site to a retailer -- location decisions between the two neighborhoods would probably be driven by real estate rather than demographics.

 

 

Thanks for the numbers.  The trade area would be larger though.  Again, the idea is a destination, an experience, like the one's in the links I posted.  Does Restoration Hardware have a small trade area or are expecting visitors from a regional area and beyond?  Does a Mast General Store count just on customers from the immediate store area?  

I have no idea if the economics even work or, if Charlotte or any city without a strong, established covention and tourism trade, could pull off a 21st century department store as they are in Berlin, Paris, New York, etc., but, I hope Belk survives and I think to survive, they are goning to have to think outside the box.

[kermit]

I have a ton of work to do today so I am distracting myself with pointless and unsolicited urban planet stuff.

For the hypothetical Belk Urban store here are some arbitrary trade area stats to go with the specific neighborhood stats provided above. These are all for a 3 mile radius (this is probably close to what Target might use for TA analysis, it is probably a bit too small for Belk if they had sited any new stores in the past 10 years). All data from Popstats using their current year estimates

                                                                                        Population             MHI                        Workers      # HH w Income over $100k

Uptown (Tryon and Trade)                              118,517               $70,325                 169,346             20,136

Southend (Camden and West)                     116,642               $73,813                 184,925              20,847

Southpark (Fairview and Sharon)                 87,329               $93,482                    62,945              18,922

 

Its been a while since I have run these numbers, I am surprised that, in terms of demographics, Southpark is the least attractive of these trade areas at a 3 mile scale. High income HH have grown significantly in intown markets over the past few years.

Edited February 3, 2021 by kermit

[videtur quam contuor]

As someone who moved to Dilworth in 1974 I can say from experience that within 3 blocks of where I lived, Kingston and Cleveland, the household income, minus government transfers and public support was near zero for many addresses at that time. Median in the low four figures, absolutely.

(This relates, in some way, to my post in Off Topic about changes in retail over time.)

Edited February 3, 2021 by tarhoosier