Census 2020

[Architect]

6 hours ago, MDC26 said:

That's crazy.  We were the most undercounted state.  If that 5% number is true, that would put the population at 3,164,444 bumping us ahead of Nevada to be 33rd most populous state.  If that rate was the same across the state, Little Rock's population would have 212,721 and Pulaski Co would have been 419,081.

I had been meaning to do that math!  Thanks!

[theman]

The Census Bureau released population estimates as of July 1, 2021 yesterday. Little Rock’s population shrunk from 202,514 to 201, 998. North Little Rock’s population shrunk to  64,633 to 64,162. Conway’s population rose from to 63,656 to 65,121 so it is now the second largest city in the metro by these estimates.

Edited May 28, 2022 by theman

[Walls99]

7 hours ago, theman said:

The Census Bureau released population estimates as of July 1, 2021 yesterday. Little Rock’s population shrunk from 202,514 to 201, 998. North Little Rock’s population shrunk to  64,633 to 64,162. Conway’s population from to 63,656 to 65,121 so it is now the second largest city in the metro by these estimates.

Based on the recent light shed on their severe undercounting in the state of Arkansas, how reliable are these numbers? Why the sudden population decrease?

[Architect]

They also released MSA (metro) population estimates for 2021, and the Little Rock MSA increased 0.39% to 750,936.

[Architect]

Metroplan has updated its population estimates for Central Arkansas for 2022.  Candidly, it's surprisingly robust in my opinion, given the predictions/outlook of slower growth.

• Little Rock
  • 2020 - 202,591
  • 2022 - 205,525 (up 1.4%)
• Pulaski County
  • 2020 - 399,125
  • 2022 - 404,009 (up 1.2%)
• Central Arkansas (LR-NLR-Conway MSA)
  • 2020 - 748,031
  • 2022 - 760,933 (up 1.7%)
• Summary
  • Total net change for the MSA was up almost 13,000 people in two years, of which...
    •  +11,502 due to net in-migration (this is a good stat)
    • + 821 due to natural increase (births over deaths)
  • If accurate, this rate of growth over 2 years is a higher clip than the metro experienced from 2010 to 2020

Link:  https://metroplan.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/DemographicReview2022-v2.pdf

Promising trends!

[MDC26]

6 hours ago, Architect said:

Metroplan has updated its population estimates for Central Arkansas for 2022.  Candidly, it's surprisingly robust in my opinion, given the predictions/outlook of slower growth.

• Little Rock
  • 2020 - 202,591
  • 2022 - 205,525 (up 1.4%)
• Pulaski County
  • 2020 - 399,125
  • 2022 - 404,009 (up 1.2%)
• Central Arkansas (LR-NLR-Conway MSA)
  • 2020 - 748,031
  • 2022 - 760,933 (up 1.7%)
• Summary
  • Total net change for the MSA was up almost 13,000 people in two years, of which...
    •  +11,502 due to net in-migration (this is a good stat)
    • + 821 due to natural increase (births over deaths)
  • If accurate, this rate of growth over 2 years is a higher clip than the metro experienced from 2010 to 2020

Link:  https://metroplan.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/DemographicReview2022-v2.pdf

Promising trends!

That does look good.  It is impressive that Little Rock has seen continued to grow over every decade, while many other similar sized cities in the South have lost population (Shreveport, Jackson MS, Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile)

[Architect]

On 3/24/2023 at 3:38 PM, MDC26 said:

That does look good.  It is impressive that Little Rock has seen continued to grow over every decade, while many other similar sized cities in the South have lost population (Shreveport, Jackson MS, Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile)

Totally agree.  Honestly, I get tired of the what is actually pretty solid growth among our peer cities inevitably being drowned out by all of the NWA hoopla.  People are simple-minded.  It's like "if X is doing great, Y must be doing bad" - it's like a zero sum game in the minds of most people!

[MDC26]

19 hours ago, Architect said:

Totally agree.  Honestly, I get tired of the what is actually pretty solid growth among our peer cities inevitably being drowned out by all of the NWA hoopla.  People are simple-minded.  It's like "if X is doing great, Y must be doing bad" - it's like a zero sum game in the minds of most people!

Yes.  It's great that the economy and growth is going gangbusters up in NWA, but like Rex Rex Nelson frequently says:  To reach the state's full potential, we must have a strong and flourishing capital city.  

[Architect]

The U.S. Census Bureau released population estimates for 2022.  Lots of interesting data, but one interesting takeaway is that Conway is the state’s fastest-growing city in 2022.

See article from Talk, Business & Politics:  https://talkbusiness.net/2023/05/u-s-census-bureau-conway-states-fastest-growing-city-in-2022/?mc_cid=426f6d3022&mc_eid=5fcda0ee91

Little Rock MSA is estimated to have grown to 757,615 (+10,000 above 2020 - less than Metroplan estimates, which is about 762,000)

NWA MSA is estimated to have grown to 576,403 (+30,000 above 2020)

[theman]

16 hours ago, Architect said:

The U.S. Census Bureau released population estimates for 2022.  Lots of interesting data, but one interesting takeaway is that Conway is the state’s fastest-growing city in 2022.

See article from Talk, Business & Politics:  https://talkbusiness.net/2023/05/u-s-census-bureau-conway-states-fastest-growing-city-in-2022/?mc_cid=426f6d3022&mc_eid=5fcda0ee91

Little Rock MSA is estimated to have grown to 757,615 (+10,000 above 2020 - less than Metroplan estimates, which is about 762,000)

NWA MSA is estimated to have grown to 576,403 (+30,000 above 2020)

It’s interesting that a city in central Arkansas is the fastest growing city in the state when it’s been a city in northwest Arkansas for several years.

[Architect]

On 5/20/2023 at 1:06 AM, theman said:

It’s interesting that a city in central Arkansas is the fastest growing city in the state when it’s been a city in northwest Arkansas for several years.

Exactly.  I think NWA is over hyped and Central is under appreciated.  I don't think anyone needs to count out the potential of greater Little Rock over the long-term.

[Architect]

The U.S. Census Bureau released county and MSA population estimates for 2023:

• Central Arkansas (LR-NLR-Conway MSA)
  • 2020 - 748,038
  • 2022 - 764,045 (up 2.14%) - net gain of over 16,000
• NWA
  • 2020 - 546,725
  • 2023 - 576,967 (up 7.98%) - net gain of over 43,000

It will be interesting to see Metroplan's estimates through 2023, which tend to be higher (and more accurate) that US Census Bureau.  I believe they release their estimates later in the year.

[Arkanzin]

Updated Metropolitan Statistical Area and Combined Statistical Area population information from the US Census Bureau for Arkansas cities and comparable regional areas.   Apologies for the crappy formatting. Copying from excel loses something in the transfer. 

All Arkansas MSAs other than Hot Springs and Texarkana continue to grow.  Regionally, it appears that Little Rock is doing better than Jackson and Shreveport, although growth is slow. NWA continues to grow at a good clip.

As for the CSAs, Little Rock, Jonesboro, and Tulsa are growing while all others are shrinking. 

On another note, why is there no CSA for Northwest Arkansas? 

 

 

Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023
Geographic Area	April 1, 2020 Estimates Base	Population Estimate (as of July 1)
		2020	2021	2022	2023
.Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR Metro Area	546,725	549,937	563,008	576,967	590,337
.Fort Smith, AR-OK Metro Area	227,205	227,207	228,266	229,951	231,280
.Hot Springs, AR Metro Area	100,173	100,258	100,393	99,982	99,784
.Jonesboro, AR Metro Area	134,207	134,573	134,485	135,316	136,390
.Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR Metro Area	748,038	748,990	751,986	757,768	764,045
.Texarkana, TX-AR Metro Area	147,524	147,485	146,749	146,185	145,907
.Jackson, MS Metro Area	619,989	618,896	614,737	610,703	610,257
.Joplin, MO-KS Metro Area	200,784	200,908	201,950	203,137	204,787
.Memphis, TN-MS-AR Metro Area	1,345,436	1,346,172	1,342,637	1,338,667	1,335,674
.Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Metro Area	393,409	392,511	388,930	384,943	383,295
.Springfield, MO Metro Area	475,433	476,371	481,693	486,931	491,053
.Tulsa, OK Metro Area	1,015,338	1,017,350	1,025,813	1,034,048	1,044,757
Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Combined Statistical Areas in the United States and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023
Geographic Area	April 1, 2020 Estimates Base	Population Estimate (as of July 1)
		2020	2021	2022	2023
.Hot Springs-Malvern, AR CSA	133,217	133,333	133,472	133,131	133,042
.Jonesboro-Paragould, AR CSA	179,945	180,437	180,826	181,724	183,133
.Little Rock-North Little Rock, AR CSA	899,670	900,232	902,218	907,146	913,536
.Jackson-Vicksburg-Brookhaven, MS CSA	699,611	698,268	693,106	688,102	687,257
.Memphis-Clarksdale-Forrest City, TN-MS-AR CSA	1,389,915	1,390,417	1,386,073	1,381,304	1,377,852
.Shreveport-Bossier City-Minden, LA CSA	430,375	429,394	424,868	420,470	418,533
.Tulsa-Bartlesville-Muskogee, OK CSA	1,134,141	1,136,211	1,144,983	1,153,593	1,165,140

 

 

[MDC26]

On 3/19/2024 at 9:21 AM, Arkanzin said:

 

On another note, why is there no CSA for Northwest Arkansas? 

 

I don't believe NWA is part of a CSA.  CSA combine two separate Metropolitan areas or a metropolitan area with a micropolitan area.  Fayetteville doesn't have a micropolitan area nearby to combine with.  

[Architect]

On 3/21/2024 at 12:23 PM, MDC26 said:

I don't believe NWA is part of a CSA.  CSA combine two separate Metropolitan areas or a metropolitan area with a micropolitan area.  Fayetteville doesn't have a micropolitan area nearby to combine with.  

This.  You beat me to it.  There are no close, other metros near NWA to qualify for a CSA.  Fort Smith is too large and too far away to be considered.

The Little Rock CSA includes Searcy and Pine Bluff (but not Hot Springs).