Prediction & Speculation Thread

[smeagolsfree]

Hey folks,

 

This is sort of a Coffee House type subject, but as we say here, "that's where threads go do die".

This give you guys a place to makes some predictions, speculate about where you think some things might happen and what might happen in the near or distant future. We sort of do that on a yearly basis at the first of the year and we can still do that. 

You guys can ask questions, pose predictions, etc., and discuss pro or con.

But this one is a little different and I will start it off with some questions??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Where will the first 20 story outside the big loop in Davidson County be? what I mean by Loop is inside the inner interstate loop and inside the 440 loop. So it will have to be out side of that ring.

Next , Which County or city that rings Nashville will get the first high-rise 20 stories or above?

[KJHburg]

2 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

Hey folks,

Where will the first 20 story outside the big loop in Davidson County be? what I mean by Loop is inside the inner interstate loop and inside the 440 loop. So it will have to be out side of that ring.

Next , Which County or city that rings Nashville will get the first high-rise 20 stories or above?

1.maybe near or at Green Hills Mall 

2, for sure Williamson County and possibly Franklin in terms of high rise apartment tower but could be an apartment tower.  The income, the demand, the office parks are all there to make this happen.  

[TheRaglander]

37 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

1.maybe near or at Green Hills Mall 

2, for sure Williamson County and possibly Franklin in terms of high rise apartment tower but could be an apartment tower.  The income, the demand, the office parks are all there to make this happen.  

From my understanding, Williamson has strict limits on height to keep the "rolling hills" feel.  At one point it was 11 stories.  Not sure where it is now but don't count on 20+ stories in the Cool Springs area.

Edited August 8, 2021 by TheRaglander

[KJHburg]

3 minutes ago, TheRaglander said:

From my understanding, Williamson has strict limits on height so keep the rolling hills feel.  At one point it was 11 stories.  Not sure where it is now but don't count on 20+ stories in the Cool Springs area.

did not know that so that may be shot then I would say it would a long time as the tallest office buildings and apartment towers we have in suburban Charlotte as in some of the best submarkets.  Williamson County is probably the best submarket that could support that but if they dont allow then not sure where then.   Unless they change their minds in the future. 

[TheRaglander]

Just now, KJHburg said:

did not know that so that may be shot then I would say it would a long time as the tallest office buildings and apartment towers we have in suburban Charlotte as in some of the best submarkets.  Williamson County is probably the best submarket that could support that but if they dont allow then not sure where then.   Unless they change their minds in the future. 

I honestly believe Cool Springs would have been like a Buckhead, GA if the planners allowed it with lots of big towers for office and residential.  Apartments were very scarce in Franklin until just recently.  

[KJHburg]

We just had our first high rise apartment tower 16 stories completed in Ballantyne which is a premier suburban area like Cool Springs.  It has about 4 million sq ft of office space nearby and like I said this is our first high rise tower that far out of the urban core.  Towerview at Ballantyne | Luxury Apartments in Ballantyne, NC   High rise apartments are not cheap anywhere that is why they are mostly in the urban core but this is truly a suburban tower but it near luxury homes country clubs etc. 

[smeagolsfree]

That’s why I had to say 20 because we have upwards of 12 to 15 stories already in Green Hills and Cool Springs, not to mention several taller apartment buildings spread out around Metro that are over 10. I have to look to see the height of those too but some are close to maybe 15 stories.

[smeagolsfree]

Vertis Green Hills is 18, so that is the tallest outside the core.

[smeagolsfree]

I think there could be a chance that the next group of high-rises could be in Wilson County. With all of the attention they are getting it may only be a matter of time before they get high-rise condo or apartment building. 

There could also be a office park at some point in Wilson with all of the recent developments there. It could be be Cool Springs. 2.0, but Wilson seems to be a little more progressive that Williamson.

[samsonh]

32 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

Vertis Green Hills is 18, so that is the tallest outside the core.

The answer is green hills if it gets through zoning unscathed. Cool springs in 5-10 years. There is so much undeveloped land out there still, not sure it makes a lot of sense to spend to go higher at this point.

[Luvemtall]

5 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

Hey folks,

 

This is sort of a Coffee House type subject, but as we say here, "that's where threads go do die".

This give you guys a place to makes some predictions, speculate about where you think some things might happen and what might happen in the near or distant future. We sort of do that on a yearly basis at the first of the year and we can still do that. 

You guys can ask questions, pose predictions, etc., and discuss pro or con.

But this one is a little different and I will start it off with some questions??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Where will the first 20 story outside the big loop in Davidson County be? what I mean by Loop is inside the inner interstate loop and inside the 440 loop. So it will have to be out side of that ring.

Next , Which County or city that rings Nashville will get the first high-rise 20 stories or above?

Murfreesboro, it is quickly becoming a major city. Land prices are skyrocketing and it seems logical that for ROI developers will need to start going vertical.

[WebberThomas4]

How tall is the condo building in Ashland City?

[smeagolsfree]

I think they are 12. 

[titanhog]

I actually like the City Center in M’boro…as far as design.  But it’s only 15.  I could see M’Boro getting a 20 story somewhere along Medical Center Parkway.  Just depends on how badly they want to push corporate relocations.

They really need to build some more “exclusive” residences in Rutherford County, though.  More in the $2 Million+ range.

[Luvemtall]

14 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

I think there could be a chance that the next group of high-rises could be in Wilson County. With all of the attention they are getting it may only be a matter of time before they get high-rise condo or apartment building. 

There could also be a office park at some point in Wilson with all of the recent developments there. It could be be Cool Springs. 2.0, but Wilson seems to be a little more progressive that Williamson.

One can only hope! I can definitely see your point on this one, the I-40 corridor is ripe for office and residential/ mix use development. Was there not talk about a office park in Lebanon at the I-40 & I-840 interchange next to the new hotels that recently opened? I think it was proposed by the same developers of the Galleria and office buildings in Cool Springs . And I believe that they are looking at office development at Wilson Farms at 109 in Lebanon. It’s easy access to BNA and downtown makes it a no brainer , plus Lebanon Airport would be a great executive/ corporate jet alternative.

[smeagolsfree]

1 minute ago, Luvemtall said:

One can only hope! I can definitely see your point on this one, the I-40 corridor is ripe for office and residential/ mix use development. Was there not talk about a office park in Lebanon at the I-40 & I-840 interchange next to the new hotels that recently opened? I think it was proposed by the same developers of the Galleria and office buildings in Cool Springs . And I believe that they are looking at office development at Wilson Farms at 109 in Lebanon. It’s easy access to BNA and downtown makes it a no brainer , plus Lebanon Airport would be a great executive/ corporate jet alternative.

That one slips my memory as I have enough trouble remembering what happens in Davidson County anymore much less anywhere else. Maybe someone else can remember.

[jmtunafish]

11 minutes ago, Luvemtall said:

One can only hope! I can definitely see your point on this one, the I-40 corridor is ripe for office and residential/ mix use development. Was there not talk about a office park in Lebanon at the I-40 & I-840 interchange next to the new hotels that recently opened? I think it was proposed by the same developers of the Galleria and office buildings in Cool Springs . And I believe that they are looking at office development at Wilson Farms at 109 in Lebanon. It’s easy access to BNA and downtown makes it a no brainer , plus Lebanon Airport would be a great executive/ corporate jet alternative.

Without revealing too much, I work for the state department of education, and I can tell you that a huge problem that Lebanon has is its public schools.  They are abysmal.  Wilson County likes to tout the quality of its schools, but their scores are propped up by Mt Juliet, and it's not even close.  Take MJ out of the equation, and Wilson County's scores would be among the bottom third in the state.  Williamson has arguably Tennessee's best public school system which is a big factor in its ability to attract corporate relocations with ease.  Williamson also has some excellent private schools and is close to some of Davidson's more prestigious private schools.  There's no equivalent in Wilson County.  Mt Juliet could see some of that corporate growth, but until Lebanon does something about its lousy public schools, it'll probably continue to be relegated to lower-wage distribution and factory jobs.  Not that there's anything wrong with that--the world needs distribution centers and factories--I just don't think it's very realistic for us to think that Lebanon will become another CoolSprings anytime soon. 

I promise I'm not trying to be argumentative or offensive, and I hope I didn't come across that way.

[nashville born]

Bold and WAG Predictions 

1.  1001 Church becomes a reality AND hits the 600 ft mark.

2.  The 2nd and Church lot (bordered also by 1st and Bank streets) is selected as the site for Nashville's new tallest.  Will be mixed use with ground level retail, first 20 floors office, and next 30 floors residential.

3.  Pinnacle will modify its plans and shoot well past the 600 ft. mark.

4.  The eastern most edge of the Beaman property from Broadway to McGavock is the first segment to be purchased and a two tower project is announced.

5.  350 Deaderick is resurrected.

6.  Buckingham Gulch is resurrected.

7.  Little bit of a hedge with this one...Tony G's mystery tower is announced as a new tallest and/or turns out to be Paramount.

8.  Oracle and Amazon unite to  build two sites of affordable housing and one residential tower.

9.  In the area bordered by the JR Parkway to the west and south, the Cumberland to the east, and the railway to the north, there will be at least two moderate height towers announced (between 250-350 ft).

10.  The first 20 story tower outside the loop will go in the area of the Trinity Lane corridor.  That's my second place guess (first was already taken...M'boro)

 

Edited August 9, 2021 by nashville born

[Mr_Bond]

For question 1, I will go with Metro Center.  Zoning regs will be changed to allow the height there and there's lots of parking lots begging to be replaced by a tower.  Because it sits between downtown, the Oracle campus (and future development around it), and the Trinity Lane explosive growth that is starting, Metro Center will where the next height is.

For question 2, I think @titanhog is right about The Boro.  That city benefits from MTSU, major manufacturing operations in the county, and 840.

Edited August 9, 2021 by Mr_Bond

[smeagolsfree]

To elaborate on the Gibson thread comment I made.

Just the core drilling at the Market Street site speaks volumes as they seemingly are moving forward on two lots that were on hold a short time ago. One being the Big Cummins lot that is the entire block at 12th & Demonbreun and the other at 915 Division. The lot under contract I think is the lot that the Smithfield project was to have gone on. It is for sale at 28 million.

Again Planning seems to be handing height variances out like candy now, so I think we will be seeing a lot more projects. I also think and have heard we will probably start seeing a lot of mid-rise buildings between Church & Charlotte. Every lot is going to start to be in play.

I also think the remaining lots on KVB will be looked at very hard very soon. Not to mentions Shelby's property. For those of you who do not know that is across the the street from Yee Haw. One of our posters owns a good deal of land n that area.

1 hour ago, nashville born said:

2.  The 2nd and Church lot (bordered also by 1st and Bank streets) is selected as the site for Nashville's new tallest.  Will be mixed use with ground level retail, first 20 floors office, and next 30 floors residential.

Not zoned for a tall boy as it sits in the Historic section and not in the Core, so that site cannot happen. Hate to rain on the parade nashville born.

That is one of the reasons I posted the DTC bonus height thread. Bos2Nash did raise some interesting points on the core frame zone and the height is in fact unlimited to 1400 adn some odd feet. He shared that at the meet Saturday. You have to check every box in the Bonus height category which is almost impossible, excluding inclusionary housing which is no longer a category.

10 minutes ago, Mr_Bond said:

For question 1, I will go with Metro Center.  Zoning regs will be changed to allow the height there and there's lots of parking lots begging to be replaced by a tower.  Because it sits between downtown, the Oracle campus (and future development around it), and the Trinity Lane explosive growth that is starting, Metro Center will where the next height is.

They came within 2 floors of the with Vertis and will be within 3 with Eden House, but the two remaining parcels on that block ae zoned for 15. It could happen but I don't think so. It would take a change of minds adn hearts in that neighborhood. Probably have to be a high-rise full of retired nuns or something like that.

 

[nashville born]

Dang it.  Forgot about that historic district restriction.  Okay, I'm not one to be married to a prediction, so I'll alter my number 2.  to the lot at 7th and Union for the new Nashville tallest!

[donNdonelson2]

51 minutes ago, nashville born said:

Dang it.  Forgot about that historic district restriction.  Okay, I'm not one to be married to a prediction, so I'll alter my number 2.  to the lot at 7th and Union for the new Nashville tallest!

That 7th & Union property is part of the Tennessee Tower campus. Unlikely to be offered up for development.

[SumnerCountian]

I will just say that nothing fun ever happens in Sumner County, though we do have a tower crane up Gallatin. I think it is a first.

[Luvemtall]

7 hours ago, jmtunafish said:

Without revealing too much, I work for the state department of education, and I can tell you that a huge problem that Lebanon has is its public schools.  They are abysmal.  Wilson County likes to tout the quality of its schools, but their scores are propped up by Mt Juliet, and it's not even close.  Take MJ out of the equation, and Wilson County's scores would be among the bottom third in the state.  Williamson has arguably Tennessee's best public school system which is a big factor in its ability to attract corporate relocations with ease.  Williamson also has some excellent private schools and is close to some of Davidson's more prestigious private schools.  There's no equivalent in Wilson County.  Mt Juliet could see some of that corporate growth, but until Lebanon does something about its lousy public schools, it'll probably continue to be relegated to lower-wage distribution and factory jobs.  Not that there's anything wrong with that--the world needs distribution centers and factories--I just don't think it's very realistic for us to think that Lebanon will become another CoolSprings anytime soon. 

I promise I'm not trying to be argumentative or offensive, and I hope I didn't come across that way.

Good valid points. But two things, 1) Lebanon city has its own school system, so the rest of Wilson including Mt Juliet are in the county system . 2) I do believe schools are a very important factor, but I also believe it’s not the only! . A lot of people don’t even look at schools and who’s to say if class A office is built in or around Lebanon/ Wilson County that the folks working there would even live there. Plus it takes a lot of good taxpayers money to have good schools , which Williamson has in spades. If more class A office / mix use is built and good housing the tax burden will be less then it is , so more can go to a better school system

[jmtunafish]

2 hours ago, Luvemtall said:

Good valid points. But two things, 1) Lebanon city has its own school system, so the rest of Wilson including Mt Juliet are in the county system . 2) I do believe schools are a very important factor, but I also believe it’s not the only! . A lot of people don’t even look at schools and who’s to say if class A office is built in or around Lebanon/ Wilson County that the folks working there would even live there. Plus it takes a lot of good taxpayers money to have good schools , which Williamson has in spades. If more class A office / mix use is built and good housing the tax burden will be less then it is , so more can go to a better school system

Lebanon's city schools are K-8.  Lebanon HS is run by Wilson County and drags the scores down for the whole county, at least at the high school level.  I've talked to teachers and administrators at LHS who are frustrated that LSSD doesn't do a better job preparing students for high school.  I suspect both entities should share the blame.

If/When CoolSprings gets built out or too expensive, I think Rutherford will be the next to see more corporate relocations and Class A office parks.  Hendersonville and Gallatin are probably not far from that, either.

Edited August 10, 2021 by jmtunafish