Prediction & Speculation Thread

[smeagolsfree]

We will see!

[PruneTracy]

1 hour ago, smeagolsfree said:

They are grandfathered in until they do major upgrades to the lots. Not required unless it is a new lot I think or if they change the fencing. Not 100% sure.

I may be getting my zoning codes mixed up and I'm too lazy to look but I think any change to more than 25% of the parking area triggers the requirement to design to new standards (parking capacity as well as landscaping/buffering).

[smeagolsfree]

I can’t remember all of the zoning and you may be right so until they do upgrades, they are grandfathered in. That may exclude resurfacing though. Just not sure. I can’t keep up with all of the codes and if I did I could work for Metro codes as they seem to really need the help right now.

[nashville born]

Based on the message that something is coming, I want to have some fun by guessing in two categories, known and unknown.  If the something is from the already anticipated projects, I'm guessing it's news on either Avalon, Hensler, or Gulch Central.  If it's unknown, I'm guessing it's a tower announcement at either the former Fairmont site, the KVB/Hermitage lot, or the surface lot at Rosa and Church.  Just wild guesses again for fun.  As Sgt. Shultz said, I know nothing!

[smeagolsfree]

Here is a different take on the predictions and speculations and a not so good one. This is an article about how tech jobs are leaving Austin. Could we be heading in the same direction? Just  cause and effect issues, but some of the same ones we are seeing here.

https://theamericangenius.com/editorials/why-tech-talent-is-in-the-process-of-abandoning-austin/

 

[nashwatcher]

1 hour ago, smeagolsfree said:

Here is a different take on the predictions and speculations and a not so good one. This is an article about how tech jobs are leaving Austin. Could we be heading in the same direction? Just  cause and effect issues, but some of the same ones we are seeing here.

https://theamericangenius.com/editorials/why-tech-talent-is-in-the-process-of-abandoning-austin/

 

Realistically what can we do as a city to allow young people to have a shot at home ownership? Encourage denser condo/townhome development all around the core? There’s a lot of industrial land that could be utilized for this purpose if we invested in some of our underdeveloped corridors (Murfreesboro Rd for example)

[downtownresident]

11 minutes ago, nashwatcher said:

Realistically what can we do as a city to allow young people to have a shot at home ownership? Encourage denser condo/townhome development all around the core? There’s a lot of industrial land that could be utilized for this purpose if we invested in some of our underdeveloped corridors (Murfreesboro Rd for example)

This. I think this is why we’re starting to see the large townhome projects pop up along West Trinity, and we’ll see more fill in along other corridors. The city needs to pair this with sidewalk/transit investment and encourage a mix of uses through zoning to make these new neighborhoods more walkable/less car centric. 

[MLBrumby]

1 hour ago, smeagolsfree said:

Here is a different take on the predictions and speculations and a not so good one. This is an article about how tech jobs are leaving Austin. Could we be heading in the same direction? Just  cause and effect issues, but some of the same ones we are seeing here.

https://theamericangenius.com/editorials/why-tech-talent-is-in-the-process-of-abandoning-austin/

 

That’s the big downside of having your boom fueled by highly mobile young people. They’re not settled anywhere and their careers aren’t yet fully established. Many tech jobs can be done remotely now too. 

[Binbin98]

7 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

Here is a different take on the predictions and speculations and a not so good one. This is an article about how tech jobs are leaving Austin. Could we be heading in the same direction? Just  cause and effect issues, but some of the same ones we are seeing here.

https://theamericangenius.com/editorials/why-tech-talent-is-in-the-process-of-abandoning-austin/

 

Unlikely this is happening in Nashville at the moment as Nashville has yet to establish itself as a tech hub like Austin has done. Austin literally has rents higher than cities like Chicago, Atlanta and Miami currently, so this probably plays a major factor into these types of jobs leaving.

[MLBrumby]

I agree. Right now, the technology curve in Nashville is just now rising.  The city could be a beneficiary of the folks leaving Austin as it alreadyf is rom California and Washington expats. I'd still like to see some actual statistics, but I expect Dallas will benefit the most from those leaving Austin. It's a steady, large market with a comparatively low cost of living and a solid tech sector. 

[Rick Dalton]

That article also strikes me as mostly anecdotal, in the same way there were anecdotal articles about NYC being killed by COVID (obviously not true).

That being said, I also had a suspicion there would be a push back to Austin. When you have guys like Elon Musk and Joe Rogan leading the charge, it seemed like there was a level of impulsiveness that cannot be sustained. Once you get there you realize it’s not the promised land (nowhere is).

I don’t think Nashville has reached the same fever pitch. I could actually see some of Austin spilling off to Nashville / Charlotte.

[Bos2Nash]

While agree we are not on the level of Austin, we (and by "we" i mean city and state officials) need to have the foresight in that we are on the same curve/trajectory. We have the opportunity to see what Austin has done and learn from what they are going through currently. I just hope we figure it out before our future plans cross the $10 billion price tag line.

[PillowTalk4]

So, this is not abut the 50, 60 and 65 story buildings I keep hearing about?  One in SoBro, one near Broadwest and  the other on Church Street (not the pocket park)?  

Rumors 

Edited September 13, 2021 by PillowTalk4

[Mr_Bond]

Here is the link to the study referenced in the article posted by @smeagolsfree.  I've not read through the methodology so my comments will have to be based on the hope that these academic researchers did the math right.  It looks to me like some knowledge of the methodology might be important but I don't have time to read that now.

As noted, Austin is 2nd at a 51% premium.  Running down the list we find Atlanta at 38%, Charlotte at 36%, Memphis at 35%, Tampa at 31%, and Nashville at 28%.  We are 31st in the list.

https://business.fau.edu/departments/finance/real-estate-initiative/housing-market-ranking/housing-top-100/

[Luvemtall]

1 hour ago, PillowTalk4 said:

So, this is not abut the 50, 60 and 65 story buildings I keep hearing about?  One in SoBro, one near Broadwest and  the other on Church Street (not the pocket park)?

Rumors 

Wait!!! What? Where you hearing about these towers? 

[nashville born]

1 hour ago, PillowTalk4 said:

So, this is not abut the 50, 60 and 65 story buildings I keep hearing about?  One in SoBro, one near Broadwest and  the other on Church Street (not the pocket park)?

Rumors 

Still love that song!!!  Reminds me of the summer of '86 at Tougaloo College's Summer Science Program.  I was a rising high school senior.  Awesome time. 

Okay, carry on.

[smeagolsfree]

 Some of those are new to me!

[MLBrumby]

The only one I've heard of was The Paramount, and that's dead. 

[smeagolsfree]

I was going to comment, but better not, because I will end up getting myself in trouble regardless of which one I comment on if I know about it or not.

I may know more than I know that I know If that can make sense.

[TheSound]

I just hope one of these rumors is the Broadway/West End split site.  The tallest building west of the interstate should rise there, something truly iconic.  Nothing less.  

[PillowTalk4]

2 hours ago, PillowTalk4 said:

So, this is not abut the 50, 60 and 65 story buildings I keep hearing about?  One in SoBro, one near Broadwest and  the other on Church Street (not the pocket park)?  

Rumors 

Quoting myself to let people know this was a joke about how rumors about proposed buildings get started... thus the inclusion of the link with the song in it etc... 

Sorry... 

[Luvemtall]

35 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

I was going to comment, but better not, because I will end up getting myself in trouble regardless of which one I comment on if I know about it or not.

I may know more than I know that I know If that can make sense.

Oh wow! Don’t want you getting into any trouble…. But ? Do any of these have anything to do with the rumors of corporate relocations ? 
morsels …. Crumbs …. Hints.. please wizard shake the 8 ball !! 

2 minutes ago, PillowTalk4 said:

Quoting myself to let people know this was a joke about how rumors about proposed buildings get started... thus the inclusion of the link with the song in it etc... 

Sorry... 

well then, that just ruin my day! Ha ha , jk it’s all good .. moving on. 

[TheSound]

20 minutes ago, PillowTalk4 said:

Quoting myself to let people know this was a joke about how rumors about proposed buildings get started... thus the inclusion of the link with the song in it etc... 

Sorry... 

What's crazy is that just 2 or 3 years ago, everyone would've instantly known it was a joke.  Now?  Hey, maybe there's something to some of this!  Haha.  Give it another 2 or 3 years.

[smeagolsfree]

Magic Eight Ball says “ask me again later”

[nashville born]

21 hours ago, PillowTalk4 said:

Quoting myself to let people know this was a joke about how rumors about proposed buildings get started... thus the inclusion of the link with the song in it etc... 

Sorry... 

I didn't put much into the rumors comment.  Yet I absolutely reacted to the link.  I was serious....loved that song.  Thanks for taking me back down memory lane!