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Prognostications for the second half of 2022 - Richmond Development


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Okay folks - this is something we did over July 4th last year - and what with it being the Fourth, I figured it was time to dust off the crystal ball and look ahead to the second half of the year and see what everyone thinks could be on the horizon for RVA development through the remainder for 2022.

So we officially kick off the second half of the year. After a fairly eventful and surprising first half of the year in Richmond's development, there's no better time than the present to quickly review what's taken place so far and to weigh in with our predictions for what we expect to see throughout the remainder of 2022. The biggest difference between now and last year has been impactful: inflation-driven spikes in construction costs present a huge speedbump for RVA development was far less significant at this time last year. With a veritable bonanza of project announcements occurring throughout the second half of last year and in Q1 of this year, things have slowed a little on that front - not stopped, but the pace has fallen off slightly from where we were a year ago. (This even as developers have filed a ton of paperwork to confirm zoning for given parcels, to get demo permits, request zoning changes - etc, indicating there's plenty more in the works for down the road...) 

A LOT of anticipated projects are underway. THANKFULLY!

In Manchester, the Commodore is going full speed ahead. The Tidewater is just about to hit the home stretch. The Box is growing bigger and better each week. Papers have been filed to demolish the Silos. Upzoning of specific parcels to TOD-1 and B4 have been approved in Manchester. The Rivers Edge II site property has changed hands, with a deep-pocked, NYC development group the new owners.

North of the James, the Opus is closing in on the finish line. Parc View is at the tower crane stages. Bakery Lofts have broken ground. Barring anything unforseen, CoStar should be breaking ground in September. In Scott's Addition, the Soda Flats have broken ground. The Otis is closing in on the finish line, as is the tower portion of the Icon. Novel is underway north of the Acca Bridge. The West Broad corridor from I-195 to the city/county line at Staples Mill has been rezoned TOD-1.

The city is in the next phase of the Diamond District redevelopment, preparing to make a choice of which group will get the job. City Center rezoning is working its way through City Hall.

LOTS of good ACTIVITY is happening. so with that said,  what projects do you think will grab headlines during the 2nd half of 2022? Will the Admiral's applications (FINALLY!!) make it through the city - and upon doing so, will the project get underway? Will the Silos be demo'd before the end of this year, hopefully preparing the Manchester riverfront for (HOPEFULLY) what could be Manchester's tallest building? Will Tom Papa hit the gas pedal on any of his previously announced projects? Of the midrise projects in the Hull Street corridor, which ones will we see break ground? What other Scott's Addition projects will break ground between now and December 31? What will happen in the next phases with the Diamond District? As that progresses, will the city begin to put some muscle behind redevelopment in City Center? Or is that more realistically a push-off for the city until the Diamond District is set?

Will the back half of this year be a time mainly of active construction, or will we be surprised by new projects that might be built downtown (Monroe Ward, for example) or in Scott's or in Manchester? What unexpected surprise announcement(s) do you see potentially unfolding during the second half of this year? 

So - as was this case at this time last year, it's time to crank up ye ol' crystal balls & don our Merlin hats - and see what we can come up with for the rest of 2022. As we did earlier this year, we can revisit this next January, to see how the year turned out.

OKAY, GENTS... LET'S DO THIS!!! :tw_thumbsup:

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While the Diamond District won't be perfect by standards, it will be very well done by the city, with some buildings in the range of 8ft - 12ft with various amenities. City Center is a bit iffy; I want to say it will go well, but that area's streets may have to just be demolished and be built to let development organically happen to a sense...might squeeze a hotel or apartment building in there. I'm very positive that Co-Star will go through with its plans and revolutionize the skyline, and west broad street will continue to be hot in terms of development. I think the real power keg for development will be spring rock green, that area in its self has a lot of permits for construction... anyways, see you guys in a couple of hours.

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1 hour ago, Child2021 said:

While the Diamond District won't be perfect by standards, it will be very well done by the city, with some buildings in the range of 8ft - 12ft with various amenities. City Center is a bit iffy; I want to say it will go well, but that area's streets may have to just be demolished and be built to let development organically happen to a sense...might squeeze a hotel or apartment building in there. I'm very positive that Co-Star will go through with its plans and revolutionize the skyline, and west broad street will continue to be hot in terms of development. I think the real power keg for development will be spring rock green, that area in its self has a lot of permits for construction... anyways, see you guys in a couple of hours.

Downtown hotel: I'd love to see that big 23-25-story, 572-room Hyatt Regency convention hotel go up right here at 6th and what would be E. Clay Street if the city were to reconstitute it north of Blues Armory. There are a number of holdovers from the old Navy Hill plan I'd love to see come to pass downtown - and they've been largely baked into the City Center Small Area Plan - which is encouraging. Somehow I don't see that happening in the second half of this year - but it's something that I wonder if it might be on the table for some time in 2023?

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I know I'm more of a lurker on this site, but I'll jump in and say what I want to see happen. 

I'd really like to see some more activity going on in Rockets Landing. I'm hopping Fulton Yard gets started soon. I have high hopes for the retail space in that building and think it's very much needed. 

In my own neighborhood of Church Hill I'm hoping we see some progress on smaller projects. I want Kleyman to start working on the apartment buildings that are on Government Rd, and I hope we see renderings for his other apartment plans on Glenwood Ave. I want to see the infill project on 3101 Marshall St. get started. And finally, I'm hoping we see some more progress on 304 N. 21st Street. 

 

 

 

Edited by Jawless
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@Jawless- I'm with you looking forward to Fulton Yard getting underway, hopefully soon. Ditto all the many many infill projects in greater Church Hill - LOTS of great small projects that are slowly but surely filling in vacant blocks and corners.

@Richmonopoly-- same here, re: residential tower(s) along the Canal. I think Locks 7 and 8 are Tom Papa projects. Not that I think it's necessarily realistic to see this happen, but it WOULD be amazing to see him hit the start button for the Locks tower (the 13-story part of the project) while at the same time launching South Falls II.  How cool would that be?!

As for LEGO - if they were to move their HQ from Connectitut to RVA, that's in all likelihood a decade off. Once they build their factory and really engage with and become fully integrated into the greater RVA metro community (the ad campaign of "RVA Is the Best City Ever" is EXACTLY the kind of engagement I want to see happening a LOT more!!) - I think if we push hard enough, play our cards right and give LEGO enough incentives, there's at least better than a "puncher's chance" that we could pull their headquarters to the River City (well, at least to the metro).

@ancientcarpenter-- I'd LOVE to see a LEGO tower in RVA (be it downtown or in the Diamond District) designed to look like it was made from LEGO blocks. Given some of the cool architecture of highrises we see in cities around the world, a really out-of-the-box design is certainly in the realm of possiblity, were such a tower become necessary. Here's hoping we see it -- and sooner rather than later!

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I would love to see some of the Grace street developments kick off.  We got Pinecrest started which is amazing but there are 3 other developments planned further east that could be transformational for that whole corridor. The 2 YMCA properties, which are proposed at 7 and 11 stories would be great for added density to the area and do a lot to fill in the open teeth along Grace between the capital and VCU. There is also the conceptual 15 story tower in the works for the block east of the YMCA development that would be a very nice addition to the skyline. Would love more info on all these projects as this seems to be the start of the long awaited Monroe Ward building boom.

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1 minute ago, blopp1234 said:

I would love to see some of the Grace street developments kick off.  We got Pinecrest started which is amazing but there are 3 other developments planned further east that could be transformational for that whole corridor. The 2 YMCA properties, which are proposed at 7 and 11 stories would be great for added density to the area and do a lot to fill in the open teeth along Grace between the capital and VCU. There is also the conceptual 15 story tower in the works for the block east of the YMCA development that would be a very nice addition to the skyline. Would love more info on all these projects as this seems to be the start of the long awaited Monroe Ward building boom.

From your keyboard to God's eyes, my friend! :tw_thumbsup:

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16 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

I'd LOVE to see a LEGO tower in RVA (be it downtown or in the Diamond District) designed to look like it was made from LEGO blocks

Can you imagine something so unique to not only RVA but America altogether.... shoot, the WORLD! They could make it their LEGO tourist attraction and use the first 5 floors for it. Even a LEGO museum. Then "house" their HQ employees on the above 20-40 stories. 

 

Sure hope they don't just settle on some "tech center" in  Chesterfield and play it safe.

 

adaptable-tower-main.jpg

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQT6QYswHL5A9j4LZ4yEDB

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQAtef5YjzVXuSkyapk7rB

 

Homer Drool GIF

Edited by ancientcarpenter
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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, ancientcarpenter said:

Can you imagine something so unique to not only RVA but America altogether.... shoot, the WORLD! They could make it their LEGO tourist attraction and use the first 5 floors for it. Even a LEGO museum. Then "house" their HQ employees on the above 20-40 stories. 

 

Sure hope they don't just settle on some "tech center" in  Chesterfield and play it safe.

 

adaptable-tower-main.jpg

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQT6QYswHL5A9j4LZ4yEDB

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQAtef5YjzVXuSkyapk7rB

 

Homer Drool GIF

YES!! TOTALLY can see it! Talk about putting RVA on the map with an iconic skyscraper! I can imagine how colorfully it would be illuminated at night as well. Holy moly - that would be FAN-TASTIC!! Again, from your keyboard to God's eyes, my friend!  :tw_thumbsup:

Re: playing it safe with a suburban tech center: bite your tongue! Let's not even put that notion into the universe. We want LEGO to set up their HQ in RVA, preferably downtown, in an iconic LEGO tower.

Honestly, city and state officials should start working on the folks at LEGO even in the near term to start considering moving their HQ to RVA - and - the powers that be should PUSH HARD for the idea of constructing such an iconic LEGO tower downtown. As you said, this would put RVA on the WORLD map -- making her famous for something really cool and iconic that could draw people from around the globe to come visit, particularly if the tower also included a super-sized LEGO museum.

We are grass roots - this idea needs to be elevated to the level of people who could actually take it an run with it. Let's find a way to get this concept in front of the right people.

Edited by I miss RVA
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54 minutes ago, ancientcarpenter said:

 

I was just at CoStar in their "barn innovation" room and saw this. Coincidence? Could this be a sign that Lego is building their American HQ in RVA?  Anything is possible...

 

 

/s

legocostarconspiracy.jpg

HOLY WOWWWWWWWWW!!  We can only hope this is a sign from Above.

From your keyboard to God's eyes, my friend!! :tw_thumbsup:

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  • 2 weeks later...

So we're all of two weeks into the second half of 2022 and is it just me or does it REALLY feel like RVA is off to a VERY hot start to the back half of this year?

Just in these last few weeks, we learned that:

1.) Tower cranes are up at both Parc View in Monroe Ward and the Commodore in Manchester

2.) Bakery Lofts has broken ground and is officially underway

3.) A FOURTH high-density apartment project was announced for Westwood.

4.) Announcement of the international customs processing facility moving forward at RIC - meaning we might be only a year away from REGULAR international flights!

5.) Paperwork for the Admiral in Jackson Ward -- which had gotten hung up in the city's permit office -- has been refiled and apparently that project is being jumpstarted and is back underway again

6.) Plans for the GORGEOUS amphitheater for just behind Tredegar on the Riverfront were announced -- THIS my friends will be a real game changer for downtown from a "stuff to do" standpoint.

7.) Paperwork has been filed for a NEW large-scale apartment project in Manchester (Commerce Road/Perry/W. 7th Street)

8.) Paperwork has been filed for a NEW potentially medium-scale apartment project on W. Broad Street on the edge of Westwood

And none of this includes stuff that happened over the last month or month and a half - like LEGO announcing they're building their mega manufacturing plant here... or that the Soda Flats broke ground and construction is underway or that Novel is underway north of the Acca Bridge or that we have renderings for two other large apartment buildings on Arthur Ashe Boulevard or that site work (starting with dismantling the huge billboard over the restaurant - Buz and something... for the Outlier is underway. And it doesn't include CoStar on the doorstep of breaking ground for their big HQ tower at Foundry Park downtown...

JESUS - given the timing... if all of these projects that are announced/filed, etc., end up getting underway more or less in the same timeframes - come 2023, can you imagine just HOW many cranes we might see up alllllllllllllllllll around the city? Consider how at one point last year, we had five cranes downtown (GA Building, Children's Hospital, VCU Health outpatient hospital), two in "midtown" (STEM building and the Opus (Ascent) on Broad, and two tower plus a moble crane in Scott's - and I think at least one in Manchester - all more or less in the same general timeframe. I'll be curious if we can top that by early 2023 or at least by this time next year.

Today alone - with three drops of potentially impactful projects on the horizon hitting the forum (amphitheater, 4204 W. Broad apartment building, Manchester apartment building (W. 7th Street) - it feels like Christmas (or in my case, Hanukkah) in July, does it not? And something tells me we are FAR from done yet. I got this same feeling during the flurry of activity last year - that the momentum is building. And after what seemed like an interminable lull toward the latter half of Q2 - it feels like the rocket engines have re-ignited and RVA is starting to crank up the pipeline again.

Wow - as down in the doldrums as I had been feeling throughout the second quarter, I'm starting to feel the energy rising and my level of excitement is going up with it! My brother -- who moved up here two years before I did -- on the one hand laughs at me because he keeps up with some of our friends in RVA whereas I keep up with RVA itself (he doesn't) - yet I keep him up to date on all the new developments and every once in a while he'll pause and admit that what's happening in the River City really is remarkable. And it really IS remarkable. Man - it feels like the slump flipped around and RVA is back rolling again. Gotta keep it going!

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Another big announcement could be what they plan to do with the silos in Manchester.  I've been waiting patiently for some kind of news to be released, but nothing official yet.  Hoping to hear something soon...well, only if it's good news.  ;)  It certainly feels like things are ramping up a little bit.  Oh, and what about what will happen to the city block next to the Dominion Energy HQ...thought there might be a plan announced for it sometime soon.  Unless there is a big surprise, I see the next development on that lot a temporary one.

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15 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

So we're all of two weeks into the second half of 2022 and is it just me or does it REALLY feel like RVA is off to a VERY hot start to the back half of this year?

This would have taken me a very long time to type, heck, it took me a long time to erase some of it when quoting! Nice to see this comprehensive overview that’s part inventory, part summary, part enthusiasm and part ouija board.

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Hey don’t forget the apartments being planned in the financial district for possible costar employees when they move people down here for the new tower. I know one of the have heard is the old dominion building and then that parking deck we have heard that we heard could have an apartment tower built on top of it. Plus the the new state office building to replace the Monroe tower. I know we saw something a while back to on the va Supreme Court building being replaced. I can’t recall where all of these will be located downtown I was thinking the new apartments would be somewhere on Main Street and then the new state building I thought was where the old state unemployment commission building is.

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Hike said:

This would have taken me a very long time to type, heck, it took me a long time to erase some of it when quoting! Nice to see this comprehensive overview that’s part inventory, part summary, part enthusiasm and part ouija board.

Part ouija board :tw_joy:

Hey - we've had clear nights the last couple of nights up this way and full/almost full moons - I've been laying out all my crystals, dowsing pendulums, and tarot cards in the south-facing window sills to be bathed in beautiful, bright moonlight - gotta do everything humanly possible to pump up the positive energy flow for RVA! :tw_wink: Gotta pull out all the stops! (Shhhh... just don't tell my rabbi about all the ouija board stuff!)

Edited by I miss RVA
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