Hurricane Season 2005

[Brickell]

TD 1 is official now and looks to be headed towards the Mid Gulf Coast region as a tropical storm. More information here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

WTNT31 KNHC 082059

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL

STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND

THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL

DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE

84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN

AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 510 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT ORGANIZES...BUT IS

EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS THE

POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD

ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM

EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

[wolfdawg54]

It is scary that it may develop this early into the season. The Pacific already had one this year, even before the beginning of the season.

[Brickell]

It's a tropical storm now and headed towards the Pensacola/Mobile area. Tropical storm warnings up for Cuban and the Dry Tortugas in the Keys.

Winds are currently at 40mph and this is not expected to reach hurricane strength.

[waccamatt]

Tracking hurricanes is a hobby of mine. This is quite an early start to what is expected to be a very busy season.

[ironchapman]

Do you think we will see a level 5 storm?

[Brickell]

Depends on what you mean by we...

It's possible that we'll see a category 5 storm develop at some point this season but odds are that it wont' make landfall that strong. Ivan was a Cat5 at one point last year. If I'm not mistaken Andrew (1992) was the last cat5 storm to make landfall as such in the US and even then only upgraded after the fact.

[ironchapman]

I don't think Andrew was a Cat5 one when it hit land. It just was powerful enough of a storm to cause the amount of damage it did.

[Brickell]

As I said in the post, Andrew was uprgraded after the fact, just a couple years ago as I recollect. New estimation techniques show that winds were 165mph as Andrew was making landfall.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/h...57.story?page=1

[waccamatt]

Do you think we will see a level 5 storm?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd say there is a 50/50 chance that a hurricane will reach category 5 intensity in the Atlantic this season. The chances are pretty remote that a hurricane would hit land at that level, though. Only 3 cat 5's have crossed the U.S. coast in the last 100 years:

The Labor Day Hurricane (a/k/a the Florida Keys Hurricane) in 1935

Hurricane Camille in 1969

Hurricane Andrew (crowned a cat 5 10 years after the fact) in 1992

It would be awesome if we could keep this thread going for this entire hurricane season. Hurricanes and snow are my 2 favorite weather events!