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Fayetteville, Arkansas


Mith242

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I forgot to mention, it looks like the city might start adopting some other measures that the Dover-Kohl Group suggested a while back ago. I guess I'm a little surprised it's taken the city this long to address it. It's passed the Planning Commission. But anyway it basically mentions not having buildings set back off the street. Buildings will need to be 50 ft from the public right of way. Public parking will be put in back out of public view from the street level. Developers will also be required to have 'architectural features' on buildings facing streets, no more blank walls.

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Question for everyone: Does anyone know anything about the Bel Claire development off McGuire road? (Hwy 112) I drove by it for the first time today, and it appears to be yet another failed project... the streets are all laid, the street lights are up, there are electrical connections set at every lot, and it's completely deserted and grown up. Barber real estate signs all over it, I just wondered if anyone knew more about what happened with that, since it might be long enough ago I wasn't on this forum yet.

That development has been exactly like that for at least a year I'd say.

As far as I know, the plat passed the planning commission. I guess the demand didn't keep up with the plan, though.

Its a little out of town, if you ask me, and there are other undeveloped subdivisions in much more desireable areas.

Apparently their lots aren't selling there.

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Yeah I can understand people's feelings on it. But I will say I've seen some older versions that look a lot worse. There's a green 'pipecleaner' in Albuquerque which is even worse looking. Especially since there's not really any big trees there. I'm curious does anyone else have any other possibly suggestions. Would people rather see it as a typical looking tower? I suppose they could have made it a cross so we could have an even more controversial subject on our hands. :lol:

How about a 150ft building?

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How about a 150ft building?

Would there be a problem with putting a cell tower like that in a building though? That and then of course then you'd have problems because a 'building' would be too tall for most of Fayetteville and all the neighbors would complain and such. :lol:

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Would there be a problem with putting a cell tower like that in a building though? That and then of course then you'd have problems because a 'building' would be too tall for most of Fayetteville and all the neighbors would complain and such. :lol:

Haha, good point. Maybe they don't need to be having cell phones. It's nice to see us finally get better coverage and different providers in the area in the last year or two.

You would think the hills in this area would be useful to putting like just 20 foot towers on or something, right? How about using a real pinetree?

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Sorry for the negativity, but I'm getting bad news coming from all parts of the country about the recession and how its getting worse. Sometimes reality can be a bit depressing, but we carry on.

Alright, Al Gore, this sounds a little alarmist! I'm just kidding. What kind of stuff have you heard? I realize here in NWA things are good and won't make me think about the issues confronting Louisiana still after hurricane Katrina. Now the fires in California are burning and may displace a lot of people also. Assuming things get worse there and like 100,000 homes are lost, then eventually I might be ignorant to their reality in a few years if they don't recover easily. I do realize the housing market is slumping and the creditors are in a lot of trouble. However, I'm not an economist so I can't draw any conclusions. What have you heard beyond that to point towards recession and depression?

Feel free to take this into another thread because I don't think Mith will want this here if it might get involving.

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That development has been exactly like that for at least a year I'd say.

As far as I know, the plat passed the planning commission. I guess the demand didn't keep up with the plan, though.

Its a little out of town, if you ask me, and there are other undeveloped subdivisions in much more desireable areas.

Apparently their lots aren't selling there.

It is a little out of town, but it's close to that golf course with the cool Marlon Blackwell club house, and a couple really nice golf-style subdivisions. And being out of town didn't stop Goshen from building a plethora of McMansions and somehow selling them.

As far as people being depressed regarding a recession... the surest way to create a recession is to say there is going to be one. My opinion is that people got used to explosive growth in many areas, and now that demand is dropping below supply, people are panicing. The people going into panic mode should have known better.

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Question for everyone: Does anyone know anything about the Bel Claire development off McGuire road? (Hwy 112) I drove by it for the first time today, and it appears to be yet another failed project... the streets are all laid, the street lights are up, there are electrical connections set at every lot, and it's completely deserted and grown up. Barber real estate signs all over it, I just wondered if anyone knew more about what happened with that, since it might be long enough ago I wasn't on this forum yet.

As you probably all know, there's lots of housing inventory in NW Arkansas right now, especially on the medium high to high end (i.e. about $250K and up). The Center for Business and Economic Research at the U of A estimates that there is approximately a 5-year supply of new homes on the market in NW Arkansas, based on recent absorption rates. What this means is that it would take about 5 years to sell all of the homes currently on the market based on the rate of recent sales. Thus builders have cut back significantly in starting new homes until they sell what they already have built. Building permits are way down, especially in Benton County but also somewhat in Washington County.

Bel Claire is typical of many subdivisions that were developed during the recent boom of the past several years. Developing a subdivision from the initial stages to having it ready for building usually takes a couple of years. Barber probably started this during the peak of the craziness, but now that it's ready, the market is not. Lots in the susbdivision are between $64K and $69K, with a minimum of 2400 square feet for any home built there. Since this would put new homes there among the price ranges where there is currently a glut of homes on the market, most builders would hesitate at this point.

In a conversation with the listing agent, I was told that this subdivision is on the "back burner" for now. If Fayetteville decides to build a new high school (the potential building site for a new HS is near by), this will probably become a "hot" subdivision and lots of new homes will probably appear. However, whether to remodel the old HS or build a new one is still under discussion by the school board, so for now not much activity will probably occur there.

Real estate is cyclical. Despite all of the doom and gloom in the media, now is actually a very good time to purchase a home in NW Arkansas. Home prices in Washington County are down, compared to past years, and interest rates are still low. With a high inventory of homes on the market there is a lot to choose from, and despite the so-called "mortgage meltdown" people with good credit can still easily get approved for mortgages.

BTW, I like the fake pine tree in E. Fayetteville. Nicely disguised communications tower for the new fire station there. It could have been worse. I commend those responsible for at least trying to make it less offensive than most cell phone towers.

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Real estate is cyclical. Despite all of the doom and gloom in the media, now is actually a very good time to purchase a home in NW Arkansas. Home prices in Washington County are down, compared to past years, and interest rates are still low. With a high inventory of homes on the market there is a lot to choose from, and despite the so-called "mortgage meltdown" people with good credit can still easily get approved for mortgages.

BTW, I like the fake pine tree in E. Fayetteville. Nicely disguised communications tower for the new fire station there. It could have been worse. I commend those responsible for at least trying to make it less offensive than most cell phone towers.

You said it, real estate is cyclical even here in NWA. People who have been in real estate for much longer than myself say that they have been through this multiple times over the last few decades. They also say that it usually lasts for 1-3 years and that there is a good chance that it will start picking up starting as soon as spring or summer of next year. It is pretty much just wait and see for now.

Well, I guess I am the only one that is not too sure of the big fake tree. I find it more comical than anything.

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You said it, real estate is cyclical even here in NWA. People who have been in real estate for much longer than myself say that they have been through this multiple times over the last few decades. They also say that it usually lasts for 1-3 years and that there is a good chance that it will start picking up starting as soon as spring or summer of next year. It is pretty much just wait and see for now.

Well, I guess I am the only one that is not too sure of the big fake tree. I find it more comical than anything.

Yeah I agree real estate is very cyclical, but theoretically anything could happen beyond the 20-30 years experience or even 100 years experience. I especially would expect realtors to tell me it will be ok soon.

I think in general I've heard we are at a 20 year low in home sales. Of course I don't know if that study extends beyond 20 years or not. Home prices have more than doubled in the past years. My theories are: 1) inflation occurred in housing while retail sector inflation was minimized by retail price wars. 2) homes were undervalued before 3) Americans spent more money on houses willingly to buy their own exclusivity and construction and sales took advantage of that 4) white flight resulted in much new house construction (related to #3) 5) Housing sector became an increasingly greedy one.

Now the fact that home prices, our most expensive purchase, have increased so rapidly has put our country in an awkward spot. Overall you could say in economic bs terms that demand exceeded supply, but certainly some factors were included in that. No doubt building outward from cities on cheaper land was easier than building upward or doing infill or restoration. It just seems a cyclical thing with capitalism that speculation is rampant and we have dot-com busts and over-building and price gouging. We should expect to see increased government oversight on these things if they prioritize increasing the value of an American dollar.

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While we're discussing economics here, I thought I'd pose this:

While pricing is largely driven by demand, it is also driven by COGS. In this case, construction and land costs.

I keep hearing a lot about China's development driving up costs of building materials. I wonder if that will prevent pricing from being as responsive to decreased demand as in the past.

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Another huge development might be going out in west Fayetteville. The development is called Forest Hills and is located on the southside of Wedington at Salem Road (across from Arvest Bank). Right now it could contain over 560 residences and nearly 1.25 million of non residentail space. This would be on approx 76 acres.

Also, another Walgreens coming. This one is in east Fayetteville at Mission and Crossover. That makes 3 open and 2 more on the way. That's alot of drug stores!

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Another huge development might be going out in west Fayetteville. The development is called Forest Hills and is located on the southside of Wedington at Salem Road (across from Arvest Bank). Right now it could contain over 560 residences and nearly 1.25 million of non residentail space. This would be on approx 76 acres.

Also, another Walgreens coming. This one is in east Fayetteville at Mission and Crossover. That makes 3 open and 2 more on the way. That's alot of drug stores!

Wow, anybody got a link to info on Forest Hills?

Also, Walgreens is the 7-11 of the new millenium.

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Well, I guess I am the only one that is not too sure of the big fake tree. I find it more comical than anything.

I don't mean this in a confrontational manner, but I was curious how you would prefer it to be done. :D I'm just curious to see if anyone has any other ideas. I can see how the fake pine tree can bother some people. But I guess to me the other options I know of, don't particularly appeal to me either.

You said it, real estate is cyclical even here in NWA. People who have been in real estate for much longer than myself say that they have been through this multiple times over the last few decades. They also say that it usually lasts for 1-3 years and that there is a good chance that it will start picking up starting as soon as spring or summer of next year. It is pretty much just wait and see for now.

I guess it's just weird for people like me. Granted I'm not really into real estate so maybe I've just never noticed the patterns. Just seems like things have been pretty good ever since I moved up here in '89. I don't really ever recall any slumps or anything like it is now. I guess I can see how to some people it does look worse than what it really is, basically just an adjustment.

While we're discussing economics here, I thought I'd pose this:

While pricing is largely driven by demand, it is also driven by COGS. In this case, construction and land costs.

I keep hearing a lot about China's development driving up costs of building materials. I wonder if that will prevent pricing from being as responsive to decreased demand as in the past.

Interesting point, at first we were heaing how Katrina was driving up the cost of building materials, now China. But it makes sense. China is a huge country and at the rate it's growing I could see it really using a driving up the cost of materials.

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Another huge development might be going out in west Fayetteville. The development is called Forest Hills and is located on the southside of Wedington at Salem Road (across from Arvest Bank). Right now it could contain over 560 residences and nearly 1.25 million of non residentail space. This would be on approx 76 acres.

Also, another Walgreens coming. This one is in east Fayetteville at Mission and Crossover. That makes 3 open and 2 more on the way. That's alot of drug stores!

I'm curious to see what west Fayetteville is going to look in say 5 years.

Yeah, but I admit in other places I've seen Walgreens all over the place like that. Sometimes in some areas of Albuquerque you'd swear they were just a couple of blocks from each other.

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Another huge development might be going out in west Fayetteville. The development is called Forest Hills and is located on the southside of Wedington at Salem Road (across from Arvest Bank). Right now it could contain over 560 residences and nearly 1.25 million of non residentail space. This would be on approx 76 acres.

Also, another Walgreens coming. This one is in east Fayetteville at Mission and Crossover. That makes 3 open and 2 more on the way. That's alot of drug stores!

I wondered what they were going to do with that old driving range.... It will be interesting to see what the layout will look like. Sounds a lot like the density may be comparable to the Woodstock development that was proposed a little further out...

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Alright, Al Gore, this sounds a little alarmist! I'm just kidding. What kind of stuff have you heard? I realize here in NWA things are good and won't make me think about the issues confronting Louisiana still after hurricane Katrina. Now the fires in California are burning and may displace a lot of people also. Assuming things get worse there and like 100,000 homes are lost, then eventually I might be ignorant to their reality in a few years if they don't recover easily. I do realize the housing market is slumping and the creditors are in a lot of trouble. However, I'm not an economist so I can't draw any conclusions. What have you heard beyond that to point towards recession and depression?

Feel free to take this into another thread because I don't think Mith will want this here if it might get involving.

I thought I'd mention the recession because economics was mentioned, but since this isn't an economic forum anyone can just do a simple google search for "recession" and "2007" and find all you need to know about it.

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I wondered what they were going to do with that old driving range.... It will be interesting to see what the layout will look like. Sounds a lot like the density may be comparable to the Woodstock development that was proposed a little further out...

I knew there were some plans to do something with it but I had not heard anything in quite a while. Then I noticed this development starting going through the city planning process. I am very interested in seeing what they are going to do with 1.25 million sq ft of non-resi space. I am guessing some commercial and some office space but who knows.

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While we're discussing economics here, I thought I'd pose this:

While pricing is largely driven by demand, it is also driven by COGS. In this case, construction and land costs.

I keep hearing a lot about China's development driving up costs of building materials. I wonder if that will prevent pricing from being as responsive to decreased demand as in the past.

Good point. That was in my mind at some point also to mention as a factor, but then I was distracted by myself.

Forrest Hills? Next to Betty Jo Corner? Another large development plan? Is this for Fayetteville the city or the simcity video game?

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You said it, real estate is cyclical even here in NWA. People who have been in real estate for much longer than myself say that they have been through this multiple times over the last few decades. They also say that it usually lasts for 1-3 years and that there is a good chance that it will start picking up starting as soon as spring or summer of next year. It is pretty much just wait and see for now.

I don't have my crystal ball handy, but I agree. Prices and sales in Washington County dived big time in the last quarter of 2006--14%. In Fayetteville, they went up about 6% in the first half of 2007. Since the winter is the normally slow time of year, I'm hoping that next spring will bring more consumer confidence and thus increasing sales. Too many buyers are still in the "wait and see" mode or are trying to make extremely low-ball, unrealistic offers. There are good buys to be had, and (contrary to popular belief) the market here is not dead.

I sort of see the market now like that of about 4 years ago, before all of the craziness. Real estate agents and sellers got really spoiled in the past few years. Now there's lots of inventory, and people are still buying homes. It's just that agents have to work harder for their money. The market now is saner, but just seems slow compared to the past few years. The greedy ones, looking for a quick buck are out of the market and I'm glad.

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I think in general I've heard we are at a 20 year low in home sales. Of course I don't know if that study extends beyond 20 years or not. Home prices have more than doubled in the past years. My theories are: 1) inflation occurred in housing while retail sector inflation was minimized by retail price wars. 2) homes were undervalued before 3) Americans spent more money on houses willingly to buy their own exclusivity and construction and sales took advantage of that 4) white flight resulted in much new house construction (related to #3) 5) Housing sector became an increasingly greedy one.

I'm not sure about your first 3 theories, and I don't think white flight applies to NW Arkansas, but I do agree with the "greed factor." NW Arkansas appeared on the national radar when it was rated #1 in the nation in the Millkin Report a few years ago ahead of Las Vegas. Before that time local investors had already begun to look at real estate due to the dive in the stock market several years ago. A lot of them lost a lot of money and were looking to diversity their portfolios. Once NW Arkansas came on the national radar, investors from other parts of the country also entered the equation. There was lots of money available for developing new subdivisions and building homes, etc. Because of the strong economy in NW Arkansas, a lot of people were moving here as well, so those homes sold. Some people (local as well as from elsewhere) made a lot of money.

But the golden goose laid too many eggs (i.e. too many homes were built), and a lot of investors looking for a quick buck did get burned. I have had a number of them contact me about selling the properties they purchased because: a) they can't get them rented, b) they invested in spec homes which are not now selling.

Their problem is that the university rental market is a very fickle one and with the two new dorms there is an oversupply of university rentals now. For the spec homes, the high and medium high price ranges are vastly overbuilt in both Washington and Benton Counties. The Walmart vendors are no longer moving to the area in droves, so the homes built to attract that market segment are just sitting there. According to the Skyline Report (prepared by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the U of A for Arvest) there is about a 5 year supply of homes in NW Arkansas. And that's if no new homes are built or new subdivisions developed. A number of builders are having serious problems (e.g. Betty's Homes in Bella Vista which declared bankruptcy).

On the positive side, in recent quarters permits pulled for new construction have decreased significantly and the absorption rate has declined only slightly. What this means is that with time prices will begin to go up again as the supply decreases. In the meantime, I would still suggest that this is an extremely good time to purchase a home or investment property--lots to choose from and (if you're looking at a long term investment) low prices. Interest rates are also still very low, and if you have good credit, mortgages are still possible.

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I'm not sure about your first 3 theories, and I don't think white flight applies to NW Arkansas, but I do agree with the "greed factor." NW Arkansas appeared on the national radar when it was rated #1 in the nation in the Millkin Report a few years ago ahead of Las Vegas. Before that time local investors had already begun to look at real estate due to the dive in the stock market several years ago. A lot of them lost a lot of money and were looking to diversity their portfolios. Once NW Arkansas came on the national radar, investors from other parts of the country also entered the equation. There was lots of money available for developing new subdivisions and building homes, etc. Because of the strong economy in NW Arkansas, a lot of people were moving here as well, so those homes sold. Some people (local as well as from elsewhere) made a lot of money.

But the golden goose laid too many eggs (i.e. too many homes were built), and a lot of investors looking for a quick buck did get burned. I have had a number of them contact me about selling the properties they purchased because: a) they can't get them rented, b) they invested in spec homes which are not now selling.

Their problem is that the university rental market is a very fickle one and with the two new dorms there is an oversupply of university rentals now. For the spec homes, the high and medium high price ranges are vastly overbuilt in both Washington and Benton Counties. The Walmart vendors are no longer moving to the area in droves, so the homes built to attract that market segment are just sitting there. According to the Skyline Report (prepared by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the U of A for Arvest) there is about a 5 year supply of homes in NW Arkansas. And that's if no new homes are built or new subdivisions developed. A number of builders are having serious problems (e.g. Betty's Homes in Bella Vista which declared bankruptcy).

On the positive side, in recent quarters permits pulled for new construction have decreased significantly and the absorption rate has declined only slightly. What this means is that with time prices will begin to go up again as the supply decreases. In the meantime, I would still suggest that this is an extremely good time to purchase a home or investment property--lots to choose from and (if you're looking at a long term investment) low prices. Interest rates are also still very low, and if you have good credit, mortgages are still possible.

I agree that we finally got noticed on a national level and seems to be when things changed. I remember for a while it seemed like the local investors/developers couldn't keep up with demand and people had to wait a while before they could get a home. Now what I'm wondering is with their being an overabundance of homes in the area now. What's going to happen with these big developments going in over in the western section of Fayetteville? I've gotten the impression that Benton County is worse off on the overabundance of homes. But will these big planned neighborhoods going to succeed? Or are they going to have to really spread things out and have it take a number of years before they even get close to being filled out? I know they weren't going to be built overnight anyway. But I've wondered if some developers are having second thoughts if it's going to take a while just to get started initially with there being enough homes out there already.

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I'm not sure about your first 3 theories, and I don't think white flight applies to NW Arkansas, but I do agree with the "greed factor." NW Arkansas appeared on the national radar when it was rated #1 in the nation in the Millkin Report a few years ago ahead of Las Vegas. Before that time local investors had already begun to look at real estate due to the dive in the stock market several years ago. A lot of them lost a lot of money and were looking to diversity their portfolios. Once NW Arkansas came on the national radar, investors from other parts of the country also entered the equation. There was lots of money available for developing new subdivisions and building homes, etc. Because of the strong economy in NW Arkansas, a lot of people were moving here as well, so those homes sold. Some people (local as well as from elsewhere) made a lot of money.

But the golden goose laid too many eggs (i.e. too many homes were built), and a lot of investors looking for a quick buck did get burned. I have had a number of them contact me about selling the properties they purchased because: a) they can't get them rented, b) they invested in spec homes which are not now selling.

Their problem is that the university rental market is a very fickle one and with the two new dorms there is an oversupply of university rentals now. For the spec homes, the high and medium high price ranges are vastly overbuilt in both Washington and Benton Counties. The Walmart vendors are no longer moving to the area in droves, so the homes built to attract that market segment are just sitting there. According to the Skyline Report (prepared by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the U of A for Arvest) there is about a 5 year supply of homes in NW Arkansas. And that's if no new homes are built or new subdivisions developed. A number of builders are having serious problems (e.g. Betty's Homes in Bella Vista which declared bankruptcy).

On the positive side, in recent quarters permits pulled for new construction have decreased significantly and the absorption rate has declined only slightly. What this means is that with time prices will begin to go up again as the supply decreases. In the meantime, I would still suggest that this is an extremely good time to purchase a home or investment property--lots to choose from and (if you're looking at a long term investment) low prices. Interest rates are also still very low, and if you have good credit, mortgages are still possible.

Thanks for joining the forum, by the way. It's too bad about the overbuilding. It's not like I want to blame the developers alone for it, but it just seemed obvious that it was happening at the time to me. I worry about it because the effects of it reaches beyond their finances and pocketbooks. Like you said before, it is part of the cyclical process of real estate. Most of my concern that manifested in the comments had to do with the incredibly rising real estate costs. I seem to get stuck on that subject.

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What's going to happen with these big developments going in over in the western section of Fayetteville? I've gotten the impression that Benton County is worse off on the overabundance of homes. But will these big planned neighborhoods going to succeed? Or are they going to have to really spread things out and have it take a number of years before they even get close to being filled out? I know they weren't going to be built overnight anyway. But I've wondered if some developers are having second thoughts if it's going to take a while just to get started initially with there being enough homes out there already.

On some of the developments, it will just be a matter of time for the market to catch up and for the homes to be absorbed (i.e. sold). On others, it may be more difficult. Sometimes there are miscalculations on the part of developers, either in terms of location or in terms of the size of the homes a given subdivision is supposed to have. For example, in west Fayetteville, there is a subdivision called Cross Keys. The homes there are very nice, but somewhat pricey compared to the other subdivisions around them. Cross Keys homes are a hard sell. In another case, Rupple Row, too many homes were built at once, and they are all the same plan. A similar development next to the Fayetteville Athletic club has 4 different plans and the developers are selling them a few at a time as they are built--a more sensible approach.

Some developers get it right. For example, several years ago in Fayetteville the Salem Meadows subdivision was built across the street from Holcomb school. The homes were modest (not exactly starter homes) and well built. That subdivision sold quickly. The same builder/developer did the same thing across from the new HS in Springdale (NW of Harber Meadows). Those homes sold quickly as well.

Sometimes it's a matter of price. West of Lowell, there are many subdivisions which are still basically a lot of empty lots. These were supposed to be $300K and up homes. Since they came into being at the top of the market (just before it started sliding down), a few homes were built and then with the high-end glut that existed even at the peak of the market, no additional homes were built. All one has to do is drive to XNA to see the results.

A new trend is to build a smaller, less expensive home. Some of these higher-end subdivisions are being sold and permission obtained from the appropriate planning commissions to change the covenants to build smaller homes. The new phases of Clabber Creek, near Holt Middle School, are a case in point. The new homes there are beautiful, all brick with granite counter tops, fully sodded yards, etc. And it's possible to get one for less than $150K. They are "selling like hotcakes."

The bottom line is that home-buyers know value when they see it.

Another factor is the fact that salaries have not increased significantly in NW Arkansas. Many of the jobs that are being created are service-sector jobs, not traditionally high paying. The result is that for awhile most of the homes being built were out of reach for most folks.

There is a positive trend in this regard. Many of the new building permits being pulled now are for smaller, less expensive homes. I would venture to guess that in the next few years there will be a glut of these too, as everyone jumps on the bandwagon.

The problem is that it takes several years for a new development to come into being--from planning, engineering, putting in streets and infrastructure, and finally building homes. No one has a crystal ball, so it's difficult to know at the outset what the situation will be once that subdivision becomes active and homes are finally being built.

The situation in Benton County is even worse than in Washington County. There are many subdivisions with many, many vacant lots and very few homes actually built. And other subdivisions with lots of completed but unoccupied homes. Some of these are well-located and will be sold in time. Others will be just out of luck for a long time. After all we have about 5 years of inventory to get rid of.

I could keep writing about other related issues, since the problem is a complicated one, but I'll just mention a few. For example, the glut of new homes with prices falling means that existing homes have an even tougher time getting sold and thus linger on the market. A second related problem is that many of the new homes are being rented out instead of sold, thus skewing the rental market as well.

It's a tough situation that isn't going to be solved soon.....

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