U.S. Population Shift Map

[GRDadof3]

I'm a sucker for maps and stats. I found this interesting map of the U.S. and population change from 2000 - 2003:

Just as I thought. Everyone is moving from Saginaw to here But seriously, we look to be doing a lot better than a lot of larger CSA's: Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinatti-Dayton, St. Louis, most of NY, the whole State of Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Philly, Milwaukee... High growth areas are the obvious Southwestern areas and Florida, but the metros that jump out in blue to me are Denver, Atlanta, and Virginia. Atlanta leads the country in residential building permits with almost 70,000 annually They are adding a city of GR onto their suburbs every year.

Edit: Wow, go Boise!

[coolbrezze]

Not surprise that Grand Rapids is green on this map, all the construction etc... going on in the area ( was surprisee to see nearly all of Florida not only growth, but blue). I wonder how that map will look now.

[GR_Urbanist]

No surprise to see GR as one of the few growth areas of Michigan, which stands out quite vividly to the leaky bucket in a certain other part of the state. But even more interesting is how Ottawa Co. is one of only two blue areas in the state. I've dreamed of living in Grand Haven for a while, which would be attractive place for anyone, but I'm not sure what the higher increase in population is from. Maybe proximity to the lake shore and easy access to GR?

btw, GRDad, have you seen the blog called Strange Maps? Hours of map related fun there.

http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/

[FilmMaker]

Don't get too excited about stats from 2000-2003. As we recently worked through an update of our township master plan, we decided to seek out even more up to date data than the census bureau could provide (we gathered data up to 2007-2008 versus the 2005 data elsewhere). The results were sobering. While the broader GR metro (as a whole) is doing better than most other areas of Michigan, we are clearly seeing a dramatic slowing of growth, especially in certain age demographics - in fact, in many ways we are not doing much better than holding our own when you acknowledge birth and death rates. One very noteworthy discovery: once kids reach college age, they are leaving in droves - the 20-30yr bracket shows a breathtaking drop. And age groups don't start increasing again until you get into the predictably growing approx 60yrs and up category.

If you want to view the data we dug up, you can find it embedded in the Master Plan on the Plainfield Township web site: plainfieldchartertwp.org.

[GRDadof3]

One interesting article I read the other day which might help West Michigan retain residents is that the number of people moving from state-to-state dropped to its lowest level in decades last year, and will probably be even lower this year. Much of it due to people unable to sell existing homes. However, if people are unemployed and have skills that are not in demand here, it's probably better for everyone if they move to another region and don't cause a drain on the system.

Young people are pretty mobile, and tend to move in "tribes" after finishing college here in Michigan. A couple of local organizations are aggressively looking at increasing internship programs, which greatly increases the chances of keeping young talent in the area.

It will be interesting what the upcoming census shows as far as population shifts go.

[OneSweetWorld]

Did the Houston area jump out at anyone other than me? Being the fourth largest city in America, a 6%+ growth rate is pretty huge. Besides its awesome location, Houston just doesn't seem all that desirable a place to live (to me anyway...). Thoughts?

[coolbrezze]

I'm very interested in seeing the new census data as well, mainly Michigan. A major city ( low crime etc...) off lake Michigan ( that resides in Micigan) I find very desirable ( and even northern), and that would be Grand Rapids. It's location is great, and sometimes I find myself saying if only Lansing was a little more west(or NW, but Lansing has a good location as well, right in the middle of the state). The tri-city area ( including Saginaw etc..) really seems to be taking a big hit, crime is just too high.

(FilmMaker is there anywhere I can find the data for the entire state?)

[dbrok]

Did the Houston area jump out at anyone other than me? Being the fourth largest city in America, a 6%+ growth rate is pretty huge. Besides its awesome location, Houston just doesn't seem all that desirable a place to live (to me anyway...). Thoughts?

[zenstyle]

Did the Houston area jump out at anyone other than me? Being the fourth largest city in America, a 6%+ growth rate is pretty huge. Besides its awesome location, Houston just doesn't seem all that desirable a place to live (to me anyway...). Thoughts?

[FilmMaker]

I'm very interested in seeing the new census data as well, mainly Michigan. A major city ( low crime etc...) off lake Michigan ( that resides in Micigan) I find very desirable ( and even northern), and that would be Grand Rapids. It's location is great, and sometimes I find myself saying if only Lansing was a little more west(or NW, but Lansing has a good location as well, right in the middle of the state). The tri-city area ( including Saginaw etc..) really seems to be taking a big hit, crime is just too high.

(FilmMaker is there anywhere I can find the data for the entire state?)

[Veloise]

Houston...my brother was another migrant there during the "black tagger" years.

They (sis-in-law & bro) live in a subdivision west of town. Seems like there are several concentric freeways and they are on what was an outer ring when they bought the house (oil bust foreclosure) 20 years ago. Now there are new roads out beyond them.

My impressions from visiting (almost annually): too big, too spread out. Mile upon mile of strip malls with plastic signs everywhere. No local pride (the anti-litter campaign don't mess with Texas is cool, but ignored). Texas has a weird wrinkle in the drunk driving-open container laws ("San Antonio is a 12-pack away") and Houston has liquor stores with sampling at the aisle endcaps!

From the textbooks: there's no zoning, so it's theoretically possible to implement a backyard abbatoir. (Fancy zoning-ese word for slaughterhouse.)

I do like the radio station offerings. "Mas musica, TODO EL DIA!"

Climate: h-u-m-i-d. Bro says it's the most air-conditioned city. New houses are built with immovable windows.

Despite their little enclave, there's a constant worry about crime, break-ins, petty thievery. Every discussion about the area, the neighborhood, the streets includes a mention about this topic. One year we went to Kerrville and the paranoia followed us.

I enjoy my visits, but I wouldn't live there.

[joeDowntown]

One thing to point out with the map is that the some of the biggest boom areas are also the ones getting hit hardest with the housing bust and economic downturn. One thing that I think helps Grand Rapids is that we really don't see major booms, nor major busts. There is an interesting article about Las Vegas in Time Magazine that is a classic example of a *SUPER* boom town that is having some major difficulties:

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/...1868933,00.html

I think Grand Rapids is holding its ground quite well (under extreme global circumstances).

Joe

[GRDadof3]

I think as Southeast Michigan continues to suffer with automotive job losses (even with the bailout, GM and Chrysler are talking about slashing a bunch), we're going to see more people from there checking out West Michigan. The buzz that Grand Rapids and West Michigan is doing better than Southeast Michigan has definitely taken hold. Which is fine I guess, as long as they bring job creation with them.

I was thinking the other day that State and local econ development agencies, in addition to trying to draw companies here, should help companies that are already here find new customers in other states and countries. The local companies are already here (so you don't have to spend years selling them on the area and giving them $Millions in tax credits), it would help them diversify their customer bases away from Michigan companies (which are in downsizing mode), and it would create new jobs here at the home base (in theory). I know the Chamber is sponsoring a trip to China that members can take advantage of, but that should be expanded upon (IMO).

Or maybe a tax credit system for products or goods sold outside of Michigan for Michigan businesses, as long as the corporate HQ is here in Michigan.

[crinzema]

Look at how fast Maryland in gaining population. My assumption of the D.C. area was that it was a Detroit situation.

Ever since I was knee-high to a grasshopper, I've always enjoyed looking at population maps and the sort. You could of made a safe bet that whenever I had free time in elementary school to read a book, I would have my nose in every atlas the school owned. Maybe that's why I'm not a good reader. Brings a smile to my face. Took a GIS class during high school too.

[fotoman311]

Look at how fast Maryland in gaining population. My assumption of the D.C. area was that it was a Detroit situation.

Ever since I was knee-high to a grasshopper, I've always enjoyed looking at population maps and the sort. You could of made a safe bet that whenever I had free time in elementary school to read a book, I would have my nose in every atlas the school owned. Maybe that's why I'm not a good reader. Brings a smile to my face. Took a GIS class during high school too.

[LA Dave]

Jobs.

Jobs.

Jobs.

When there are jobs, there are people. Houston is humid, ugly, flat and culturally a wasteland. But there are mucho jobs in a variety of fields and people move there to take advantage of that fact. During the 1940s, thousands of African-Americans and poor whites from Appalachia moved to the Detroit area to take advantage of jobs in the war plants (and then, with peace, the auto plants). It wasn't because they thought that Detroit was a pretty place to live or because the climate was particularly salubrious.

Until and unless the Great Lakes region figures out how to create jobs, and decent ones, the population drain will continue. By the way, California is facing this issue as well, as young people cannot find jobs that pay well enough for them to afford decent housing. That has caused a huge move of folks to places like Las Vegas and Phoenix. It will be interesting to see if the housing bust restrains that outflow.

[GRDadof3]

Jobs.

Jobs.

Jobs.

When there are jobs, there are people. Houston is humid, ugly, flat and culturally a wasteland. But there are mucho jobs in a variety of fields and people move there to take advantage of that fact. During the 1940s, thousands of African-Americans and poor whites from Appalachia moved to the Detroit area to take advantage of jobs in the war plants (and then, with peace, the auto plants). It wasn't because they thought that Detroit was a pretty place to live or because the climate was particularly salubrious.

Until and unless the Great Lakes region figures out how to create jobs, and decent ones, the population drain will continue. By the way, California is facing this issue as well, as young people cannot find jobs that pay well enough for them to afford decent housing. That has caused a huge move of folks to places like Las Vegas and Phoenix. It will be interesting to see if the housing bust restrains that outflow.

[d8alterego]

I think joeDowntown had it right: boom and bust cycles are not good for any city. Steady growth is what all cities should strive for because development can be properly planned for. A massive boom of construction, IMO, usually means that the conservation of open space and proper planning goes out the window, which then leads to the crappy development that Huston and Las Vegas has now. I, personally, don't want a subdivision or strip mall going in every 5 days. I guarantee you that if GR were to have been booming like Las Vegas for the past 8-10 years, we would have all been complaining about the crappy development choices over that amount of time. If the GR area adds a million people over 50 years, that would be the kind of steady growth we need rather than a million in 10 years.

[coolbrezze]

I think joeDowntown had it right: boom and bust cycles are not good for any city. Steady growth is what all cities should strive for because development can be properly planned for. A massive boom of construction, IMO, usually means that the conservation of open space and proper planning goes out the window, which then leads to the crappy development that Huston and Las Vegas has now. I, personally, don't want a subdivision or strip mall going in every 5 days. I guarantee you that if GR were to have been booming like Las Vegas for the past 8-10 years, we would have all been complaining about the crappy development choices over that amount of time. If the GR area adds a million people over 50 years, that would be the kind of steady growth we need rather than a million in 10 years.

[fotoman311]

Have to disagree, boom and bust cycles can be bad in some cases, but not all. A city can have a booming cycle with proper development as it would have in steady growth.

[crinzema]

While I don't necessarily disagree with you, can you give an example, please?

[joeDowntown]

Dubai is having problems too. I visit a lot of big financial centers and they are all having problems. From what I've read, London is poised to having a housing crisis much worse than most as London "home prices" have increased ten percent a year, the cost of living is extremely high and people borrowed against the equity in their house. Now the housing market is destabilizing, a lot of job loss has and is occuring (I walked past the Lehman Brothers building a few months ago. 35 stories and the only lights on were auditors sifting through paperwork).

Singapore is the same. A huge boom, but they are caught in our crisis. They are in the midst of building Marina City, a *massive* casino, resort, convention, residential and office complex. The problem is, now Las Vegas Sands (the developer of the project) is on the brink, China has tightened gambling laws (so not as many tourists) and the Singapore gov't may have to step in and finish this massive development.

Plus, being in the currency markets for my job I now realize how much currencies have altered everything. Take for example Australia. Their currency was .96 cents / US dollar 5 months ago. It's now around .70 cents / US dollar (and got as low as .65). This is affecting everyone (including closed societies like China).

As far as jobs, I think Grand Rapids either got lucky or we're very smart and we've already set the infrastructure in place to shift our economy from standard manufacturing to a service, healthcare and complex manufacturing based economy. I think Grand Rapids has the right formula. We just need to persavere and keep our chins up.

Joe

Would Dubai be an example? Although I haven't heard any news about Dubai's economic condition since this global recession with crude oil prices at around $40 i believe.

[LA Dave]

Would Dubai be an example? Although I haven't heard any news about Dubai's economic condition since this global recession with crude oil prices at around $40 i believe.

[GRDadof3]

Once again, Kent and Ottawa Counties squeaked out a little bit of population growth, while the rest of Michigan continued to hemorrhage people.

http://blog.mlive.com/grpress/news_impact/...SUS-MAP-pdf.pdf

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/ind...k_trend_in.html

[MJLO]

I know it's neither here nor there, I know that Metropolitan areas are decided by commuting patterns on a county by county basis. But I don't quite understand the logic behind separating GR and Holland into two separate Metro areas. GR's Urban population extends into Ottawa, and the rest of Ottawas population is 15mins from there. Or Do you think it might make sense to Combine Holland and Muskegon into one? Because From Holland to North of Muskegon it's continuous development, almost like one decent sized lakeshore city. I guess it's just one of those things. It only half makes sense that Rural Ionia county, is considered part of Metro GR. Commuting patterns and such. But that means a person who lives on the east side of Portland, 15 mins from Lansing, 40 from GR, is considered part of metro GR. It's like that all over the country I assume, In AZ someone who lives 20 mins from Tucson, and 90 minutes from Phoenix is still counted as Metro Phoenix. I guess the truth of a city lies in the Urbanized pop.