Arkansas' Top Growth Counties

[johnnydr87]

Arkansas' overall population is growing, but half of it's counties are losing population. All in the delta!

County 2000 pop/ 2003 pop /Change/ State rank

Benton 153,406 172,003 12.1% 1

Washington 157,715 169,683 7.6% 2

Lonoke 52,828 56,718 7.4% 3

Faulkner 86,014 92,060 7.0% 4

Saline 83,529 87,554 4.8% 5

Crawford 53,247 55,647 4.5% 6

White 67,165 69,981 4.2% 7

Carroll 25,357 26,359 4.0% 8

Miller 40,443 41,892 3.6% 9

Johnson 22,781 23,592 3.6% 10

Garland 88,068 91,188 3.5% 11

Craighead 82,148 84,626 3.0% 12

Grant 16,464 16,933 2.8% 13

Cleburne 24,046 24,723 2.8% 14

Greene 37,331 38,353 2.7% 15

Perry 10,209 10,461 2.5% 16

Boone 33,948 34,740 2.3% 17

Sharp 17,119 17,461 2.0% 18

Sebastian 115,071 117,252 1.9% 19

Baxter 38,386 39,113 1.9% 20

Cleveland 8,571 8,709 1.6% 21

Yell 21,139 21,459 1.5% 22

Logan 22,486 22,808 1.4% 23

Pope 54,469 55,185 1.3% 24

Franklin 17,771 18,003 1.3% 25

Stone 11,499 11,632 1.2% 26

Howard 14,300 14,461 1.1% 27

Hot Spring 30,353 30,674 1.1% 28

Van Buren 16,192 16,348 1.0% 29

Marion 16,140 16,283 0.9% 30

Pulaski 361,474 364,567 0.9% 31

Madison 14,243 14,354 0.8% 32

Conway 20,336 20,485 0.7% 33

Sevier 15,757 15,858 0.6% 34

Crittenden 50,866 51,155 0.6% 35

Independence 34,233 34,426 0.6% 36

Clark 23,546 23,581 0.1% 37

Polk 20,229 20,224 0.0% 38

Fulton 11,642 11,632 -0.1% 39

Randolph 18,195 18,171 -0.1% 40

Scott 10,996 10,963 -0.3% 41

Izard 13,249 13,202 -0.4% 42

Lincoln 14,492 14,403 -0.6% 43

Hempstead 23,587 23,429 -0.7% 44

Newton 8,608 8,542 -0.8% 45

Poinsett 25,614 25,415 -0.8% 46

Lawrence 17,774 17,553 -1.2% 47

Montgomery 9,245 9,120 -1.4% 48

Drew 18,723 18,468 -1.4% 49

Bradley 12,600 12,414 -1.5% 50

Pike 11,303 11,123 -1.6% 51

Jefferson 84,278 82,889 -1.6% 52

Cross 19,526 19,203 -1.7% 53

Union 45,629 44,829 -1.8% 54

Little River 13,628 13,358 -2.0% 55

Prairie 9,539 9,344 -2.0% 56

Calhoun 5,744 5,626 -2.1% 57

Columbia 25,603 25,034 -2.2% 58

Ashley 24,209 23,583 -2.6% 59

Saint Francis 29,329 28,517 -2.8% 60

Arkansas 20,749 20,158 -2.8% 61

Lafayette 8,559 8,310 -2.9% 62

Nevada 9,955 9,640 -3.2% 63

Searcy 8,261 7,973 -3.5% 64

Ouachita 28,790 27,697 -3.8% 65

Clay 17,609 16,912 -4.0% 66

Chicot 14,117 13,485 -4.5% 67

Desha 15,341 14,623 -4.7% 68

Jackson 18,418 17,443 -5.3% 69

Dallas 9,210 8,708 -5.5% 70

Mississippi 51,979 49,041 -5.7% 71

Woodruff 8,741 8,244 -5.7% 72

Lee 12,580 11,857 -5.7% 73

Monroe 10,254 9,633 -6.1% 74

Phillips 26,445 24,621 -6.9% 75

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, ePodunk

Benton county is now bigger than Washington county.

[johnnydr87]

Arkansas had 7 cities in the fastest declining cities (out of 100). 1 in fastest growing cities.

http://www.city-data.com/toplists.html

[Mith242]

Great info. Yeah Benton County recently passed up Washington County. Benton County is relatively flat, but Washington County has the rugged Boston Mtns to the south. The hills and mountains start picking up in Fayetteville. That and Benton County is really helped having Wal-mart's headquarters there. Fayetteville will always have it's place in northwest Arkansas, but I can see Benton County more the 'center' of northwest Arkansas. Much of the population and development is now happening up there.

[Mith242]

This topic seemed like a good place to put up some population estimates for some Arkansas cities. But what I've got out of the papaer just focuses on northwest Arkansas. Maybe someone else can post some other figures for the other parts of the state if they have them.

-----------------------2000------------2004(estimate)-- increase

Bentonville----------19,730----------27,765-------------8,035 (40.73%)

Springdale----------45,798----------55,971------------10,173 (22.22%)

Siloam Springs-----10,843----------13,246-------------2,403 (22.16%)

Rogers--------------38,829----------44,885-------------6,056 (15.60%)

Fayetteville--------58,047----------64,190-------------6,143 (10.58%)

Lowell----------------5,013-----------6,674-------------1,661 (33.13%)

Centerton-----------2,143-----------3,738-------------1,592 (74.19%)

These are all the areas that gre by more than 1,000 in the last four years. I believe I also saw estimates for Little Rock putting it around 184,000. Seemed like Ft Smith was around 82,000. One local station had an estimate on Springdale at around 62,000. I'm not sure where they got that figure, all the others were pretty close. Maybe someone has some figures for some of the other cities in Arkansas.

[johnnydr87]

Any reason why siloam springs is growing so fast?

The other cities are pretty much in the thick of the NWA metro.....but Siloam springs seems fairly far out.

Bentonville will soon pass hot springs as the tenth largest city in the state.

[Mith242]

Any reason why siloam springs is growing so fast?

The other cities are pretty much in the thick of the NWA metro.....but Siloam springs seems fairly far out.

Bentonville will soon pass hot springs as the tenth  largest city in the state.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it's just catching some of the growth the the main metro area is getting. To be honest I think southwest Missouri is also growing quite a bit. I think northwest Arkansas is helping fuel the whole region's growth. If Ft Smith was quite so isolated because of the Boston Mtns I think it might even help it. Of course I guess you could say that Ft Smith is growing, just at a slower rate than northwest Arkansas. Some of that could possibly be from northwest Arkansas also.

[johnnydr87]

I'm sure you saw this from the Arkansas Blog:

1. Little Rock 184,081 (+361)

2. Fort Smith 81,849 (+126)

3. Fayetteville 64,190 (+1,824)

4. North Little Rock 59,474 (-307)

5. Jonesboro 58,799 (+1,262)

6. Springdale 55,971 (+3,660)

7. Pine Bluff, 53,419 (-321)

8. Conway 50,358 (+1,650)

9. Rogers, 44,885 (+2,287)

10. Hot Springs 37,245 (+365)

I think it's so interesting that 4/10 of the biggest cities are in NW arkansas.

5 from central if you count Hot Springs and Pine Bluff (a stretch maybe).

Then there's lil ole jonesboro in the northeast.

[Mith242]

Hot Springs might want to watch out. The way things are going up here Bentonville might start fighting for that 10th spot. Although some of the growth rates are slowing down up here. Well I should say for some cities the growth rate is slowing down. Now there seems to be a lot of huge growth for some of the smaller towns up here. But that might eventually stop. I don't think some of the smaller towns up here can keep up as well as some of the larger cities.

[Mith242]

I'm wondering how long it will be before Pine Bluff falls out of the top ten. Springdale has already passed it and it probably won't be too long before Conway does too. At the way Rogers is growing it might not be that long before it overtakes it too. Not sure if Hot Springs will grow fast enough to overtake it anytime soon. I also think it's odd that after holding the number three spot for a long time now North Little Rock looks to soon be in the bottom half of the top ten. Looks like Jonesboro and Springdale will over take it really soon. I wonder if Fayetteville will eventually overtake Ft Smith. It still has a way to go and you never know when the growth might slow down. The growth might eventually slow down because I'm not sure if this area can keep up with this constant growth. So does anyone have any predictions when will Arkansas have a second city above 100,000? When and who will it be?

[johnnydr87]

Probably Springdale. Then it's a tossup between Jonesboro, Fayetteville, Conway, and Rogers.

[Mith242]

Well I'm finally back. Looks like Rogers will probably take the rout everyone else in northwest Arkansas is taking. Bentonville, Springdale and Fayetteville have already decided to take a special census. So all the estimates will soon be official numbers. Not sure when everyone is having their special census. The Arkansas Regional Development Board has listed Fayetteville's estimated population a little over 70,000.

[johnnydr87]

From Arkansas Blog:

Central Arkansas growth

Some of our readers share our interest in demographic noodling. This is for them.

Metroplan distributed this week a newsletter on population trends. It estimates growth of the four-county LR-NLR Metropolitan Statistical Area of 39,000 people, or about 6.5 percent, from 2000 through 2005. That exceeds the national average of 4.9 percent.

Individual numbers aren't so rosy. NLR shows a population decline. LR shows an increase of 3,657 people, to 186,790, only a 2.0 percent increase.

What's driving the above-average population growth? Double-digit percentage growth in Faulkner, Lonoke and Saline County. Pulaski is up overall only 2.3 percent.

The top five cities, with 2005 population and the percentage growth that figure represents from 2000 population:

Maumelle 14,309 35.5 percent

Bryant 12,852 31.6 percent

Cabot 19,967 30.8 percent

Vilonia 2,656 26.1 percent

Shannon Hills 2,499 24.6 percent

[Mith242]

Siloam Springs and Farmington have added their names to the list of considering a special census. Not sure when they will officially decide on the matter. It's literally becoming a point where it's easier to list the cities not having a special census to the ones that are or are seriously looking into having one. I guess this may not be great news for the rest of the state, because it will end up meaning they will get more money back from the state. Which will end up coming out from the rest of the state. Fayetteville's will end up costing a little under $1 Mil. But they expect almost $3 Mil more added a year if the census results hold up. Even if the census doesn't come up with the figures Fayetteville wants (around 70,000), you's still think there will be enough to make it worth while. I think it's interesting how many smaller towns like Farmington are also lining up. I can't keep up with all of the smaller towns that also are looking having a special census.

[Mith242]

So any guesses as to what Arkansas will be like, population-wise, say in 2020? You almost wonder if much of the state's population will be more focused in central and northwest Arkansas. Will east and south Arkansas continue to lose? It's weird to think that the delta region, once the main 'center' of the state could end up being the least populated area of the state. Unless the trend is stopped, but even if you stop all the people leaving will it ever be able to regain any of it's former population?

[johnnydr87]

2020, I say NW Arkansas will surpass Central, or be within 100,000.

Obviously, the population will be concentrated in Central and NW, sort of like it is now.

I think Jonesboro will be a good sized city, with maybe aroun 80-120,000 people.

Pine Bluff maybe around 45,000.

Hot Springs will probably be around 45,000, and it's metro may be around 120,000.

One more note: NW Arkansas and Central Ark. metros will have over 1 million each. '

State population will be around 3.2-3.8 million.

The Delta *might* grow with I-69 and it's collateral investments. But I doubt it. I think it will still lose.

What about you?

[Mith242]

2020, I say NW Arkansas will surpass Central, or be within 100,000. 

Obviously, the population will be concentrated in Central and NW, sort of like it is now.

I think Jonesboro will be a good sized city, with maybe aroun 80-120,000 people.

Pine Bluff maybe around 45,000.

Hot Springs will probably be around 45,000, and it's metro may be around 120,000.

One more note: NW Arkansas and Central Ark. metros will have over 1 million each.  '

State population will be around 3.2-3.8 million.

The Delta *might* grow with I-69 and it's collateral investments.  But I doubt it.  I think it will still lose.

What about you?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not so sure the metro up here will pass up the Little Rock metro. It still quite a bit bigger than ours. What I have mainly heard about is Benton County passing up Pulaski County by 2020. Which makes sense, Pulaski really isn't growing much. All the growth now is mainly in all the counties neighboring it. The metro up here might really be booming but, the metro in central Arkansas is growing quite nicely too. Most figures I see about the metro up here usually have it around 350,000 to 375,000. Now I'm not sure if that is based off of 2000 census figures or estimates based on current estimates. I'm not sure they can keep building infrastructure quickly enough to keep the current rate of growth going. I'm sure this area will grow but maybe not as quickly as it has. But I have the feeling eventually something will have to give because I just don't see us getting enough funds to really be able to sustain this type of growth. But it's hard to judge everything, in the 60's Pine Bluff was going through a growth spurt and they were predicting the city getting close to 100,000 around by 1990-2000. Of course we know what ended up happening there. It's hard to say that something similar could happen to another area in Arkansas. Maybe not quite so extreme, but you never know when an area might suddenly cool off and go through a slump. Back in the 80's I seem to remember even Hot Springs having some problems. Maybe not population-wise but I heard they were talking about the possibility of taking away the Natl Park if that area of town didn't start cleaning up it's act. As much as I'd like to see Jonesboro keep growing, I have to be a little hesitant because of the way the rest of Eastern Arkansas seems to be going. Will Jonesboro continue being one of the few bright spots of eastern Arkansas or will the problems east Arkansas is having eventually spread to Jonesboro? But there seems to be an urban trend growing which would seem to help central and northwest Arkansas more than the rest of the state. If northwest and central Arkansas also can keep job growth up, people from the rest of the state might eventually end up in either one just because it's where the jobs are.

[johnnydr87]

I see what you mean.

But NW Arkansas has mammoth titan corporations to prop it up. As long as there's a business with the same GDP as the country of Switzerland headquartered up there, I think it will do just dandy for the coming years. If central, northeast, northwest, and hot springs-- to an extent--- keep up their growth and planning, Arkansas will be surely headed out of it's backward status to a secure, progressive position... I don't think I would give up hope yet; I think Arkansas can still continue it progress in those corners of the state with proper planning.... The Arkansas Supreme Court's decision on inadequate schooling was a blessing, for example...and definitely heading us in the right direction out of our perennial education drought. My question is, why did it take Arkansas so long to get the ball moving?

Anyways, metro populations:

Little Rock: Population (2003 CB est.): 600,899

Population (2000 Census): 583,845

Fayetteville: Population (2003 CB est.): 341,686

Population (2000 Census): 311,123

As you can see, Little Rock's MSA only grew by 17,000 over three years, while Fayetteville's grew by 30,000. A roughly 10% rate vs. 3.3%. Huge difference.

Also, Fayetteville's MSA has two counties...while Little Rock's has around 5.

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=735&c=9

[Mith242]

I see what you mean.   

But NW Arkansas has mammoth titan corporations to prop it up.  As long as there's a business with the same GDP as the country of Switzerland headquartered up there, I think it will do just dandy for the coming years.  If central, northeast, northwest, and hot springs-- to an extent--- keep up their growth and planning, Arkansas will be surely headed out of it's backward status to a secure, progressive position...  I don't think I would give up hope yet; I think Arkansas can still continue it progress in those corners of the state with proper planning.... The Arkansas Supreme Court's decision on inadequate schooling was a blessing, for example...and definitely heading us in the right direction out of our perennial education drought.  My question is, why did it take Arkansas so long to get the ball moving?

Anyways, metro populations: 

Little Rock: Population (2003 CB est.): 600,899

Population (2000 Census): 583,845

Fayetteville: Population (2003 CB est.): 341,686

Population (2000 Census): 311,123

As you can see, Little Rock's MSA only grew by 17,000 over three years, while Fayetteville's grew by 30,000.  A roughly 10% rate vs. 3.3%.  Huge difference. 

Also, Fayetteville's MSA has two counties...while Little Rock's has around 5.

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=735&c=9

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah but Little Rock still has such a big lead. I don't know if it's official or not but they've been adding two counties to the northwest Arkansas metro in some of the studies I've seen. I heard we mainly lost our number 1 slot in the Milken Institute was not that we had gotten worse but because they added those two counties onto the metro. One of them is McDonald County in southwest Missouri. It's been getting a some growth, a lot of it derived from Arkansas. But it's still not very big or has a whole lot going for it. They also added Madison County, which is just east of Washington County. It's also rather sparsely populated and it's also tends to be listed as one of the poorer counties in the state. Something a little similar to Newton County. They may add a little population but don't add much in the way of stats or anything. I'm just wondering if they will eventually add Carroll County, which is where Eureka Springs is located.

[johnnydr87]

Hmm..... i think in an MSA, satellite counties have to have a lot of people travelling to the core city (In NW Ark's case, either Bentonville, Rogers, Springdale, or Fayetteville)...

I wonder when it will start to take in part of Oklahoma. Kind of interesting.

[johnnydr87]

That's odd that they would include Madison county....its population is 15,000 and has grown by less than a percent over 2000-2003

[Mith242]

That's odd that they would include Madison county....its population is 15,000 and has grown by less than a percent over 2000-2003

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It might have something to do with the fact that much of the county's population either work or come frequently to Fayetteville. Aside from Huntsville there aren't many towns that make up very much. I think Carroll and Crawford County(to the south) don't seem as 'connected' to the rest of the metro. But I think there will be more of a link to Carroll County in the future.

[johnnydr87]

Density (persons per square mile):

LITTLE ROCK MSA

Pulaski:

468.9

Saline:

115.5

Faulkner:

132.9

Perry:

18.5 (lol)

Lonoke:

59

NW ARK MSA

Washington:

166.1

Benton:

181.3

Madison:

17.0

FORT SMITH

Sebastian:

214.6

Crawford:

89.4

HOT SPRINGS MSA

Garland:

130

JONESBORO MSA

Craighead:

115.6

Greene:

64.7

PINE BLUFF

Jefferson:

95.2

[johnnydr87]

And just one more note:

Garland county has 91,000 people, and grew by 3.5 percent from 2000-2003.

Craighead has 84,000, and grew by 3.0 percent.

So, Hot Spring's is slowly but surely taking over Jonesboro's MSA. If they add hot Springs county....we just might over take them...

[Mith242]

Density (persons per square mile):

LITTLE ROCK MSA

Pulaski:

468.9

Saline:

115.5

Faulkner:

132.9

Perry:

18.5  (lol)

Lonoke:

59

NW ARK MSA

Washington:

166.1

Benton:

181.3

Madison:

17.0

FORT SMITH

Sebastian:

214.6

Crawford:

89.4

HOT SPRINGS MSA

Garland:

130

JONESBORO MSA

Craighead:

115.6

Greene:

64.7

PINE BLUFF

Jefferson:

95.2

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

One aspect that keeps Washington County down in this area is the sparsely populated Boston Mtn area in the southern area of the county. One of the biggest reasons why Benton County recently passed Washington County up in population is because Benton County is a lot more flat and is more easily developed. Although I guess Wal-mart's headquarters probably helped too.

[johnnydr87]

That would be really cool if they developed on those mountains, sort of San Francisco style :-p. I guess it is too far away from the main city, but it would be quite awsome. West Little Rock has a lot of developments on the side of hills and mountains...that's what makes it so charming. All the hills and Arkansas river.