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Tallahassee MSA

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SkyDave Whistle-Stop

SkyDave

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All these alphabets got me going in circles :wacko:

Therefore, I must ask my provocative question of the day....

If an MSA is determined by population of commuters 25% or more, How does Atlanta get away with a 15 county metro????

I have a theory but would love to hear your ideas first.

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BHCav Hamlet

BHCav

Posted
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All these alphabets got me going in circles :wacko:

Therefore, I must ask my provocative question of the day....

If an MSA is determined by population of commuters 25% or more, How does Atlanta get away with a 15 county metro????

I have a theory but would love to hear your ideas first.

After visting Sprawltopia, I mean Atlanta, I'm surprised it's only 15 counties.

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SkyDave Whistle-Stop

SkyDave

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TJ, you are almost correct. Actually it is 28 counties.

According to the US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract 2006 the following counties are considered part of the Atlanta MSA

Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Haralson, Heard, Henry, Jasper, Lamar, Meriwether, Newton, Paulding, Pickens, Pike, Rockdale, Spalding and Walton Counties.

The BIG question is how does Atlanta get away with this????? Many of these counties are border counties with rural characteristics. (not commuters to and from Atlanta) It is more of a trade area, rather than a true sprawled urban area of 28 counties.

According to my convoluted way of thinking, couldn't we use the same argument Atlanta may have used in order to increase our MSA to the our trade area's size????

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poonther Town

poonther

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TJ, you are almost correct. Actually it is 28 counties.

According to the US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract 2006 the following counties are considered part of the Atlanta MSA

Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Haralson, Heard, Henry, Jasper, Lamar, Meriwether, Newton, Paulding, Pickens, Pike, Rockdale, Spalding and Walton Counties.

The BIG question is how does Atlanta get away with this????? Many of these counties are border counties with rural characteristics. (not commuters to and from Atlanta) It is more of a trade area, rather than a true sprawled urban area of 28 counties.

According to my convoluted way of thinking, couldn't we use the same argument Atlanta may have used in order to increase our MSA to the our trade area's size????

NO I guarantee you that these counties in ATL's metro fit the true definition by the census bureau. I bet their market area is even bigger. Remember these commuters do NOT have to travel into ATL proper, but just into one of the MSA counties like in this case Cobb, Dekalb, Clayton (the airport) Gwinnett etc etc. I know many people that travel into one of the ATL MSA counties from places as far away as Macon, Columbus and even Auburn, AL. ATL's sprawl unfortunately is only second to LA's so I can see why their MSA is so large. Also don't forget that GA counties are about the size of dime.

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poonther Town

poonther

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Yeah I was going to say that also, GA probably has more counties than any other state on the east coast.

Georgia is second in the number of counties per state in the USA w/159 while first place goes to Texas w/254. In comparison, FL and AL have 67 each. Also by comparison: NY has 62 and CA has 58.

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Glenn Hamlet

Glenn

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Yeah I was going to say that also, GA probably has more counties than any other state on the east coast.

A history lesson I remember from high school. The reason Georgia has so many counties is because way back when they were created the idea was that the citizens would have no more than a day long trip, by horse, to get to their respective county courthouse to conduct business & get back home before nightfall. Sounds good for way back then during the horse & buggy days but I think they could easily consolidate some counties now.

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jpl02 Hamlet

jpl02

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A history lesson I remember from high school. The reason Georgia has so many counties is because way back when they were created the idea was that the citizens would have no more than a day long trip, by horse, to get to their respective county courthouse to conduct business & get back home before nightfall. Sounds good for way back then during the horse & buggy days but I think they could easily consolidate some counties now.

Actually, some of the counties were consolidated with others during the Great Depression because they went broke. Milton and Campbell counties went bankrupt and were merged with Fulton County, which is why that today's Fulton County has such a funky looking shape.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Florida Megalopolis

Florida

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Tallahassee Democrat is reporting a decline in Population for City and County

This comes as a major shock if true. It would seem to me that we've added to our number since 2000 and not the other way around. There are absolutely no signs of decline in this community, at least not obvious to myself.

Just looking at the number of new homes in the area and the vacancy rates, this doesn't add up. Add to this the City of Tallahassee Utility Department's increase in demand.

I'm not the sharpest marble in the bunch, but this surely has to be a mistake.

Article

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poonther Town

poonther

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I never knew marbles were sharp TJ. :)

First thing about this is it's the census bureau estimates. Remember you said so yourself that the BEBR is better than the census at estimating numbers. So I tend to believe them more when they say we've had an increase. They say that very thing in the article.

Second, you remember what happened w/the census bureau estimates for Leon when they did an actual count in 2000. They found out they had been way under-estimating Leon's pop. and I guess that trend does continue.

However the most glaring thing I read about this "teaser" from the Democrat is I have to ask where in the heck they are getting these numbers??? Even from the census bureau's OWN website they show Leon having a 7.1.05 population estimate of 245,756 not 233,649 that the Democrat is reporting. Look here if you have Excel. This is an increase over the 2000 population and this estimate is for the SAME DATE that the Democrat is reporting the estimate to be for....7.1.05.

Same w/the city figures, the census bureau's OWN website states that the city increased to 158,500 in 7.1.05 and not 141,148 which the Democrat is reporting they estimated FOR THE SAME DATE. Look here again if you have Excel

So something doesn't smell right that the Democrat is reporting figures for the same date and from the same source that are different than what their (the census bureau) is showing. So to me that means something somewhere is wrong.

They are also reporting that minority pops. in the county are falling. Look around, you really think that's true especially in the Latino sector?

P. S. I just looked at this Fact Sheet the U.S. Census Bureau just put out and they are also showing a decline in population for Alachua County which I don't think is true either.

Take this info. w/a chunk (not a grain) of salt and just wait until 2012 to get a true picture or better yet just look at BEBR estimates every year.

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south park county Whistle-Stop

south park county

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For some reason, I cannot edit posts but I actually read the article and it appears I jumped to a conclusion. Apparently this was JUST a survey and it was said that the sample was even smaller than that of 2000. Do not be alarmed and do NOT jump to conclusions. This survey basially has no credibility whatsoever and it was foolish of them to include this, BUT they're just reporting.

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poonther Town

poonther

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Thanks for the kudos guys. The Democrat did get the report from the US Census bureau, the American Community Survey of 2005. I'm just confused why the census bureau would report two different estimates in two different places for the same year. I realize that the new one, The American Community Survey does not report dorm pops, prison pops and other communal living facilities, but that can't be our entire difference here.

I'm very curious has to how they did this survey and what their methodology was. We know it was a small number of people they based this on. Their methodology for this entire survey would really tell the tale if I could find it. For instance they say they interviewed/survey several folks in April '05 that live on Tally's west side in the student areas, well of course it would look like we are losing folks b/c many move out of town after school that may be counted as permanent residents. Understand what I'm trying to say?

It makes me suspect b/c it shows that Alachua is also losing population and I doubt that is true either. That shows me their methodology has trouble w/college towns etc. Anyway, carry on and just pay attention to the BEBR numbers: they gave Tally a city pop. in 2005 of 174,781 and Leon a pop. that same year of 271,111 which is about 30k more for the city pop. and 40k more than the county pop. that this Survey shows.

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SkyDave Whistle-Stop

SkyDave

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I don't understand the methodology of the survey either. Furthermore, I don't understand why THE DEMOCRAT chose to report a survey that they had issues with, rather than the official chart on the web site that shows consistent growth for the same period.

I wonder, is this politics or just some other motive at work here?????

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Florida Megalopolis

Florida

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Looking at the fact that the survey excludes communal living facilities, dorms, prisons, etc I ask myself how accurate that could be at estimating populations with modern housing situations. How many apartments around here are built 4/4 and 3/3 and so on. Plus, average house size number may be on the rise as well. Consider they (the Survey group) probably has us down for 2.7 persons per home when our average may be 3.4. (Just throwing those numbers out there).

Further, the article must have been altered since my original post. It did not include the conflicting report, but only the news that our population was on decline.

It will be interesting to see tomorrows report. Surely I don't feel the decline around here.

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  • 1 year later...
Florida Megalopolis

Florida

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Tallahassee MSA 2007 Official Estimate

Tallahassee(1).jpg

Leon.......... 272,896{sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}}14.0%+ Since 2000

Gadsden .... 49,398 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 9.6%+

Wakulla ...... 29,417{sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 28.7%+

Jefferson.... 14,494 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 12.3%+

========================

Total .......... 366,205 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 16.15%+ MSA

Our MSA continues to experience positive, steady growth. The annual average is 2.3% which should equate to a 23.07% increase by 2010. Projecting forward for the next 5 years the Tallahassee MSA should follow this pattern.

2008 ------ 374,628

2009 ------ 383,244

2010 ------ 392,058

2011 ------ 401,076

2012 ------ 410,301

It was a pleasure! :D

Source: BEBR (Bureau of Economic and Business Research)

BEBR is Florida's representative to the Federal-State Cooperative Programs for Population Estimates and Projections, and works closely with the U.S. Census Bureau to improve the quality of demographic data in Florida. Over the years, staff members have served on the Federal-State Cooperative Programs for Population Estimates and Projections, the U.S. Census Bureau Advisory Committee, the National Research Council's Panel to Evaluate Alternative Census Methodologies, the Board of Directors of the Southern Demographic Association, and the Population Association of America's Committee on Applied Demography.

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