Georgia Population Figures

[socaguy]

Even if Columbus added Lee County it wouldnt surpass Augustas MSA. It would put the Columbus MSA at around 415,000 compared with Augustas 525,000. Columbus would still need to add another 110,000 people to even catch up.

Aiken County will never form its own MSA....that seems a little silly. While the city of Aiken may be more independant, North Augusta, which is close to the same size as Aiken (a few thousand short) is very dependant on Augusta. Im sure that more than half of the 150,000 plus people who live in Aiken County live within 5-7 miles of Richmond County Georgia.

[gah]

Even if Columbus added Lee County it wouldnt surpass Augustas MSA. It would put the Columbus MSA at around 415,000 compared with Augustas 525,000. Columbus would still need to add another 110,000 people to even catch up.

Aiken County will never form its own MSA....that seems a little silly. While the city of Aiken may be more independant, North Augusta, which is close to the same size as Aiken (a few thousand short) is very dependant on Augusta. Im sure that more than half of the 150,000 plus people who live in Aiken County live within 5-7 miles of Richmond County Georgia.

No more "silly" than WR separating from the Macon MSA. Less probable perhaps, which is debatable. But certainly not any more silly. Also depending on demographics, I would think it might be possible that Aiken might someday become part of the Columbia MSA. If the northern part of the county develops as a bedroom community for an expanding Columbia MSA, then that would happen. All it would take is the right number of folks commutting from Aiken COUNTY into one of the core counties of the Columbia SMA. The populations of the cities of N. Augusta and Aiken (as well as their proximity to Richmond County) are irrelevant to whether Aiken County remains in the Augusta SMA. The determinative factor is commuting patterns for the entire COUNTY

I think you completely missed the point. IF Columbus added 125,000 to its MSA, then the population would indeed be 415,00. That is a total wash -- because Columbus and Lee County ALREADY form a CMSA. Only the designation would change -- from CMSA to SMA.

If Augusta lost 150,000 from its MSA, then the population would be 375,000. However, if, as I presume, Aiken and Augusta would then become a CMSA, the population would be 525,000. Again a total wash with the designation from MSA to CMSA being the only change.

In that event, the Columbus SMA would be larger by 50,000, but the Augusta=Aiken CMSA would be larger by 110,000. Exactly the population statiistics that now are in place -- except that Columbus would be a SMA (rather than a CSMA) and Augusta/Aiken would be a CMSA (rather than a SMA) . Then, as I said, the debate would rage over which is the "better" gauge -- MSA or CMSA. No one is suggesting that the population of GREATER Columbus (whether defined by SMA or CMSA) is or soon will be larger than that of GREATER Augusta (whether defined by SMA or CMSA). That difference is 110,000. It may (or may not) shrink post-BRAC and post-KIA but it is not likely to disappear anytime soon.

[ATLman1]

Even if Columbus added Lee County it wouldnt surpass Augustas MSA. It would put the Columbus MSA at around 415,000 compared with Augustas 525,000. Columbus would still need to add another 110,000 people to even catch up.

Aiken County will never form its own MSA....that seems a little silly. While the city of Aiken may be more independant, North Augusta, which is close to the same size as Aiken (a few thousand short) is very dependant on Augusta. Im sure that more than half of the 150,000 plus people who live in Aiken County live within 5-7 miles of Richmond County Georgia.

Actually, once BRAC is in place Columbus' MSA would be over 450,000. Also, with the amount of growth Lee County and Harris County is seeing, I wouldn't be surprised if that figure didn't jump well over 460,000 by 2010.

[Topher1]

No more "silly" than WR separating from the Macon MSA. Less probable perhaps, which is debatable. But certainly not any more silly. Also depending on demographics, I would think it might be possible that Aiken might someday become part of the Columbia MSA. If the northern part of the county develops as a bedroom communuty for an expanding Columbia MSA, then that would happen. All it would take is the right number of folks commutting from Aiken COUNTY into one of the core counties of the Columbia SMA. The populations of the cities of N. Augusta and Aiken (as well as their proximity to Richmond County) are irrelevant to whether Aiken County remains in the Augusta SMA. The determinative factor is commuting patterns for the entire COUNTY

The difference between WR and Aiken is connectedness. The ENTIRE portion of Aiken county that is urbanized is connected to Augusta in its UA. North Augusta straddles Augusta, and a solid string of urbanized mill towns connect Aiken and North Augusta. It would be absurd to think that a county whose primary population base is included in the Urban Area (UA) of a city would not be included in it's metropolitan area. That said, Aiken Co. is a clear (though somewhat codominant) part of Augusta's MSA, and that's likely not changing. The city of Aiken is really just a bookend, with the stuff between the cities commuting either way (though primarily to Augusta or SRS). The city of Aiken really doesn't have a huge job base.

As for the Columbia MSA/CSA question, that could certainly be a future possibility. Currently Northeast Aiken Co is one of the most sparsely populated areas in the state, comparable to much of the rest of the Savannah River counties. Even still, according to census 2000, about 2500 Aiken Co. commuters already make the trek into Lexington and Richland Co. That's small compared to the 12000 heading into Augusta, but it's still a relevant population. However Lexington Co. would really have to start getting crowded before a significant number of Columbia commuters start to find the podunk hyphenated areas of Aiken Co (Wagener-Salley, Ridge Spring-Monetta, Batesburg-Leesville in Lex Co) attractive.

[gah]

Thanx for info -- as you point out (unlike WR/Macon) it is more probable than not that Aiken County will remain an element of the Augusta SMA -- at least for the immediate future.

[gah]

Actually, once BRAC is in place Columbus' MSA would be over 450,000. Also, with the amount of growth Lee County and Harris County is seeing, I wouldn't be surprised if that figure didn't jump well over 460,000 by 2010.

I think you mean the Columbus/A-O CSA. The Columbus SMA does not include Lee County -- yet.

[PJA]

No more "silly" than WR separating from the Macon MSA. Less probable perhaps, which is debatable. But certainly not any more silly. Also depending on demographics, I would think it might be possible that Aiken might someday become part of the Columbia MSA. If the northern part of the county develops as a bedroom community for an expanding Columbia MSA, then that would happen. All it would take is the right number of folks commutting from Aiken COUNTY into one of the core counties of the Columbia SMA. The populations of the cities of N. Augusta and Aiken (as well as their proximity to Richmond County) are irrelevant to whether Aiken County remains in the Augusta SMA. The determinative factor is commuting patterns for the entire COUNTY

I think you completely missed the point. IF Columbus added 125,000 to its MSA, then the population would indeed be 415,00. That is a total wash -- because Columbus and Lee County ALREADY form a CMSA. Only the designation would change -- from CMSA to SMA.

If Augusta lost 150,000 from its MSA, then the population would be 375,000. However, if, as I presume, Aiken and Augusta would then become a CMSA, the population would be 525,000. Again a total wash with the designation from MSA to CMSA being the only change.

In that event, the Columbus SMA would be larger by 50,000, but the Augusta=Aiken CMSA would be larger by 110,000. Exactly the population statiistics that now are in place -- except that Columbus would be a SMA (rather than a CSMA) and Augusta/Aiken would be a CMSA (rather than a SMA) . Then, as I said, the debate would rage over which is the "better" gauge -- MSA or CMSA. No one is suggesting that the population of GREATER Columbus (whether defined by SMA or CMSA) is or soon will be larger than that of GREATER Augusta (whether defined by SMA or CMSA). That difference is 110,000. It may (or may not) shrink post-BRAC and post-KIA but it is not likely to disappear anytime soon.

You're dealing in hypotheticals..the fact is North Augusta and Aiken and the areas surrounding those cities are the fastest growing areas by far in the county so even the north portion starts to grow its' very unlikely that the southern portion is going to sit idle.

[gah]

You're dealing in hypotheticals..the fact is North Augusta and Aiken and the areas surrounding those cities are the fastest growing areas by far in the county so even the north portion starts to grow its' very unlikely that the southern portion is going to sit idle.

[/quote

Yes -- by definition "if" and "in that event" mean hypothetically speaking

[PJA]

Yeah which proves my point. I like to deal in facts and whats realistic. I can say if Augusta doess such and such and adds however many counties to its MSA it could become bigger than Atlanta especially if Gwinett county or Cobb county leaves the MSA. But hey we can dream

I just think that anyone who's been to Aiken County knows that there'as about a .000001% chance of it leaving the Augusta MSA. If you think that Columbus can pass Augusta's MSA then you have to have more realistic proof of that happening. Some of your points were valid but some..mainly the Aiken thing were not. That's all I'm saying.

[gah]

Yeah which proves my point. I like to deal in facts and whats realistic. I can say if Augusta doess such and such and adds however many counties to its MSA it could become bigger than Atlanta especially if Gwinett county or Cobb county leaves the MSA. But hey we can dream

I just think that anyone who's been to Aiken County knows that there'as about a .000001% chance of it leaving the Augusta MSA. If you think that Columbus can pass Augusta's MSA then you have to have more realistic proof of that happening. Some of your points were valid but some..mainly the Aiken thing were not. That's all I'm saying.

facts are facts . What is realistic is a matter of subjective opinion.

you put it at .000001 % based on what "anyone who's been to Aiken County knows" I say the percentage is greater -- maybe much greater that it could happen "if" certain events take place. The changes of "it" happening may be remote. But what if the KIA plant had landed in N. Aiken County or Lexington County? Suddenly folks are staying north of the river to live and work and commuting trends change and the center of gravity shifts. Trust me, stranger things have happened. That's all I am saying.

No need to be touchy about whether Columbus can "pass Augusta's MSA" My point is that MSA or CSA are just words. Augusta's population is larger. But otherwise I think Columbus has already passed Augusta's MSA -- in quality of life. Based on what "anyone who's been to Columbus knows." But then that is not a

fact" but just my opinion! :-)

[Pillsbury]

How has Columbus passed it in quality of life?

[gah]

How has Columbus passed it in quality of life?

In my opinion, how has it not? -- No need to explain that in detail, but the usual subjective things which lead me personally to prefer to live in Columbus rather than Augusta (or any other place that I might choose to live in Georgia).

My point being that "what everybody knows" -- whether Aiken will remain a part of tthe Augusta SMA or whether Columbus has a better quality of life -- is actually a matter of personal opinion/perspective and not a "fact." It is a fact that Augusta population is larger. It is not a fact that it will always remain so and it is not impossible to conceive of realistic hypotheticals in which ithat could change. Likewise, it is not a fact that Columbus has a better quality of life. However, it is my opinion that that is so and it is impossible (or nearly so) to concieve of any realistic hypotheicals which could change my opinion. I presume that anyone who voluntarily lives in Augusta, rather than Columbus, fells the opposite.

[PJA]

In my opinion, how has it not? -- No need to explain that in detail, but the usual subjective things which lead me personally to prefer to live in Columbus rather than Augusta (or any other place that I might choose to live in Georgia).

My point being that "what everybody knows" -- whether Aiken will remain a part of tthe Augusta SMA or whether Columbus has a better quality of life -- is actually a matter of personal opinion/perspective and not a "fact." It is a fact that Augusta population is larger. It is not a fact that it will always remain so and it is not impossible to conceive of realistic hypotheticals in which ithat could change. Likewise, it is not a fact that Columbus has a better quality of life. However, it is my opinion that that is so and it is impossible (or nearly so) to concieve of any realistic hypotheicals which could change my opinion. I presume that anyone who voluntarily lives in Augusta, rather than Columbus, fells the opposite.

I didn't say that Columbus couldn't pass Augusta's MSA. That's a possiblity and more likely to happen than Aiken not being part of Augusta's MSA. No where did I say that it was a stretch for Columbus to pass Augusta's MSA, however It won't be because Aiken County left the metro. Even if the Kia plant came to Aiken it wouldn't change a thing. One of the largest employers of the metro...SRP is in Aiken County. The Fact is, if the platn had located there, a huge portion of those employees would live in other counties of the metro which would further strengthen the commute between the metros and further cement Aiken County's place as part of the Metro. I think your claim that Columbus could pass Augsuta's metro is valid..it could happen. It's your claim that Aiken could leave the metro that I find that lacks merit and wouldn't use that to support your argument if I were you.

Btw, I could care less about whether Columbus past Augusta in population. All of my previous posts have been about the Aiken issue. I don't see Augusta in competition with Columbus so I could care less who had more people.

[gah]

I didn't say that Columbus couldn't pass Augusta's MSA. That's a possiblity and more likely to happen than Aiken not being part of Augusta's MSA. No where did I say that it was a stretch for Columbus to pass Augusta's MSA, however It won't be because Aiken County left the metro. Even if the Kia plant came to Aiken it wouldn't change a thing. One of the largest employers of the metro...SRP is in Aiken County. The Fact is, if the platn had located there, a huge portion of those employees would live in other counties of the metro which would further strengthen the commute between the metros and further cement Aiken County's place as part of the Metro. I think your claim that Columbus could pass Augsuta's metro is valid..it could happen. It's your claim that Aiken could leave the metro that I find that lacks merit and wouldn't use that to support your argument if I were you.

Btw, I could care less about whether Columbus past Augusta in population. All of my previous posts have been about the Aiken issue. I don't see Augusta in competition with Columbus so I could care less who had more people.

I dont know what you have been reading -- but you totally miss my point. I have NEVER siad that Columbus would pass Augusta in population and I likewise dont give a rap whether or not that ever happens.

My SOLE point is and always has been the HYPOTHETICAL whereby the Columbus SMA MIGHT become larger than the Augusta SMA IN THE EVENT that Aiken became a separate SMA. However, NOONE argues that the resulting Augusta/Aiken CMSA would be larger than the resulting Columbus SMA.

I suspect you "problem" understanding what I am trying to say is with the deifintition of SMA and CMSA. Look it up and then reread the posts and maybe it will then become clear to you No one suggests that Aiken would leave the metro -- that is ludicrous. However, it is entirely possible that -- under the right circumstances -- Aiken could be counted as part of a CMSA rather than part of a SMA.

And if a KIA or comparable development was built in N. Aiken it cold have EVERYTHING to do with its designation. The work force would expand and -- if enough of the expanded work force stayed there in Aiken rather than commuted into Richmond -- so that the percentage of Aiken communter fell below the magic number set by the Census Bureau -- then Aiken would automatically become -- in the eyes of the census Bureau -- a separate SMA in a Augusta/Aiken CSMA.

I dont know why te possibility of an Augusta/Aiken CSMA is so horrifying. Think Dalls/Ft. Worth or Minneapolis/St. Paul or NYC/Newark. Not a bad class to be in. MSA and CSMA are just words . No one is thinking of "stealing" Aiken from you!

[Pillsbury]

In my opinion, how has it not? -- No need to explain that in detail, but the usual subjective things which lead me personally to prefer to live in Columbus rather than Augusta (or any other place that I might choose to live in Georgia).

How has Columbus not surpassed Augusta in quality of life? I'm not sure. That's why I'm asking you. I've never been to Columbus, so I'm not sure what the quality of life is like there. You've obviously been to Augusta, so what are some of the ways in which Columbus has surpassed Augusta in the quality of life department?

[krazeeboi]

As for the Columbia MSA/CSA question, that could certainly be a future possibility. Currently Northeast Aiken Co is one of the most sparsely populated areas in the state, comparable to much of the rest of the Savannah River counties. Even still, according to census 2000, about 2500 Aiken Co. commuters already make the trek into Lexington and Richland Co. That's small compared to the 12000 heading into Augusta, but it's still a relevant population. However Lexington Co. would really have to start getting crowded before a significant number of Columbia commuters start to find the podunk hyphenated areas of Aiken Co (Wagener-Salley, Ridge Spring-Monetta, Batesburg-Leesville in Lex Co) attractive.

I agree; something significant would have to occur in Lexington County in order to pull the majority of commuters into the Columbia MSA, and I don't see it happening anytime soon. The fact of the matter is that there's really nothing between Lexington and Aiken, and that area covers a good bit of land. The Columbia area economy would have to substantially outpace Augusta's over time, and right now, I don't see it happening.

[PJA]

My SOLE point is and always has been the HYPOTHETICAL whereby the Columbus SMA MIGHT become larger than the Augusta SMA IN THE EVENT that Aiken became a separate SMA. However, NOONE argues that the resulting Augusta/Aiken CMSA would be larger than the resulting Columbus SMA.

And my whole point is that it is exremely unlikely and farfetched. Aiken is tied to Augusta too much for that to happen. BTW I understand perfectly everything you're trying to say..you just have very little basis for your argument. Adding a Kia plant or any plant isn't going to help Aiken county stand on it's own. If Columbus SMA is going to be larger than Augusta's it won't be because of Aiken County breaking off. That is all I'm saying. I would never tell you that Columbus won't or can't outpace Augusta's SMA because I don't know what's going on in Columbus, but I can tell you what's going on here in the Augusta area and frankly, your specualtion is extremely unlikely. And I don't understand why you are getting mad because I am saying that. If you are going to come in here and give an opinion, then of course other people are going to give theirs so you don't have to be contentious.

[socaguy]

A large Kia plant or something similar in Aiken County might even mend the closeness that the Augusta MSA has even more. Id imagine many would live on the Georgia side of the river. After all, its a 20 minute jaunt on I-20.

and thats not just to the Aiken county line but well into the county.

[PJA]

A large Kia plant or something similar in Aiken County might even mend the closeness that the Augusta MSA has even more. Id imagine many would live on the Georgia side of the river. After all, its a 20 minute jaunt on I-20.

and thats not just to the Aiken county line but well into the county.

Exactly. That's what I was saying in one of my earlier posts. A plant of that magnitude will attract residents from Aiken, Columbia, Richmond and Burke counties. SRP is the perfect example. Most of the people that I know of that work there live in some other county besides Aiken and SRP has over 15000 employees. I don't think a car plant would even compare.

[gah]

And my whole point is that it is exremely unlikely and farfetched. Aiken is tied to Augusta too much for that to happen. BTW I understand perfectly everything you're trying to say..you just have very little basis for your argument. Adding a Kia plant or any plant isn't going to help Aiken county stand on it's own. If Columbus SMA is going to be larger than Augusta's it won't be because of Aiken County breaking off. That is all I'm saying. I would never tell you that Columbus won't or can't outpace Augusta's SMA because I don't know what's going on in Columbus, but I can tell you what's going on here in the Augusta area and frankly, your specualtion is extremely unlikely. And I don't understand why you are getting mad because I am saying that. If you are going to come in here and give an opinion, then of course other people are going to give theirs so you don't have to be contentious.

Dont believe I ever said was likely or not farfetched -- just that was a hypothetical.

True, there is no basis for my argument -- because is not an argument. Just a hypothetical observation

No mention of Aiken breaking off or standing on its own -- just wondering about possibility of redesignation from SMA to CSMA

No speculation -- just an observation and reaction to suggestion by another poster that growth was accelerating in Aiken County and asking what was the implication of that

Certainly not getting mad -- merely frustrated when people misuse words and or misrepresent mine

Dont mind contrary opinion -- if it is indeed an opinion and not an opinion/perspective masquerading as facts.

Not trying to be contentious -- simply trying to correct what I perceive to a distortion of my point and establish the point that I was in fact trying to make.

You may well know what is going on in the Augusta area -- but I am still unconvinced that you understand the difference between SMA and CSMA. If you did you would probably let this drop. It does not involve cultural or traditional ties or propinquity. It is simple economics/math. Nothing to be emotionally overwrought about. Nothing I have said implies that the Columbus SMA will outpace Augusta. As a matter of fact I conceded that Augusta will outpace Columbus (population wise) for the forseeable future regardless of whether the OMB continues to designate it an SMA or (based on hypotheticals that may or may not occur) changes the designation to the Augusta/Aiken CSMA. Frankly I am getting bored with the whole topic . Dont intend to respond again until you can tell me why -- if commuting patterns SHOULD change for some HYPOTHETICAL reason (such as a KIA-type plant in N Aiken County or Lexington County or some other remote but entirely feasible reason) so that Aiken no longer satisifies the OMB criteria for inclusion in Augusta SMA it still wont become the Augusta/Aiken CSMA. Until you do that. you have not responsed to my point (my point, not my opinion). Are you suggesting that there is not ANY possibility that Aiken County would EVER under ANY circumstance become its own SMA and become a part of an Augusta/Aiken CSMA? If so, why is it an exception to the OMB criteria? I understand why it wont happen soon. What I dont understand is why it wont ever happen under any circumstances. We can argue whether one Kia plant in N Aiken County is enough to tip the balance. What I cannot understand is the position that adding "any plant" that would siphon off a large enough number of workers who would otherwise commute to Richmond County is not going to "help" Aiken County's desgination as a SMA.

[gah]

Exactly. That's what I was saying in one of my earlier posts. A plant of that magnitue will attract residents from Aiken, Columbia, Richmond and Burke counties. SRP is the perfect example. Most of the people that I know of that work there live in some other county besides Aiken and SRP has over 15000 employees. I don't think a car plant would even compare.

Maybe or maybe not. What if SC had a requirement that employees at the hypothetical plant be SC residents? That was -- I believe -- a condition Alabama imposed on the Honda plant in Montgomery. At least I heard that -- but sure whether it is true.

And what if the plant were in Lexington County drawing more Aiken County residents from the commute to Richmond County?

The point is that all of this is mere speculation and hypothesis and never presented as anything else. We can argue what can or will happen under an infinite set of circumstances. It can and did happen to Macon/WR. Augusta/Aiken is a different place and different circumstances. But to suggest that it will never happen is -- personal opinion here -- not being realistic.

[PJA]

I'm sorry but I still don't see any basis for your opinion so if you want to beleive that then go ahead. It's very highly unlikely.

[gah]

I'm sorry but I still don't see any basis for your opinion so if you want to beleive that then go ahead. It's very highly unlikely.

For about the 100th (and hopefully last time)

I do Not have an opinion and never have

All I know is that there IS a difference between the definitions of SMA and CSAMA

Simply asked (not stated) whether the growth in Aiken County might result in a change in designation

I was simply soliciting opinions, not expressing one

Dont believe (and dont care) one way or the other

I can except that it is highly unlikely -- which I assume is still greater than a .000001% chance everyone "knows" that it wont.

[Pillsbury]

^ Haha. Just relax Gah. Take deep breaths and it'll be okay. We're just mighty proud of our South Carolina connections.

[Spartan]

It may interest you to know that the MSA statistics are not entirely created from objective population and commuter data. Sometimes politics comes into play, and counties will be joined together even if they aren't "technically" supposed to be. The best example that I know of is the Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson CSA. Originally Spartanburg split from Greenville and Anderson after the last Census to form its own separate CSA with Cherokee and Union Counties- but the politics and economics of the Upstate are otherwise joined at the hip, even if commuting data don't support it. So the CSA statistic was changed to reflect that, and its now one big happy CSA again.

My guess is that Aiken County would act in much the same way, particularly since so many commuters probably live in the western portion and commute accross the river. I wouldn't be suprised if Edgefield was pulled into the mix as well.