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teshadoh

Georgia Population Figures

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I am curious as to whether you have an opinion you care to share on which counties will comprise the non=Atlanta MSA's (including in- and out-of-state parts) in GA after 2010 census and how they will rank at that time,

IE, will a S-B-H MSA surpass Augusta MSA? Surpass Columbus MSA? What if Columbus MSA then includes Lee County?

In interesting what-if exercise.

I don't think the rankings will change for the larger MSAs. Rome may surpass Brunswick. Valdosta may surpass Warner Robins. Of course, if WR is rejoined with Macon, then Macon might jump past Columbus- but with the expansion of the military base, I think the population surge and ensuing population growth to support that surge for other businesses will be enough to solidify its place in line.

Now as for adding new counties- I really don't feel comfortable answering that. I am just not familiar enough with the growth patterns of Georgia's cities.

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SPARTAN -- Thanx for the input. Here is what I am thinking about the top 4 MSA's after Atlanta.

Augusta 525,000+ Think Augusta has drawn in as many counties into its MSA as possible for the foreseeable future. Anyone have another opinion?

Savannah 320,000+

395,000+ Add Hinesville/FT S (75,000+)

485,000+ Add HiltonH/Beaufort (165,000+)

560.000+ Add H/FTS/H/B (240,000+ )

Columbus 288,000+

413,000+ Add A/O (125,000+)

Macon 230,000+

358,000+ Add W/R (128,000+)

As you can see, seems that only Savannah can catch and pass Augusta for # 2 after Atlanta. As for 3, 4, 5 rank, it really all comes down to what, if any additions, are made to MSA. For example, Columbus could become # 3 or fall to # 5. Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. I am hearing that BRAC wont be "complete" until 2011 (keeps being pushed back). If so -- and census is April of '10 -- then the full effect of BRAC buildup on Columbus, Hinesville, Augusta, WR wont be reflected until '20 census!

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Augusta 525,000+ Think Augusta has drawn in as many counties into its MSA as possible for the foreseeable future. Anyone have another opinion?

I think we've discussed this somewhere in the Aug. forum, and I made a list of commuting percentages, but I'm not sure where.

Barnwell currently DOES meet commuting criteria, not to mention the fact that 1/3 of SRS is in Barnwell. McCormick is close to meeting commuting criteria, and with such a small county, 1 new subdivision near the GA border cut put them over. Lincoln Co, GA has a major percentage of Augusta commuters (like 30% of workforce) and is a very likely addition as people move north of Columbia Co to the lake. HOWEVER, I'm assuming neither of these counties meet the % urbanization criteria, as they are almost exclusively rural. A few GA counties have ties, but they're not significant. So my conclusion is that the only realistic new metro Augusta counties are Barnwell, Lincoln, and McCormick, for a whopping addition of ~41,000 mostly rural residents. Small unforeseen shifts could push rural GA places like Warren, Jefferson, and others, but there are no LARGE counties on the brink of becoming part of the MSA.

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I think we've discussed this somewhere in the Aug. forum, and I made a list of commuting percentages, but I'm not sure where.

Barnwell currently DOES meet commuting criteria, not to mention the fact that 1/3 of SRS is in Barnwell. McCormick is close to meeting commuting criteria, and with such a small county, 1 new subdivision near the GA border cut put them over. Lincoln Co, GA has a major percentage of Augusta commuters (like 30% of workforce) and is a very likely addition as people move north of Columbia Co to the lake. HOWEVER, I'm assuming neither of these counties meet the % urbanization criteria, as they are almost exclusively rural. A few GA counties have ties, but they're not significant. So my conclusion is that the only realistic new metro Augusta counties are Barnwell and McCormick, for a whopping addition of ~41,000 mostly rural residents. Small unforeseen shifts could push rural GA places like Warren, Jefferson, and others, but there are no LARGE counties on the brink of becoming part of the MSA.

Also several small rural counties close to Columbus and possible candidates (Talbot, Taylor etc) for inclusion but really not a factor in rankings. Assume same is likely true for Macon as well. Chambers County (35,000+) in Alabama is probably going to grow rapidly as the result of KIA, but I dont see it becoming a part of the Columbus SMA. More likely to join with A-O or LaGrange MSA and at some future point be a constituent element of a Columbus/A/O/LG CSA.

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SPARTAN -- Thanx for the input. Here is what I am thinking about the top 4 MSA's after Atlanta.

Augusta 525,000+ Think Augusta has drawn in as many counties into its MSA as possible for the foreseeable future. Anyone have another opinion?

Savannah 320,000+

395,000+ Add Hinesville/FT S (75,000+)

485,000+ Add HiltonH/Beaufort (165,000+)

560.000+ Add H/FTS/H/B (240,000+ )

Columbus 288,000+

413,000+ Add A/O (125,000+)

Macon 230,000+

358,000+ Add W/R (128,000+)

As you can see, seems that only Savannah can catch and pass Augusta for # 2 after Atlanta. As for 3, 4, 5 rank, it really all comes down to what, if any additions, are made to MSA. For example, Columbus could become # 3 or fall to # 5. Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. I am hearing that BRAC wont be "complete" until 2011 (keeps being pushed back). If so -- and census is April of '10 -- then the full effect of BRAC buildup on Columbus, Hinesville, Augusta, WR wont be reflected until '20 census!

I can foresee Macon's Metro expanding and including all of these counties which would bring the Metro pop to about 500,000.

• Baldwin County

• Bibb County *

• Crawford County *

• Houston County

• Jones County *

• Monroe County *

• Peach County

• Pulaski County

• Putnam County

• Twiggs County

• Wilkinson County

http://www.georgia.gov/00/channel_title/0,...02_5067,00.html

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I was confining my guesstimations to 2010 census. And to counties that could meet the SMA qualifications for inclusion. Are you suggesting that Macon SMA (not CSA or other entity) could be 500,000 in 2010?

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I think we've discussed this somewhere in the Aug. forum, and I made a list of commuting percentages, but I'm not sure where.

Barnwell currently DOES meet commuting criteria, not to mention the fact that 1/3 of SRS is in Barnwell. McCormick is close to meeting commuting criteria, and with such a small county, 1 new subdivision near the GA border cut put them over. Lincoln Co, GA has a major percentage of Augusta commuters (like 30% of workforce) and is a very likely addition as people move north of Columbia Co to the lake. HOWEVER, I'm assuming neither of these counties meet the % urbanization criteria, as they are almost exclusively rural. A few GA counties have ties, but they're not significant. So my conclusion is that the only realistic new metro Augusta counties are Barnwell, Lincoln, and McCormick, for a whopping addition of ~41,000 mostly rural residents. Small unforeseen shifts could push rural GA places like Warren, Jefferson, and others, but there are no LARGE counties on the brink of becoming part of the MSA.

McCormick just doesn't feel connected to me at all. Maybe its more dependant than I thought. I figured they would rely more on Greenwood, SC for their needs than Augusta.

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It's about even between Greenwood and Augusta commuting. However, McCormick, like Lincoln Co across the lake, is seeing a trickle of lakefront development in it's extreme southern portions that is clearly geared to the Augusta area... If that accelerates (and I think it will, being so close to Columbia Co, GA), only then will it become a part of the Augusta area. In fact, Fury's Ferry Rd, which is one of the major residential corridors in Columbia Co, leads right into McCormick Co, and it's fully developed up to the border already...

A lot of that county is protected forest, so I don't think we have to worry about it becoming overrun...

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I was confining my guesstimations to 2010 census. And to counties that could meet the SMA qualifications for inclusion. Are you suggesting that Macon SMA (not CSA or other entity) could be 500,000 in 2010?

If Macon MSA contained all of the these counties in 2010 it would have a pop of 500,000

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If Macon MSA contained all of the these counties in 2010 it would have a pop of 500,000

"if" is one thing, but "could" be included in the SMA is quite another.

IF all the counties included in Region 8 (Columbus) on the site you linked were included in Columbus SMA in 2010, population would probably be well above 500,000. Could it happen? No way.

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Agreeing with Topher. Mcormick, (the town itself) is probably just as linked with Greenwood as it is with Augusta...probably moreso. However, as Topher mentioned, there are a few small riverfront subdivisions that have popped up over the last 5-7 years right at the border of Columbia County Ga. As he also mentioned it is pretty much built up all the way to the Mcormick County border and Furys Ferry road is booming. All it would take is a large scale subdivision to go up in Mcormick Co., (which will eventually happen) and bam...it would become a part of the MSA.

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If Macon MSA contained all of the these counties in 2010 it would have a pop of 500,000

I'm a little bit curious about Macon's population. Since the 1990's the auctual city of Macon has been declining in population, but throughout the forums it indicates that people are leaving the city and moving to the county. Primarily which counties around Macon are they migrating to is it just Bibb or what and how many of those counties are contained in Macons MSA as of now? That could be a big idea as to which counties are going to be added to Macons MSA.

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I'm a little bit curious about Macon's population. Since the 1990's the auctual city of Macon has been declining in population, but throughout the forums it indicates that people are leaving the city and moving to the county. Primarily which counties around Macon are they migrating to is it just Bibb or what and how many of those counties are contained in Macons MSA as of now? That could be a big idea as to which counties are going to be added to Macons MSA.

Most of the pop is moving out into Bibb, Crawford and Houston counties..Which Macon is now planning to expand the city limits 360 degrees around the entire city to try to gain pop back which has move to the county and to incorporate all the new huge commercial & residential developments out the city......over 65% of Bibb is developed and if Macon expands they might as well just incorporate the entire county.......Which i see happen in the very near future...... Which will bring Macon city pop to about 160,000....

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Most of the pop is moving out into Bibb, Crawford and Houston counties..Which Macon is now planning to expand the city limits 360 degrees around the entire city to try to gain pop back which has move to the county and to incorporate all the new huge commercial & residential developments out the city......over 65% of Bibb is developed and if Macon expands they might as well just incorporate the entire county.......Which i see happen in the very near future...... Which will bring Macon city pop to about 160,000....

Ok thanks for the info I was just curious about where all the migration was going. I do see consolidation as a possiblity as was the case with other GA cities.

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I was confining my guesstimations to 2010 census. And to counties that could meet the SMA qualifications for inclusion. Are you suggesting that Macon SMA (not CSA or other entity) could be 500,000 in 2010?

http://www.mgrdc.org/code/welcome.html

This a great site to provide factual information that Macon & Warner Robins interact more than enough to be one Metro.....

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http://www.mgrdc.org/code/welcome.html

This a great site to provide factual information that Macon & Warner Robins interact more than enough to be one Metro.....

Im not the one you have to convince -- Census Bureau is (actually, it may be OMB). At least insofar as SMA is concerned. Anyone with a caae of boosterism can claim that x and y are "one Metro." Columbus and Auburn/Opelika should be -- in my opinion -- considered as one Metro that is considerably larger than Macon/WR. But -- regardless of my opinion -- it isnt one SMA unless and until the Census Bureau (or OMB) says so.

At any rate, the question was not whether Macon and WR interact enough to be in one Metro -- it was whether Macon SMA would be 500,000 in 2010. Even if Macon and WR did recombine into one SMA, it seems the result would not be 500,000 -- unless it grew by 20-25% in the next 2 years. The Macon Trade Area is propably 500,000+ -- but cannot confuse "metro," "SMA," and "trade Area" as each has very bdifferent meaning.

The info on the link appears to be from 1999

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Im not the one you have to convince -- Census Bureau is (actually, it may be OMB). At least insofar as SMA is concerned. Anyone with a caae of boosterism can claim that x and y are "one Metro." Columbus and Auburn/Opelika should be -- in my opinion -- considered as one Metro that is considerably larger than Macon/WR. But -- regardless of my opinion -- it isnt one SMA unless and until the Census Bureau (or OMB) says so.

At any rate, the question was not whether Macon and WR interact enough to be in one Metro -- it was whether Macon SMA would be 500,000 in 2010. Even if Macon and WR did recombine into one SMA, it seems the result would not be 500,000 -- unless it grew by 20-25% in the next 2 years. The Macon Trade Area is propably 500,000+ -- but cannot confuse "metro," "SMA," and "trade Area" as each has very bdifferent meaning.

The info on the link appears to be from 1999

I would totally agree that Columbus and Opelika-Auburn are part of the same metro now. Just look at the amount of interaction taking place. Local tv stations WTVM(abc affiliate) & WRBL(cbs affiliate) have setup offices in Opelika to cover news for that area while the main office remain in Columbus also the CW station WSWS has offices in both locations. Many Columbus based business have setup offices in A-O and vice versa with A-O businesses setting up operations in Columbus. Then Smith Stations, Alabama a town of over 20,000 people located in southern Lee County actually touches the city limits of Columbus. From the City limits of Smiths Station to the City limits of Opelika there is only a mere 11 miles between them. The citys have grown alot closer even though Columbus remains the larger and regional center. Also when bad enough incidents occur Columbus still remains the regional tramua center for Opelika-Auburn & Lee County. Due to so much interation occuring between the two in the past few years I can see how the Census may include Lee County into Columbus MSA. I'm not really sure about how Macon & Warner Robbins interact. Usually in that part of the state i'm just in Macon.

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I personally believe that the Savannah area will be the first to hit 1-million. We will have a better idea in 2010.

I think it may be possible in terms of CSA, but that's it.

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I hate to see this happen to Georgia. I've loved Georgia for so many years. Georgia is destroying itself with all of this wild, unregulated growth. The pollution in Atlanta is terrible, Lake Lanier is drying up, and the creeks and rivers of the N. Georgia mountains are so polluted they are practically contaminated. I will never go canoeing in N. Georgia again. Everybody in Georgia thinks that this growth is such a great thing. The bottom line is it is only more humans. That's all it is. And it has ruined Georgia for the rest of our lives.

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Great News, Georgia is the fastest growing state in the southeast population wise for 2007 with the state adding more than 200,000 new residents this year. We are ranked 5th nationally and highest for states east of the Mississippi River

Article from WTVM about fastest growing states in the U.S.

Thats ok NC is still rolling along right behind ya...

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I hate to see this happen to Georgia. I've loved Georgia for so many years. Georgia is destroying itself with all of this wild, unregulated growth. The pollution in Atlanta is terrible, Lake Lanier is drying up, and the creeks and rivers of the N. Georgia mountains are so polluted they are practically contaminated. I will never go canoeing in N. Georgia again. Everybody in Georgia thinks that this growth is such a great thing. The bottom line is it is only more humans. That's all it is. And it has ruined Georgia for the rest of our lives.

Uhh...You're from New Orleans? Wanna talk about a place that's dirty & unlivable?

If you're going to make comments like this, be careful....

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