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Hampton Roads Housing/Real estate/and Economy


urbanvb

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Doh, more positive real estate blabber in the Pilot today!

Even though national sources are saying mortgage lenders are laying off, the new fed chairman Bernake said he will raise interest rates (good), and reports are that mortage lending is at a 2 year low (seasonally adjusted even so you can't blame it on the time of year). This is good news, because falling house prices is good news. The good news that Pilot reports is bad news, because overvalued houses and consumer spending from HELOCs is bad.

Want to see something wild?

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker...rginia/Norfolk/

To infinity and beyond.

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Doh, more positive real estate blabber in the Pilot today!

Even though national sources are saying mortgage lenders are laying off, the new fed chairman Bernake said he will raise interest rates (good), and reports are that mortage lending is at a 2 year low (seasonally adjusted even so you can't blame it on the time of year). This is good news, because falling house prices is good news. The good news that Pilot reports is bad news, because overvalued houses and consumer spending from HELOCs is bad.

Want to see something wild?

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker...rginia/Norfolk/

To infinity and beyond.

Mister positive stikes again :rolleyes:

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Doh, more positive real estate blabber in the Pilot today!

Even though national sources are saying mortgage lenders are laying off, the new fed chairman Bernake said he will raise interest rates (good), and reports are that mortage lending is at a 2 year low (seasonally adjusted even so you can't blame it on the time of year). This is good news, because falling house prices is good news. The good news that Pilot reports is bad news, because overvalued houses and consumer spending from HELOCs is bad.

Want to see something wild?

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker...rginia/Norfolk/

To infinity and beyond.

First, housing stock is going up all over the country except many markets in the South, that is true. But the housing tracker doesn't even go back a year. What was the housing stock like in 2004, 2003, 2000, 1990. or even last March? If you wanna have fun, compare HR to smaller markets like Raleigh, Tuscon, and JAX. All have more than 3 times the number of houses on the market according to this deceptive site. Hell, Orlando has 7 times as many houses for sale.

Second, those valuation numbers are bogus. The disclaimer at the bottom says that the prices are derived from the asking price of homes on the Multiple Listing Service. However, unless the user is a realtor, then they do not have access to all the homes listed on MLS. That is where the National Association of Realtors comes in. The NAR numbers are closing prices, which almost always tend to be lower than asking prices. If you're going to use asking price as a source then I can use offer price as a source. Point being, neither asking nor offer is the correct housing valuation. Only closing price is because that is what the market settles on.

Imagine listing prices of stocks by asking price. Wild Oats closed at 17.29 today. At closing there was an asking price of 25.57 and a range of offers from 8.38 to 16.32. Only the 17.29/share value is the true value of the stock because it is the price upon which the market agreed.

Once again, Telmnstr, you are full of it.

Edited by hoobo
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The closing price is the actual price. I would love to see a really good analysis as to why our housing prices and assessments have risen so much in recent years. We've made some modest employment gains, but nothing spectacular, being stable as we are with all the military here. We're not a "hot" business market at the moment. If you look at demographics, alternative investments, job growth, immigration and so on the simple supply demand shortage answer doesn't seem to explain it. What makes us different? Note that in the Pilot article today about rising real estate assessments, lots of the big gainers in other states are resort/retirement communities. The paper doesn't offer any expert opinions or analysis (probably to their credit).

By the way, "Mr. Positive" may not have used the best data to make his point, but that doesn't make him necessarily wrong, just possibly wrong. Asking prices might be a reasonable proxy for real value changes if they are used simply as an indicator of relative change. Who knows if we're in a bubble or not? I hope not, but I'm a homeowner. Anyway, historically, housing is an amazingly stable investment, even with bumps, jumps and humps.

Edited by Padman
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Our location is what is different and a lot of locales near the water have all shared the same jump in value. If you take a look at the Pilot's top list below from yesterday, 7 out out 10 properties are all east coast beach towns. I too find it amazing that so many people desire to live here. I think one advantage (perhaps among more) we have is that we are centrally located on the coast and only a 6-8 hour drive of NYC and a mere 3 hours from DC.

housing.jpg

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The closing price is the actual price. I would love to see a really good analysis as to why our housing prices and assessments have risen so much in recent years. We've made some modest employment gains, but nothing spectacular, being stable as we are with all the military here. We're not a "hot" business market at the moment. If you look at demographics, alternative investments, job growth, immigration and so on the simple supply demand shortage answer doesn't seem to explain it. What makes us different? Note that in the Pilot article today about rising real estate assessments, lots of the big gainers in other states are resort/retirement communities. The paper doesn't offer any expert opinions or analysis (probably to their credit).

As you alluded to HR is a retirement community, and retirees have money. The Virginia markets of HR, Richmond, Cville, and NoVa have seen high gains. I believe that the NC markets of Raleigh and Charlotte will start to see high gains over the next two years. What sets them apart from HR is the excess of supply. HR appears to lack the major homebuilders such as Lennar and Centex that you find in places like Raleigh. VB and Norfolk have little growth in terms of new homes so existing homes go up in price. VB also appears to approve only high-priced new developments making sure that new tax revenues jusify new service expenditures. In addition, to reap the best economic reward, developers build expensive homes. Toss in the metered growth of Chesapeake, Suffolk, Newport News, and the surrounding counties and you have a formula for supply not meeting the demand.

Edited by hoobo
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From today's Pilot -

Survey shows area real estate is booming (for now)

The average price for a new single-family detached home was $397,783 last year, up 27.8 percent from 2004. The average price for a new condominium rose 18.2 percent to $281,278, while the average price for a new townhome edged up 1.6 percent to $266,389.

It's more expensive to buy a newly constructed, single-family detached home in Virginia Beach than in any other city in the region. Such homes averaged $464,344 last year.

These numbers are staggering to me. An average new condo costs $281k? :huh:

article

For a copy of the annual review and forecast released by the E.V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development at Old Dominion University go here.

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From today's Pilot -

Survey shows area real estate is booming (for now)

These numbers are staggering to me. An average new condo costs $281k? :huh:

article

For a copy of the annual review and forecast released by the E.V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development at Old Dominion University go here.

Wish the govenor would push jobs to the region that would pay for these prices on these houses!

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  • 2 weeks later...

HR commercial real estate sets blistering pace. :)

The Hampton Roads commercial investment property market has been setting a blistering pace as we benefit from this mobility of capital and a stable economy. In spite of the concerns and efforts surrounding the BRAC base closure recommendations, the Hampton Roads MSA economy, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, was one of a limited number of MSAs nationwide to show an increase in average nonagricultural employment. The gains are not large, but they are positive and this reinforces the stability of our market.
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Mr. positive here!

I realize the housing tracker site is not the best data. They admit this. The data that would be useful is not going to be availible to us mere mortals. The MLS system for Hampton Roads is owned by the Realtors. It is not in there interest to have negative data out there.

I participate on a few other message boards. One of them has a thread going about Craigslist, where they dig up troubled buyers trying to dump properties from Craigslist. I looked for our area, and did some digging. In my attempt to find the sale price of the property (it's oddly hidden in the Virginia Beach cities system, listed as a gift ?) I ran into the next house over. It's like every one of the houses on the street are bought by people and immediately put up for rent. They paid stupid prices, some $300k for a cheap 2000 square foot duplex, that appears to have an odd lack of windows (to save costs?). It's dumb. Considering the median in 2000 was $54k, that's nearly 6 times median salary for what I will say appears to be a mediocre starter home.

Also, an interesting article in the Pilot today pegged the new taxes on property value increases in Chesapeake as something to the tune of 47 million. That will be 47 million dollars out of the pockets of the residents. Granted, Chesapeake might lower taxes to help, but still... I doubt the raises of the citizens match that.

I work for a small technology company in Hamtpon Roads. They are truely out of place. It's something like you would expect in DC or California. The building is full of lawyers, credit counselers and city gov't workers. The impression I've gotten from the people that have relocated here is not that cheery. They do not like the thug / ghetto element. I'm not trying to say they dislike black people at all, but the hip hop culture comes off to them as lazy people unwilling to properly fasten their pants to their waste.

Not to drag my business in here, but I was pushing for a pay increase and they declined. My landlord has tried to raise the rent $75, I fought it to halfway... many of the new rentals are these so-called wannabe investors that bought a house yesterday for the inflated price, and are trying to rent it out and cover their inflated costs. They aren't going to be prepared to handle the mainteance or issues. Many probably used risky subprime financing (0 down, teaser rates) and they will not be able to afford the places in the future.

Hampton Roads was Hampton Roads. It's a Navy town, with some thugs and drugs. A low cost of living made it viable, and this is what our employers expect. Check it out sometime, our region has been marketed as low cost of living. This isn't true anymore.

As far as Hampton Roads being different.... nothing is different. Every city that has a bubble going down has some reason it's different. It's not, it's all the same. Housing is hot beacuse the mortgage lenders aren't carrying the risk, so they are making very risky loans to people. The people don't understand what they are getting, and the mortgage lenders are making a killing off of the suckers.

No one I know could afford their house in the current market using a normal loan. Most of my friends are in the IT / technology profession.

Major media is finally starting to report this. This means the sheeple will be reprogrammed, then none of them will buy. Nothing will move, sellers will stand strong because in their minds they deserve the $150K profit they supposidly made over the last 2 years doing nothing (They just consider themselves super savvy smart for buying ahead). What will happen is builders will just undercut them. People that bought a while ago and need to move will undercut them. Forclosures on subprime lenders who can't handle the ARM / IO adjustments will add to the inventory. Lets see how quick chesapeake is on changing the values of the properties.

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Nowadays there are just as many whites in hip hop culture as there are blacks so I would truly hope that you're not trying to single out any ethnic groups here Telmnstr. As for the rest of your post, more of the same, so i'll refer you to earlier comments i've made on the subject in all of the other threads you've visited.

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Mr. positive here!

I realize the housing tracker site is not the best data. They admit this. The data that would be useful is not going to be availible to us mere mortals. The MLS system for Hampton Roads is owned by the Realtors. It is not in there interest to have negative data out there.

I participate on a few other message boards. One of them has a thread going about Craigslist, where they dig up troubled buyers trying to dump properties from Craigslist. I looked for our area, and did some digging. In my attempt to find the sale price of the property (it's oddly hidden in the Virginia Beach cities system, listed as a gift ?) I ran into the next house over. It's like every one of the houses on the street are bought by people and immediately put up for rent. They paid stupid prices, some $300k for a cheap 2000 square foot duplex, that appears to have an odd lack of windows (to save costs?). It's dumb. Considering the median in 2000 was $54k, that's nearly 6 times median salary for what I will say appears to be a mediocre starter home.

Also, an interesting article in the Pilot today pegged the new taxes on property value increases in Chesapeake as something to the tune of 47 million. That will be 47 million dollars out of the pockets of the residents. Granted, Chesapeake might lower taxes to help, but still... I doubt the raises of the citizens match that.

You haven't moved somewhere else? The way you talk I would leave and never look back. I don't understand people that complain about everything but don't leave and go somewhere else. This place is more than a Navy town. That stereotype is very OLD! Things are changing and If you don't want to accept them then I don't know what to tell you.

I work for a small technology company in Hamtpon Roads. They are truely out of place. It's something like you would expect in DC or California. The building is full of lawyers, credit counselers and city gov't workers. The impression I've gotten from the people that have relocated here is not that cheery. They do not like the thug / ghetto element. I'm not trying to say they dislike black people at all, but the hip hop culture comes off to them as lazy people unwilling to properly fasten their pants to their waste.

Not to drag my business in here, but I was pushing for a pay increase and they declined. My landlord has tried to raise the rent $75, I fought it to halfway... many of the new rentals are these so-called wannabe investors that bought a house yesterday for the inflated price, and are trying to rent it out and cover their inflated costs. They aren't going to be prepared to handle the mainteance or issues. Many probably used risky subprime financing (0 down, teaser rates) and they will not be able to afford the places in the future.

Hampton Roads was Hampton Roads. It's a Navy town, with some thugs and drugs. A low cost of living made it viable, and this is what our employers expect. Check it out sometime, our region has been marketed as low cost of living. This isn't true anymore.

As far as Hampton Roads being different.... nothing is different. Every city that has a bubble going down has some reason it's different. It's not, it's all the same. Housing is hot beacuse the mortgage lenders aren't carrying the risk, so they are making very risky loans to people. The people don't understand what they are getting, and the mortgage lenders are making a killing off of the suckers.

No one I know could afford their house in the current market using a normal loan. Most of my friends are in the IT / technology profession.

Major media is finally starting to report this. This means the sheeple will be reprogrammed, then none of them will buy. Nothing will move, sellers will stand strong because in their minds they deserve the $150K profit they supposidly made over the last 2 years doing nothing (They just consider themselves super savvy smart for buying ahead). What will happen is builders will just undercut them. People that bought a while ago and need to move will undercut them. Forclosures on subprime lenders who can't handle the ARM / IO adjustments will add to the inventory. Lets see how quick chesapeake is on changing the values of the properties.

:rolleyes:

Edited by rusthebuss
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Telmnstr, whats your problem? Couldn't make it with the big boys in the big city? I take it you would have moved by now if you could. Was this firm the the only one who would take you? I hope for your sake you can find a job in D.C. or NYC where there are no thugs or drugs. I do thank you for gracing our region with your presence. Were not worthy! :cry:

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I still feel that the real estate market is very hot in certain areas...in Port Warwick houses are being resold, and they have not even gone on the market yet. They just sold the model home, 2500 square feet for 540,000 dollars. The condo I just bought there was not even on the market and there were three other competing bids. Yes, the market may be slowing, but in certain areas, it will stay very active

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It's not cheery stuff, but I work with a lot of planners, architects, developers, appraisers and the like and many of them are saying similar things about the local market. Things do not add up. I believe that certain sub-markets will be very healthy, and I'm hopeful that the better housing projects will do well, but it just has to be time to slow down for a little while on the condomania. Not everything proposed will be profitable and some of it simply won't get built. Like most communities, we have our assets and we have out liabilities. Leaving race out of it, this is not a bastion of intellectualism, creative thinkers or iconoclasts. Nonetheless, a lot of great people do live here, and we more than hold out own as a cultural and recreational center. I'm staying, but I'm not buying real estate right now.

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I still feel that the real estate market is very hot in certain areas...in Port Warwick houses are being resold, and they have not even gone on the market yet. They just sold the model home, 2500 square feet for 540,000 dollars. The condo I just bought there was not even on the market and there were three other competing bids. Yes, the market may be slowing, but in certain areas, it will stay very active

I agree. I belive that the southside market will slow down quite a bit in the next year but i don't believe we're gonna crash and burn like some predict, or even look forward to. I think we will fall back to our historical norm, which is not really a bad thing. Since our market was alread undersupplied to begin with I think that we will be somewhat cushioned from the effects of this moderately inflated bubble (other metro areas will likely not be as lucky). I think the penisula market will continue to be hot for quite some time because they've barely even started builing condos. Meridian and Port Warwick are really their only major projects and I know there has to be more demand than that.

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  • 3 weeks later...

An interesting read in this week's Inside Business.

Scrubbing the numbers

Economic development activity is a moving target

The state and localities in the region have closed the books on jobs and investment for 2005.

But the devil is in the numbers. There are two sets of books. If we were discussing publicly traded companies, the Securities and Exchange Commission would be launching a major investigation into possible fraud and Elliott Spitzer

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The great American condo glut

After several years of gung-ho development in south Florida, San Diego, Las Vegas and other major markets, the once-hot condo market is headed for a slump.
Only mention the article cause it mentions Va. Beach briefly:

And in seven markets studied by NAR, such as Virginia Beach, Va. and Toledo, Ohio, prices actually dipped, mirroring the rest of the housing market.
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Great article. I have heard things are really cooling here in HR as well though thankfully not like So FL or Las Vegas. Although they say we are not overbuilding in our area it will be interesting to see how things turn out seeing the great number of condos coming onto the market esp in areas such as DT Norfolk or the CBD in Va Beach.

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