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Hampton Roads Housing/Real estate/and Economy


urbanvb

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Here is a link to the full list: Best Places For Business And Careers

Important to note that only low costs got us that high a ranking -- we were 23rd in costs, but 114th in % of population over 25 with a bachelor's degree. Interesting to sort the list by education, and see that the highest cost areas had the best education scores. Dovetails perfectly with Dr. Florida's thesis that smarts are the "cash crop" of the 21st century. Until we improve education here, we are doomed to remain a backwater, in many ways.

:rofl: I'm going to move to Richmond in a couple of weeks and they have a better percentage of population over 25 with a bachelor's degree. Yeah, New York has the best education score and also the highest cost of living, such as San Francisco and the Silicon Valley, unfortunately. If I moved from Richmond to New York City, I'd have to make twice the amount because the lifestyle and apartment size costs a lot.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Apartment market heats up

Confident that they can harvest high yields, institutional investors and private equity firms are buying both old and new apartment properties in Hampton Roads.

Attention on apartment properties in the local market by high-flying financiers is a recent phenomenon.

But a stable economy, population growth and the propulsion of real estate prices has attracted companies like Goldman Sachs, Prudential Insurance and Empire, eager to find consistent yields among neighborhoods on the Peninsula and Southside.

Apartment occupancy rates in Hampton Roads are hovering around 95 percent, better than major markets like Raleigh or Richmond. Landlords can afford to increase rents in such an environment, boosting investment values.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Rents have climbed 37 percent since April 2002, catching the attention of the Capital Markets Group of the commercial real estate firm of Cushman & Wakefield and its clients.

Yow! Salaries (especially after inflation) definitly haven't done that! I believe they've been stagnant at best. I noticed that. 2002ish we rented a 2600 square foot home in whiteville VaBeach, $1350 a month. Now it's $1137/month for an apartment. You dip too low you end up in the hood, but perhaps it could be more fun to live there.

I'd keep an eye on anything that private equity groups buy. Some of them are pretty shady. Buy a good company, make it look good while loading it with debt, throw it on the stock market and bail out leaving others to clean up and what not.

In terms of rising rents, you can only squeeze so hard. If the jobs can't sustain it, people will leave. Renters actually have to have the money to pay for the place they are staying. It's an odd fact, but it's more difficult to rent an apartment from a company than to buy a house. There is more in the way of credit checks when renting, then some of the subprime loan products that brokers were giving people. Also, you can't extract the equity in loan form from an apartment to pay the mortgage.

Credit card debt has taken a steep increase recently... is the home ATM machine running low and consumers looking for other sources of money flow?

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Hey guys, I just have to share this, to re-enforce my point of view.

On today's Link, page 7 there is a horrific advertisement for a mortgage company called "Nationsfirst Mortgage of Virginia, LLC" ... Broker License #MB-1554.

The adverisement reads:

Shevika Ward, Vice President

"Stop Dreaming, Start Living"

100% Financing with 600 Credit Score

Residential

Up to 90% Commercial Properties

100% Stated Income Investor

Reverse Mortgages

Interest Only 40, 45, 50 Year Amortization

1 Day Out of Bankruptcy Up to 100%

100% No Documentation Loan

Low Rates VA & Conventional Loans

Credit Repair Department

Looking for experienced loan officers.

It has a "House For Rent - Please call for details" on the right side.

Also, the email address is at hotmail. LOL.

What does this say? Unfortunately, it still goes on. This means that anyone with a stable job, good income and the desire to buy a house is going to be competing against people who probably shouldn't be buying a house. If there is no skin in the game, and the lender is willing to front all money to someone who isn't responsible enough to have savings, why would anyone expect the person to care if they go to bankruptcy? Why would the buyer even care what they are paying? So what, buy it, live there for a year, 6 months of which you pay nothing. Especially when they can get another 100% loan 1 day out of bankruptcy?

This friends, is a golden trophy of that which has driven the housing bubble in the USA.

I'm surprised to find it so late in the game, I must admit.

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HR economy grows more that 3% in first half of 2007

The housing market remains the soft spot, with a drop of almost 23 percent in the number of building permits issued for single-family homes in the first five months of 2007 and a 16 percent decrease in the value of those permits compared with the same period last year. Nonetheless, regional construction businesses continued to add employees, the forecast showed.

"As indicated in our second quarter forecast, residential construction's expected negative effect on regional employment data appears to be more than offset by a strong commercial construction market, the redirection of work from new home construction to home remodeling and by contractors holding on to as many of their employees as they can while hoping for a turn in the market," Agarwal wrote.

Looking forward through the third quarter of the year, the forecast called for a slower rate of decline in the housing market, amounting to an estimated 4 percent drop in the value of single-family housing permits from the third quarter of 2006. ODU forecasters predicted that employment will grow by about 1 percent across most economic sectors this quarter, keeping the region's unemployment rate "considerably" below the national level.

The region's retailers have seen a 5.2 percent increase in sales for the first five months of the year, according to the forecast. That beats the 2.3 percent uptick in U.S. chain store sales between February and June, as reported by the International Council of Shopping Centers, a trade group for the nation's malls.

Guess things aren't as gloomy as were originally predicted. :whistling:

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I think they beat us... isn't the lower the risk mean it's a better market? Maybe I'm reading it wrong.

Tels right. Our score was 476 and Bmores was 400. That means we have a 47.6% chance our market will decline over the next two years compared to Bmores 40% chance. This means that their market is doing better than ours according to this report.

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Tels right. Our score was 476 and Bmores was 400. That means we have a 47.6% chance our market will decline over the next two years compared to Bmores 40% chance. This means that their market is doing better than ours according to this report.

Right... We win in appreciation values, but we lose in future risk of decline.

Edited by cpeakesqr
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  • 4 weeks later...

CNNMoney Article with Foreclosure List Referenced in InRich article

The company of metros at the bottom is interesting. My question is are HR and Richmond at the bottom because the the buyers could afford the loans or are they good because both metro areas lagged behind the ones at the top of the list by a one to two years? Then again, DC metro and Baltimore are near the bottom for major metro areas and they preceded HR and Richmond in terms of house price escalation. Also, many Texas and NC metro areas are much higher on the list despite their relatively low growth in home prices. I expected to see less affluent California (Riverside, Bakersfield) and Florida (Jax) cities on the list as well as the speculator heavens of Miami and Vegas; but Dallas, Fort Worth and Indianapolis, all of which have good income to home price ratios, are surprises.

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I think HR and Richmond have more buyers who can actually afford their homes than the higher risk areas mainly because the two metro areas didn't/don't have explosive population growth as a whole as areas such as Vegas, Cali, Florida, or DC. The high-growth areas had the high demand for homes coupled with the mortgage mess while HR and Richmond didn't have hordes of newcomers to rack up prices and try to stretch their budgets to buy a house that they could barely find or someone else might buy.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I think HR and Richmond have more buyers who can actually afford their homes than the higher risk areas mainly because the two metro areas didn't/don't have explosive population growth as a whole as areas such as Vegas, Cali, Florida, or DC. The high-growth areas had the high demand for homes coupled with the mortgage mess while HR and Richmond didn't have hordes of newcomers to rack up prices and try to stretch their budgets to buy a house that they could barely find or someone else might buy.

Huh? The housing prices in our area doubled in a few years, and when adjusted for inflation, the salaries went down. If this isn't a bad sign, I don't know what is?

Two years ago when I said prices are going to drop off a cliff, people would scoff and say 30% price increases a year forever. Now I think we are pas the "it will just stagnate forever until they start skyrocketing again" to the "Ohhh crap, the only thing holding our economy up has been the housing/credit bubble.. people have been borrowing loads of debt as the large corporations shovel many of the jobs and intellectual property overseas.

The less the little man makes, the more the CEO and big investors make... and they are doing good. Once the credit dries up look out below.

50% declines from current prices in the Hampton Roads metro area is very likely.

I don't know what you guys are seeing, but I know *ALOT* of people talking about leaving. Even if someone bought years ago, there is a wealth effect to seeing huge potential returns in the future... that makes people feel good, and spend. Once that is gone, consumers butts will pucker up and consumer spending (A huge portion of the GDP) will come to a halt.

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CNNMoney Article with Foreclosure List Referenced in InRich article

The company of metros at the bottom is interesting. My question is are HR and Richmond at the bottom because the the buyers could afford the loans or are they good because both metro areas lagged behind the ones at the top of the list by a one to two years? Then again, DC metro and Baltimore are near the bottom for major metro areas and they preceded HR and Richmond in terms of house price escalation. Also, many Texas and NC metro areas are much higher on the list despite their relatively low growth in home prices. I expected to see less affluent California (Riverside, Bakersfield) and Florida (Jax) cities on the list as well as the speculator heavens of Miami and Vegas; but Dallas, Fort Worth and Indianapolis, all of which have good income to home price ratios, are surprises.

I would be the reason it hasn't picked up here yet is because we were a bit late to the game. There are still some people buying, who knows why. Military people get transferred, and renting is so ewww... so their girls get them signing up to buy a house.

Give it some time, you will see a similiar crisis in Hampton Roads. We still have a good amount of construction going on. Once construction dies, along with the finance and other industries related to housing... watch out.

I do notice there is more and more commercial space availible all the time. But this hasn't quite turned into job losses yet.

Craigslist and other for-sale sites are sooo jammed with availible rents and real estate for sale, it's not funny. Remember when stuff sold in 1 day? And multiple bidders (assuming the realtors weren't just making it up to get a higher offer out of suckers)?

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But I totally agree that this whole thing is a huge problem right now across the country, especially with the whole Countrywide thing.

I forgot to add, the rise of rates on jumbo loans is also making more expensive houses even harder to sell, if they do at all.

Edited by adctvmonkey
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So I met up with some friends for some pizza at Cogans tonite, and we got to talking about jobs and what not. Two of my friends that were there both work for very large companies that derive much of their work from the US Govt.

Both friends recently travelled to other offices of the company they work for. One went on business for work, and the other went to check out a few alternative places to potentially relocate to.

Both of them noticed that the work environments of the same company, in other locations looked to be more fun. More laid back, less uptight, and more cool younger people. Boston, Washington DC, Portland and Seattle were all mentioned.

Just an interesting viewpoint to add to the "Why HR will never really make it" list!

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Interesting ad in today's VP for the HR Association for Commercial Real Estate's annual Excellence in Design Awards program. Hadn't noticed it before -- deadline is next Friday. Awards luncheon is 10/11.

Which led me to their website for a look at last year's winners (link). It costs $175 to submit a nomination. We can do it much cheaper here. Feel free to submit your candidates for awards in each of the following categories:

Best Interior

Best Office Building

Best R&D/Flex/Industrial

Best Commercial/Retail

Best Institutional/Public

Best Sustainable Design

Best Recreational/Entertainment Project

Best Renovation/Historic Rehab

Best Multi-Family

Best Master Planned Project

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  • 2 weeks later...

Got an email from local realty office with some updates on the local housing market.

Virginia Beach sales dropped YoY from Aug to Aug 16 percent. Avg DOM went frmo 46 days to 60 days.

Median price remained unchanged, avg sale price decreased 3% to $308K

Chesapeake residential home sales also decreased in August by 13 percent, with market times

increasing 36 percent. The median price declined 2 percent, while the average sales price

increased 2 percent.

Norfolk experienced a 21 percent decline in sales in August. Market times increased 31 percent.

The median price increased 10 percent to $215,000 and the average sales price increased 8

percent to $248,918.

Portsmouth home sales also decreased by 24 percent in August and market times increased 35

percent compared to August 2006. The median price decreased to $169,000 or 3 percent and the

average sales prices decreased 6 percent to $188,100.

Statistics compiled from Real Estate Information Network. They are deemed reliable, but not

guaranteed.

(This is from Butler Team)

Suffolk also experienced a decrease in sales of 15 percent compared to August 2006. Market times

increased, also, 74 days vs 55 days in August 2006.

The average sales price increased in Suffolk to $322,598 or 3 percent while the median

price remained relatively unchanged.

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Got an email from local realty office with some updates on the local housing market.

Virginia Beach sales dropped YoY from Aug to Aug 16 percent. Avg DOM went frmo 46 days to 60 days.

Median price remained unchanged, avg sale price decreased 3% to $308K

Chesapeake residential home sales also decreased in August by 13 percent, with market times

increasing 36 percent. The median price declined 2 percent, while the average sales price

increased 2 percent.

Norfolk experienced a 21 percent decline in sales in August. Market times increased 31 percent.

The median price increased 10 percent to $215,000 and the average sales price increased 8

percent to $248,918.

Portsmouth home sales also decreased by 24 percent in August and market times increased 35

percent compared to August 2006. The median price decreased to $169,000 or 3 percent and the

average sales prices decreased 6 percent to $188,100.

Statistics compiled from Real Estate Information Network. They are deemed reliable, but not

guaranteed.

(This is from Butler Team)

Suffolk also experienced a decrease in sales of 15 percent compared to August 2006. Market times

increased, also, 74 days vs 55 days in August 2006.

The average sales price increased in Suffolk to $322,598 or 3 percent while the median

price remained relatively unchanged.

Which confirms what I've been telling my friends for the past 2 years. P-town is the only place in HR you can afford to buy a house.

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So a topic that has come up before on the housing bubble blogs that I read is the issue that with the speculative mania of the housing bubble, sales for a number of years to come have been immediately had. People jumped in "before they were priced out forever (a fallacy for most)," and bought. So in the coming years, there will be a drop off of sales and construction, as all the profits were had during the mania.

I know that when I drive out to where I grew up, the woods have been replaced with huge McMansions. I took photos in the neighborhood, and I was able to get 6 and 7 forsale signs in a single shot. These homes seem to run from $700K+. Not to be outdone, there is another neighborhood down the street full of $700K+ homes, on top of the other neighborhood that has a mix ranging from townhomes (high $300K) up to multi-million dollar places.

There is DEFINITLY a huge glut of very expensive homes. Eventually it will crush the lower priced houses. There was more pressure on the $200K-$300K "starter" homes due to the issue that more people were competing.

Hampton Roads was late to the bubble thing, and is going to be a bit later to the collapse. Media in Tampa is now actually, really, for real, printing 25% declines in values expected.

Also, as costs of living collapse in areas like Tampa, San Diego, Boston, and other cities... what is the liklihood that younger people are going to stick around in Hampton Roads? It's almost like a huge whiney senior citizens home...

I *SERIOUSLY* think there might be a population outflow. If you use the uhaul metric and compare prices coming to and leaving from Norfolk, coming seems cheaper than leaving, which may indicate the flow of trucks.

It's not our local leaders fault. But expensive housing with mediocre jobs isn't going to keep people.

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