Hampton Roads Housing/Real estate/and Economy

[Telmnstr]

I'm soon to be in the market to buy a house. Not a bad time to actually buy one but at the same time I have to first sell mine and wonder how long this may take. I've noticed a lot of homes are just sitting there for months on end.

Price it right and it will sell.

[Telmnstr]

Word II the Housin' Bubble!@#!@ #

The good news is inventory in the Homicide Roads is still high. Tons and tons of high end inventory. And tons of rental properties coming on the market.

Some of the condo buildings have rules that only a percentage can be rented out. This helps keep icky renters out, and also will help to drive EVEN MORE houses into foreclosure! Brilliant. What happens to a condo association that collects fees when the place is only half occupied? All the monthly charges go up for the other owners.

So there isn't really much new to report. Inventory remains high, I'm sure there are people buying... (paying too much). Some knifecatchers are thinking they are getting good deals, they aren't. There are some insane scary numbers I've seen where people are taking the number of properties foreclosed and in default and running them against how many are listed, and it appears banks are sitting on a huge amount of houses that they aren't listing for sale yet. Perhaps hoping for gov't bailouts of "homeowners" (which aren't, they are bailouts for banks).

Hopefully there WON'T be bailouts, because the best thing for the people is to loose their overpriced house, then move out, and re-buy at a price in line with incomes. Subsidizing poor purchases by people who can't afford them isn't really a good move. But never underestimate the stupidity of politicians.

Someone started a neat petition site called www.angryrenter.com ... the comments (at least when it was less than 5,000 signatures) were very intelligent. Good stuff.

The odd news is while the local geek group has grown, I'm seeing a lot of locals talking about leaving. While I'm happy they will be able to find better area to live and better opportunities, I will miss some of these guys if they leave. Some of the top talent in the region. The main thing seems to be job dissatisfaction.

I got some email from some sync757 group. They had this huge list of their mission, which includes retaining and attracting talent and businesses to Hampton Roads. I emailed the lady back, and of course the responses didn't really address my point. No answers or hint of any real solutions. I can understand, since the real solutions just aren't going to happen.

[Telmnstr]

From Bloomberg:

"Foreclosure filings in 10 towns and cities within 10 miles of military facilities, including Norfolk, Virginia, home of the Navy's largest base, rose by an average 217 percent from January through April from a year earlier. Nationally, the rate was 59 percent in the same period, according to RealtyTrac, which tallies bank seizures, auctions and default notices."

Full Article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

[hoobo]

From Bloomberg:

"Foreclosure filings in 10 towns and cities within 10 miles of military facilities, including Norfolk, Virginia, home of the Navy's largest base, rose by an average 217 percent from January through April from a year earlier. Nationally, the rate was 59 percent in the same period, according to RealtyTrac, which tallies bank seizures, auctions and default notices."

Full Article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Nice spin. HR's increase was 155%, which BTW, was stated in the article. I guess 217% is much more eye-popping. And based on the map from the ReatlyTrac report that Bloomberg cites, HR looks to be at around 1 foreclosure in 1500 households which is better than NoVa, Raleigh, Charlotte, and states like Florida and California. I'm sorry that the facts don't support the spin. Good luck on your 50%+ price drop you're looking for. BTW, right now, with low interest rates and a home prices that have fallen to within 5% of the trough, is a good time to buy. Just wait until the Fed raises rates to reduce inflationary pressures.

[wrldcoupe4]

This news appeared to be good for both Hampton Roads and Richmond:

State Jobless Rate Falls for First Time in Months

In the greater Richmond region, unemployment dropped to 3.5 percent from 4 percent. It ranked seventh in the nation among metropolitan areas with a million or more residents, tied with the Tidewater area.

[scm]

Good luck on your 50%+ price drop you're looking for. BTW, right now, with low interest rates and a home prices that have fallen to within 5% of the trough, is a good time to buy. Just wait until the Fed raises rates to reduce inflationary pressures.

Well, a little perspective from the old guy. I've seen two of these housing "crisises" in my lifetime -- SoCal mid 80s and Austin late 80s -- both were caused by large losses of wage earners -- SoCal's when the aerospace industry shrunk and Austin's when the building boom ended with the S&L crisis. It is a sobering realization when you know that you will have to take money to closing. But there is nothing of the type going on here -- there are no job losses, and there never will be on a scale big enough to cause a 50% drop in prices.

The reality is, that while there was some speculative building and some "flipping" expectation buying, not nearly enough on a scale to drive down prices. Homeowners, especially SFR owners, don't act like other commodity buyers in a down turn. They sit on their property as long as they can make the payment, or don't have to cash out for a move. The subprime market will affect that -- to a limited extent, and in certain neighborhoods and price points. No effect at all in SFR neighborhoods near the water, as those sellers will just wait it out. That's why markets go flat or have small downturns, not big drops.

Wait it out is an interesting strategy -- our Cali TH, which we bought for $89K in '79 (after selling it's predecessor for $65.9K from a '76 purchase price of $39K) got to $125K by '84 and stayed there for about four years. Just checked Zillow -- FMV is now $450K. Same thing on the Austin house -- was $30K upside down once around '88. Now has about $100K in equity. Time is the friend of the SFR owner.

[hoobo]

Don't tell me that. Tell telmnstr/ethan. I'm in the process of purchasing a place here in SoCal. Prices have come down to the point that they're in line with where they should be considering historical growth rates. They'll drop further because of foreclosures, but only 5% or so. And given the risk of rising interest rates, I'm not going to wait another year hoping for lower prices. I haven't looked at HR, but I know out here you can get a decent 1 bed condo in Long Beach or Burbank with low HOAs for under $2000 a month including tax and insurance. Similar rentals in those areas go for between $1200 and $1600 depending on whether it's private rentals or professionally managed. If you discount the PITI on a condo for interest and property tax deductions on state and fed taxes, then it's roughly in line with rentals. That to me makes it a good time to buy. Expecting a huge drop is just plain greedy and unrealistic.

And scm, you're dead on with the unemployment aspect. This home price drop is fueled by bad loans and historically low interest rates not unemployment. Even in this recession, which is still subject to debate, unemployment hasn't hit, though it usually trails a downturn, and some places like HR are even seeing a drop in unemployment. And as you said, if there is a drop, best thing to do if you can is to ride it out.

[urbanvb]

Good luck on the condo purchase, hoobo. I have put a contract on a house myself and am waiting for my condo to sell. I priced my unit aggressively so I can buy this house but even then I have only had 3 lookers in about 5 weeks. A great time to buy but a bad time to sell in HR. Anyone looking for a condo near TC let me know!

Edited May 29, 2008 by urbanvb

[hoobo]

Good luck to you too.

[scm]

Don't tell me that. Tell telmnstr/ethan. I'm in the process of purchasing a place here in SoCal. Prices have come down to the point that they're in line with where they should be considering historical growth rates.

I'm agreeing with you, brother. Preach on!

You are taking exactly the right step -- first, can you afford it? Based on your after tax cost compared to renting, yes -- cash flow impacts are about equal. Second, do you like it? Will you enjoy living there? Third, can you qualify for the financing? After that, nothing else matters -- especially not how much money you will make. We are talking about your home here, not your 401K! The only way the appreciation ever matters is if you move out, convert it to investment, and let time be your friend. As long as you live in it, the equity is meaningless.

The market timing issue? I heard recently that over the last six years, if you had been out of the market on six days, you would have missed 30% of the run-up in the Dow over that period. The lesson is, that you can't time it to a nat's behind. Get in when it makes sense, and stay in.

[Telmnstr]

Nice spin. HR's increase was 155%, which BTW, was stated in the article. I guess 217% is much more eye-popping. And based on the map from the ReatlyTrac report that Bloomberg cites, HR looks to be at around 1 foreclosure in 1500 households which is better than NoVa, Raleigh, Charlotte, and states like Florida and California. I'm sorry that the facts don't support the spin. Good luck on your 50%+ price drop you're looking for. BTW, right now, with low interest rates and a home prices that have fallen to within 5% of the trough, is a good time to buy. Just wait until the Fed raises rates to reduce inflationary pressures.

But... higher interest rates would be good!?

Prices would have to come down if homes needed to be sold.

A lower purchase price means:

- Higher write-off on interest for taxes

- Quicker time to purchase paying cash (lower price)

- More earnings on investments / savings

I don't know why low interest rate / high price is desirable.

A HUGE issue right now is banks aren't moving on foreclosures. There are people in the US who haven't paid their mortgage in over a year and banks haven't moved on it. Either they don't have the manpower, or perhaps they are hoping for a market rebound.

[Telmnstr]

Well, a little perspective from the old guy. I've seen two of these housing "crisises" in my lifetime -- SoCal mid 80s and Austin late 80s -- both were caused by large losses of wage earners -- SoCal's when the aerospace industry shrunk and Austin's when the building boom ended with the S&L crisis. It is a sobering realization when you know that you will have to take money to closing. But there is nothing of the type going on here -- there are no job losses, and there never will be on a scale big enough to cause a 50% drop in prices.

The big difference this time is that many of the people never actually made enough money in the first place to buy the homes. Come on, look at Hampton Roads. Look at what people were buying in 2001 and 2003, then look at now. All of a sudden everyone is buying $300K-$400K homes like it ain't no thing. The enabler of the mania was sloppy/loose lending. With the mantra that real estate only goes up, and it goes up at 10% or 20% a year, people were willing to take on loans that they can't pay.

And I myself have the threat of possibly loosing my job over the next few months. And I've already seen some friends go. I'll admit employment is strong, but I'm not sure if I will be able to find the same kind of money again. People are telling me they are seeing cutbacks, and pullbacks.

I don't know how people on the bottom are making it with the increases in food & energy costs.

The reality is, that while there was some speculative building and some "flipping" expectation buying, not nearly enough on a scale to drive down prices. Homeowners, especially SFR owners, don't act like other commodity buyers in a down turn. They sit on their property as long as they can make the payment, or don't have to cash out for a move. The subprime market will affect that -- to a limited extent, and in certain neighborhoods and price points. No effect at all in SFR neighborhoods near the water, as those sellers will just wait it out. That's why markets go flat or have small downturns, not big drops.

Actually some of them don't even have to pay, and continue to sit.

A few new things this time... first, it's highly likely that people with good credit also "invested" in their future by over buying. There is a good chance we will see problems with both the alt-a and prime loans, and not just because people like moody's ar e lying about the ratings.

A friend's relative has a house for sale in VaBeach. They built their new one without selling the first one (I think they can afford it). On the water, in the 1.2 to 1.4mil category. There is something like 150 other homes for sale, competing against it. ***150*** !??! How long is it going to take to clear that inventory? Especially considering the #1 source of money and wealth over the past 5 years has been... real estate!? It's not like we make much in the country any more.

Wait it out is an interesting strategy -- our Cali TH, which we bought for $89K in '79 (after selling it's predecessor for $65.9K from a '76 purchase price of $39K) got to $125K by '84 and stayed there for about four years. Just checked Zillow -- FMV is now $450K. Same thing on the Austin house -- was $30K upside down once around '88. Now has about $100K in equity. Time is the friend of the SFR owner.

Oh I know real estate generally tracks inflation over the long run, but of course there are holding costs (upkeep). But things are so much different this time around. It's kind of like a S&L Scandal, only it's been real estate. Pilot said that salaries adjusted for inflation have slid downwards just a tad bit in Hampton Roads. But home prices doubled in just a few short years. There is no logic. Population hasn't gone up that much. The economy hasn't done that well, it's all been masked by the malinvestment & absolute mania over real estate. During the real estate boom more engineering and science jobs were offshored. Real estate hid the problems. People were partying, but not thinking about the hangover (the debt).

I was talking pictures like a year ago to submit to the housing bubble blog, and I was able to find neighborhoods where the homes were all $700K+, and was able to get shots with like 8 forsale signs in a single shot.

Right now stuff is most likely moving on the low end, but I'd imagine the high end is all plugged up. Yes I know people still buy... dudes cave for their women, and people don't research it.

I look at it from the perspective of... What are the high wage earners in the area realistically able to afford? And that inventory that they can afford, where does it rank against the rest of the housing in the market?

And that's without thinking about the boomers retiring. You know, all the people that have 3000 sqft homes but only 2 people living in them.

It's one thing to have speculative manias over beanie babies, or playstation 3's before Christmas. Cabbage patch dolls, Elmo dolls or dutch tulips. But it's annoying to have it with housing.

You want to see a crazy statistic? Look up the # of empty housing units in the USA. I think it's 18 million.

[hoobo]

But... higher interest rates would be good!?

Prices would have to come down if homes needed to be sold.

A lower purchase price means:

- Higher write-off on interest for taxes

- Quicker time to purchase paying cash (lower price)

- More earnings on investments / savings

I don't know why low interest rate / high price is desirable.

A HUGE issue right now is banks aren't moving on foreclosures. There are people in the US who haven't paid their mortgage in over a year and banks haven't moved on it. Either they don't have the manpower, or perhaps they are hoping for a market rebound.

Higher interest rates are bad if you want to buy. Interest rates aren't going to go down anytime soon. They'll likely go up. I was being sarcastic when I said you should wait for them to go up. If you wait for home prices to fall a bit more but rates increase in the meantime, then what difference does it make. Yes you get a higher deduction but you're still paying 75% more of the difference. (e.g. $1600/mo vs $1500/mo means you're spending an extra $75/mo after tax savings, so where's the benefit?) All I know is that there are plenty of good deals out there. If you start comparing home prices to rental prices, you'll find that mortgages after figuring in tax savings are coming into line with prices for comparable rental units. That means time to buy.

How do you figure that I'm advocating high prices? I'm the last person to say buy when it's hot. You buy when it's undervalued. Everyone and their mother kept telling me to buy over the last couple years. I said no. This market makes no sense and at some point it will revalue either by moving sideways for several years or by dropping 15%. It's dropped even further than 15% which means I'm trying to buy sooner than I had expected.

But to ask for a 50% drop is nuts. Assessments in VB have risen about 215% over the past 6 years. To ask for a 50% drop in home values means that you'd average a 1% annual increase in home values, for an increase of 108% over 6 years. To get to a more realistic 6% annual increase would require a 30 - 35% drop in prices. That's more sensible. Prices have dropped between 20 - 30% here in L.A. However, in HR, they're still inflated due to low unemployment and a late start in the housing madness. Then again, I'm not even sure if that foreclosure hammer will hit HR since right now, only 1 in 1500 homes is in foreclosure which is a lower figure than Raleigh, Charlotte, and Jax which entered the boom at about the same time as HR.

What confuses me is that you rail against the greed of mortgage firms and ignorance of over-leverged home buyers, yet you want prices to collapse and even expect them to drop by 50% with no justification.

edit: The increase in home values is 115% not 215%. If the baseline is set at 100, then today's assessed value would be 215. A 1% annual increase would result in an 8% increase over 6 years. Sorry for the confusion on the percentages.

Edited May 30, 2008 by hoobo

[hoobo]

I'm agreeing with you, brother. Preach on!

You are taking exactly the right step -- first, can you afford it? Based on your after tax cost compared to renting, yes -- cash flow impacts are about equal. Second, do you like it? Will you enjoy living there? Third, can you qualify for the financing? After that, nothing else matters -- especially not how much money you will make. We are talking about your home here, not your 401K! The only way the appreciation ever matters is if you move out, convert it to investment, and let time be your friend. As long as you live in it, the equity is meaningless.

The market timing issue? I heard recently that over the last six years, if you had been out of the market on six days, you would have missed 30% of the run-up in the Dow over that period. The lesson is, that you can't time it to a nat's behind. Get in when it makes sense, and stay in.

Worlds colliding. We agree again. I'm definitely with you on this. Best part about buying at or near current rent levels is that as rents go up, your mortgage payment stays the same assuming you got a fixed rate loan.

[Telmnstr]

Higher interest rates are bad if you want to buy. If you wait for home prices to fall a bit more but rates increase in the meantime, then what difference does it make. Yes you get a higher deduction but you're still paying 75% more of the difference. (e.g. $1600/mo vs $1500/mo means you're spending an extra $75/mo after tax savings, so where's the benefit?) All I know is that there are plenty of good deals out there. If you start comparing home prices to rental prices, you'll find that mortgages after figuring in tax savings are coming into line with prices for comparable rental units. That means time to buy.

If I take my rent and X 120 I get $141,000

The condo 2 doors down was on the market for $399,000 . The condo has no assigned parking space, and it has no view. It had a lower ceiling which wouldn't be ideal for my projection setup.

There is still plenty of room for fall, is my point.

But to ask for a 50% drop is nuts. Assessments in VB have risen about 215% over the past 6 years. To ask for a 50% drop in home values means that you'd average a 1% annual increase in home values, for an increase of 108% over 6 years. To get to a more realistic 6% annual increase would require a 30 - 35% drop in prices. That's more sensible. Prices have dropped between 20 - 30% here in L.A. However, in HR, they're still inflated due to low unemployment and a late start in the housing madness. Then again, I'm not even sure if that foreclosure hammer will hit HR since right now, only 1 in 1500 homes is in foreclosure which is a lower figure than Raleigh, Charlotte, and Jax which entered the boom at about the same time as HR.

The jobs here don't pay that much. The 50% percentile for asking prices in HR is $310,000. For proper affordability that would be $80K/year, which is way above the median household income when you look at all 7 cities. I'm not saying that I don't do well, I look at it from the perspective of the average people versus average prices.

What confuses me is that you rail against the greed of mortgage firms and ignorance of over-leverged home buyers, yet you want prices to collapse and even expect them to drop by 50% with no justification.

The justification is that the past few years have been a mania, fueled by speculation (TLC Property Ladder, Flip this house), and not based upon fundamentals. People have this new expectation that their homes are going to fund their retirement. At the same time the older people generally expect the young people to work for them for peanuts.

One of my coworkers had this feeling, I think at the time his home was valued at $730,000, even though he had purchased it for ~$400,000. He unfortunately randomly died.

I look at the housing thing as a huge misallocation of money. America needs companies that make real products to sell to other people. As a country we can not survive reselling each other poorly constructed shacks at ever escalating debt levels.

This isn't to even get into the costs of heating and cooling all these large McMansions, that are occupied by two people.

The only enabler of the high prices was the lending, often times to people who are unworthy. When you lend 100% combined loan to value to some person that normally couldn't qualify, they have no foot in the game and are likely to make unwise decisions. If you're putting 20% of money you saved down then you will care more about what you get for the value. With no foot in the game, people can bid up prices, outbidding those with a real down payment. This drove the market up. Now these people are loosing their homes, or walking away from investments gone bad -- because the get rich quick aspect failed.

From a Reuters article:

Still, the total number of vacant U.S. properties hit 18.6 million, which was a record, a Census official said.

That is alot of empty houses! And not to mention the boomer generation that is going to be looking to downsize (cashing out) since all the kids are gone.

Psst. This is likely the real reason why the gov't doesn't care about illegal immigrants.

Edited May 30, 2008 by Telmnstr

[hoobo]

edit: The increase in home values is 115% not 215%. If the baseline is set at 100, then today's assessed value would be 215. A 1% annual increase would result in an 8% increase over 6 years. Sorry for the confusion on the percentages.

The run-up in home prices is a global phenomenon not just a U.S. one. And yes, the way loans were and to some degree, still are done is wrong. You should have to verify income if employed, or show business financials if self-employed. If you put a downpayment under 10% you should be able to prove that you have reserve funds. And your credit score should be good or excellent. We can agree there.

We also agree that the run-up in home prices was crazy. What we don't agree on is how much they should come down. I'd draw a projected line from the historical trend to today. Looking at the run-up in prices, a 30% drop would bring prices in line with where they should be if they increased according to the historic trend line.

Just because there are 18 million homes vacant doesn't mean that home prices have to fall everywhere. A vacant house in Surry should have little to no effect on a vacant home in Chick's Beach. A lot of these vacant homes are in outlying suburbs and dying rural and mill towns. People fled to the outlying suburbs when city prices got to high. Now as city prices return to the historic trend line, people can afford to move closer to work. Thus, outlying suburbs will see an exodus and collapsing markets. That's what is happening in San Bernardino and Riverside counties out here. L.A. and Orange counties have not had the price drop that those outlying counties have seen.

[Telmnstr]

The run-up in home prices is a global phenomenon not just a U.S. one. And yes, the way loans were and to some degree, still are done is wrong. You should have to verify income if employed, or show business financials if self-employed. If you put a downpayment under 10% you should be able to prove that you have reserve funds. And your credit score should be good or excellent. We can agree there.

The global housing bubble will collapse globally. Yes, there are some places such as New Zealand where the gov't steps in to help assist all buyers so that they can buy a house. In the end all it does is interfere with the market, the prices would drop if the gov't didn't subsidize, and the the gov't wouldn't need to subsidize if the prices dropped.

Now that the investors are getting burned, there will be an over-contraction of credit available.

We also agree that the run-up in home prices was crazy. What we don't agree on is how much they should come down. I'd draw a projected line from the historical trend to today. Looking at the run-up in prices, a 30% drop would bring prices in line with where they should be if they increased according to the historic trend line.

How can you have 100%+ appreciation in home prices over 5 years in Hampton Roads, with no rise in income (when adjusted for inflation)? If anything, the cost of construction has gotten cheaper for the builders by use of illegal workforce. Yes the price of property has gone up, but major homebuilders like KB Homes have written off tens or hundreds of millions in land purchase contract options. So much of the land will return to market.

Current MLS via Pilot Online

Chesapeake, 18 homes $1mil+

Chesapeake, 67 homes $700K-$1mil

Chesapeake, search exceeds 250 matches, $500K to $700K

Virginia Beach, search exceeds 250 matches, $1mil+

Virginia Beach, search exceeds 250 matches, $500K to $700K

Who's going to buy all this? Where they going to work locally? Maybe I'm doing something wrong... but I seem to think I do pretty well, and know I would never go after a place over $200K, I expect to GET something for money I put down.

And everywhere in the USA it's like this. There are so many homes up for sale it's not funny. I'm seeing people who are actually able to get statistics on neighborhoods, and incomplete wooden frames are going into foreclosure. Neighborhoods with 70 homes have 52 of them on the market, all priced $700K+.

Perhaps the idea is to devalue the dollar so far that wages somehow move up to double, but I don't see this happening. I think the people at the top would just take the extra money.

Just because there are 18 million homes vacant doesn't mean that home prices have to fall everywhere. A vacant house in Surry should have little to no effect on a vacant home in Chick's Beach. A lot of these vacant homes are in outlying suburbs and dying rural and mill towns. People fled to the outlying suburbs when city prices got to high. Now as city prices return to the historic trend line, people can afford to move closer to work. Thus, outlying suburbs will see an exodus and collapsing markets. That's what is happening in San Bernardino and Riverside counties out here. L.A. and Orange counties have not had the price drop that those outlying counties have seen.

True, many are going to be vacation homes also. But many are new condos. How do you think the Barr building is selling? I'm probably not the average American, but when I buy stuff I look for value. What am I getting for my money, why is it priced like it is.

I think in the end, those that own homes have a reason to believe that prices won't drop, while those that dig into this stuff see that prices are going to fall hard.

[Telmnstr]

So we are finally starting to see some layoffs. Amerigroup, the plywood place... I've heard about hiring freezes at a very large company that just built a tall new building in downtown Norfolk. The older portion of that company owned by Cox is moving to Atlanta.

So how bad do you think it will get? There is trillions of dollars of "ill gotten" value in housing that is going to be wiped out. This is going to leave lots of "homeowners" underwater. This will have a reverse of the psychological wealth effect, that has led to people spending lots of money.

David Nygard (however you spell it) jewlers just built out a nice new place in the building next to the Kirn Memorial Library. They were advertising liquidations of two other locations, but randomly the downtown Norfolk location emptied out a few days ago. It's gone.

Jewelery is one of those items that people are likely to cut back on. I bet a bunch of it was funded by "freeing equity" (which is really taking on debt) from homes.

Thoughts?

Homearama is being cut in half this year. Half the builders say they can't afford to participate or something.

[cpeakesqr]

Confirming what we already knew, Forbes gives Hampton Roads a low rank in its list of Best Cities for Young Professionals. But hey, at least we made the list.

[vdogg]

Confirming what we already knew, Forbes gives Hampton Roads a low rank in its list of Best Cities for Young Professionals. But hey, at least we made the list.

Considering we beat Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Vegas of all places I think we did pretty damn good in this one.

32. Virginia Beach-Norfolk, Va.

Virginia Beach-Norfolk tied with Providence, R.I., for last in its ability to attract and hold graduates from our class of 1998 index. Still, its concentration of top companies ranked in the top half, nationally, and cost of living was on par with salaries.

[Telmnstr]

Hmm they ran a similar article a few years ago with similar results.

I saw today that Virginia has moved from ~25th in house foreclosures to 11th of all the states. From those stats it's really picking up fast. We'll be in the top 10 in no time.

[scottc80]

Hmm they ran a similar article a few years ago with similar results.

I saw today that Virginia has moved from ~25th in house foreclosures to 11th of all the states. From those stats it's really picking up fast. We'll be in the top 10 in no time.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25290355/

I am not too worried about it. If you look at the above link, it gives a great visual of areas of the country with high foreclosure rates. As you will see, the bulk of the increase has been in NOVA, which I think most people expected. The foreclosure rate for HR and Richmond is still very low in comparison with other areas around the country. Even Charlotte has more color to it than here. We complain, but it is still so much better here than most parts of the country. I like this map because it gives a true visual, and allows you to see the progression by year. Very interesting...

[scottc80]

Considering we beat Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Vegas of all places I think we did pretty damn good in this one.

32. Virginia Beach-Norfolk, Va.

Virginia Beach-Norfolk tied with Providence, R.I., for last in its ability to attract and hold graduates from our class of 1998 index. Still, its concentration of top companies ranked in the top half, nationally, and cost of living was on par with salaries.

Do you think this would be different if they considered 2005 graduates? I know we will still have another 7 years for that statistic. I moved here for college, moved to Raleigh after graduating (and very surprised that they retain ANYONE after college---I did not like it there at all) then moved back here, and am VERY glad I did move back here. Of those I graduated with in 2005, most of my friends still live in this area. Most of us are not from this area originally. It seems to me that with all of the improvements HR has seen in the last few years, there is a lot more to keep talent in the local area. I also saw an article on Tuesday (I cannot remember where I saw the article) that was speaking of the HR area having the strongest small to medium sized companies in the country (an improvement for us over previous years, and signaling hopefully more growth in the coming years). I am going to try to find that article again, as I do not remember the specifics of the content.

Based on what I know of this area in 1998 and what I have heard from people who lived here at that time, it doesn't surprise me that many of them would not have stayed. I truly believe this area has come a very long way. I have seen it come a long way since I moved here in 2002.

Edited July 25, 2008 by scottc80

[Telmnstr]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25290355/

I am not too worried about it. If you look at the above link, it gives a great visual of areas of the country with high foreclosure rates. As you will see, the bulk of the increase has been in NOVA, which I think most people expected. The foreclosure rate for HR and Richmond is still very low in comparison with other areas around the country. Even Charlotte has more color to it than here. We complain, but it is still so much better here than most parts of the country. I like this map because it gives a true visual, and allows you to see the progression by year. Very interesting...

Errr it's a time thing. People in Hampton Roads were a bit late to the game. Our mania kicked off a bit later, so most likely the troublesome mortgages with the teaser reset dates will hit later. I dunno, one can say that the military and other welfare gigs will hold up the region... but uh, if I can make $40K+ more in DC, and houses are cheaper, WTF would I stay in Hampton Roads?

The fundamentals of income versus home prices are far away from bring normal. Until then, banks will continue to collapse. Homes will continue to decline in value. Cities will continue to struggle with the loss of tax income. And nothing the gov't does to bail out people will work. Period.

When the median house is 2.5 times the median income, then things are right.

With energy costs skyrocketing, healthcare mad expensive... our country has quite a few problems coming.

Don't forget, with the housing downturn comes the loss of all job creation since 2001 or so.

[Telmnstr]

Do you think this would be different if they considered 2005 graduates? I know we will still have another 7 years for that statistic. I moved here for college, moved to Raleigh after graduating (and very surprised that they retain ANYONE after college---I did not like it there at all) then moved back here, and am VERY glad I did move back here. Of those I graduated with in 2005, most of my friends still live in this area. Most of us are not from this area originally. It seems to me that with all of the improvements HR has seen in the last few years, there is a lot more to keep talent in the local area. I also saw an article on Tuesday (I cannot remember where I saw the article) that was speaking of the HR area having the strongest small to medium sized companies in the country (an improvement for us over previous years, and signaling hopefully more growth in the coming years). I am going to try to find that article again, as I do not remember the specifics of the content.

Based on what I know of this area in 1998 and what I have heard from people who lived here at that time, it doesn't surprise me that many of them would not have stayed. I truly believe this area has come a very long way. I have seen it come a long way since I moved here in 2002.

What sector are you in?

Raleigh has Cisco, IBM, and others. Health industry (Duke medical) players. There are startups like LuLu, founded by the guy who started up RedHat. There is a club you can join if you're into tech where they have a whole shop of tools you get access to (3d printer, CNC equipment, etc). A good friend who relocated down there from Hampton Roads said he wouldn't move back. He said it seems like it is a bit of a click though with the startup scene.

If you're doing like, Gov't financing of rims, jewelery, furniture, computers and home electronics of E1 and up, Hampton Roads is probably better.

I remember that article, but can't figure it out. Perhaps it's due to the companies sucking on the gov't ? Still a decent environment for contractors and what not. We haven't seen too many of the small businesses go out of business yet, but I *think* times might be slowing down a bit. Like I said earlier, I've always felt HR is probably behind in the housing ordeal, and figure it will hit here late. I wouldn't be surprised to see condos in downtown Norfolk for $70K or less when this is really under way.

I'm still employed, I'm still doing fine, I have no real fuel bills, and I know the higher cost of electricity and energy already has me bummed. I've thought about cutting out all eating out in downtown Norfolk to save money. I haven't have much luck selling various odds and ends on craigslist. Seen a few deals, but nothing super stellar past some scuba equipment I picked up.

Time will tell man, it's not pretty. I'm wondering how Wachovia tower plays out if the bank fails.