Hampton Roads Housing/Real estate/and Economy

[urbanvb]

I usually look through the Home insert in Saturday's Pilot to look at the realty sales. Maybe it is because of the holidays but I have never seen so few. Every cities listings fit on 1-2 half pages. Amazing. Yes, it will be interesting to see what happens with property values and high end rentals as well.

[Telmnstr]

I usually look through the Home insert in Saturday's Pilot to look at the realty sales. Maybe it is because of the holidays but I have never seen so few. Every cities listings fit on 1-2 half pages. Amazing. Yes, it will be interesting to see what happens with property values and high end rentals as well.

I predict that the market is going to reach a new bottom... every month this year!

[vdogg]

I predict that the market is going to reach a new bottom... every month this year!

Always the ray of sunshine...

[Telmnstr]

Always the ray of sunshine...

Hey, haven't I been right so far?

It's all numbers! Everyone's general intention is to enrich themselves. If you don't know who the greater fool in a transaction is, it's probably you! So you have to look out for #1, and figure out who benefits from something. When some rich guy supports some community project, you know it's not because he cares about the community. It's because he or his friends somehow benefit from the project. When the church does something for the community, it's because the members were programmed as youngins that if you do these things now you will get reward later.

If I do some sort of nerd project and release it for free... it's not because I'm uber charitable, I'm hoping that somehow in the future it will come back to help me out.

Just human nature.

The housing thing was straight up epic greed. Once you look at it, and figure out who is making money where and how, it's pretty evident what was going on.

I just questioned it at first because housing prices were climbing at such high rates I thought perhaps everyone's salary was going up real fast and I didn't know about it. I was paid pretty low for what I was doing when I worked at NASA as a contractor, and knew this. So this is why I started looking into it, and then hopping jobs.

In the end, the buttholes have wrecked the country and there wasn't a thing I could do about it.

[vdogg]

Hey, haven't I been right so far?

Yes you were right, you actually hit the nail on the head so i'll give you that. In general, I took it all with a grain of salt. Try as I might, I couldn't stop my general optimism in life from getting in the way. I just didn't think things would get that bad, I was obviously wrong. At times you've seemed to take a particular glee in making such predictions though, and that is what I was joking about . Just out of curiosity, and I know i'll probably regret asking this, but when do you see things actually improving? Logic would dictate that we have to hit bottom someday would it not? At some point in time the banks will recover, they always do. One day the economy will expand again, it always does. Eventually prices will get low enough that people will start buying again, they always have. If it is your prediction that there will be no measurable recovery this year, then when do you see this occuring? I'm certain you don't think that this will last forever, so i'm just curious as to what your timeframe is.

[rusthebuss]

I say 20-25 years before we get back to our glory days. This has been in the making for over 20 years. I knew it was going to fall but i couldn't give in to Tel cause he was actually enjoying the fall of the market. We've actually been seeing problems since the federal reserve was created. And the housing crash isn't Bush's fault. He has done other things that have ticked me off such as Homeland security and Patriot act(which are taking my rights and freedom away). Now we have to deal with Obama taking away even more rights away from us such as our Guns!

[Telmnstr]

Yes you were right, you actually hit the nail on the head so i'll give you that. In general, I took it all with a grain of salt. Try as I might, I couldn't stop my general optimism in life from getting in the way. I just didn't think things would get that bad, I was obviously wrong. At times you've seemed to take a particular glee in making such predictions though, and that is what I was joking about . Just out of curiosity, and I know i'll probably regret asking this, but when do you see things actually improving? Logic would dictate that we have to hit bottom someday would it not? At some point in time the banks will recover, they always do. One day the economy will expand again, it always does. Eventually prices will get low enough that people will start buying again, they always have. If it is your prediction that there will be no measurable recovery this year, then when do you see this occuring? I'm certain you don't think that this will last forever, so i'm just curious as to what your timeframe is.

The stuff I've read that seems to make sense pretty much says when the market gets back to the fundamentals that it generally always is. When the median asking price of a home is 2.5 times to 3.0 times the median gross annual income. I don't know if that is considering a 20% down payment or not. In the future there is a large wave of boomers that will die off and leave a huge surplus of houses, in addition to the ones already built. Of course much of the inventory that was recently built was really shoddy, in an effort to cash in as much as possible (From what I've read and friends have told me, I haven't looked at houses and am not sure I could identify the bad workmanship).

The other issue is America.. we've kind of been sold out. Our leaders and corporations sent quite a bit of our good paying jobs overseas for short term gains (from wall street). We've trained lots of competition. We had a couple of Indian employees where I work, and recently they are moving home to India to start companies over there. What are Americans really good at?

The other HUGE issue is the fact that the stupid gov't keeps getting in the way. IF they would let home prices fall to 2.5 x the median income, then things could move on. But instead they try to interfere, which causes problems. Section 8 assistance causes low income housing to sit at that price point. Navy housing allowances cause rentals to sit at the prices that match it. Whatever the gov't assistance program, it causes the values to go up. When they offer mortgage interest tax deduction, people price that right into the market. When women joined the workforce, housing prices jumped up to take in all that money from the new workers (see, yaw'll women messed up not wanting to hang out at home ). The gov't interference breaks things in many cases, and only hurts the honest hard working normal person.

Another big issue is jobs. It isn't that common for young people to have a job very long. Corporations aren't liable to it's employees whatsoever, and employees aren't going to be liable back. Both are a commodity. So in some cases buying a house could be seen as a risk, that limits mobility to chase jobs.

I don't know when the bottom is. I think a Realtor will tell you it's next month all year long. It could be when everyone thinks real estate is the worst investment ever. Another thing is that recessions don't normally have the huge credit contractions that we are seeing AFAIK, depressions do.

But hey, the gov't can just employ us all!

Glee? Not really. I'm likely to get caught up in it. I will enjoy seeing some of the materialistic losers that have looked down on me for being a renter get theirs. And I will say it, I HATE renting. I HATE the slumlords in this town. They are unethical. So I hope they loose. I used to say I'd never leave Hampton Roads, but after working for a small company and seeing how rewarding it is, it will be difficult. A friend is back to work and going insane because he is paid to sit there all day doing nothing. He said he doesn't feel right. He doesn't understand it, him sitting there causes his gov't contractor employer to get paid. He is doing something. But I know how he feels, I hated those days too.

[Telmnstr]

From Yahoo:

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/artic...Vacancies-Spike

Rents Drop Nationwide as Vacancies Spike

by Prashant Gopal

Friday, January 23, 2009

Those are real cities. Norfolk is weak.

Have fun with overpriced luxury apartments.

[Telmnstr]

Nationally I guess CRE (Commercial buildings) are starting to go into foreclosure more. I see there is no shortage of spaces popping up on craigslist.

Wonder when we will start to see large foreclosures of commercial properties around Hampton Roads?

[mlsimons]

Hampton Roads employment has raised 1.5% this past year...According to the U.S. Dept of Labor we are 1 of only 7 metropolitans to report an increase.

I suspect we will see less foreclosures than people expect from hearing all the national hype.

[Telmnstr]

Hampton Roads employment has raised 1.5% this past year...According to the U.S. Dept of Labor we are 1 of only 7 metropolitans to report an increase.

I suspect we will see less foreclosures than people expect from hearing all the national hype.

Employment doesn't mean people can pay mortgages where the monthly nut jumps way up (teaser rates expire).

Home values will still drop.

Not enough $130K+ jobs to support the housing costs.

[Telmnstr]

Shock the monkey with FACTS. Tearin' up some Pilot Online posters with grace.

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/03/housing-bu...nts-are-booming

Truth hurts.

[mlsimons]

Employment doesn't mean people can pay mortgages where the monthly nut jumps way up (teaser rates expire).

Home values will still drop.

Not enough $130K+ jobs to support the housing costs.

Oh I know, yes housing prices will fall, hopefully. There's nothing wrong with the market correcting itself, and in this case the correction will be harsh. But we must remember that the military is propping HR up and employment will rise so long as the bases and ports keep growing.

Once the housing does reach bottom. As long as the creditors/banks are not melted we will see houses sell again. Fact of life. The average person moves every 7 years. In addition, the nation's population will have grown, and is expected to double by 2050. And these people will need to live somewhere. Its not that I'm so optimistic, but I can't help but associate the facts/demographics with the market. All of these people who can't sell/buy now are creating a greater need once the market allows them to sell/buy. They will be more anxious to finally do it once they are able to. And the students graduating, who are now renting; this demographic will be huge by the time the bust is over. They too will be anxious to buy, many of whom will be in the late 20's and married...really anxious to buy.

[Telmnstr]

Oh I know, yes housing prices will fall, hopefully. There's nothing wrong with the market correcting itself, and in this case the correction will be harsh. But we must remember that the military is propping HR up and employment will rise so long as the bases and ports keep growing.

Once the housing does reach bottom. As long as the creditors/banks are not melted we will see houses sell again. Fact of life. The average person moves every 7 years. In addition, the nation's population will have grown, and is expected to double by 2050. And these people will need to live somewhere. Its not that I'm so optimistic, but I can't help but associate the facts/demographics with the market. All of these people who can't sell/buy now are creating a greater need once the market allows them to sell/buy. They will be more anxious to finally do it once they are able to. And the students graduating, who are now renting; this demographic will be huge by the time the bust is over. They too will be anxious to buy, many of whom will be in the late 20's and married...really anxious to buy.

True. But you have to look at a few other factors. The USA has been financed with debt for a number of years now. At some point, eventually, that will have to be addressed. The correction is going to be harsh. It's easy to think that we are #1, and when it comes to military we are. But in terms of science and technology we are loosing.

College degree / student doesn't mean someone is inventive. It doesn't mean they are going to create new products or services.

The wealthy of our country sold us out.

Also, there is 18 million empty homes. And a bunch of people are going to die. A huge wave of people. Which will leave (I believe) a temporary downturn.

And who even wants to guess when population doubles how many of those people will be welfare children, looking to get fed off of the middle income wage earners. Middle class might not be able to feed all the hungry welfare babies.

[urbanvb]

Interesting graph of foreclosures in HR. I hope the overall downward trend continues.

link

Edited March 19, 2009 by urbanvb

[rusthebuss]

True. But you have to look at a few other factors. The USA has been financed with debt for a number of years now.

It's been financed with debt ever since the creation of the federal reserve

[Telmnstr]

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/mo...2009/index.html

Money magazine

[urbanvb]

Home prices to keep falling, Moody's says

A national economic research firm has predicted that existing-home prices in Hampton Roads will drop nearly 18 percent between now and the second quarter of 2010.

Moody's Economy.com pinpointed the middle part of next year as the bottom for the local housing market, forecasting the median price will fall to $173,420 from $210,886.

This is quite a jump! It's gonna be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Telmnstr]

I'd call that optimistic.

[varider]

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/04/canon-unve...00-jobs-planned

Canon Virginia Inc. today will show off a new $640 million cartridge-manufacturing facility in Newport News that will bring 1,000 jobs to the region by 2013.

Canon plans a 4 p.m. ribbon-cutting ceremony at the plant in Oyster Point. Scheduled guests include Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and national Canon executives.

The 700,000-square-foot building is finished but will not start operations until the end of the year or early 2010, Rhonda Bunn, a spokeswoman for Canon Virginia, said Thursday. Equipment will be installed from May to October and then tested for several weeks, she said.

Canon, she said, promised to hire 1,000 workers for the facility by 2013. It already has hired 250. Canon has been in Newport News for 23 years and employed about 1,500 people before the expansion.

[Telmnstr]

Cool! Any idea what the average salary will be?

[Telmnstr]

Virginia Beach ranks #11 in highest credit card debt in the county. Fakers, not makers!

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/05/region-ran...redit-card-debt

Of course all my comments on there are moderated and they won't approve them till the story is old. Heh.

[varider]

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/06/hampton-ro...-vacancies-rise

Apartment vacancies in Hampton Roads rose to their highest point in more than a decade during the past six months and rents continued to fall, according to a report released Monday.

The vacancy rate was 7.3 percent for the six-month period that ended in April, according to Real Data, a Charlotte, N.C.-based apartment research firm.

Vacancy rates during the past six months were highest in Hampton and Newport News. Rates were the lowest in Norfolk at 6 percent and Chesapeake at 5.5 percent.

Good to see Norfolk is still doing well, I do think it might be time to stop building apartments for now. We need to keep the demand high so developers will be enticed to build.. 6 percent apartment vacancy and 5 percent office vacancy is surely not bad. I'm sure it's higher than those cities like Miami and Atlanta who built all those skyscrapers just so they could sit half filled.

[Telmnstr]

Building I'm in is rumored to be trying to raise rents or something. Go figure.

We'll see how the job holds out, and what the replacement is. From 35 people to 9, at least they tried and it was actually an exciting place to work.

The rents are almost at the level of class A office space, when you calculate out the costs.

Hmm wouldn't it be funny to try starting the idea of rent control? Man the slumlords would freak out.

I think the reason for the apartments is the presumption that they can get so much money from the local people. But I don't think people really have that kind of money to spend on rents.

Edited June 9, 2009 by Telmnstr

[cpeakesqr]

Building I'm in is rumored to be trying to raise rents or something. Go figure.

We'll see how the job holds out, and what the replacement is. From 35 people to 9, at least they tried and it was actually an exciting place to work.

The rents are almost at the level of class A office space, when you calculate out the costs.

Hmm wouldn't it be funny to try starting the idea of rent control? Man the slumlords would freak out.

I think the reason for the apartments is the presumption that they can get so much money from the local people. But I don't think people really have that kind of money to spend on rents.

make some flyers about a rent control meeting, and start some rumors...