Which of these counties will be the first to reach

[cosmoboy]

Are you looking at city, county or MSA figures?

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county figures

[cheeriokid61]

By the way, the chamber of commerce has never been a reliable source. They get the numbers as high as possible to make their city looks as good as they can.

[ironchapman]

The next one will be in Florida.........

As far as Fulton, it will probably break up anyway. Milton County will probably be brought up really soon. Yet another county to add to Georgia 159

others. 

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Not to say that our legislature might not try to change it, but there is a clause in our state Constitution that prohibits more than 159 counties. The last thing our state needs is a new county.

[Spartan]

It would require a legislative act to change that limit to 160. There would have to be alot of support to get it accomplished.

[Blazer85]

I agree that as far as Jefferson Co., AL goes, it wont reach 1 million for a while probably. And some good points were made about I-22 and the Northern Beltline. Those two projects will really cause an explosion on the northern half of the county (actually already happening). But right now, the majority of the Jefferson County, AL population is centered around the southern half of the county.

To put in perspective... the largest southern suburb of BHM that's within Jefferson County is Hoover (pop. 67,000). In turn, the largest northern suburb of BHM within Jefferson County is Gardendale (pop. 13,000). There is a LOT of open land in the north and northwestern parts of Jefferson County. Once that area is more readily accessable via I-22 and the Northern beltline, the area will see an explosion similar to what the area south of BHM has seen. I mean we're just talking about a race in this poll and Jefferson County may (and likely wont) beat some of these other counties to the 1million mark, but it will happen.

So much construction going on right now in Gardendale that the money collected each month in building permits sets a new record with each passing month. Also, a temporary moratorium on new construction had to be put in place so the city could prevent what happened in Hoover from happening in Gardendale. Gardendale had about a 25% growth rate through the 1990s, but now it's probably closer to 40%.

[RiversideGator]

The question is, can those counties depend on that growth rate when they reach critical mass and run out of readily developable land inside county borders. I know Charlotte and Jacksonville has a lot of infill, but in my experience, most growth is still coming from suburbs in the US.

Duval County (Jacksonville) still has vast areas of undeveloped land. The West and North side are still largely rural and are seeing a ton of suburban-style houses built. Also, in the SE portion of the county, along the St Johns Co. line, there is the massive Nocatee development planned. Add to this all the infill in Downtown, Riverside, Springfield and the Beaches and the county is really adding to the housing stock. By the way, does anyone know how large in terms of square miles Duval and Mecklenburg are??

[Viper]

By the way, does anyone know how large in terms of square miles Duval and Mecklenburg are??

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Actual land area:

Duval - 774 sq miles

Mecklenburg - 526 sq miles

[satalac]

I doubt that Davidson County will ever reach 1 million people. It might have a population boom if people began moving up 24 towards Clarksville. That area is nice, and its still sparsely populated. My 2030 estimate: 700,000.

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that section of north nashville that you're talking about is too hilly, rocky and not that big. everyone that is moving to davidson county is moving to the southern part of it. there will probably be a small boom downtown also, but not more than 4000. i agree with your 2030 estimate though.

[jmanhsv]

^Forgot about those hills! It could be good for large mansions

[ariesjow]

that section of north nashville that you're talking about is too hilly, rocky and not that big. everyone that is moving to davidson county is moving to the southern part of it. there will probably be a small boom downtown also, but not more than 4000. i agree with your 2030 estimate though.

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Are you talking about the area in northwest Nashville past Bordeaux and west of Joelton (which is sort of sparsely populated)? I grew up near there in the Enchanted Hills subdivision. It's very sparsely populated once you get past my parents subdivision. Why? I'm not sure. It's a beautiful area that isn't far from downtown at all. It is incredibly hilly but so are other of areas of Davidson County that have nice developments like Bellevue. Last time I was in Nashville, I did notice they were building a few subdivisions further out than my parents'.

[The_sandlapper]

Can't believe Gwinnett Co. in "metro" Atlanta wasn't mentioned? It's sitting on about 700K with a pretty fast growth rate at 66.7% from 90-00.

[A2]

Can't believe Gwinnett Co. in "metro" Atlanta wasn't mentioned? It's sitting on about 700K with a pretty fast growth rate at 66.7% from 90-00.

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I would have to agree sl. Gwinnett definately needs to be added. I can easily see it hitting the 1M mark by 2012/2014 or so. I have to go there quite often and feel like all of metro ATL is squeezed into it. The roads around the 285 and 85 connector are a mess.

A2

[A2]

sorry duplicate post

A2

[Skyybutter]

Well I think Mecklenburg will do it first because the 2005 estimates are around 830,000. and, by 2010 the city of charlotte is expected to have over a million residents if that tells you anything

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I think Gwinnett in Suburban Atlanta should be on this list. The county has added over 100,000 in just 4 years. I voted for Mecklenburg myself though.

[satalac]

Are you talking about the area in northwest Nashville past Bordeaux and west of Joelton (which is sort of sparsely populated)? I grew up near there in the Enchanted Hills subdivision. It's very sparsely populated once you get past my parents subdivision. Why? I'm not sure. It's a beautiful area that isn't far from downtown at all. It is incredibly hilly but so are other of areas of Davidson County that have nice developments like Bellevue. Last time I was in Nashville, I did notice they were building a few subdivisions further out than my parents'.

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yes, that's the area. i've heard that it's simply just too hard to build there. true, other parts of nashville are hilly, but not like that section. it's very rocky. there are some people that are building out there however (the more the better i say). and i too would like to see some mansions on those hills jmanhsv.

[Viper]

Can't believe Gwinnett Co. in "metro" Atlanta wasn't mentioned? It's sitting on about 700K with a pretty fast growth rate at 66.7% from 90-00.

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At it's current growth rate, which will be difficult to continue, it would be 2012 when it eclipses the 1 million mark.

I feel that it's incredible growth rate will not be sustainable for the entire duration and therefore will miss the 2012 date. I predict it to arrive along with Duval and Wake in the 2014 timeframe.

[ironchapman]

^ You're right, I should have mentioned Gwinnett County.

Some of the posters here mentioned Pinellas and Orange County in Florida. I didn't include them because they are already so close to 1 mil. with the current population booms in their respective metros that they would leave all the others in the dust.

[Viper]

alright, who are the 2 pranksters that voted Jefferson County?

[A2]

alright, who are the 2 pranksters that voted Jefferson County?

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I agree Viper. I do not see Jefferson growing at all. I used to live in B'ham. Everyone in the Metro is fleeing to Shelby or St Clair counties. Unless there is a much larger increase in population around Trussville or perhaps Hoover, Jefferson County will be under 1M for quite some time. It is concievable that Shelby county will leave Jefferson in the dust on pop within the next two decades.

A2

[Blazer85]

I agree Viper. I do not see Jefferson growing at all. I used to live in B'ham. Everyone in the Metro is fleeing to Shelby or St Clair counties. Unless there is a much larger increase in population around Trussville or perhaps Hoover, Jefferson County will be under 1M for quite some time. It is concievable that Shelby county will leave Jefferson in the dust on pop within the next two decades.

A2

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Do you realize how much construction is going on in Jefferson County? Thousands upon thousands of new homes are being built in Trussville, Clay, Gardendale, etc. The northern part of the county is virtually undeveloped right now. Gardendale in a single act annexed 1,000acres of undeveloped land and has plans for several hundred residences. And that's not even all that's going on in Gardendale... and that's just Gardendale. Heck, even in downtown, there are over 1,500 new units proposed or under construction.

Personally, I'm not saying Jefferson Co. will necessarily beat some of the others in this poll, but it will happen... and sooner than some of you believe. Jefferson County is nowhere near having been developed to its potential. Less than half the county has really been developed worth anything and it has 660,000. The Northern Beltline and I-22 will really create easy access to new areas and the northern suburbs will absolutely explode.

Also important to note that there are several major retail developments now being constructed in the northern part of Jefferson Co. That alone doesnt necessarily mean much, but it definitely will have an influence. Many people live down in south Jefferson Co. or Shelby Co. because they have more retail options available. There are currently NO major retail developments in north Jefferson Co. Even as soon as 2010, you'll see north Jefferson Co. exploding and you'll see Jefferson Co. population numbers growing.

BTW, Shelby Co. has about 160,000 and Jefferson Co. has about 660,000 so if they can gain half a million in a decade or two SMARTLY, more power to them.

[Viper]

Shelby County Tenn, not Alabama. Shelby is Memphis with over 900,000.

Between 1990 and 2003, Jefferson County gained only 7,000 people.

[Blazer85]

Shelby County Tenn, not Alabama.

[Viper]

Lots of acreage but what it going to be put there? I see the zoning but is anything planned yet?

Shelby, Al did some good gains from 1990 - 2003 by adding 60,000. Far better than Jefferson.

[Blazer85]

Lots of acreage but what it going to be put there?  I see the zoning but is anything planned yet?

Shelby, Al did some good gains from 1990 - 2003 by adding 60,000.    Far better than Jefferson.

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Yes ...there are plans for the land. Developers are already in discussions with the city. There is also another major development for Gardendale about 2 miles from there ...about a 100-home subdivision. Definitely alot of growth around Gardendale. That is where I live, so I have a fair bit of information about it.

As far as Shelby Co., I conceded that because there is not much land left to be developed in southern Jefferson County. Most of it is either developed or being sat on by people or corporations. Northern Jefferson Co. is not like that at all... much of it is undeveloped.

[cosmoboy]

I know Atlanta owns parts DeKalb County but does it own parts of any other.