Which of these counties will be the first to reach

[ironchapman]

^ No, it doesn't, unless you include Hartsfield-Jackson Airport (which the city owns). In that case, part of the city is in Clayton County.

[Charleston native]

Duval County (i.e. Jacksonville) hands down. The city is growing tremendously. Charlotte (Mecklenburg County) is a close 2nd place.

[krazeeboi]

I initially voted for Shelby County, but I actually think it will be Mecklenburg. Hopefully I'll be out of York County by the time the spillover really starts getting to Rock Hill.

[sonofaque86]

Definitately close between Duval County and Mecklenburg...I think Duval will get there first...Duval is a little more populated and there growing at about the same pace...If not by the 2010 census they both will be past 1 mil by the 2020 one.

[Newnan]

I voted for Fulton County but my actual choice would Be Gwinnett County. This county is growing liek crazy!! In 2000 It had 588,000 and in 2004 it had 700,000-seriously!

[krazeeboi]

Yes, Gwinnett is about out of control these days. And it's crazy, because there's still a LOT of land left that could be developed in the county, especially in the eastern part.

[qwertycc]

this interested me, and since I had some spare time, I did some figuring. some have already provided figures, but let me reiterate:

(I did not include the Louisana parrishes, and I added Cobb and Gwinnett Counties from Georgia)

County**2000 Census**2004 Estimate**%Increase**(Per year)

Fulton County, GA 816,006 814,438 Negative

DeKalb County, GA 665,865 675,725 1.48% (0.37%)

Gwinnett County, GA 588,448 700,794 19.09%(4.77%)

Cobb County, GA 607,751 654,005 7.61% (1.90%)

Mecklenburg County, NC 695,454 771,617 10.95%(2.74%)

Wake County, NC 627,846 719,520 14.60%(3.65%)

Shelby County, TN 897,472 908,175 1.19% (0.30%)

Davidson County, TN 569,891 572,475 0.45% (0.11%)

Duval County, FL 778,879 821,338 5.45% (1.36%)

Jefferson County, AL 662,047 658,495 Negative

So, although possibly unfair to Jefferson and Fulton, I had to throw them out of my equations. Using an exponential growth formula with annual compounding and natural logorithms (bleh), I found how long it would take each county to reach 1 million. I assumed, in an unlikely scenario, current growth rates remaining constant. Therefore (figures are rounded to nearest quarter):

DeKalb 106 years

Gwinnett 8.25 years

Cobb 22.5 years

Mecklenburg 9.5 years

Wake 9.25 years

Shelby 32 years

Davidson 507 years

Duval 14.5 years

So if current trends remain true, Gwinnett will be first to a million, followed closely by Wake then Mecklenburg. Of course, it's highly unlikely figures will remain constant. And then you have a whole slew of other factors.

[Louisvilleslugger]

Louisville/Jefferson county has 700,003.

[qwertycc]

Jefferson County, KY

2000: 693,604

2004: 700,030

%Increase: 0.93% (0.23% per year)

Number of years until reaching 1 million if current rates remain constant:

155 years--certainly better than Davidson

[krazeeboi]

Well, I guess we have our answer. Good job, gwertycc. I'll have to take your word for it since I don't have time to double-check the math.

And as you have stated, this is how it will all pan out IF current growth rates remain constant. I really don't see anything hindering growth in Gwinnett, Wake, Mecklenburg, or Duval, but I guess it remains to be seen if any factors will propel one one of those counties above the other three.

[Martinman]

this interested me, and since I had some spare time, I did some figuring.  some have already provided figures, but let me reiterate:

(I did not include the Louisana parrishes, and I added Cobb and Gwinnett Counties from Georgia)

County**2000 Census**2004 Estimate**%Increase**(Per year)

Fulton County, GA            816,006        814,438        Negative       

DeKalb County, GA          665,865        675,725        1.48%  (0.37%)

Gwinnett County, GA        588,448        700,794        19.09%(4.77%)

Cobb County, GA            607,751        654,005        7.61%  (1.90%)

Mecklenburg County, NC  695,454          771,617        10.95%(2.74%)

Wake County, NC            627,846        719,520        14.60%(3.65%)

Shelby County, TN          897,472          908,175        1.19%  (0.30%)

Davidson County, TN        569,891        572,475        0.45%  (0.11%)

Duval County, FL              778,879        821,338        5.45%  (1.36%)

Jefferson County, AL        662,047        658,495        Negative

So, although possibly unfair to Jefferson and Fulton, I had to throw them out of my equations.  Using an exponential growth formula with annual compounding and natural logorithms (bleh), I found how long it would take each county to reach 1 million.  I assumed, in an unlikely scenario, current growth rates remaining constant.  Therefore (figures are rounded to nearest quarter):

DeKalb          106 years

Gwinnett        8.25 years

Cobb            22.5 years

Mecklenburg  9.5 years

Wake            9.25 years

Shelby          32 years

Davidson      507 years 

Duval            14.5 years

So if current trends remain true, Gwinnett will be first to a million, followed closely by Wake then Mecklenburg.  Of course, it's highly unlikely figures will remain constant.  And then you have a whole slew of other factors.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd like to add, though it can't be proven until the next census, the local planners believe that the Fulton county estimate is way off. Whatever the correct number is, it is highly doubtful that the county has lost population. The ARC (Atlanta Regional Commission) estimates that Fulton's current population is around 900,000.

[rocket9561]

Jefferson County, KY

2000: 693,604

2004: 700,030

%Increase: 0.93% (0.23% per year)

Number of years until reaching 1 million if current rates remain constant:

155 years--certainly better than Davidson

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The Davidson numbers are contested by most locals. The growth rate between 1990 and 2000 was about 12% and since all other areas of the metro have retained their growth rates or sped up it is highly unlikely Davidson has seen this kind of drop.

[Viper]

The 2004 Duval figure is estimated at 830,000, not 821,000 (Podunk has it wrong).

6.6 % / (1.7%)

9.5 years.

Making it...

1. Gwinnett - 8.5

2. Wake - 9.25

3. Duval - 9.5

. Mecklenburg - 9.5

5. Cobb - 22.5

[mandrws1]

I voted for Memphis/Shelby County. For those of you that don't know, developers are in complete control in Shelby County. Growth and sprawl seem to be out of control. Much of eastern Shelby County is developed and suburbia is spilling over into Fayette Coutny, which was one of the fastest growing counties in the country. The southern spillover from Memphis/Shelby County has made Desoto County, MS one of the fastest growing counties in the nation also. Shelby County is so big and there is so much more room and this is why Millington and other smaller suburbs in North/Northeastern Shelby County are experiencing so much growth now. IMO, Shelby County will gain 100,000 more citizens by the year 2015!

[qwertycc]

The 2004 Duval figure is estimated at 830,000, not 821,000 (Podunk has it wrong).

6.6 % / (1.7%)

9.5 years.

Making it...

1. Gwinnett - 8.5

2. Wake - 9.25

3. Duval - 9.5

.  Mecklenburg - 9.5

5. Cobb - 22.5

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I got the 821,338--well, all those population figures--from the Census Bureau website. I'm sure there are different estimates for all these counties out there somewhere, but I was just staying consistent.

I know in Shelby, for instance, that the Census estimate for the municipalities of Collierville and Arlington are lower than special censuses conducted by the cities themselves. Those 2 discrepancies alone could add 4,000, more or less, to Shelby's total and increase its rate slightly. But like I said, these are merely unfounded projections. Though I did want to rely consistently on a solid source. In other words, not Podunk. I suppose that's not fair--I apologize. It is a good site, but I wouldn't use it for quoting statistical figures and estimates when this gem is so readily available: http://www.census.gov/ Besides, Podunk probably gets its information largely from the Census site.

With all these counties, and Shelby for sure (since I'm more familiar with it), we have to remember that a boom in home sales and new neighborhoods do not necessarily equal a population boom. I would guess in Shelby's case that a large percentage of home sales and new home buyers already lived in Shelby County. You have both the "home swapping" and the "suburb flight" (or as it is unfortunately called in Shelby, "white flight"). And then you've got those who move out of a county and have to be "replaced" by a new move-in for balance. Those are things to keep in mind in whatever county. Perception of growth is not always reality of growth. Certainly there is growth, but just because a whole lot of houses are going up does not mean that a whole lot of people are moving in from outside.

Oh well, I look forward to seeing which one does reach 1 million first. My vote is for Gwinnett, though no Atlanta metro county has done it yet. They seem to grow to a certain point, slow down, and then people want to start living even further out in the next county. And Duval would get my second vote.

[Lady Celeste]

I think qwertycc's post makes the most sense.

Gwinnett is a beast. It has a very good reputation, it's a relatively affluent county, very good school system, growing business environment and is still relatively affordable housingwise in metro Atlanta dollars. One other thing that bodes well for Gwinnett is the fact that is still has soooooo much available land for continued development. Extreme northern and eastern Gwinnett are relatively exurban in feel and can support 1000+ home subdivisions with ease. GA 316 has opened up alot of the eastern part of Gwinnett to future development.

What baffles me about Gwinnett is that inspite of the amazing traffic congestion getting into the county during rush hour, people continue to move there in droves. It could stand to increase its public transportation options because I'm sure there is a growing market for multiple transit options.

Qwertycc said:

Oh well, I look forward to seeing which one does reach 1 million first. My vote is for Gwinnett, though no Atlanta metro county has done it yet. They seem to grow to a certain point, slow down, and then people want to start living even further out in the next county.

This will be a trend we have to follow closely. Fulton lost alot of growth in northern Fulton to Forsyth because property values skyrocketed and property taxes followed suit. Many people simply moved to southern Forsyth county and saw their annual property taxes fall thousands of dollars. As long as Gwinnett keeps their taxes low they will see appreciable growth. If Jackson or Hall counties (the next counties north) become a better option then people will soon start packing up and heading for cheaper digs.

BTW, I am baffled at Fulton's supposed loss of population. Intown construction is considerably strong, growth in southern Fulton county is finally starting in earnest and northern Fulton, while down, is still adding homes. I guess like Q said earlier, development doesn't always equate to more people. I will be curious to see next years estimates and especially the 2010 census numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see Fulton at 1,000,000.....it could well be the sleeper.

[sleepy]

Regarding Fulton County--

As has been said by another forumer, new infill construction and a "back to the city" movement frequently translates into population loss rather than increase, as larger, yet poorer, families are displaced to make room for more affluent young singles and empty nesters.

And of course as property values increase, middle class families with children find it more difficult to find affordable housing in that sort of environment.

I would find it difficult to believe that Fulton County would go from 810,000 to 1,000,000 by 2010.

[The_sandlapper]

Gwinnett, Yeah it's pretty scary to think about how much growth that has occured so recently and about how much more it could potentially grow, it's unreal!!!

[Martinman]

With all these counties, and Shelby for sure (since I'm more familiar with it), we have to remember that a boom in home sales and new neighborhoods do not necessarily equal a population boom.

[qwertycc]

The part about the home sales was more directed towards mandrws1's post about Shelby County development signifying automatic population growth. Though, it certainly was meant in a general sense for other counties as well. But I didn't intend it to try and prove the Census correct in counties where there are discrepancies. I personally find it unlikely that Fulton has lost population as well.

I guess we'll find out come the 2010 census.

[TennBear]

One interesting note on this is how Katrina and the number of people that have moved to other cities not to return to New Orleans. It is estimated that Memphis has gained ~10,000 from this. Much smaller than Houston, though Rita may change that and Baton Rouge; but still a large jump. I also know that Birmingham and Atlanta got a boost as well.

[sleepy]

One interesting note on this is how Katrina and the number of people that have moved to other cities not to return to New Orleans. It is estimated that Memphis has gained ~10,000 from this. Much smaller than Houston, though Rita may change that and Baton Rouge; but still a large jump. I also know that Birmingham and Atlanta got a boost as well.

I was under the impression that the 10,000 figure for Memphis was the number of evacuees, not the number of people "not to return."

[MR-2]

Wake is a sizeable county with a lot of undeveloped areas. It could feasibly reach 1,000,000 by sprawling single-family homes in all the remaining areas. That gives it a lot of leeway for gaining population through densification. Mecklenburg on the other hand is fast running out of room. Curious to see if they can densify at a fast enough rate to keep up in population with counties that need only sprawl.

(and believe me, I would much rather see a dense Triangle than a populous one).

[RiverwoodCLT]

In Charlotte, I am seeing more high rise condos and apartments going up. The closer you get to uptown Charlotte, I see alot of infilling going on. Charlotte, is getting more dense. With the cost of gas, I beleive you will see more high rise living coming to Meckenburg county.

[krazeeboi]

Even with the rising cost of gas, many people still cannot afford to live in Uptown; maybe some of the traditional in-town neighborhoods will see a residential increase.