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Which of these counties will be the first to reach

ironchapman

By ironchapman
in USA South

  

160 members have voted

  1. 1. Which of these counties will be the first to reach

    • Fulton County (Georgia)
      21
    • DeKalb County (Georgia)
      2
    • Mecklenburg County (North Carolina)
      41
    • Wake County (North Carolina)
      16
    • Duval County (Florida)
      29
    • Orleans Parish (Louisiana)
      1
    • Baton Rouge Parish (Louisiana)
      1
    • Jefferson County (Alabama)
      3
    • Davidson County (Tennessee)
      6
    • Shelby County (Tennessee)
      27
    • Other (Explain)
      13

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mandrws1 Hamlet

mandrws1

Posted
Posted

The part about the home sales was more directed towards mandrws1's post about Shelby County development signifying automatic population growth. Though, it certainly was meant in a general sense for other counties as well. But I didn't intend it to try and prove the Census correct in counties where there are discrepancies. I personally find it unlikely that Fulton has lost population as well.

I guess we'll find out come the 2010 census. :)

Good point. But many of these areas are topping out as far as population and infrastructure is concerned. I was reading an article where the mayor of Southaven, MS (a Memphis suburb) stated that he didn't want his city to become another Memphis looking neighborhood and didn't want the debt that Shelby County has accrued from rising costs (building new schools and infrastructure). Then there are so many infill projects going on within the city. Me personally, I'm looking to move closer to my job in the CBD because of rising gas prices and I think its safe to say that other middle classers don't want to be so far out in the burbs because of this also. I don't know if Shelby will be the first, but I think 2015 is reasonable.

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sleepy Burg

sleepy

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Good point. But many of these areas are topping out as far as population and infrastructure is concerned. I was reading an article where the mayor of Southaven, MS (a Memphis suburb) stated that he didn't want his city to become another Memphis looking neighborhood and didn't want the debt that Shelby County has accrued from rising costs (building new schools and infrastructure). Then there are so many infill projects going on within the city. Me personally, I'm looking to move closer to my job in the CBD because of rising gas prices and I think its safe to say that other middle classers don't want to be so far out in the burbs because of this also. I don't know if Shelby will be the first, but I think 2015 is reasonable.

I think Shelby Co. will grow far more slowly this decade than last. It gained about 70,000 last census. From 2000 to 2004, it only showed a gain of about 10,000. Most of the unincorporated county is in the Memphis annexation reserve area, and if you want to be safe from Memphis annexation--which most do--you have to buy in the well-off suburban cities and pay the price.'

So, instead of that, people just opt for DeSoto or Fayette.

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ironchapman City

ironchapman

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I still get 814,438 from the Census for 2004. Where are you getting over 900k? Which by Census accounts is a loss of 2k people from the 2000 Census. Can you provide a link that grants the Census acceptance of 900k in 2004?

Fulton County appealed the estimates a while ago saying that the Census underestimated the county by 91,000 people.

This is the thread about it.

^Undoubtedly, it (or Martinman, if he visits here again) will give you a better explanation than I can.

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Martinman Burg

Martinman

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I still get 814,438 from the Census for 2004. Where are you getting over 900k? Which by Census accounts is a loss of 2k people from the 2000 Census. Can you provide a link that grants the Census acceptance of 900k in 2004?

As I stated in my post (maybe I wasn't clear enough), Im getting 900,000 from the county's estimate which the census now accepts. I actually saw the story on the local news but there is an article about it on the county's website.

Other than that, common sense would suggest that the estimate was way off given the growth rate from 1990 to 2000 (25.7%, 16,000/year average), the super-hot intown residential market and the increased growth on the mostly rural southside of the county. Plus there was absolutely nothing to indicate that the county's growth came to a sudden stop in 2000.

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nashvol85 Hamlet

nashvol85

Posted
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that section of north nashville that you're talking about is too hilly, rocky and not that big. everyone that is moving to davidson county is moving to the southern part of it. there will probably be a small boom downtown also, but not more than 4000. i agree with your 2030 estimate though.

I agree. The northern ridge in Davidson county wouldn't allow for widespread development. Too inaccessable.

I would say that if they aggressively develop the area around J Percy Priest lake and continue to develop on the southside between Franklin road and Murfreesboro road, and development outside of Bellevue out towards Kingston Springs, and the newfound downtown/midtown appartment boom, then Davidson County may someday see 800,000...but that would probably be in 40-50 years when the county population will top out.

Nashville's development style is very spread out and the landscape just wouldn't allow for 1,000,000 people.

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nashvol85 Hamlet

nashvol85

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Plus there was absolutely nothing to indicate that the county's growth came to a sudden stop in 2000.

I often wonder why the census has done that to Davidson county. Not a super hot growth rate, but a solid 12% for the previous decade and suddenly stopping. They estimated Nashville growing by about 25,000 between 90-99 while it actually grew by about 60,000. Now they have it growing by 3,000 in the last 5 years while county officials estimate growth of about 25-30,000. I don't get it...we're still issuing thousands of residential building permits... :huh:

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AceMentor Whistle-Stop

AceMentor

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Posted

You know its too hard to estimate the population patterns like these, you never know until it happens. As for my opinion though, I believe charlotte won't end up like many expect it to. It doesn't seem to have the infrastructure of a big city, (although it is trying to). Theres just an inkling feeling (not to insult anyone) that none of the things many hope for will happen.

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Lady Celeste Burg

Lady Celeste

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Durhamite.....language please hun. He offered his opinion. The best way to get the last laugh is to prove the person wrong with facts. I think Mecklenburg like any other county has the potential for maximum growth. I have no idea of what he speaks but he offered his opinion. Having said that, I wish the census would go ahead and change Fulton County's stats to the 905,082 they agreed it should be. Perhaps they are just going to wait till the make the 2006 update. Maybe by then another 10,000 - 15,000 people would have moved in so then it will be 925,000. -_-

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qwertycc Whistle-Stop

qwertycc

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Update for 2005 Census estimates:

County {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} Estimate 2005 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} Census 2000 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} Growth {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} Annual Growth {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} % Growth {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} Annual % Growth {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} Years to 1 Million {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} Year to Reach

Fulton County , GA {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 915,623 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 816,006 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 99,617 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 19,923 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 12.208% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2.442% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 8.4 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2013

Shelby County, TN {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 909,035 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 897,472 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 11,563 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2,313 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1.288% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 0.258% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 42.0 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2047

Pinellas County, FL {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 928,032 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 921,482 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 6,550 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1,310 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 0.711% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 0.142% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 57.6 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2063

Duval County, FL {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 826,436 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 778,879 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 47,557 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 9,511 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 6.106% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1.221% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 20.6 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2026

Travis County, TX {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 888,185 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 812,280 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 75,905 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 15,181 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 9.345% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1.869% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 11.2 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2016

Baltimore County, MD {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 786,113 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 754,292 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 31,821 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 6,364 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 4.219% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 0.844% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 33.6 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2039

Mecklenburg, NC {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 796,372 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 695,454 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 100,918 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 20,184 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 14.511% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2.902% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 12.7 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2018

Wake County, NC {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 748,815 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 627,846 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 120,969 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 24,194 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 19.267% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 3.853% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 12.3 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2017

Gwinnett County, GA {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 726,273 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 588,448 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 137,825 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 27,565 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 23.422% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 4.684% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 11.6 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2017

DeKalb County, GA {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 677,959 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 665,865 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 12,094 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2,419 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1.816% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 0.363% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 112.2 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2117

Cobb County, GA {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 663,818 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 607,751 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 56,067 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 11,213 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 9.225% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1.845% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 27.2 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2032

Jefferson County, AL {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 657,229 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 662,047 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} -4,818 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} -964 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} -0.728% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} -0.146% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} -283.1 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1722

Davidson County, TN {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 575,261 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 569,891 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 5,370 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1,074 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 0.942% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 0.188% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 298.7 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2304

Oklahoma County,OK {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 684,543 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 660,448 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 24,095 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 4,819 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 3.648% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 0.730% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 57.1 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2062

Tulsa County, OK {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 572,059 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 563,299 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 8,760 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1,752 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1.555% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 0.311% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 184.8 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2190

El Paso County, TX {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 721,598 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 679,622 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 41,976 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 8,395 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 6.176% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1.235% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 31.5 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2036

Jefferson County, KY {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 699,827 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 693,604 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 6,223 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1,245 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 0.897% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 0.179% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 204.1 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2209

Hidalgo County, TX {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 678,275 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 569,463 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 108,812 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 21,762 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 19.108% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 3.822% {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 15.0 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2020

Jefferson County, AL has negative growth rate so the last 2 columns are a little off. Again, this assumes current growth rates will remain constant and dismissed any factors associated with fluctuating growth rates and the typical slowdown of growth as growth occurs. I also included several not considered before. Just food for thought. :)

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qwertycc Whistle-Stop

qwertycc

Posted
Posted

I edited your post qwertycc.......

You had Pinellas County TN....as opposed to Pinellas County FL.

Whoops. Thanks. Looks like the problem with Fulton got cleared up and now looks in the best position to reach 1 million first. Pinellas County is growing less than I figured they would be. Maybe another error in the Census Estimates? Travis County (Austin) doesn't surprise, but Hidalgo County (McAllen) is growing rapidly under the radar. That county could reach 1 million before the likes of Shelby (Memphis), Duval (Jacksonville), and Baltimore and has the 3rd highest % growth behind Gwinnett and Wake. Wow!

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