Downtown Population Density

[Sabaidee]

Well, I meant there are census tracts that would equal 100,000 people per a square mile, if they were proportional to a square mile.

[monsoon]

Ok....using GIS the number area I came up with using the interior lane of I-277 is 2.50 sq. mi. exactly, after netting out NCDOT controlled land and Elmwood Cemetary, I came up with 1.92 sq. mi., and netting out the Stadium and land on the other-side of Morehead that is generally percieved as being outside of downtown, I cam up with 1.72 sq. mi.

As far as Boston, 100,000 in 1sq, mi. seems high, but the city does average around 13,000/sq. mi.  New york has some block groups that are close to 200,000/sq. mi. (but of course these areas are much smaller than a sq. mi., so I'm not sure how sustained that density is), and Philly has some areas I believe that contain over 70,000 in an actual sq. mi.

As far as what would feel comfortable, I think 30,000 to 40,000 is reasonable.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for the verification of my guesstimate. It was not far off from your middle number.

[dubone]

as far as what would feel comfy... it is important to note that it all depends on how it is implemented.

For example, i happen to find the low density of southern mecklenburg unbearable, because it is designed in a way to cause excess traffic on monopoly thoroughfares. Now, while uptown has a grid, which should make a 10k or 20k population okay from a traffic perspective (considering it already easily handles the 60k of uptown workers commuting), there comes a point where other amenities like park/open space will become important. The dead area of 3rd ward might get filled with residential towers... but without a park, it would be much less bearable to live there, as you'd be half a mile or so from a reasonably sized open area to walk the dog or throw a frisbee. That makes a big difference for liveability.

Imagining a potential future where all blocks uptown are filled with buildings, i think it is best if maybe 1/4 of each ward is filled with medium density housing (like townhouses/tightly spaced sfh), as is the case already for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd wards. each ward needs at least one 2-block park, within a few blocks of walking distance at most from all areas of the ward. Street car or other transit is necessary to get high volumes of people from the residential portions of uptown to the employment areas like Trade and Tryon. Also, i'd say that a few more bridges are needed to reconnect the downtown gridstreets with the area outside of 277 (davidson-euclid is planned, 5th street to elizabeth is planned, and maybe a few more). High volume retail is needed, as is already planned for midtown.

Anyway, my point is you could very easily increase downtown's population to 40000 without decreasing the quality of life for the 8500ish that already live uptown, but infrastructure must be increased to coincide with that growth, and the pattern of development to house those extra 30k people must be a mixture of lower density townhouses and high rises.

My number: 40,000

[Sabaidee]

I wish 2nd Ward would get some residential development, even though there are in the master plan, right now 2nd Ward is dead. Too bad the Park is having problems, it would be the first residential building in 2nd ward.

[dubone]

I wish 2nd Ward would get some residential development, even though there are in the master plan, right now 2nd Ward is dead. Too bad the Park is having problems, it would be the first residential building in 2nd ward.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i'm fine with leaving it fallow until the other ward reach a certain level. third and first wards have huge areas where it currently just vacant or surface lots, and fourth ward to a lesser degree. The momentum caused by the existing residential areas in those wards, but extend gradually to the contiguous areas before you can expect a brand new neighborhood to build an identity. I'd say that over the next 5 years, demand for uptown living should be satisfied by slowly building on surface lots in 3rd, 1st and 4th ward (or redev of outdated complexes like 4th ward square). In five years, when, say 80% of the other wards are covered, development can start to extend into 2nd ward as contiguous development extending from the future adam's mark redev, the arena/the park area, and the westin/land freed from the 277 redesign.

[carolina_fan]

The magic number I am waiting on is 12,500. That # is when we will be on the radar for major retail. We only have acouple thousand to go. We should get that by the end of 06', possibly First of 07'

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A2, why will 12,500 put uptown on the radar? Where do you get that number?

[teshadoh]

From what I recall - just a simple 1 mile query of adjoining census block groups - I got at least 8000. I forgot if that was from the 2000 census or 2004 population estimates provided by a data vendor (ESRI users would know what data I'm reffering to). Nonetheless, 12500 isn't too far off of a number.

[hueion39]

It might be more accurate to factor out 2nd Ward completely... and maybe half of 3rd Ward to Graham St.

[Sabaidee]

Technically 2nd Ward do have residents, since the wards are divided up by Trade and Tryon, the Green is east of Tryon thus making it in 2nd Ward.

[SmellyCat]

the wards are divided up by Trade and Tryon, the Green is east of Tryon thus making it in 2nd Ward.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I've always heard this to be the case, but why then is there a little "Third Ward" sign when approaching the city on 5th Street (just before Gateway Village begins)? Since this is north of Trade, I figured it was Fourth Ward.

[A2]

A2, why will 12,500 put uptown on the radar?  Where do you get that number?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is a number that is important to retailers. Most all retailers have a formula to determine if they will have success in a certain location. This formula includes demographics, income levels, and of course popluation within a certain radius of their proposed location. For Uptown that number is 12,500 as defined be the Chamber. Tim Newman, from Center City Partners, has been in talks with many major retailers not only in the region, but from accross the nation. The number that he keeps getting from these "players" is 12,500 before they will commit to leases within the I-277 loop. Right now there is roughly 10K within the loop, we are at the cusp of BIG things. Even the Chamber and Newman himself have identified 2007 and 2008 as major tunrning points in Center City Retail. As we gain population from the new high-rise development as well as new J&W complex, we will see a nice addition to the population base giving us that "magic" # for the retailers we all desire uptown. From IKEA to Saks we are all going to see a dynamic shift in Uptown to Major Retail.

A2

[teshadoh]

EDIT - rather than chat about what I think I remembered, I'll just try to remember to post the exact pop counts I found.

[csedwards72]

Regional malls need a few hundred thousand people in a trading area. I'd be ecstatic for any kind of retail to come Uptown, but I'm not holding my breath for a 200,000 sf anchor.

[teshadoh]

Here are the block groups I used to determine the 2000 & 2004 population estimates for downtown, which I initially used 277 as the boundary definition.

Additionally - a more accurate population count for the 277 boundary is based on blocks, street block sized boundaries - that yielded a population of 5119 for 2000.

Now - based on block groups, larger areas of 3.37 sq. mile the population for 2000 was 7221. Through the software I use, I receive yearly data updates that includes population estimates for block groups, for 2004 it was 8919, a very large increase. In particular block group 500-2, it jumped from 329 in 2000 to 1019 in 2004. Also block groups 600-2 & 100-1 had populations over 1000 as well as population gains.