Would disaster in NO slow down booming in Florida?

[sunshine]

Would like to know your opinions.

[sunshine]

If Katrina come to Florida as Cat4 storm, would we see the same kind of destructions here in Florida? or our buildings are built to withstand it?

[Aessotariq]

It has been said before that coastal areas would experience several feet of storm surge. New Orleans' problems are so unique because the damage is more water-related, not as much wind.

Hurricane Andrew struck miles south of downtown Miami but the ground floors of many of the office buildings downtown had been flooded. They've said that many lower floors of buildings on the beach could be under water for a long period of time as well. The water would probably recede much faster, since we are above sea level. High-rises would remain structurally intact but would likely blow out regular windows like what we saw in New Orleans.

With new high-rise construction in South Florida, however, they have been using impact-resistant glass. In mid-rise and single-family construction, In new single-family construction I've seen, the developer has to provide panels and the windows come fitted for them, so you just slip them under the track above the window on the exterior wall and then turn the wingnuts on the bottom.

I do think that most concrete block construction built to hurricane code would fare well, provided the roof is properly secured and anchored to the walls (a cat 5 could easily decimate many buildings, though). It startled me to see a wood-framed apartment building being built along I-95 in Brevard County a few months ago. That same building design, which I have seen repeated a bazillion times, would have been concrete-block down here.

Recently-built high rises here in Miami have done well although there were some problems. The majority of the issues have been water leaks and ground floor flooding.

If we got flood damage to the extent that New Orleans got, I think we'd be in the same boat.

[bobliocatt]

I don't see any of these events leading to a slow down in Florida's economy. New Orleans is an old city below sea level with several buildings not built to today's hurricane standards. None of the hurricanes in the past have stopped Florida from booming, so there's no reason to believe Katrina will.

[bic]

If there is a slowdown, the main reason will be that some of the skilled labor will be migrating to New Orleans to help rebuild the city, making construction crews harder to come by here in Florida, delaying project construction and increasing construction costs.

[peaceloveunderstanding]

I personally know several people, including myself, who would never move to Flordia because of hurricanes but I am sure many people still would.

[TennBear]

I don't think that it will slow it.The projections keep showing that Florida will be among the fastest growing states. Many people like mild winters and the beach. The construction situation that BIC mentioned may slow it in the short run, but over the long run people forget about disasters and the idea of being able to be out during the winter will be what stays on their minds.

[RiversideGator]

Hurricanes are not as bad as some other natural disasters in my opinion. You at least know they are coming. If you are on fairly high ground and have a well constructed structure, it should survive.

[Florida]

And with Florida's boom in growth, all who move here known we are Hurricane Prone. I'd hate to say this, but I believe places like N.O. and Biloxi, Gulfport and such are going to have a much more difficult time rebuilding their cities back to their prior condidions.

I believe inland communities will get a surge from this, only to ease some fears of repeat incidents.

I just feel so bad for those who can't do better for themselves... the poor, and now homeless who've been uprooted from their homes, they have no choice but to return and try to make it work again... unless they can come up with the funds to move. I know of many who didn't have disaster insurance, and had been living in homes that have been in their families for over 100 years.

Look for sustained growth in Florida, pay close attention to the inland areas.

[Aporkalypse]

If there is a slowdown, the main reason will be that some of the skilled labor will be migrating to New Orleans to help rebuild the city, making construction crews harder to come by here in Florida, delaying project construction and increasing construction costs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Never thought about it that way, but that's an astute observation. The manpower and resources needed to make the city just livable again will be massive, to rebuild an entire city even moreso. It's like a nuclear bomb went off there, just with relatively little loss of life.

What happened in New Orleans couldn't happen in Florida because New Orleans' unique location below sea level with levees/pumps is nothing like any Florida city. Certain areas could get slapped around like Biloxi and Gulfport did but those areas will rebuild just like any part of Florida would. New Orleans, though, is a mess.

Florida codes are of course much better and that also plays a big role in buildings faring well.

[monsoon]

NO's disaster was due mostly to the unique situation there with it's layout. I don't think any of Fla's cities are in a similar situation. I do think however that many places in Fla could suffer as they did in Gulfport and Biloxi, Miss.

The real question is when the cries to end federally funded flood insurance start. Will the government actually do it this time or not? If they do, then it is going to hurt Fla pretty bad as people will find they have to pay market rates for insurance for homes located in danger areas.

[iris32]

Many cities in FL have a huge amount of high risers either being built and/or approved (and ready to break ground).

Most of those projects have already sold out the office spaces/residential condos prior to construction.

With the disaster in NO, besides the shortage of construction related labor we are going to experience, the cost of construction material is going to go up...

I wonder how that is going to affect the builders and the buyers of all those projects here in FL...

[prahaboheme]

The rising oil prices could be a problem.

[bobliocatt]

Yes, if things stay the same, construction costs will rise, thus possibly forcing the cancellation of several large-scale projects, not only in Florida, but the entire country.

[Tallaman]

NO's disaster was due mostly to the unique situation there with it's layout.  I don't think any of Fla's cities are in a similar situation.  I do think however that many places in Fla could suffer as they did in Gulfport and Biloxi, Miss. 

The real question is when the cries to end federally funded flood insurance start.  Will the government actually do it this time or not?  If they do, then it is going to hurt Fla pretty bad as people will find they have to pay market rates for insurance for homes located in danger areas.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's my understanding that much of what happened along the coast near Gulfport and Biloxi is becasue of the huge storm surge, and the surge was exacerbated by the relatively shallow water near the shore. The only place this phenomenon occurs in Florida is from Jefferson down to Pasco Counties, so I don't think Florida is as vulnerable to the surge, especially in populated areas. Higher construction standards and newer structures hedge on wind and rain damage, but Florida is certainly still vulnerable in that regard.

[Florida]

Nice contribution... welcome to Urban Planet Tallaman!!

I like the screen name btw.

[orlandonative]

I just received a fax from a drywall vendor addressing cost increase for gypsum board. It states that there were two manufacturing facilities in New Orleans that are obviously completely out of commision Meaning that wallboard from Florida plants will automatically be shipped to the affected areas. On top of that the natural gas needed to fuel these plants is piped from Louisiana. This restriction is already having affects on supply.

The consequence of these issues is that, with immeadiate effect, Gypsum Wallboard will be in full allocation for the near and foreseeable future. Furthermore until the extent of damage is determined there is no way to estimate how long this problem will persist. As if all that wasn't enough, an immediate cost increase of 10% has been issued. To compound all of that we are now being charged "fuel surcharges" for material delivery to all of our jobsites.

This is only one sector of building material. Most material dvisions will be affected in the same manner.

Cost will definetly affect construction. As will the avalibility of skilled labor.

[orlandonative]

I just received a fax from a drywall vendor addressing cost increase for gypsum board.  It states that there were two manufacturing facilities in New Orleans that are obviously completely out of commision  Meaning that wallboard from Florida plants will automatically be shipped to the affected areas.  On top of that the natural gas needed to fuel these plants is piped from Louisiana.  This restriction is already having affects on supply.

The consequence of these issues is that, with immeadiate effect, Gypsum Wallboard will be in full allocation for the near and foreseeable future.  Furthermore until the extent of damage is determined there is no way to estimate how long this problem will persist.  As if all that wasn't enough, an immediate cost increase of 10% has been issued.  To compound all of that we are now being charged "fuel surcharges" for material delivery to all of our jobsites.

This is only one sector of building material.  Most material dvisions will be affected in the same manner. 

Cost will definetly affect construction.  As will the avalibility of skilled labor.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

PVC cost will increase tomorrow 8-22%, may rise as much as 45% before the market stabilizes.

[csmurphy8885]

working at a Jimmy JOhns in tallahassee, the cost of ingredients is up 22percent from this day last week... owner expecting continual increase. Plus, the fsu/miami game here in town this weekend is being turned into a great way to raise money for the red cross and dissaster relief. (checks payable to red cross if ur attending).

The boom will continue. When you can afford to support the real estate market of florida, you can afford evacuations and insurance. I believe we may even get some new folks from the west, looking for a seldom hit city...

[Florida]

I've been trying not to look at it that way... but I do think it will be a welcome consequence... (that is until our time comes).

[csmurphy8885]

I would not want to jinx us....

[Aporkalypse]

There may be a percentage of people, albeit small, that last year and now the New Orleans tragedy will discourage from moving near a hurricane-prone coastline. I am hoping to leave Dallas and move to Florida in 2 years and my wife is already reluctant because of this.

[Florida]

No matter where you live... we are all at the mercy of Mother Nature.

[csmurphy8885]

i like the way a hurricane gives you a good bit of warning.. its just a matter of avoiding danger to self. Homes can be replaced. But you canot let one bad grape, ruin the whole cup of wine (yes, a pun, but also a truth. The very things that make it dangerous, make it intense). I wouldnt live anywhere else.