Will High Oil Prices Derail Charlotte Projects?

[A2]

It is always spiked by govenment inflation numbers.

[carolina_fan]

One thing to note, concerning the strength of Center City (alongside the residential boom going on), is the incrediblly low vacancies. As a matter of fact Charlotte is well under 7% in its office vacancies, making it the number one city in the US  for the lowest vacancies. This alone will only spur more development in that sector.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I thought the office vacancy rate in uptown was much higher. Has it come down dramatically in recent months?

[A2]

I thought the office vacancy rate in uptown was much higher.  Has it come down dramatically in recent months?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes. It has always been historically a very strong market, but with office space being used by the big boys we have used a lot of space in the last few years. The mergers of South Trust/Wachovia and the BofA/Fleet have also helped to absorb chucks of uptown space. When WB builds their complex on South Tryon the vacancy rate will rise slightly, but most of that space is expected to be gobbled up quite quickly upon completion. You have to remember that it will take at least two years to build the structure. We are, IMO, too strapped for space in CC. I fell that 8-12% is a healthy vacancy rate as it gives companies room for Immediate expansion, without the hang up of waiting for a building to be built. It also gives us an opportunity to encourage more relocations to the center city from other firms possibly eyeing CHarlotte for relocation.

This is where Atlanta's vacancies actually HELP with company relocations. Companies can "see" what they are getting, in the way of product.

[atlrvr]

The office vacancy in uptown is 6.9% according to CBRE's 2nd Quarter national office report, in which Charlotte does have the lowest CBD vacancy rate in the country. Metrowide, Charlotte is a bit higher, but still below the national average.

[A2]

The office vacancy in uptown is 6.9% according to CBRE's 2nd Quarter national office report, in which Charlotte does have the lowest CBD vacancy rate in the country.

[Seabreeze]

After listening to NPR, and taking into account uncertain but expected uprises toward our government, I expect a large recession if not a great depression. The magnitude of this event can be ignored, but I seriously doubt many of these highrises materializing anytime soon, or close to the projected dates... esp. since a mjor port in the USA will be closed for months. I guess we will have to see how it pans out. But my bets are on a lot of dissapointment expressed in this forum in the coming months.

Within the next month I will be going to New Orleans for a while with the red cross. I know I don't have many friends on here, but I will miss keeping up on the postings here.

I don't post these thoughts b/c I am pessimistic... but I am not blind with optimism either... I just don't see much of the country operating the same as it has lately...

I hope the Trademark and Vue make it if only a few projects are cut back!

(ps... You may be wondering what I meant with uprise against the government... Well, all money set aside to upgrade the levys in 2004 was sent to Iraq... if these had been upgraded, then the city would not be where it is today.... underwater... also, our national guard has responded slowly due to so many being in Iraq as well... and it is just now day 4 and the 82nd Airborne is just now arriving... trust... it will take a little while for this to sink in... then our country is going to react ina way that we have not seen since the great depression... again, i am speculating, we will have to see what happens... but I just hope a lot of you aren't that terribly surprised when/if it occurs... This is not an issue between Republican/Democrat... this was both sides deciding this... and it was this decision in priorities that affects our country today)

[dubone]

dang seabreeze... as if this stuff wasn't depressing enough.

i'm glad you are volunteering with the red cross. i cannot believe what is going on down there, and as much i want to think about stuff like the projects downtown and all that, it just doesn't seem to matter that much right now.

honestly, if bush didn't want to send the wrong message to the terrorists by pulling out of iraq before, then he sure as heck needs to rethink that now. You can bet that obl and the gang have their scratchpads out right now. this is the US's chance to pull way back from iraq and save our country from implosion!

[ElricSeven]

After listening to NPR, and taking into account uncertain but expected uprises toward our government, I expect a large recession if not a great depression. The magnitude of this event can be ignored, but I seriously doubt many of these highrises materializing anytime soon, or close to the projected dates... esp. since a mjor port in the USA will be closed for months. I guess we will have to see how it pans out. But my bets are on a lot of dissapointment expressed in this forum in the coming months.

Within the next month I will be going to New Orleans for a while with the red cross. I know I don't have many friends on here, but I will miss keeping up on the postings here.

I don't post these thoughts b/c I am pessimistic... but I am not blind with optimism either... I just don't see much of the country operating the same as it has lately...

I hope the Trademark and Vue make it if only a few projects are cut back!

(ps... You may be wondering what I meant with uprise against the government... Well, all money set aside to upgrade the levys in 2004 was sent to Iraq... if these had been upgraded, then the city would not be where it is today.... underwater... also, our national guard has responded slowly due to so many being in Iraq as well... and it is just now day 4 and the 82nd Airborne is just now arriving... trust... it will take a little while for this to sink in... then our country is going to react ina  way that we have not seen since the great depression... again, i am speculating, we will have to see what happens... but I just hope a lot of you aren't that terribly surprised when/if it occurs... This is not an issue between Republican/Democrat... this was both sides deciding this... and it was this decision in priorities that affects our country today)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Naw, we'll be fine. Disasters spur economic growth by dislodging money from insurance companies. Also, NO is only one of many U.S. ports.

[Norm2]

If this had happened before the election I dont think Bush would still be president.....

[SmellyCat]

Yeah, a third term isn't looking so good now

[Seabreeze]

Found out my date... Train on September 5th, leave a few days later. After going to read the reports on the BBC website I don't regret going... but I do seriously fear the Superdome like the plague now... But I guess life is about facing those fears...

[Mobuchu]

Good luck to you, and give us an update if you ever get the chance.

[monsoon]

OPPs.

[dubone]

OPPs. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i'm down with it. yeah you know me.

[RiverwoodCLT]

I see help is now coming to NO. But it looks like NO is going to burn down.

Building in downrown NO just collapse from fire. A Chemical building burn down this AM.

On TV, a long convoy of National Guard from Texas coming in.

Lets just hope that help for those poor people will be there today.

The Red Cross is using a lound speaker to give names to people locations so the people in NO will know where they are.

With the water and pollution, it will be an ecological disaster. Approximate 80% of NO will be effective. The cost will be beyound our imagination. It took me 10 years and tons of money to get an ok from the state from underground gas storage tanks leaks and this is a drop in the bucket compare to NO.

The EPA will be real busy for a long time in NO.

Maybe NO should do like Galveston, TX after its big hurricane, just fill in all the low areas before anything is built there.

Good luck Seabreeze, I am sure you will make a difference.

[RiverwoodCLT]

I could see a shortage of building materials due to the hurricane damages on the Gulf coast. It happen when Andrew hit south Florida. I think this will have more effect on construction here, than higher gas prices.

Even if gas prices go down, the shortage of building materials will be our biggest problem.

[Dale]

Shortage of building materials has been the only thing which has slowed our Florida boom. Those developers who purchased their materials early are right on schedule, whereas those that did not are just going as fast as they can manage.

But, good grief, I think the idea of a depression is way, way dour.

[RiverwoodCLT]

Don McAlvany [McAlvany.com] says that gas will be between $4.00 to $6.00 a gallon soon. Oil will go up to $100.00 a barrel. The housing bubble will bust and lots of people will loss a lot of money. The national debit will cause the dollar to loss on the world market.

If all this happens, yes Charlotte construction will be hurt.

[ngp]

Don McAlvany [McAlvany.com] says that gas will be between $4.00 to $6.00 a galion soon. Oil will go up to $100.00 a barrel. The housing bubble will bust and lots of people will loss a lot of money. The national debit will cause the dollar to loss on the world market.

If all this happens, yes Charlotte construction will be hurt.

In a place like Charlotte (or any other city, for that matter), wouldn't the huge increase in fuel costs prevent the housing bubble from popping? At least for in-town neighborhoods. The suburbs might suffer, but I'm thinking shorter commuting distances and mass transit options would help protect urban markets.

I know very little about this sort of thing, so don't be shy about telling me how wrong I am.

[RaleighHeelsfan]

Well, I'm in school. If the gas goes that high I will have to drop out. I'm already about out of money. This crap is really pissing me off. I guess I will have to beg my dad to buy me gas...but is that fair? The high gas prices will hurt him to.

(after all, he is paying for school)

Why can't we all strike? how does one go about getting together a national gas strike?

[A2]

Charlotte would be impacted, but not nearly to the extent that housing in center city will be derailed. Their is simply NO glut of housing in downtown. That is not the case with other cities like Boston and San Francisco, where prices are at astronomically high levels.

Charlotte has continued to boom, and will IMO. The energy costs, rising commodity prices, and the increase in bubble talk, will have an impact to an extent, but Supply and Demand is what will ultimately drive construction.

Bottom line, if people want to live uptown, then a developer will come up with a way to provide that prduct. In this city, there is a lot of money being tossed around, and there are a lot of people with it. These people that want to be in Center City will pay a premium if they truly want to be here.

This supply and demand is what will continue to fuel a market that has a LONG way to go be before it is overbuilt and vacancies shoot up.

Right now Chalrotte not only has the best Vacancies in the Office market of ANY city in the ENTIRE US, but vacancies in the aprtment market are incredibly low too. All in all there is an unbelieveable demand that will produce the supply, EVEN with high gas and steel prices.

ECON101 BABY !!!

A2

B)

[RaleighHeelsfan]

Well, I'm glad u all can afford it...and are stupid enough to pay those high prices for gas. All your worried about is if projects will be derailed in Charlotte..or this is a good thing because it will persuade people to move uptown. You dont care because you can afford it.

The majority of people can't afford it

[A2]

Well, I'm glad u all can afford it...and are stupid enough to pay those high prices for gas. All your worried about is if projects will be derailed in Charlotte..or this is a good thing because it will persuade people to move uptown. You dont care because you can afford it.

The majority of people can't afford it

I agree the majority of people can't. But that is what drives economies. Supply and demand, that is why only a select few can afford a Ferrari, BUT if they want it and the demand is there, the product will be delievered.

I do have to add one side note though...

There are a lot of places in CenterCity that are actually VERY reasonable. Atlrvr has mentioned this. I believe in third ward thhey are going to have a lot of lofts hit the market with prices well UNDER $200K ! This is much, much cheaper than center city living in many other large cities in the US.

I agree that it seems that the Rich can have their cake and eat it too, and its true, they can.

BUT, whether or not the rich move in and can afford it is of NO consequence. They will always be here and that is fine, and to some extent it is a good thing. BUT, with more people comes more product, and with more product, more people. The cylce is endless and will only result in more residents in the center city.

I have read in several articles where center city leader and developers expect to have between 50K and 75K in the next 15 years in downtown This is awesome. It will be confined inside the small 1.5 sqaure mile loop to boot.. This might be a majority of wealthy residents that make that number up, but I still think there will be a respectable number of middle classers who will pay the bucks to have uptown as their home address.

Look at NYC, if you are not a millionaire, it is impossible to OWN in Manhatten. But what happens, people that have a few bucks less and still want to be close to the city, compromise and live accross the river in Jersey.

All in all Charlotte is more than ok, I think it is going to flourish and grow at an accelerated rate over the next decade.

Just my two cents.

A2

B)

[carolina_fan]

Right now Chalrotte not only has the best Vacancies in the Office market of ANY city in the ENTIRE US, but vacancies in the aprtment market are incredibly low too.

A2, has the office market really rebounded that much? What is the current vacancy rate?

I have read in several articles where center city leader and developers expect to have between 50K and 75K in the next 15 years in downtown.

Are these realistic estimates? Atlrvr and others, what do you think?

[Dale]

Don McAlvany [McAlvany.com] says that gas will be between $4.00 to $6.00 a galion soon. Oil will go up to $100.00 a barrel. The housing bubble will bust and lots of people will loss a lot of money. The national debit will cause the dollar to loss on the world market.

If all this happens, yes Charlotte construction will be hurt.

I'm guessing that McAlvaney's erring on the dire side of things.

I don't think it'll be nearly that bad. But we will all find out soon enough.

Plus someone needs to telll this McAlvaney guy that there is no 'bubble'.