The end of New Orleans?

[Dale]

Let's be honest. The last president who really fought to save New Orleans was Andrew Jackson. So get off Bush's case.

[sleepy]

I see one of two things happening after the city is drained, but either way, the city will never exist as we knew it.

1- The city's population will return, life will resume. However, there will be thousands of structures declared inhabitable becuase of the water damage. Those structures plus the ones that have been demolished will be rebuilt with the insurance money.

After Hugo hit Charleston, the houses that were rebuilt we done much better, and

[Aporkalypse]

One big problem is the ice is melting in both polar regions.  The oceans is rising. Not only  New Orlean , but many cities on the coast will have trouble.

I have seen photos north side of Alaska on the Artic Ocean and Beaufort Sea, it is all water now, 20 years ago it was ice.

New orlean will have to build levees that are twice as high as they are now, just to survive.

The Gulf water is real warm now, and the hurricane season is half over. It may not be all over.  What happens in the next 3 months with the weather will determin what  what can happen in New Oleans.  I hope it will survive, but I don't think it will be as big as it was before the hurricane. It looks the housing covered with water will have to torn down and replace.

Looks like there will be a lot of Habitat housing coming up for the poor.  Get your saws, hammers, and other tools ready, and join Habitat for Humanity.  I sure it will play a big part in rebuilding New Orleans, Mississippi, and Alabama.  http://www.habitat-nola.org/ 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Now, polar ice cap melting is insignificant. That's discussing something that would occur over millenia not in a decade or two.

However, the real issue is the effect we've had on the wetlands that protect New Orleans and the receding coastline. The levees, while they protect the city and the people and land on the river's banks, prevent silt from depositing and rebuilding the marshland. Also, canals built over the years for various reasons allows saltwater in and helps with the coastline's recession.

At the same time, the Mississippi is trying desperately to change its course as it has every few centuries. The River is trying to change its course to the Atchafalaya basin, far west of New Orleans, and the Old Man River project is the only thing keeping New Orleans a port city. 1/4-1/3 of the River's water goes down the Atchafalaya to its delta right now, it would be much higher if we hadn't built the levees and dams to prevent more significant diversion. The Atchafalaya delta is the ONLY place in Louisiana the coastline is not receding.

There is an interesting, and eerily prophetic, article in National Geographic about the vanishing wetlands and the possibility of a New Orleans catastrophe:

http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0410/feature5/

[Spartan]

sleepy-

True, but those flood waters receeded in a fairly short amount of time. This water will be sitting there in New Orleans for at a minimum of 1 month if they start the pumps tomorrow, so it will likely be a much longer amount of time. How can you be so sure that there won't be damage to the houses that are just sitting there soaking up the water? I am not saying that they won't be there, just that the vast majority will have to be rebuilt.

[Aporkalypse]

I think that New Orleans will certainly be the same. The thing that's hard to ignore is that it's a city that wasn't doing well beforehand. It had some of the most impressive poverty, white flight, urban blight, and deterioration of its schools of any urban area. Most corporations, including the oil industry, abandoned it for Houston and other cities. Entergy is the only Fortune 500 company in New Orleans. Growth has been stagnant for generations as it was passed by cities it used to overshadow like Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta and probably even by Nashville and Charlotte. With that background in mind, a few points...

1) I think the impoverished who have nothing to do will settle elsewhere when they find jobs and lodging in new cities, either with relatives or in transition from shelters. They cant' afford to wait 6 months or a year. Once settled, they may not be able to risk moving back but most likely after this experience won't want to.

2) The Quarter, Garden District, CBD, and Uptown will see massive investment and will be fully restored. Tourism will resume as it always has if for no other reason than middle-aged men like to see breasts. Really, though, the history and character of New Orleans will carry this on. It will take years before these areas are fully restored, though.

3) I think other older residential areas will likely end up abandoned and perhaps not reconstructed, particularly in areas like the 9th ward where damage was severe. Too many people will find it is cheaper to keep the insurance money (particularly landowners) rather than rebuild at a premium in an area where property values will plummet. Once a few start this trend, it will spread as others will not want to rebuild in an area where the neighborhood is largely gutted. I think many of the older frame houses are going to be irreparable.

Perhaps these areas will become nouveau suburbs in a decade or two as new subdivisions can be carved out of them.

4) I think the population of the metro will fall drastically, maybe even by half or more. In the long run, though, I think more of the poorer residents will decide not to return and the more affluent who are in Orlando, New York, or in nice hotels in Houston or Dallas and didn't experience the same adversity will mostly return. I think the net demographic effect may be to increase per capita income in the city proper as well as the metro and greatly slow migration to Slidell, Hammond, etc as cheap housing will be available everywhere. Ultimately, maybe New Orleans will become more of a Charleston or Savannah instead of a major city over the next 2-3 decades.

It's interesting, but futile to speculate. Don't bother arguing as I am well aware it is possible if not probable I'm way off.

[sleepy]

sleepy-

True, but those flood waters receeded in a fairly short amount of time. This water will be sitting there in New Orleans for at a minimum of 1 month if they start the pumps tomorrow, so it will likely be a much longer amount of time. How can you be so sure that there won't be damage to the houses that are just sitting there soaking up the water? I am not saying that they won't be there, just that the vast majority will have to be rebuilt.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

After Hurricane Betsy, the water was there for weeks. One of the secretaries in my office in NO lived in Chalmette during that time, and spent 6 weeks in a shelter before she could go back home. The same levee that broke Tuesday and flooded the 9th ward and Chalmette--the Industrial Canal levee--was the same one that broke in 1965.

She still lives in the same house (or lived there until Tuesday) that was underwater in 1965.

[TSmith]

In this disaster, New Orleans fell victim to a horribly innadequate levee system designed and built by the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers. For New Orleans to be a viable city again, we must, as a nation, support the redesign, the construction, and the funds needed to build a levee system designed and engineered for a strong category 5 hurricane. Then, they need to add 5 feet to these new levees, and triple their thickness and strength so that nothing like this will EVER happen again. If this is accomplished, the city will thrive for generations to come.

You cannot base opinions on the viability of New Orleans with our current levee system in mind. The current levee system was designed for a category 3 hurricane. The thousands of people who are dead and dying in New Orleans today had their fate sealed decades ago when these levees were designed.

Remember, this situation IS preventable. This situation WAS preventable. Neither the public will, nor the funds were available for vast levee upgrades. Now, they will be. And we'll save future generation from going through the same horror we are going through now as a NATION.

New Orleans will be there. The desision has to be made wether or not we want this to happen again... and it will, if nothing is done.

[tombarnes]

The point raised about those with means returning is apt. They will return. Once they have returned, they will require support for their infrastructure and that of the all-important golden cash cow of tourism. Once jobs are available, many will flock to the city to live and work. It won't be the same, and may even suffer a significant loss of population, but something significant will certainly rise from the muck and industrial goo. You can count on this.

[Charleston native]

Gladly, but first get your facts straight.  Martial Law was not declared during Hurricane Hugo.  The last time it was used was in 1941 in Hawaii Pearl Harbor.  They didn't even use it after 9/11. 

According to the Constitution, only Congress has the right to suspend the writ of habeas corpus and place civilians under Military Rule which is what Martial Law is.  Subsequent court rulings have given the President the ability to declare martial law when emergencies require it.  In the case of Louisiana there is no legal precident to allow the governer to have the same authority hence the delay that you are referring to...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My facts are straight. I was there. On Sept. 22, 1989, the day after Hugo, martial law was declared by the governor, and national guard, state, and city police were allowed to authorize excessive force to prevent looting. Charleston CPD Chief Reuben Greenberg (now retired) was even quoted that day of telling his officers, "Don't arrest them, we don't have any room in our jails. Beat the sh*t out of them."

In referring to Constitutional law, the writ of habeus corpus refers to currently imprisoned inmates who feel that they have been wrongfully incarcerated. Congress has responsibilities to declare war and call up militia during war or invasion. However, states have their own powers given to them during emergencies in using their national guard and state police. National Guard Units are actually organized and maintained under the States power except during the time of war.

Anyway, I say again that everybody here needs to stop espousing the constant political B.S. during this disaster. Bush does have some responsibilities, but I think he has been handling them the best way. AGAIN, it is the city and state officials who have been totally inept with their management of the crisis. Look at other states and cities in MS and AL. Are they experiencing any of the lawlessness going on in New Orleans?! The answer is NO!! Are they working hard in managing the situation and trying to get help moved in to help their states' victims? Yes, they are. They're not freaking out like NO's mayor did, crying out an "SOS" on TV.

[monsoon]

.....

Anyway, I say again that everybody here needs to stop espousing the constant political B.S. during this disaster. Bush does have some responsibilities, but I think he has been handling them the best way. AGAIN, it is the city and state officials who have been totally inept with their management of the crisis. Look at other states and cities in MS and AL. Are they experiencing any of the lawlessness going on in New Orleans?! The answer is NO!! Are they working hard in managing the situation and trying to get help moved in to help their states' victims? Yes, they are. They're not freaking out like NO's mayor did, crying out an "SOS" on TV. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And the situation is not anywhere close to being the same there either. NO is a densely packed urban area as compared to the places in Mississippi. I think the Mayor has the absolute right to declare an SOS when there are tens of thousands of people in danger, dying, starving and there is no plan to evacuate them out of the place. Its the Federal Government's job to help and assist in these times of national emergencies and they have completely failed in this matter. And I find it amazing who people who say. "Oh Don't Criticize Bush, he is doing a wonderful job" turn right around and criticise the municipal government of NO and LA.

The Federal government built and is responsible for the levy system that protects NO. Officials have complained for years and pointed out this is a disaster of epic scale waiting to happen if the Feds didn't do something to correct it. What did they get. Bush, cut the funding to fix the levies and also cut the funding to Fema. The disaster rests solely on his head. But hey, Baghdad is looking great these days. (except when it gets blown up again)

I think it is a sad day in America that we somehow might justify the suffering of thousands of people because a few people might be breaking the law in a desparate situation.

[goodbye]

One thing I've thought about while watching some of the stranded people cry for help, is that it isn't as easy as just sending everyone into the city from all directions because roads and other infrastructure have been destroyed or blocked by tons of dibris. The situation has been made far worse by the careless manner in which gangs of thugs are wreaking havoc on the helpers' efforts. In any case, there will be 30,000 troops there today, if I remember correctly. Order WILL be restored and these people who can't see that there is an entire Globe full of others (including President Bush) pouring out their support, will be brought to safety and given the ability to start a new life. God Bless the U.S.A.!

[Charleston native]

And the situation is not anywhere close to being the  same there either.  NO is a densely packed urban area as compared to the places in Mississippi.  I think the Mayor has the absolute right to declare an SOS when there are tens of thousands of people in danger, dying, starving and there is no plan to evacuate them out of the place.  Its the Federal Government's job to help and assist in these times of national emergencies and they have completely failed in this matter.  And I find it amazing who people who say. "Oh Don't Criticize Bush, he is doing a wonderful job"  turn right around and criticise the municipal government of NO and LA. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The mayor is a complete wuss and moron. Instead of taking control of the situation, all he has been able to do is whine and complain that nobody is helping them, which is complete BS. The cities of Gulfport, Biloxi and Mobile, while not as big as New Orleans, have a substantial population, and some of the population are just as impoverished as the people in NO. However, they're not experiencing the complete lawlessness and looting on any levels similar to New Orleans. Why? Because those state governors and mayors have been competant enough to establish control of their areas.

The Federal government built and is responsible for the levy system that protects NO.  Officials have complained for years and pointed out this is a disaster of epic scale waiting to happen if the Feds didn't do something to correct it.  What did they get.  Bush, cut the funding to fix the levies and also cut the funding to Fema.  The disaster rests solely on his head.  But hey, Baghdad is looking great these days.  (except when it gets blown up again)

This is correct to a degree. The federal ACE built the levee system, but for 4 decades, no improvements to upgrade it were given appropriate funds. On top of that, there was no established local initiative to strenghten the levees. If the federal government can't do it, why couldn't the local and state governments appropriate any funds?

I think it is a sad day in America that we somehow might justify the suffering of thousands of people because a few people might be breaking the law in a desparate situation.

The situation is very sad. It is disgusting. However, it is far from justified. The problem is, if they just ignore the problem of looters and snipers, more lives will be endangered, and the aid will suffer. For crying out loud, man, snipers are shooting at helicopters flying in water and shooting at hospitals!!!!!

[monsoon]

The mayor is a complete wuss and moron. Instead of taking control of the situation, all he has been able to do is whine and complain that nobody is helping them, which is complete BS. The cities of Gulfport, Biloxi and Mobile, while not as big as New Orleans, have a substantial population, and some of the population are just as impoverished as the people in NO...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We are talking an order of magnitude difference in these places.

Biloxi - 50K

Gulfport - 71K

New Orleans - 500K

And the population density of NO is also much much higher. Pack tens of thousands in a small area in a desparate situation and you are going to have civil breakdown. There are more people in the NO Civic Center and Superdome than what is left in Biloxi and Gulfport combined.

Tell me. Since you consider the Mayor a complete wuss & moron, what would you do if you were the Mayor of a city with upwards of 200 thousand people trapped inside, you have no effective police force, no communications, no roads, no power, virtually every facility available as Mayor to fix the situation destroyed. How would you handle the situation differently so people would not call you a wuss and a moron? I would be interested to hear what you would do beyond sending up an SOS.

[Plasticman]

The guardmen being flown in today are made up of a lot of battle hardened Iraq veterens who have orders to shoot to kill and are quite capable and willing to do so. These city thugs and hoodlums don't have a clue as to what is about to happen to them. The looting WILL be in control quickly.

As for rebuilding the city...yes rebuild it but NOT there. The pollution alone is going to be a toxic waste sit in that city for far more years than citizens are willing to wait for the slow cleanup. Either New Orleans will be rebuilt on higher ground or it should not be rebuilt. And stronger dykes are NOT the answer. It's just more infrastructure to have to maintain and fail later. Anytime you build against the laws of physics, something has to give either through extra money to maintain it or more devastation. Either of those choices are stupid since higher ground isn't that far away.

[Charleston native]

We are talking an order of magnitude difference in these places.

Biloxi - 50K

Gulfport - 71K

New Orleans - 500K

And the population density of NO is also much much higher.    Pack tens of thousands in a small area in a desparate situation and you are going to have civil breakdown.  There are more people in the NO Civic Center and Superdome than what is left in Biloxi and Gulfport combined. 

Tell me.  Since you consider the Mayor a complete wuss & moron, what would you do if you were the Mayor of a city with upwards of 200 thousand people trapped inside,  you have no effective police force, no communications, no roads, no power, virtually every facility available as Mayor to fix the situation destroyed.    How would you handle the situation differently so people would not call you a wuss and a moron?  I would be interested to hear what you would do beyond sending up an SOS.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The population figures are correct, but let's think about something here. The ENTIRE metropolitan area was ORDERED (not told, or suggested) to evacuate, and many people did not. A competant mayor would have a hurricane evacuation plan if he had any foresight at all. If there are people who are unable to evacuate, transit buses and other means of transportation should have been used to get them out. The mayor needs to know exactly what to do in a worse-case scenario, and he is showing just how many dumb choices he made.

Population density should not matter if more people evacuated. Effective communication? There was at least 2 days to adequately prepare infrastructure and emergency communication systems for police officers. Sheesh, you can't even rely on some of the police...eyewitnesses reported 2 uniformed officers participating in the looting.

The mayor also erred on the side of political correctness by not authorizing use of deadly force sooner. Many cops were seen just looking at looters carrying TVs, jewelry, appliances. One cop was shot by a sniper during the looting, and yet nothing was done. The mayor was worried about how he looked politically, EVEN when leadership was BADLY needed. Does that help?

[monsoon]

Does that help?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You did not answer my question.

[A2]

And the situation is not anywhere close to being the

[Cotuit]

The mayor is a complete wuss and moron.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hope your god has mercy on you if you ever find yourself in a situation anything like the people in New Orleans find themselves in. You disgust me.

[A2]

This says it all. A qoute from the mayor of NO

Nagin said the time has long past for federal authorities to act on their promises.

"You mean to tell me that a place where you probably have thousands of people that have died and thousands more that are dying every day, that we can't figure out a way to authorize the resources that we need? Come on man," he said.

A2

source is from CNN

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/09/02/katrina.nagin/index.html

[Charleston native]

I hope your god has mercy on you if you ever find yourself in a situation anything like the people in New Orleans find themselves in. You disgust me.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Um, why? Because I see how the mayor has reacted and make an observation on it? I have not made a single disparaging statement about the people of New Orleans. Oh yes, I will pray to GOD that the people of New Orleans will be helped and comforted through this terrible time. Some of ya'll need to control your emotions.

monsoon, I thought I did answer the question using the examples of what the NO mayor did not do. I would: provide a detailed evac plan including using mass transit systems for the elderly or disabled to leave (by the way, Riverside was right, there were many cars flooded throughout the streets, hence, these people DIDN'T evacuate), use the 2-3 days prior to the hurricane landing to establish emergency communication systems for police and firemen, coordinate with the governor to allow for contraflow to all lanes of interstates and major highways to allow the maximum amount of vehicles for evacuation (and this would be done as far up as Shreveport, if necessary), and authorize use of deadly force 1 day after the hurricane (at the most!) for looting and other criminal activities. How's that?

[Dale]

My take on Nagin is that he is an otherwise-capable mayor who: (1) had no real plan for an event of such magnitude and (2) is overwhelmed by events and is projecting both understandable frustration and guilt.

[monsoon]

monsoon, I thought I did answer the question using the examples of what the NO mayor did not do. ....How's that?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You accused the mayor of being a moron and a wuss for sending out an SOS. My question is what in the hell else do you expect him to do? His city is destroyed and he has no resources. Your response completely ignores the situation is callous and also completlely ignores the failures of FEMA, HomeLand Security and Bush to deal with the situation.

When the best that Bush can do is give a speech about Iraq a day after the storm while continuing his vacation during this natural disaster, then he has failed the people. Quit making excuses for him and faulting the Mayor for this post storm mess. Bush has every resource of this country at his disposal to fix this problem, the mayor has nothing.

I applauded the Mayor for doing what he can to save lives.

[monsoon]

As a disgusting side note. The Republican Speaker of the House found it more important this morning to attend a republican politcal fund raiser in Indiana this morning, rather than go to Washington and spearhead fund relief for LA. These people make me sick in their total disregard for the common people.

[monsoon]

How the rest of the world sees us. This Link It should be noted these people are our allies.

[Florida]

When the best that Bush can do is give a speech about Iraq a day after the storm while continuing his vacation during this natural disaster, then he has failed the people.