What Metro county will reach the million mark 1st?

[Newnan]

THis is a tough one for me. I'd say It's between Fulton and Gwinnett. Fulton has more people now and is beginning to have a steady increase in population. Gwinnett doesn't have as many people but is growing by leaps and bounds. What do you think?

[ironchapman]

Gwinnett or Cobb...they're booming. I voted for Gwinnett

Welcome to the forum, Newnan, BTW.

[Newnan]

Thanks ironchapman, I'm really enjoying it!

[krazeeboi]

Gwinnett was actually the first county that came to mind when I saw the title of this poll. When I looked at the latest statistics, I couldn't believe it's actually that populous. Talk about SPRAWL.

[ironchapman]

Gwinnett was actually the first county that came to mind when I saw the title of this poll. When I looked at the latest statistics, I couldn't believe it's actually that populous. Talk about SPRAWL.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

^Indeed. There are only three counties have such high populations in the Metro that have some measure of urbanity, Cobb (Marietta has long been one of the few significant pre-sprawl urban cores here), Fulton (Atlanta is here and so is some of North Fulton shouldbe taken into account), and DeKalb (right next door to Atlanta with several pre-sprawl urban cores).

Out of that list, I'd say that Fulton is the only one that deserves toi be over 1 mil.

And to think that Gwinnett's commish wants Lawrenceville (its seat) to be greater than Atlanta.

[Lady Celeste]

If the ARC numbers are correct and Fulton County can prove that the census numbers are not totally correct then that could place Fulton County at slightly above 900,000. The city center is growing...probably about 2,000 or more residents a year and northern and southern Fulton are growing as well. Zip codes 30331, 30349 and 30213 are very fast growing southern Fulton County zips. Mush of northern Fulton County is growing as well.....there are just too many zips to list. This could lead one to say Fulton County has a great chance.

One cannot however discount Gwinnett. First, and Teshadoh probably could either prove this correct or wrong, but I think Gwinnett County land wish is larger than Fulton County. Also there are still thousands of acres of eastern and extreme northern Gwinnett that are still undeveloped. GA316 offers "easy access" to eastern Gwinnett. I can remember when 316 opened. I could get from school to home within 50 minutes from Athens. (I used to be a fast driver).

Gwinnett also has the momentum necessary for fast growth. It offers great interstate and state road access (I-85, I-985 and GA 316). It has a plethora of shopping options. The Mall of Georgia is fabulous. It has the new civic center in Lawrenceville which plays host to many events that some larger cities don't even the pleasure to hold. It has the relatively inexpensive housing and a decent school system. It also has alot more diverse demographic than many people think. There is a water tower just north of Jimmy Carter Blvd off of I-85 that says "Gwinnett is Great." If nothing else it's momentum is great and therefore it could quite possibly become Georgia's most populous county.

[teshadoh]

Off the top of my head - I think Fulton is a bit larger, but Gwinnett is no Rockdale.

I still think Fulton will etch out over Gwinnett - perhaps just barely. Other than that, it will be a long time until Dekalb or Cobb hits 1 million. Both counties are nearing built out - which for Atlanta metro standards means low density.

[Martinman]

Fulton is the largest county in the state in land area but Gwinnett is one of the largest and growing at about 25k people/year. Think about this ....Fulton is a part of the affluent northside AND the long neglected southside. I think those would be the only ones coming close anytime soon because as teshadoh said, Dekalb and Cobb are mostly built out and are already seeing slowing population growth at around 700k. Cobb has slowed down a lot since the 90's.

[ironchapman]

Fulton is the largest county in the state in land area but Gwinnett is one of the largest and growing at about 25k people/year.

[Martinman]

Actually, Ware County is the largest in land area. (948 sq. mi. as opposed to Fulton's 528) Ther than that, I agree.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ooops I meant to say in the metro area. There are several larger counties in the state.

[ironchapman]

Ah, I see what you mean now.

Fulton is very big for a North Georgia County, though, but most of that size is due to its merger. Is it the largest above the Fall line?

[krazeeboi]

It's easy to see that Gwinnett yet has land to be developed. Driving into the county from I-85 from Greenville, it seems as though it doesn't give off a metro Atlanta feel until one gets to the civic center/Discover Mills area. Barrow County (I think it's Barrow), adjacent to Gwinnett to the east, is largely rural and that seems to hold true for a good bit of eastern Gwinnett as well--which unfortunately means that it's ripe for low-density sprawl, as if the county needed any more cookie-cutter subdivisions.

[krazeeboi]

Ah, I see what you mean now.

Fulton is very big for a North Georgia County, though, but most of that size is due to its merger. Is it the largest above the Fall line?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree. It seems to be a bit of a drive from the Roswell/Alpharetta area into the city. Fulton is more long and narrow than it is wide.

[Scraper Enthusiast]

It's easy to see that Gwinnett yet has land to be developed. Driving into the county from I-85 from Greenville, it seems as though it doesn't give off a metro Atlanta feel until one gets to the civic center/Discover Mills area. Barrow County (I think it's Barrow), adjacent to Gwinnett to the east, is largely rural and that seems to hold true for a good bit of eastern Gwinnett as well--which unfortunately means that it's ripe for low-density sprawl, as if the county needed any more cookie-cutter subdivisions.

Actually, the Metro Atlanta feel, in my opinion, starts at the Suwanee exit, and, to less of an extent, the Mall of Georgia exit.

[krazeeboi]

You have a point there. From what I've seen, traffic doesn't pick up significantly until you're about halfway into Gwinnett, which is why I said that. Obviously coming into Atlanta from I-20, right before you get into Conyers is when you get a "metro" feel.

[ryanmckibben]

here's one for everyone to chew on. In the short term I believe both counties will continue to grow, but mid to long term, I see Gwinnett as well as most if n ot all of the exurban counties, losing population. Not sure what will happen to Cobb, as it does have some established urban centers, namely Marietta. Fulton, in particular Atlanta and possibly Sandy Springs (if they can pull it off), and DeKalb, in particular Decatur, will see fairly dramatic increases in population. I wonder why I might think this?

[Newnan]

why???

[teshadoh]

Gwinnett isn't GOING TO (per ironchapman) losing population, if there is some indication of an economic decline - then the population will increase even more. Gwinnett County has already become home for many lower income families in the Norcross area, as the substandard suburban housing continues to deteriorate, only increased population will occur due to lower costs.

If Sandy Springs does what many civic leaders want - a population loss, there is a huge prejudice against the lower income apartment complexes along Roswell Rd. If those go or are somehow upgraded to being more exculsive, a population loss will occur. There are a lot of large families living in those complexes.

[ironchapman]

Gwinnett isn't losing population, if there is some indication of an economic decline - then the population will increase even more. Gwinnett County has already become home for many lower income families in the Norcross area, as the substandard suburban housing continues to deteriorate, only increased population will occur due to lower costs.

I think he was speaking of Gwinnett in the future tense.

[95-Souf]

Fulton: ........ 816,006 (2000) ....818,320 (2003)

Gwinnette:... 587,000 (2000) ....700,794 (2004)

DeKalb.........665,865 (2000) ....675,725 (2004)

Cobb............607,751 (2000) ....654,005 (2004)

I would have to say Gwinnette County.

Not only because its high growth rate, but the potiential for growth.

[Promia]

Fulton: ........ 816,006 (2000) ....818,320 (2003)

Gwinnette:... 587,000 (2000) ....700,794 (2004)

DeKalb.........665,865 (2000) ....675,725 (2004)

Cobb............607,751 (2000) ....654,005 (2004)

I would have to say Gwinnette County.

Not only because its high growth rate, but the potiential for growth.

Gwinett by far will reach the million mark 1st as well as take the status of most pop. county in Ga w/in 10 years! For such a dense county Gwinett continues to be a leader in pop. gain in the metro. 2 major contributing factors to this include: extremely pro development county and biggest influx of asian and hispanic immigrants; which is fast becoming the largest immigrant groups to the metro. Even in the 25 year census, Gwinett remains a strong contender in metro growth; with an overall pop. gain of well over 300k. If you look at the numbers, the intown influx isn't that significant and does'nt take up a large chunk of the 100k annual pop. gain throughout ATL! Fulton will hit the 1mil+ status be4 any other metro counties except Gwinett; Gwinett w/in 15-20yrs and Fulton 20-25 yrs. Of course I can see an overall pop. gain of much more than 2.3 mil; once the economy picks back up and transportation improves.

[Martinman]

Gwinett by far will reach the million mark 1st as well as take the status of most pop. county in Ga w/in 10 years! For such a dense county Gwinett continues to be a leader in pop. gain in the metro. 2 major contributing factors to this include: extremely pro development county and biggest influx of asian and hispanic immigrants; which is fast becoming the largest immigrant groups to the metro. Even in the 25 year census, Gwinett remains a strong contender in metro growth; with an overall pop. gain of well over 300k. If you look at the numbers, the intown influx isn't that significant and does'nt take up a large chunk of the 100k annual pop. gain throughout ATL! Fulton will hit the 1mil+ status be4 any other metro counties except Gwinett; Gwinett w/in 15-20yrs and Fulton 20-25 yrs. Of course I can see an overall pop. gain of much more than 2.3 mil; once the economy picks back up and transportation improves.

It will not take 20 years for Fulton to reach one million. Remember those mid decade numbers are estimates. And because of the way the census does its estimates, we can't be sure how fast its growing but the ARC estimates Fulton's population to be around 900,000 right now.

Fulton is not just growing because of the growth intown. The northside of the county continues to grow and south Fulton, which has a large amount of undeveloped land, is finally seeing significant development. Fulton grew by 25% between 1990 and 2000, an average of @16000 annually and theres no reason to expect that its growth came to a sudden screeching halt in 2000. In fact I would expect Fulton's growth to accelerate a little once more of the south side developments start to come online while Gwinnetts growth will begin to slow in the next decade as undeveloped land runs out.

[teshadoh]

I think he was speaking of Gwinnett in the future tense.

Correct, as I was.

Martinman, it's Fulton County's own population estimate that is near 900k, ARC's is around 850k, with the Census estimate around 800k. Huge discrepancy.

[Martinman]

^^Thanks for clearing that up.

I caught the end of something on the news about this saying that the census agrees that the estimate is inaccurate. Will this be reflected in the estimate next year?

[teshadoh]

^ Yes they have - they actually went with Fulton County's estimate, in addition to practically every other municipality's estimate. I don't know when the website will reflect the modified estimates, but it makes you wonder what is going on with the Census Bureau, especially with their new American Survey program .