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Lady Celeste

Imagine 2.3 mill ppl moving to ur state in 25 yrs.

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Atlanta will be bracing for an influx of new citizens. It will have to rethink development trends and patterns. I know we as a metro are up for the challenge. There will need to be strong visionaries to led the governments that make up the metro area. Public transportation and denser development will have move closer to the top of concerns for citizens of metro Atlanta. I suppose we all will have to alter our thoughts of the "American Dream."

New vision for metro area takes hold.

From the article:

Driving that redefinition are forecasts that show an additional 2.3 million people will live here in 2030. That would be like dropping the entire population of Denver into the midst of 3.7 million residents already in Atlanta's 10-county core area.
.......and the 3.7 million is from the 2000 census. :unsure:

Choices made today will go a long way to determining future mobility issues and other aspects of living in a city with a projected population of more than 6 million residents

Hum, you got that right. I sure hope all the political and civic leaders read today's AJC and definitely read this article.

The article is an interesting read.

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Let's see...........

Conservative Estimate:

If 1 out of 10 of those people moving to the metro over 25 years move to Atlanta proper, that would make a 2030 population of

420,000 current pop + 230,000 new arrivals = 650,000.

Liberal Estimate:

If 1 out of 4 of those people moving to the metro over 25 years move to Atlanta proper, that would make a 2030 population of

420,000 current pop + 575,000 new arrivals = 995,000.

Yeah Right Estimate:

If 1 out of 2 of those people moving to the metro over 25 years move to Atlanta proper, that would make a 2030 population of

420,000 current pop + 1,150,000 new arrivals = 1,570,000.

If I had to guess I would say somewhere between the conservative and liberal estimates......then again with the new developments and transit options proposed intown, it could be just north of the liberal estimate.

But that's just my thinking.......could be right............could be wrong.

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Choices made today will go a long way to determining future mobility issues and other aspects of living in a city with a projected population of more than 6 million residents

Let's hope theymake the right choices about transit.

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In 25 years, who can say as other places will be growing too. The USA is growing fast from foreign immigration.

7.3 million spread over 10,000 sq miles (current size of ATL metro) is not that impressive as this only works out to 730 people/sq-mile. I would hope that over the next 25 years they do something to contain the sprawl not continue to let it spread across northern Ga and eastern Ala.

In 25 years the ATL metro could be a nice urban city with high density, or endless cul-de-sac neighborhoods spread over farmland. Which one will it be?

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Remember that the 2.3 million is forecasted for the 10 county ARC region. So it would be more than that if you include the non-ARC portion of the metro. Not to mention, ARC population forecasts are always conservative - as they have been in the past. Though it's still uncertain if Atlanta's pollution, traffic, or economy will render the metro area unfavorable in the future - I would otherwise suggest the population will be greater.

Again - David Pendered (the writer of the article) failed to acknowledge the population forecast is based on ARC planning area - which is currently estimated at 3,813,700. With 2.3 million, which so far has already surpassed what was forecasted at this year - this would be 6.1 million. This is why ARC has named their project Envision 6, which is to prepare Atlanta for the year 2030.

For more info read about Envision 6 from the ARC:

http://www.atlreg.com/transportationair/envision6.html

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In 25 years the ATL metro could be a nice urban city with high density, or endless cul-de-sac neighborhoods spread over farmland. Which one will it be?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

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Plus that 10,000 sq miles is based on commuting patterns and not on sprawl.  One thing I noticed when looking at the new metro map is that the 8 counties added to the metro since the 2000 census, now 28 counties, have a population of 27000 or less. 

Rounded 2003 estimates

Haralson 27,000

Meriwether 23,000

Butts 22,000

Dawson 18,000

Lamar 16,000

Pike 15,000

Jasper 13,000

Heard 11,000

These counties are very rural and such small population makes it relatively easy for commuting patterns to trigger inclusion into the metro area.

Additionally, I think it should be a forgone conclusion that without dramatic change in the way we develop, this amount of growth will be unlikely to happen.  Fortunately I think we're already seeing a major shift in attitudes about smart growth, transit, etc and the fact that this much growth is projected just for the 13-county ARC region suggests a lot more density.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You are right - the forecast region is for 13 counties, not just the core 10 county ARC area. As for those additional counties, not even including the 5 other CSA counties - I think it is the correct assumption that these aren't 'Atlanta' metro in any sense. They have economic dependance on Atlanta, but these are the true exurban counties - they simply lack their own economy in which to support themselves.

What I would like OMB to go back to - is a metro area that is more dependant on counties with urban ties to the central city, not simply economic ties. Anyways - that could be discussed another time...

monsoon - certainly we can hope Atlanta will indeed develop in a more centralized manner. As I hope Charlotte may as well too but for both of these cities what we we likely see is a hybrid between sprawling metro areas & a relatively vibrant urban core. It most likely won't be either or, fortunately at this point Atlanta has in the past 10 years developed an urban core that is populated in Downtown & Midtown as well as adjoining neighborhoods that have repopulated & additional urban infill is occuring in all directions.

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Butts 22,000

Lamar 16,000

Pike 15,000

Jasper 13,000

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How in the hayull did these counties end up in Atlanta's metro? Pike and Lamar are relatively close, but Jasper and Butts? And are there really that many people communting to Atlanta from these counties? I guess if people will commute from Dahlonega, they're commute from there, too.

In any case, this is all the more reason for counties to start building up rather than out. Perhaps the revitalization in the city will convince more people to move Intown as well. We really need to start pushing this with the metro's city leaders.

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Let's see...........

Conservative Estimate:

If 1 out of 10 of those people moving to the metro over 25 years move to Atlanta proper, that would make a 2030 population of

420,000 current pop + 230,000 new arrivals = 650,000.

Liberal Estimate:

If 1 out of 4 of those people moving to the metro over 25 years move to Atlanta proper, that would make a 2030 population of

420,000 current pop + 575,000 new arrivals = 995,000.

Yeah Right Estimate:

If 1 out of 2 of those people moving to the metro over 25 years move to Atlanta proper, that would make a 2030 population of

420,000 current pop + 1,150,000 new arrivals = 1,570,000.

If I had to guess I would say somewhere between the conservative and liberal estimates......then again with the new developments and transit options proposed intown, it could be just north of the liberal estimate.

But that's just my thinking.......could be right............could be wrong.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think the city's getting fairly dense already as population growth is fairly static in the city. There will be more multistory infill development but you would have to think most of the population gain will be suburban.

Atlanta Population estimates per census.gov

2004 2000

419,122 416,474

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How in the hayull did these counties end up in Atlanta's metro? Pike and Lamar are relatively close, but Jasper and Butts? And are there really that many people communting to Atlanta from these counties? I guess if people will commute from Dahlonega, they're commute from there, too.

In any case, this is all the more reason for counties to start building up rather than out. Perhaps the revitalization in the city will convince more people to move Intown as well. We really need to start pushing this with the metro's city leaders.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not all of these counties are commuting into Atlanta proper, but to Gwinnett, Cobb & even Coweta.

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Not all of these counties are commuting into Atlanta proper, but to Gwinnett, Cobb & even Coweta.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Atlanta proper is closer to Jasper, Butts, Pike and Lamar than any of counties. I supposed people do what they have to do to live, but wouldn't it be easier to just live in those counties. They aren't considerably more expensive. Goodness. I feel so sorry for the people having to commute that far.

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Atlanta proper is closer to Jasper, Butts, Pike and Lamar than any of counties. I supposed people do what they have to do to live, but wouldn't it be easier to just live in those counties. They aren't considerably more expensive. Goodness. I feel so sorry for the people having to commute that far.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

For those counties - you are right, what I mean though is many of these metro Atlanta county residents that are on the fringe exurbs don't always drive to the CBD. Most of these employees are blue collar & work in the service / retail sector & aren't office workers. They work at the Walmart in Newnan or are plumbers in Peachtree City or more likely at the Airport or the various warehouses surrounding the airport.

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Awesome article , Lady Celeste .

I don't see how Gwinnett , Cobb , Douglas and the other Atlanta suburban counties can keep up their lack of cooperation about transit options , SOMETHING has to be done , something should have been done a long time ago , but better late than never...

Tides

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How in the hayull did these counties end up in Atlanta's metro? Pike and Lamar are relatively close, but Jasper and Butts? And are there really that many people communting to Atlanta from these counties? I guess if people will commute from Dahlonega, they're commute from there, too.

In any case, this is all the more reason for counties to start building up rather than out. Perhaps the revitalization in the city will convince more people to move Intown as well. We really need to start pushing this with the metro's city leaders.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Tell me about it. I never even heard of some of those counties before they wound up a part of the metro.

Not all of these counties are commuting into Atlanta proper, but to Gwinnett, Cobb & even Coweta.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

To be considered a part of the metro, doesn't the 25% commute have to be to the "core" of the metro which I believe the census defines as Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, Dekalb and Clayton?

I think the city's getting fairly dense already as population growth is fairly static in the city.

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Well Pike County is a mid point county which commute to Atlanta, Columbus, and Macon, which are almost the same driving distance between each city, and could have been any of them metro, plus the county itself is seeing a big population growth. <_<

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monsoon - certainly we can hope Atlanta will indeed develop in a more centralized manner.  As I hope Charlotte may as well too but for both of these cities what we we likely see is a hybrid between sprawling metro areas & a relatively vibrant urban core.  It most likely won't be either or, fortunately at this point Atlanta has in the past 10 years developed an urban core that is populated in Downtown & Midtown as well as adjoining neighborhoods that have repopulated & additional urban infill is occuring in all directions.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why bring Charlotte into this? I don't see what it has to do with 2.3 million moving to ATL. Whatever the answer, I don't think the two are developing in the same manner. Mecklenburg has 3 counties that adjoin it that are not counted as parts of CLT's MSA. In other words they have independent economies that don't depend much on their location to CLT.

I am interested to know where the 2.3 million are likely to end up in ATL over the next 25 years.

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monsoon - I bring Charlotte into it to relate to you of course, as well as my long standing belief that both have developed in a similar pattern (for different sized cities) & both are reengineering urban development where there previously was none. None of that has to have anything to do with any specific population figure, it is a matter of how these cities have developed in the past & how they are to develop in the future.

As for those 3 counties - they aren't that independant, they are very much nearing MSA status. As you are familiar with southern Iredell Co, the same is happening & will continue to happen with western Stanley & northern Lancaster.

Sorry monsoon - Charlotte is soaking in it too ;)

metroinspect. - Pike County has an astoundishing 76% out commute rate, 31% alone commutes to Spalding Co. Because Spalding Co is in Atlanta's MSA - that alone justifies that county being in Atlanta MSA, based on MSA definition.

martinman - No - as Pike County is an example, that county doesn't have to do anything with Atlanta's urban core. Which explains why MSA / CSA boundaries can be highly inflated. If a neighboring county lacks a local economy, they can be tagged on as well. It's happening in SC & NC as well. Many of the metro area's counties aren't neccessarily urban, but enough commute out of county for work. Gone are many of the mill or farm jobs that used to employ those in rural areas, they now have to drive out of county to work in a suburban Walmart for pay. Unfortunately it's a sign of the modern American economy - service oriented.

Martinman - Also keep in mind those relatively 'static' population figures for a city like Atlanta, or other cities also indicates gentrification. The household numbers have increased but the families have moved out, replacing them are singles or young couples (my wife & I replaced up to 10 people in our home).

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Now, now, now Mr monsoon.....you know I'm going to have to spank you for this post hun. :P

In 25 years, who can say as other places will be growing too.  The USA is growing fast from foreign immigration.

You are correct, other places will be growing as well. I truly hope these places write articles about their prespective city's growth as did the AJC for the Atlanta metro.

7.3 million spread over 10,000 sq miles (current size of ATL metro) is not that impressive as this only works out to 730 people/sq-mile.  I would hope that over the next 25 years they do something to contain the sprawl not continue to let it spread across northern Ga and eastern Ala. 
I beg to differ. I have been in Atlanta for a very very very long time. I remember when Atlanta's 10 county metro (and I use 10 county metro because this is the region specifically named in the article) was barely 2 million. That was not all that long ago. It is impressive for anybody being honest to see a place they remember being much smaller being much larger. It's amazing to see how this midsized regional city has blossomed.

I mean even a state going from 3.7 million to 6 million is impressive. In 25 years that's almost like doubling your population.

From my prespective I don't know if that many people moving here is a good thing or a bad thing.

I know this is UrbanPlanet and I like the urban experience but I don't know if I like being packed in like sardines. I'm working on my need for acerage. When I shared this article with my husband he said "well we will be long gone by then. I'm sure we won't have this issue in Montana." This man is hell bent on buying a 300+ acre ranch in Montana. Get this, he's from Pittsburgh. If it wasn't for my parents being here and my strong attachment to them, he would have moved us to a smaller place a long time ago.

He doesn't understand that we already agreed to move to Boca. B)

In 25 years the ATL metro could be a nice urban city with high density, or endless cul-de-sac neighborhoods spread over farmland.  Which one will it be?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think that this is why this article was written because now is the time for Atlanta and her surrounding municipalties to forge foward to insuring a thriving and livable city.

P.S.- Where do you guys get the 10,000 square mile figure? Is that the MSA, CSA, ARC? I see it often but I don't know where that information can be obtained.

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As long as we have to depend on the NCDOT for roads,  we do not have to worry about our MSA as big as Atlanta. :rolleyes:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ha! :) But imagine this hellish scenario - imagine in the future a prosperous Monroe NC, with miles & miles of shopping malls & office parks. Or not even office parks, maybe just warehouses - then people in Wadesboro don't have any industrial jobs or the area has no farms to work on, so they drive to Monroe for work. Duplicate for all the suburban counties - that is what has happened to north Georgia.

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P.S.- Where do you guys get the 10,000 square mile figure? Is that the MSA, CSA, ARC? I see it often but I don't know where that information can be obtained.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I believe we are using the CSA estimates for this.

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I believe we are using the CSA estimates for this.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If that's the case then the article does not say nor imply that the 2.3 million people would be moving to the CSA....it said metro.

Can someone give me the square miles for Atlanta's metro.....not it's CSA? So that's where you guys were getting that 7.3 million figure. I was wondering because my calculations were coming up with 6 million.

I think Teshadoh already provided information and a link to the article but I'll do it again so people will not confuse which area is being noted.

Envision 6: Planning for a Region of 6 Million

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