My population rank estimates

[peaceloveunderstanding]

But, to continue my last post, no one I know in the South East wants to move up to the MidWest or the North (except maybe to NYC). There will most likely continue to be a net loss up there. They have lost a few already, a big chunk of my extended family. Weather and economic oppurtunity seem to be the biggest issues. Fortunatly economic oppurtunity can be created but alas the weather can't really change.

[rusthebuss]

The problem with that is some of the cities have huge land and aren't really that dense so its a little bit deceiving. Like Phoenix has over a million in the city but only 2.something in the metro? Atlanta has a little over 400K in the city but around 5 million in the metro. I think lists by the city are crap!

[TheBostonian]

The problem with that is some of the cities have huge land and aren't really that dense so its a little bit deceiving. Like Phoenix has over a million in the city but only 2.something in the metro? Atlanta has a little over 400K in the city but around 5 million in the metro. I think lists by the city are crap!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes! Houston type cities will grow because they contain hundreds of square miles outside their urban core. Similar growth for cities with less than 100 sq miles like Boston, DC and SF will occur outside the city proper.

[peaceloveunderstanding]

The problem with that is some of the cities have huge land and aren't really that dense so its a little bit deceiving. Like Phoenix has over a million in the city but only 2.something in the metro? Atlanta has a little over 400K in the city but around 5 million in the metro. I think lists by the city are crap!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Phoenix is actually a bit bigger then you think 3,715,360. I do agree that these lists are dumb though. Atlanta is a case in point as well is Miami.

[rusthebuss]

Sorry, but you got my point

[Spartan]

^  But unless you have GIS software, projecting urban area populations is very difficult.  I can't even do that, the data is based on the block level & then you would have to add any additional blocks that hit that 1k per square mile.

Counties are more static.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is true. Urban growth modelling is a complicated processes. There are so many factors to consider that it alsmot boggles the mind. The census definitions are based on a certain density I think. Urban area is the best way to compare cities to each other, but then it comes to estimating growth, it is probably not.

What we have to do in this case is estimate based on past trends. What that list shows is essientiall an opinion of what will happen.

[RiverwoodCLT]

Let see what happens after 2012 first. I hear a lot of earth changes could occur around this time. Some cities on this list might not be here in 2030.

Really a lot can happen to change populations in cities that we do not see now.

Cities could annex lots of people or go under water like New Orleans.

It is hard to tell what the population will do. Pass performance does not guarantee

future performance.

[RiversideGator]

Let see what happens after 2012 first. I hear a lot of earth changes could occur around this time. Some cities on this list might not be here in 2030. silly.png

Umm, ok.

[hudkina]

The problem with that is some of the cities have huge land and aren't really that dense so its a little bit deceiving. Like Phoenix has over a million in the city but only 2.something in the metro? Atlanta has a little over 400K in the city but around 5 million in the metro. I think lists by the city are crap!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually Phoenix has a denser core than Atlanta. If you expanded the boundary of either city to 600 sq. mi., Phoenix would have a population of 2.6 million, while Atlanta would have a population of 1.9 million.

[MJLO]

all the same, the Phoenix metro area, is Maricopa county, It's larger than the state of New Jersey, which has eight and a half million people.

[hudkina]

Actually the Phoenix MSA is Maricopa county and Pinal County. The MSA has a population of 3,251,876 in an area 14,568.9 sq. mi. (as of 2000.)

However, it's unfair to compare Phoenix to New Jersey, especially when the majority of the Phoenix MSA is unpopulated, while New Jersey has major population areas across the entire state. The Phoenix MSA may be nearly 15,000 sq. mi. but 93% of the population lives on less than 10% of the land area. In other words, over 3 million of the Phoenix MSA residents live in just 1,300 sq. mi. The other 13,300 sq. mi. is just desert and mountains with small pockets of population.

[daniel18]

Actually Phoenix has a denser core than Atlanta.  If you expanded the boundary of either city to 600 sq. mi., Phoenix would have a population of 2.6 million, while Atlanta would have a population of 1.9 million.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep. Phoenix's Urban Area is also denser than Atlanta's.

[*Sweetkisses*]

As much as I hate to admit it, in the year 2030 philly and new york will come together as one metro. Its basically there now. philly isnt getting out of the top ten anytime soon. Its always been in the top ten.

[cheeriokid61]

I doubt that they will become an MSA. Maybe a CSA, but not an MSA.

[satalac]

I have yet to meet anybody from around here that wants to move to Atlanta or Houston.  I know quite a few people that want to move to Florida or the West Coast, and even more that want to move to Chicago or New York, but no future Atlantans or Houstonians.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

that doesn't mean they don't exist.

[cheeriokid61]

Oh yes, I know. But we will probably never see their populations combined into one.

[dragonfly]

I have yet to meet anybody from around here that wants to move to Atlanta or Houston.  I know quite a few people that want to move to Florida or the West Coast, and even more that want to move to Chicago or New York, but no future Atlantans or Houstonians.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I've lived in Houston for 16 years and have no great loyalty to the place. People who move here mostly come for the business opportunity, not like in Austin for the local culture and environs. The large cities of Texas, excepting Austin, are among the most pro-business in the nation, thus the rapid growth and Red state status. I mean, there's nothing like RESULTS for influencing a region's political outlook. Funny though how I have most loyalty to Austin and lived there twice. And for a city that puts up roadblocks to business and growth, it's amazing how fast it has grown (35% metro between '80 and '85)

[daniel18]

To all those yapping on about metro areas, this thread has absolutely nothing to do with that; this thread is about city proper only. Stop derailing my damn thread.

[satalac]

To all those yapping on about metro areas, this thread has absolutely nothing to do with that; this thread is about city proper only. Stop derailing my damn thread.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

whoa there. chill out man. it's just a thread.

[facilities man]

To all those yapping on about metro areas, this thread has absolutely nothing to do with that; this thread is about city proper only. Stop derailing my damn thread.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How can you compare a small geographic city with a county / city merged city of thousands of square miles? It's like comparing Rhode Island to Texas.

[daniel18]

How can you compare a small geographic city with a county / city merged city of thousands of square miles? It's like comparing Rhode Island to Texas.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am aware of that, but this thread was not made to discuss that; if you want to do so, start a new one.

[PeninsulaKiddo]

As much as I hate to admit it, in the year 2030 philly and new york will come together as one metro. Its basically there now. philly isnt getting out of the top ten anytime soon. Its always been in the top ten.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's already happening. People in the Allentown/Easton area commute to both NYC and Philly to work and large tracts of land that were just fields 5-10 years ago around Easton are being turned into suburban communities and shopping centers, etc. I think that could very easily happen in 30 years... the whole Megalopolis is becoming more and more integrated and intertwined by roads and developments. Some people say that it will effectively stretch to Hampton Roads by that time and with the huge growth between Richmond and DC/Fredericksburg and Richmond and Williamsburg (and just W-Burg) I think it's possible... Time will tell.

[JeDawg]

That's cool if you don't want to include metro areas in your discussion but that is a true relflection of the overall size of the city. Also, if you're going to play hardball with some of the people posting maybe you should hold yourself accountable and get your "Top 40" list correct!

[Louisvilleslugger]

That list isn't quite accurate. You actually have Louisville outgrowing a lot of major cities. That isn't going to happen. Louisville combined their city/county population in the year 2003 so it gives the illusion of a growing city (and it may be growing in metro but certainly not in city population). The actual city proper population shrank by 4.8% between 2000-2004.

Attached is a link to a list of city populations and their current growth rates.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0763098.html

Actually Louisville's population has grown from 693k to 703k (2000-2004) that estimate on the source you listed is a miscounted estimate for Louisville that left out a sector of the city (Shivley PRP area) that will be counted in next years estimate.

Now I don't think Louisville will go up more than two spots in that census, not to say it won't retain it's spot.

But yeah I just to note that Louisville's population is growing in BOTH city and Metro.

[EbonyGardens]

Houston has potential to take out Chicago for #3. But Philadelphia falling 7 spots behind Phoenix, I don't see that happening. If anything, Philadelphia will be trying to stay at #5, and Phoenix to take Philly's place.