2000-2004 Growth Rates For Major City Centers

[teshadoh]

I felt like goofing off some at work - here are the rankings of center city growth rates & population gains for urban areas of over 1 million. Certainly, this isn't perfect - but block groups are the smallest census size which any private agency provides population estimates for.

The theme of this ranking of course is growth rate, a value to determine 'how well' a city center is doing. It isn't intended to rank the size of any city, & even for those cities that border a body of water, it should still be comparable. Basically - you are either growing or you're not.

RANK CITY GAIN RATE

1 Las Vegas 64256 14.54

2 Riverside 26796 11.16

3 Phoenix 31351 9.12

4 Sacramento 15853 5.89

5 Dallas 17684 5.12

6 Houston 19894 5.05

7 Orlando 14783 4.96

8 Tampa 8729 3.97

9 Atlanta 12570 3.94

10 San Diego 14244 3.48

11 San Jose 17276 3.17

12 Los Angeles 34213 3.13

13 Chicago 16056 2.58

14 Miami 10387 2.58

15 New York City 40851 2.24

16 Providence 6708 1.66

17 San Antonio 6045 1.56

18 Minneapolis 5766 1.48

19 San Francisco 10221 1.42

20 Washington 7087 1.17

21 Seattle 3349 1.07

22 Portland 2579 0.85

23 Boston 3436 0.46

24 Norfolk (Virginia Beach UA) -83 -0.03

25 Denver -340 -0.09

26 New Orleans -5386 -1.16

27 Columbus -3608 -1.19

28 Kansas City -3316 -1.45

29 Milwaukee -7219 -1.91

30 Detroit -4364 -2.03

31 Indianapolis -5889 -2.33

32 Philadelphia -23028 -2.95

33 Pittsburgh -12336 -3.23

34 Baltimore -20749 -3.98

35 Cincinnati -13328 -4.11

36 St Louis -11135 -4.78

37 Cleveland -10517 -4.81

METHODOLOGY: spatial query of block groups within (adjacent) of 5 miles from the city center (CBD / city hall)

SOURCE: 2004 Census Block Group updated with 2004 population estimates from ESRI

[bobliocatt]

Thanks for posting. Las Vegas is off the charts!

[bobliocatt]

No, he said his list only included cities, with urban core areas of over 1 million. Some cities, with metros over 1 million, like Charlotte, Jacksonville, Grand Rapids or Nashville, still have less than 1 million in their cores.

[teshadoh]

Who were you responding to Lakelander?

But yes - & just to clarify (b/c some people at another forum were debating this), the center of the 5 mile buffer is from the city center. So yes, this is downtown & adjacent area population.

Next week I may do southeastern cities, but since I always do these type of population surveys for the southeast, I thought I would do one for the nation.

[Newnan]

Where was Atlanta on this list a few years ago?

[teshadoh]

Where was Atlanta on this list a few years ago?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, this is the first time I made this list, so that would be... NEVER. Most likely lower - population growth in the city center didn't increase until the very late 90's.

[cheeriokid61]

I thought Atlanta's city limits were smaller in population than Nashville's was, or is this a different area?

[teshadoh]

Municipal boundaries are irrelevant to this study.

- Start with your central point for your city, the CBD or City Hall -

- Select any census block group within / adjacent based on a 5 mile buffer

There you go - these are population estimates for a 5 mile area around downtown for the above cities.

Nashville wasn't included b/c the census designated Urban Area is not over 1 million.

[Spartan]

Interesting. I am assuming you are useing the 2004 estimates?

I am not clear on what your data is representing. Is this the raw population gain since some previous time? You said "rate" so that implies some sort of change over some other unit of measurement. Could you be a little more specific?

[ironchapman]

Interesting. I am assuming you are useing the 2004 estimates?

I am not clear on what your data is representing. Is this the raw population gain since some previous time? You said "rate" so that implies some sort of change over some other unit of measurement. Could you be a little more specific?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it has to do with the %age rise in population of these things:

spatial query of Census block groups within (adjacent) of 5 miles from the city center (CBD / city hall)

the growth rate I'm guessing is the %age of growth in that area from 2000-2004.

Feel free to correct me.

[teshadoh]

Correct - 2000 population from census & 2004 population estimate from ESRI.

[facilities man]

Las Vegas is growing more in the city center than I realized.

Miami is lower than I would have thought, but a lot of growth is along the beach and probably just outside the five mile range.

An overwhelming number of cities in the South and West at the top of the list. The first Northern city is Chicago at #13.

Very interesting list.

[Spartan]

Considering that it is easier to build a two storey house than a 20 storey highrise, it is not suprising at all.

The big cities already have the "infill" areas filled in, and the other places (like Las Vegas) do not.

IMO, the 40k for NYC is much more impressive than the 60k for LV.

[ironchapman]

IMO, the 40k for NYC is much more impressive than the 60k for LV.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Is it because they were able to find the space to live in such a dense city?

[Spartan]

Yes and no. 40k new people in 4 years? Thats an entire small city in a place that is pretty well developed. NYC is not that dense- but there is not much if any free land waiting to be developed up there-particularly within 5 miles of Manhattan. Because of that I think the 40k is impressive.

Take a look at all the empty land and then low density land around that, and you can see how they accomplished that 60k

[ironchapman]

Take a look at all the empty land and then low density land around that, and you can see how they accomplished that 60k

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Vegas also has more room to spread out since it isn't cramped up on a few islands and a peninsula.

[Newnan]

So, even if a city like NYC gained 40,000 people in one year, if that's not a big percent value it won't be way up there

[farley]

where is Charlotte NC? Raleigh NC...

[teshadoh]

^ Sorry, I... hey - I already answered that question!

LIke I said earlier, I usually do these lists for southeastern cities but this time I thought I would tackle national cities so I stuck with the urban areas over 1 million. Besides - for smaller cities I would be wiser to use a smaller buffer area than 5 miles, possibly 2.5 miles or 1 (as I've done in the past) to accurately measure 'intown' growth since it is more likely a census block group that suburban in nature would be adjacent to a 5 mile buffer. Obviously the population rate would be higher - which is actually the case for this list as well. The highest ranked cities are those with only a minor urban core, so they should be ranked high b/c the density is low.

Spartan, I agree - a growth rate over 2% for existing large urban cores such as NYC, or even LA is phenomenol.