Global Warming and Hurricanes

[ironchapman]

NCB, I have my doubts that several of these storms forming now will ever become anything near Katrina/Wilma/Rita strength. It's just too late in the season. The waters are getting too cool for much to happen.

Of course, this is just my prediction.

[NCB]

^I dont think they will become that strong either.

But the fact that it's almost December, and it is still possible that Florida could get hit by a Tropical Storm or Hurricane is amazing, IMO.

[ironchapman]

Oh yeah, I don't think there's any denying it's amazing.

Though the hurricane season does stretch to the end of November (or sometime around there, usually), so there might be yet another in store for us. Who knows? I certainly hope not, though.

[TennBear]

According to a new study in the journal BioScience, the gradual warming of the Upper Midwest could cut the duck population by half by 2050. Oh, by the way, Tropical Storm Epsilon has formed in the mid atlantic.

[RiversideGator]

NOAA ATTRIBUTES RECENT INCREASE IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY

TO NATURALLY OCCURRING MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

See: http://www.magazine.noaa.gov/stories/mag184.htm

Of particular interest is this:

NOAA research shows that the tropical multi-decadal signal is causing the increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, and is not related to greenhouse warming.

And this:

There is consensus among NOAA hurricane researchers and forecasters that recent increases in hurricane activity are primarily the result of natural fluctuations in the tropical climate system known as the tropical multi-decadal signal. The tropical climate patterns now favoring very active hurricane seasons are similar to those seen in the late 1920s to the late 1960s. The current active hurricane era began in 1995, meaning the nation is now 11 years into an active era that could easily last several decades (20-30 years or even longer). We can expect ongoing high levels of hurricane activity

[monsoon]

NOAA, by the way, is non-partisan in that its employees are not hired or fired by different Presidential administrations. Discuss.

Just like the employees of the CIA. The very organization that said there weapons of mass destruction and nuclear bombs in Iraq. But then again, maybe they did say there were no weapons there.

[TennBear]

New News: Gulf Stream Weakening

Researchers on a scientific expedition in the Atlantic Ocean measured the strength of the current between Africa and the east coast of America and found that the circulation has slowed by 30% since a previous expedition 12 years ago.

Global warming weakens the circulation because increased meltwater from Greenland and the Arctic icesheets along with greater river run-off from Russia pour into the northern Atlantic and make it less saline which in turn makes it harder for the cooler water to sink, in effect slowing down the engine that drives the current.

[RiversideGator]

Just like the employees of the CIA. The very organization that said there weapons of mass destruction and nuclear bombs in Iraq. But then again, maybe they did say there were no weapons there.

Even though this is completely irrelevant, yes the CIA is non-partisan at the lower and middle levels although the head of the CIA is appointed by whichever President is in office when the vacancy occurs. As for NOAA, Max Mayfield, the directer of the National Hurricane Center, worked there during the Clinton administration too. I suppose he and all the scientists are being paid off by Bush and Exxon? Dont shoot the messenger if you cant argue the facts.

[monsoon]

It's not irrelevant. You are posting select news clippings from various government agencies to somehow back you contention there is no such thing as global warming and that it is unrelated to the what has become the worst hurricane season in recorded history. You contend that NOAA can't be wrong because they were not oppointed, yet the same can be said about the CIA which according to our chicken hawk president told him there were nuclear bombs in Iraq. Yet that did not turn out to be true, just like the denials of global warming.

[Aporkalypse]

It's not irrelevant. You are posting select news clippings from various government agencies to somehow back you contention there is no such thing as global warming and that it is unrelated to the what has become the worst hurricane season in recorded history. You contend that NOAA can't be wrong because they were not oppointed, yet the same can be said about the CIA which according to our chicken hawk president told him there were nuclear bombs in Iraq. Yet that did not turn out to be true, just like the denials of global warming.

You think that global warming is largely responsible for this year's horrific hurricane season.

Hmm. Why is that?

[monsoon]

You think that global warming is largely responsible for this year's horrific hurricane season.

Hmm. Why is that?

Read through this thread.

[Aporkalypse]

Read through this thread.

I was in on this debate from the start, I just can't see how one can make that kind of statement based on science at all.

[RiversideGator]

I was in on this debate from the start, I just can't see how one can make that kind of statement based on science at all.

Aporkalypse: You cant make that argument based on science. This is precisely why monsoon gets off on tangents like the CIA and WMDs in Iraq and ad hominem attacks on Bush: he cannot offer scientific evidence from hurricane experts to refute the article which I just posted. I had left this thread alone for a long time, but when I saw the NOAA article, I had to post it. I think this is basically case closed. End of discussion.

[Aporkalypse]

Aporkalypse: You cant make that argument based on science. This is precisely why monsoon gets off on tangents like the CIA and WMDs in Iraq and ad hominem attacks on Bush: he cannot offer scientific evidence from hurricane experts to refute the article which I just posted. I had left this thread alone for a long time, but when I saw the NOAA article, I had to post it. I think this is basically case closed. End of discussion.

I'm not going to dig the guy but as a scientist I agree with the NOAA. There is some recent evidence that global warming may increase the incidence of hurricanes. However, slight changes in temperature like we've seen (if you even believe that's not normal variation) should only account for a tiny percentage of increase. I hate to see the research manipulated in a way the authors of the articles argued against themselves.

As far as I know, no legimimate meteorologist has argued this hurricane season was directly the result of global warming. A few non-recognized quacks surely did, but not the respected groups in Miami, Oklahoma, Colorado, and NY that are the major hurricane experts.

[NCB]

Tropical Storm Epsilon strengthened to hurricane force today, making it the 24th named hurricane this season.

[monsoon]

I'm not going to dig the guy but as a scientist I agree with the NOAA.

I appreciate that you chose to stick to the topic an not attack me personally as riversidegator has done. You are entitled to your opinion and I certainly respect that. However as a scientist you should at least agree the environment is being affected by the activities of mankind. The earth is measurably warmer now on average and it is manifesting itself all over the globe. Especially in the poles. Hurricanes are big heat engines that convert stored heat in the oceans into kinetic and electrical energy. I will also point out that most reputable scientists have not denied there is global warming, and they have not denied that it is affecting hurricane activity.

So you asked me do I believe that global warming is affecting hurricanes and causing them to become worse and my answer is yes.

Quite interesting that we have hurricane Episilon even though it is December.

[Aporkalypse]

I appreciate that you chose to stick to the topic an not attack me personally as riversidegator has done. You are entitled to your opinion and I certainly respect that. However as a scientist you should at least agree the environment is being affected by the activities of mankind. The earth is measurably warmer now on average and it is manifesting itself all over the globe. Especially in the poles. Hurricanes are big heat engines that convert stored heat in the oceans into kinetic and electrical energy. I will also point out that most reputable scientists have not denied there is global warming, and they have not denied that it is affecting hurricane activity.

So you asked me do I believe that global warming is affecting hurricanes and causing them to become worse and my answer is yes.

Quite interesting that we have hurricane Episilon even though it is December.

I'm not saying there couldn't be an effect, there probably is. I just agree with the scientists that wrote the studies that are quoted that the impact would be minimal. A 10 degree increase in temperature would lead to a couple more hurricanes a year, not something like this. We are in a heavy hurricane cycle that will last for years or even decades. The hurricanes are more noticable because we are coming off an unusually long lull in activity. Note that warmer temperatures didn't correlate with more frequent hurricanes over that period.

As for global warming, I think the theory holds water. Still, temperatures were warmer around 1200 AD than they are now. We're not on the verge of some crazy climate change, we're well in the middle of the cyclical changes that have been the norm throughout earth's existance.

[Snowguy716]

The active hurricane season was caused by a variety of factors.

The single biggest contributing factor: Warmer than normal SST (Sea Surface Temperatures) in the Atlantic. Increased global temperatures and reduced currents (The NAD) have allowed the water near the equatorial atlantic to heat up to much warmer than normal.

This, combined with a neutral to slightly "la-nina-ish" ENSO cycle, has weakened the west winds that tend to tear up all but hte weakest tropical waves in the Atlantic... so, more storms were allowed to form in an uninhibited manner. This was more than likely not caused by global warming.

Also, the pattern that held in the U.S over the summer and into the fall was one that allowed storms to crash into the U.S rather than to be pushed out to sea, increasing the "damage" on U.S shores.

Global warming is a trend, not a sudden phenomena. The best way to measure global warming and its impact is to study things that do not respond from variable weather changes, but trends. This is why glaciers, snowpack, and polar ice cap cover is a better measure of what's going on on our planet. The fact that 95% of the world's glaciers are receding kind proves that the planet is warming.

Also, the only trend that co-incides with this rise in temperature is the rise in CO2/Greenhouse gases. Solar energy has been stronger in the past 70 years than any other 70 year period in the last 1000, but that only counts for 30% of the warming that has occured, maximum. There's still that other 70% that we can't make up for with natural forces.

In order to accept the information about sunlight and solar energy, you have to accept the Greenhouse theory, because they are both based on the same science and have similar proof.

[Snowguy716]

There is plenty of scientific evidence out there, Aparkolypse that would counter your claim that the planet was warmer in 1200AD than it is now.

Sure, Europe may have been a little warmer than it is now... but that speaks nothing for the rest of the planet.

This news about the Gulf Stream is quite alarming, though. This could become a very real problem. The slowing or shuttung down of the Gulf Stream could cool by up to 10*F in a couple decades which would make places like Iceland, Norway, and Scotland quite unbearable! Although the Scottish Ski Industry wouldn't be too angry about it.

[Aporkalypse]

There is plenty of scientific evidence out there, Aparkolypse that would counter your claim that the planet was warmer in 1200AD than it is now.

Sure, Europe may have been a little warmer than it is now... but that speaks nothing for the rest of the planet.

This news about the Gulf Stream is quite alarming, though. This could become a very real problem. The slowing or shuttung down of the Gulf Stream could cool by up to 10*F in a couple decades which would make places like Iceland, Norway, and Scotland quite unbearable! Although the Scottish Ski Industry wouldn't be too angry about it.

Actually, it's accepted that the effect of the slowing of the Gulf Stream would merely reduce the amount of warming that would occur, it would not actually cool Europe below it's current temperatures. The currents have little effect on Scandinavia but a profound effect on Western and Southern Europe. Rome, for instance, is at the same latitude as Boston.

Again, we're talking about background noise. The "trends" don't escape normal variation (yet?). They don't really demonstrate anything, any more than the record low temperatures in the Midwest now demonstrate that there ISN'T global warming.

[Snowguy716]

Actually, Scandinavia has the highest net effect from the jet stream. If you compare the climate of Scandinavia to other portions of the globe at similar latitudes, you'll find that it is much warmer.

For example, Nome, Alaska is at a similar altitude to middle-north Norway. The ocean at Nome freezes from November/December until May or so and summer temperatures rarely crack 60*F, while winter temperatures often stay below 0 for long periods of time.

Tromso, in the far north of Norway, can easily reach into the 60s during the summer, but rarely drops below 15*F in the winter, and often times in rains even in January... allowing trees to grow in Tromso (something impossible in the permafrost affected regions of west central Alaska).

This is a fair comparison, because both places border an ocean, both are at similar latitudes, and the only difference between them are ocean currents.

I'd also like to point out that Svalbaard, Norway's most northerly possession doesn't even get surrounded by ice in the witner, at 80*N latitude it is one of the furthest north inhabited places on earth. Yet it has a climate very similar to Godthab, Greenland, 20* south of it.

It has been suggested by scientists that while Spain and Italy would only see a net cooling of 1 or 2*C, the northern climes of Europe could be drastically affected.

So, while it is profound that Rome is the same latitude as Boston or NYC.. it is also profound that Tromso, Norway borders an ocean above the arctic circle and gets little snow in the witner time because of warm weather.

[monsoon]

This is particulary disturbing and more evidence that we are in the midst of global warming.

Polar Bears Drowning

[DigitalSky]

This is particulary disturbing and more evidence that we are in the midst of global warming.

Polar Bears Drowning

Oh wow. That's so sad their habitat is melting away!

[TennBear]

In the on-going discussion on Global Warming, NASA reported on Tuesday that 2005 was the warmest year on record. All the five hottest years on record have been within the last decade. 1998 was the second warmest. 1998 was an El Nino year and therefore expected to be warmer than usual. Third, fourth, and fifth were 2002-2004. Four of the five hottest years on record have been in the last four years.

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/

[monsoon]

Indeed. It is a vindication of everything said in this thread that global warming is here and getting worse. We actually had another storm in the Atlanta earlier this month that got a name. They included it on last year's hurricane list even though it was officially over. The storm was known as Zeta and is remarkable that it formed in the winter.