Future Southeastern Urban Area Changes - My Forecast

[teshadoh]

Below are a listing of possible modified urban areas, based on proximity & increasing density. I reviewed urban areas that are in the process of merging / consolidating other urban areas. Using census block groups, I compared the existing population & the growth based on 2000 population & 2004 ESRI estimates to determine if the density was likely to increase enough by 2010 to justify any change.

Some of these are most likely, but some others are questionable - particularly larger bordering urban areas are often determined to stay independant. So I noted those that are currently bordered as well as those that don't have the demographic data to support any change - but are close enough that it would likely happen.

UA, 2000 POP

Atlanta - 3,616k

Atlanta UA, 3,493k

Gainesville UA, 88k

Winder UC, 13k

Newnan UC, 22k

Greenville - 416k

Greenville UA, 299k

Mauldin-Simpsonville UA, 76k

# Clemson UC, 41k

Charlotte - 1,152k

Charlotte UA, 753k

Concord UA, 113k

Mooresville UC, 27k

* Gastonia UA, 140k

# Rock Hill UA, 69k

# Wingate UC, 3k

# Salisbury UC, 47k

Greensboro / High Point - 397k

Greensboro UA, 265k

* High Point UA, 132k

Raleigh / Durham - 825k

Raleigh UA, 539k

Durham UA, 286k

Cape Coral / Bonita Springs-Naples - 548k

Cape Coral UA, 329k

Bonita Springs-Napes UA, 219k

Tampa-St Petersburg - 2,154k

Tampa-St Petersburg UA, 2,049k

Brooksville UA, 101k

North Wesley Chapel UC, 4k

Lakeland / Winter Haven - 349k

Lakeland UA, 198k

* Winter Haven UA, 151k

Orlando - 1,366k

Orlando UA, 1,155k

Kissimmee UA, 184k

Clermont UC, 27k

Pensacola / Fort Walton Beach - 473k

Pensacola UA, 322k

Fort Walton Beach UA, 151k

Leesburg-Eustis / Lady Lake - 144k

Leesburg-Eustis UA, 95k

Lady Lake UA, 49k

Johnson City / Kingsport - 195k

Johnson City UA, 101k

* Kingsport UA, 94k

Washington / Baltimore - 6,260k

Washington UA, 3,936k

* Baltimore UA, 2,076k

* St Charles UA, 74k

# Aberdeen-Havre de Grace-Bel Air, 174k

Nashville - 880k

Nashville UA, 745k

* Murfreesboro UA, 135k

Houston - 4,050k

Houston UA, 3,819k

Texas City UA, 95k

Cypress UC, 4k

Grangerland UC, 2k

* The Woodlands UA, 89k

* Conroe UC, 41k

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington - 4,499k

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington UA, 4,140k

McKinney UA, 53k

Denton-Lewisville UA, 298k

Eagle Mountain UC, 4k

# Wilmer UC, 4k

* Proximity

# Within .5 miles

Urban Area maps:

http://www.census.gov/geo/www/maps/ua2kmaps.htm

Urban Area definition:

http://www.census.gov/geo/www/ua/ua_2k.html

[A2]

Thanks for the data teshadoh. Seems like a lot of research. But very helpful indeed.

A2

B)

[teshadoh]

It's just one of those things I do when I'm goofing off at work. THis time I thought I would post it - no biggy...

[monsoon]

I don't really understand this thread. Can you provide some kind of conclusions to the data you have posted?

[Florida]

Lol... someone brave enough to say it!

its great work though.

[teshadoh]

I don't see any problem with critiquing the point of the thread, because I admit there may not be a point. Consider it a selfish point of interest thread, as a hobby I enjoy demographic analysis with GIS & this time I thought I would review census Urban Areas with the intent of identifying 'major changes' for 2010.

If their would be any conclusion one could make out of this thread - I would guess it would be that there aren't many data nerds like me

Otherwise, Urban Area boundaries identify continous areas of census blocks over 1000 people per square mile, but besides the understanding that development occurs surrounding these Urban Areas thus increasing their size (by the 2010 census) they also increase their size by engulfing neighboring Urban Areas / Clusters. You can view that by seeing the Census Urban Area maps for Charlotte & Atlanta - Charlotte's UA stretches to encompase Monroe & Davidson, as Atlanta unbeliveably is able to include Griffin along a thin populated corridor. The inclusions of these existing urban areas will mean big things - at least statistically - for 2010.

Mainly - Charlotte, if Gastonia is included will be an Urban Area of over 1 million - based just on static 2000 population based on current UA boundaries. Addtionally other UA's may merge - but they may not, that might be the other case of interest. Determining which Urban Areas will remain 'independant' as others are 'surrendered' to a larger Urban Area is of some interest.

Well... interest to me of course. But honestly, consider this thread of some interest if you study Urban Area / Cluster formations or completely rubbish - I understand...

[A2]

If their would be any conclusion one could make out of this thread - I would guess it would be that there aren't many data nerds like me

I don't know about that teshadoh. I might be pretty close. I am crazy about numbers. Atlrvr, MC, Smellcat, and Dubone know how emphatic I am about these types of things. I will debate anything that has to do with CSA,MSA,UA, and 100-mile radius numbers.

I really like your research as it is not biased. It is factual. I also like that fact, that like me, you have lived in both the CLT metro and now are in ATL. This makes for great perspectives on the two metros.

In your work you have pointed out great truths about both cities, and in your research have helped provide valuable numbers for other metros that I have had little info on.

I am sure other posters from these metros appreciate the data you bring to the table.

On a side note it will be VERY interesting to see how the 2010 census plays out for CLT. I think ATL is already a given. Atlanta's UA number is Huge, simply put because of the way the city has sprwaled out and developed over its 30+ county metro.

I think CLT will be tougher to depict as the development patter tends to be "spoke" system. Charlotte being the center of the wheel and then cooridors (spokes) that lead to Urban nodes that are not reflected in MSA and UA numbers.

Thanks again Teshadoh,

A2

B)

[teshadoh]

I think CLT will be tougher to depict as the development patter tends to be "spoke" system. Charlotte being the center of the wheel and then cooridors that lead to Urban nodes that are not reflected in MSA an UA numbers.

What I find most interesting of Charlotte is as it matures, it will radically depart from that spoke system. As development fills in between Monroe & Rock Hill, etc. Charlotte might become more similar with Boston metro than Atlanta metro. But some comparison could be made of Atlanta & Charlotte 30 to 40 years ago, but with Atlanta the neighboring suburbs / towns of Marietta, Roswell, Lawrenceville were significantly smaller than today's Gastonia, Rock Hill, Concord. Whereas Boston, has grown further out to include several well established sattelite towns.

I would like Atlrvr's input on this - but nonetheless, once Charlotte starts incorporating the sattelite towns into it's 'collective' (think Borg), things are really going to elevate. Charlotte is growing now & is viewed as a competitive sunbelt city, but once the synergy of the neighboring towns are incorporated & the population of it's core grows - I can't help but think that Charlotte will grow to a comparable size to Atlanta in 4 or 5 decades.

[A2]

I think CLT will be tougher to depict as the development patter tends to be "spoke" system. Charlotte being the center of the wheel and then cooridors that lead to Urban nodes that are not reflected in MSA an UA numbers.

I can't help but think that Charlotte will grow to a comparable size to Atlanta in 4 or 5 decades.

Are you thinking in terms of total land area, or simply population Teshadoh? CLT's CSA is about half that of ATL's.

CLT's ~2.5M versus ATL's~ 5M.

A2

[teshadoh]

^ Not in term of area - in fact I am hopeful that Atlanta's MSA / CSA will decrease in size once the local economies in the fringe rural counties improves. But in population.

In my view there is some intangible 'hump' or 'benchmark' that seperates major regional cities & minor national cities, with Charlotte being somewhere between a major regional city & minor national tiered city as Atlanta moved from minor to major national city in the past few decades. I don't know what it is that seperates the Nashvilles, Jacksonvilles & Charlottes - but I think a major propellant is population mass. As it is now, Charlotte is medium sized urban area surrounded by several small urban areas & clusters - once the infill occurs between these areas, I would think this is what would propell Charlotte into the next tier - because it only requires a marginal population gain of a few hundred thousand between the existing urban areas, for Charlotte to quickly become a sizable urban area of 1.5 to 2 million by 2010. At that point - in the mind of developers & researchers - it is no longer the Charlotte, Gastonia, Rock Hill, etc. market but just the Charlotte market. Though it might not be seen as a big deal, a 1 million + UA is far more noticable than a 700k, 100k, 50k, etc. collection of UA's.

Just my theory - I'm not sticking to it if someone has a good arguement in disagreement

But going from 2 million to 4 million is much easier for a city trying to go from 1 million to 2 million or 500k to 1 million. I'll call it the gravity of population - larger masses of population have larger influences. It will take Charlotte only a few more hundred thousand before it really rolls away.

[A2]

^ Not in term of area - in fact I am hopeful that Atlanta's MSA / CSA will decrease in size once the local economies in the fringe rural counties improves. But in population.

In my view there is some intangible 'hump' or 'benchmark' that seperates major regional cities & minor national cities, with Charlotte being somewhere between a major regional city & minor national tiered city as Atlanta moved from minor to major national city in the past few decades. I don't know what it is that seperates the Nashvilles, Jacksonvilles & Charlottes - but I think a major propellant is population mass. As it is now, Charlotte is medium sized urban area surrounded by several small urban areas & clusters - once the infill occurs between these areas, I would think this is what would propell Charlotte into the next tier - because it only requires a marginal population gain of a few hundred thousand between the existing urban areas, for Charlotte to quickly become a sizable urban area of 1.5 to 2 million by 2010. At that point - in the mind of developers & researchers - it is no longer the Charlotte, Gastonia, Rock Hill, etc. market but just the Charlotte market. Though it might not be seen as a big deal, a 1 million + UA is far more noticable than a 700k, 100k, 50k, etc. collection of UA's.

Just my theory - I'm not sticking to it if someone has a good arguement in disagreement

But going from 2 million to 4 million is much easier for a city trying to go from 1 million to 2 million or 500k to 1 million. I'll call it the gravity of population - larger masses of population have larger influences. It will take Charlotte only a few more hundred thousand before it really rolls away.

Great points Teshadoh. I can't speak for atlrvr directly, but I can tell you that he and I have spoken about this subject from time to time. His thoughts are that CLT will hit this status in the next 5-10 years. I am sure he will correct me when he reads of our discussion. Atlrvr's mind works very much like yours and he would probably agree with 99% of your post, if not all. Again, I am not wanting to respond for him directly as his knowledge in this area surpasses mine. I might give him a jingle in a minute to get his thoughs on this topic.

BTW, thanks again for your insight. I think highly of your intelligent postings and consider them as reliable as the Gospel. I also agree about the population "gap" that CLT is on the cusp of filling. I am going to play the guessing game and say that we hit that criticle mass by 2010-2012. JMHO.

Thanks again for all the info

A2

[atlrvr]

Ok....back from Burlington, NC....a MSA that could be swallowed up itself by 2010.....though probably not the UA.

My thoughs on growth patterns are this.....they closely follow jobs.

The population of the northern Atlanta metro stayed focused on the 3 main corridors (75, 85, and 400) until the perimeter area became a hot growth area with HP and others in the 80s. This brought substantial jobs to the suburbs, so it was no longer important for people to live within a mile of a freeway "spoke"....living in the "fill in area" became bearable, because the commute times where less, and the freeways weren't important.

The same thing has happened in Southeast Charlotte. 1st there was Southpark, which drove growth in the area between Independence and I-77.....further out there is Ballantyne with about 3 millions square feet of office space in the area, which is now driving growth in the "wedge" between them including northern Lancaster Co. which was forever no-mans land as 521 used to be a 2-lane road to nowhere.

A similar trend is now taking place in both Southwest Charlotte and the Univ. area......I believe the amount of infill is directly tied to access to employment centers, and if downtown can once again attract the majority of new business, we will see the suburbs continue to concentrate close to the interstate as we have seen along I-77 (which until the last couple of years had little large scale high-paying jobs in the corridor).

In discussing Boston, much of their suburban growth has been driven by I-495/US-1 on the north side of the city which is roughly the same distance from the center city as both 285 and 485. This is their high-tech corridor.....and this is the one place where extensive infill has occurred.....otherwise, the population has been been concentrated into the freeway corridors south and west of the city (90, 93, and 95)

As far as what makes a city "there", I do agree that it is very subjective. Maybe it's hometown boosterism, but I do think Charlotte is closer to this level than either Jax or Nashville. I do think a skyline is part of this, as it is the best visual indicator short of aerial photography for the normal person to judge a city's size. I think professional sports are also important due to their (inter)national branding....there was a story in today's paper that included interviews of people in Munich to see whether Lufthansa's non-stop service to Charlotte has made people more aware of the city, and one person instantly said Hornets, when the interviewer asked if they knew of Charlotte. Obviously, national corporations with their HQ here get similar free advertising for the city (WSJ reports Bank of America, headquartered in Charlotte, NC).

But beyond all of this (and even beyond things like getting a Ritz-Carlton, Palm Steakhouse, Neiman-Marcus, etc), there is still an additional factor that makes a place "there"....and I would have to say, that factor is relocation desirability at both the regional level and national level. Charlotte is finally gaining the critical mass to be a contender for people relocating within the south, but at the national level, Charlotte's attraction has not grown beyond offering jobs. I think within the last 5 years, Atlanta has become "there" at the national level....this to me means a college Junior thinking about graduating is thinking, hey, it would be cool when I graduate to hopefully get a job in NYC, Boston, San Fran, LA, Atlanta, etc....There is something innate about where people desire to gravitate, and this to me defines a cities maturity.

I think Charlotte will get to this point, probably starting around 2013, though honestly, it will be closer to 2020 before I think I will feel like many people that I run into are here because "it's Charlotte".

[teshadoh]

Actually I came across this on the UA definition:

core census block groups or blocks that have a population density of at least 1,000 people per square mile and

surrounding census blocks that have an overall density of at least 500 people per square mile

Also, after additional reading - I can answer some of my earlier questions. The UA is actually contingous 500 psm, but based on an inital 1000 psm rule. Jumping does occur - which explains how Charlotte includes Fort Mill, b/c it is .5 to 2.5 miles from the nearest Charlotte UA block & fits the description of not being a seperate UC but being dense & popolous enough to join Charlotte. Lastly - Gastonia is seperate from Charlotte b/c it does qualify itself to be a UA & they connect at a single location. Raleigh & Durham then will likely stay seperate as long as Durham qualifies to be it's own MSA.

If that is the case, I am uncertain of Rock Hill or Gastonia being combined into Charlotte's UA - it will likely occur in 2020 then. Concord stands a good chance though. By 2020 at least, there would be no contest.

[A2]

Awesome posts, both of you guys. Thanks for the incredible insight. In 2020 the comparison of the SE will be Charlotte is to ATL, what NYC is to Boston IMO. Again Just my two cents

A2

(atlrvr thanks for replying so promptly)

[teshadoh]

Oh well - I don't want atlrvr posting anymore if he's not going to agree with my future Charlotte / Boston comparison.

But I'm tapped out for now...

[monsoon]

Ok, I still not sure what the above numbers mean. But if you are trying to form some conclusions as to predictors to futrure growth I think you are missing one element that affects post war cities and has huge influence over where people with live. That element is race relations.

[teshadoh]

No metroboy - I wouldn't view the numbers to reflect that. All I did was review the Census Urban Areas & determine which ones I thought were spatially close enough to be dissolved into a larger one. If the growth was already indicating that two seperate urban areas were close to each other - then that was all I based it on.

Not to say I disagree with the influence race relations have, but that seems to be a totally different exercise.