Who will reach 100,000 first?

[mcheiss]

Yeah or even like it is in California. That is one of the factors mentioned in why some of the are leaving the state for places like Fayetteville. Of course to them we're still pretty cheap. But yes hopefully there will be some other options. Otherwise we'll never be able to have much of a manufacturing base around here because too many people won't be able to afford living here.

Springdale is about the cheapest in the area to buy a house, which makes it a good candidate for a large manufacturing base. Rogers used to be just as cheap in the home sector, but due to certain developments and such, land prices have increased.

[Mith242]

Springdale is about the cheapest in the area to buy a house, which makes it a good candidate for a large manufacturing base. Rogers used to be just as cheap in the home sector, but due to certain developments and such, land prices have increased.

Yeah I think Springdale and Bella Vista are the cheapest cities to live in. Although I imagine there are also cheaper places further out in areas of Benton and Washington Counties. Maybe Siloam Springs will become more of a bedroom community. That reminds me Matt, which way would rather see growth of the metro go, west toards Siloam Springs, north to Missouri, or say northeast towards Eureka Springs?

[mcheiss]

Yeah I think Springdale and Bella Vista are the cheapest cities to live in. Although I imagine there are also cheaper places further out in areas of Benton and Washington Counties. Maybe Siloam Springs will become more of a bedroom community. That reminds me Matt, which way would rather see growth of the metro go, west toards Siloam Springs, north to Missouri, or say northeast towards Eureka Springs?

Probably north to Missouri. I wouldn't want it to go out towards Eureka Springs because of all of the great beauty and natural wonders out there. Siloam Springs would be too far for me. Towards Missouri seems like the best candidate because it has readily easy to develop land and cheap land for that matter. Plus it's closest to the metro up here at least.

That would make a good topic for someone. <Hint> <Hint>.

Edited November 1, 2005 by mcheiss

[Mith242]

Probably north to Missouri. I wouldn't want it to go out towards Eureka Springs because of all of the great beauty and natural wonders out there. Siloam Springs would be too far for me. Towards Missouri seems like the best candidate because it has readily easy to develop land and cheap land for that matter. Plus it's closest to the metro up here at least.

That would make a good topic for someone. <Hint> <Hint>.

I wasn't sure if there was enough interest to start a topic on this. I didn't know if people outside northwest Arkansas would have much interest. You and I seem to be the regular posters from northwest Arkansas here. We need to get some of the other northwest Arkansas guys to participate. I think some of them do check things out but don't seem to be the type who post very often. Not sure what happened with KJW, after being a regular for a while he sorta just disappeared on us.

[mcheiss]

I wasn't sure if there was enough interest to start a topic on this. I didn't know if people outside northwest Arkansas would have much interest. You and I seem to be the regular posters from northwest Arkansas here. We need to get some of the other northwest Arkansas guys to participate. I think some of them do check things out but don't seem to be the type who post very often. Not sure what happened with KJW, after being a regular for a while he sorta just disappeared on us.

We had a few come and go with posting.

May'be the majority of them just prefer to view and not post which is fine. It would probably just be another topic that me and you would have .

RemusCal posted a topic not to long ago, but haven't heard from him. I wish more people in NWA would know about it.

[Mith242]

We had a few come and go with posting.

May'be the majority of them just prefer to view and not post which is fine. It would probably just be another topic that me and you would have .

RemusCal posted a topic not to long ago, but haven't heard from him. I wish more people in NWA would know about it.

Yes I do think overall many of them still stop by to check things out. Many of them just don't post very often, unlike some of us.

Edited November 1, 2005 by Mith242

[mcheiss]

Yes I do think overall many of them still stop by to check things out. Many of them just don't post very often, unlike some of us.

That's true.

We pretty much inform everyone on every little detail.

[Aporkalypse]

Since the idea of daytime population was brought up, I saw this elsewhere and thought it was interesting - it's a ranking of the increase in daytime population in mid-sized and greater cities as a percentage. Little Rock is ahead of some notable cities which isn't surprising as most of Central Arkansas' major employers are based there. If you did this with smaller cities it would be interesting to see how Bentonville ranked.

105,637 73.8 Irvine city, CA

131,180 72.2 Salt Lake City city, UT

410,794 71.8 Washington city, DC

131,501 70.7 Orlando city, FL

64,448 63.0 Santa Clara city, CA

259,957 62.4 Atlanta city, GA

115,806 62.2 Paradise CDP, NV

68,219 58.7 Columbia city, SC

59,174 58.4 Cambridge city, MA

65,860 54.2 Hartford city, CT

80,131 52.6 Fort Lauderdale city, FL

80,341 51.6 Chattanooga city, TN

144,051 47.5 Tampa city, FL

80,035 46.0 Knoxville city, TN

138,191 41.3 Pittsburgh city, PA

242,092 41.1 Boston city, MA

43,850 40.0 Bellevue city, WA

59,078 39.0 Springfield city, MO

59,768 37.7 Tempe city, AZ

135,066 37.3 Miami city, FL

36,376 36.3 Burbank city, CA

65,895 36.0 Little Rock city, AR

87,309 36.0 Birmingham city, AL

77,466 35.2 Rochester city, NY

122,234 35.1 St. Louis city, MO

68,079 34.4 Richmond city, VA

34,512 34.3 Livonia city, MI

80,342 31.4 Louisville city, KY

102,720 31.0 Cincinnati city, OH

160,043 28.4 Seattle city, WA

155,486 28.0 Denver city, CO

93,305 25.1 Honolulu CDP, HI

69,193 25.1 Raleigh city, NC

95,476 25.0 Minneapolis city, MN

100,933 24.8 Sacramento city, CA

114,840 24.0 Cleveland city, OH

101,966 23.1 Kansas City city, MO

121,743 23.0 Portland city, OR

59,675 21.8 Newark city, NJ

168,747 21.7 San Francisco city, CA

114,655 21.2 Charlotte city, NC

403,313 20.6 Houston city, TX

76,558 19.6 Omaha city, NE

106,202 19.5 Nashville-Davidson (balance), TN

127,328 19.4 Austin city, TX

227,555 19.1 Dallas city, TX

74,836 19.0 Tulsa city, OK

94,645 18.7 Oklahoma City city, OK

47,605 16.3 Buffalo city, NY

102,743 15.8 Memphis city, TN

121,962 15.6 Indianapolis city (balance), IN

41,497 14.5 St. Paul city, MN

92,625 14.2 Baltimore city, MD

74,826 14.0 Fort Worth city, TX

59,804 12.3 New Orleans city, LA

30,335 11.6 Lexington-Fayette, KY

141,927 11.6 San Diego city, CA

82,520 11.6 Columbus city, OH

[Mith242]

Yeah Bentonville's is pretty high, I believe percentage wise it's one of the highest in the state. I think the daytime population increases by 13,000. I think that's third in the entire state behind Little Rock and Ft Smith. Of course Bentonville's population is quite a bit smaller than those two cities also.

[Mith242]

Seems like people have been voting a bit on here recently but no one is saying why they are voting the way they are. Seems like Jonesboro is moving up from what I remember the votes being a little while back.

[vbfl85]

I voted for Springdale because I feel like its one of the most "growth friendly" areas in the state. I would say Fayetteville but I think they are more strict on developers and there is less flat land around the city.

Conway is high on my list as well especially if the oil industry takes off.

[Mith242]

I voted for Springdale because I feel like its one of the most "growth friendly" areas in the state. I would say Fayetteville but I think they are more strict on developers and there is less flat land around the city.

Conway is high on my list as well especially if the oil industry takes off.

Yeah those are good points. I still have a hard time believing how much Springdale has caught up to Fayetteville. And yeah Fayetteville does seem to really go for the slower 'controlled' growth. I'm also curious to see how Conway turns out as well.

[Architect]

Conway's city leaders are all over it, though.

They are conducting a Census that will vastly improve funding once completed.

But, the dumbest thing I have seen is Metroplan not wanting to three lane the interstate between Conway and Little Rock. If that stretch of road doesn't need it, then I don't know what does.

The reason that Metroplan doesn't want to 3-lane that corridor is that it just encourages further suburbanization of the metropolitan area. You could argue that it is inevitable and that they are taking that stand in principle, but you could also argue that they have a point.

[cozmosis]

Of these growing five cities, the only ones you can give serious consideration to are the ones with double-digit population growth since the 2000 census. According to my numbers, those are Fayetteville, Conway & Springdale. Jonesboro is somewhere in the 7% range and Fort Smith is even lower in the neighborhood of 3%.

Springdale has the fastest rate of population growth... So, if all things are equal (which I know they aren't), Springdale has the best chance of hitting 100,000 first. Fayetteville will be neck-and-neck with them and might even could sneak ahead if the population growth in NWA shifted in their favor. Conway is right behind Springdale in population growth percentage since the 2000 census, but they obviously have further to go than Fayetteville and Springdale to reach the goal.

[masons_dad1]

Of these growing five cities, the only ones you can give serious consideration to are the ones with double-digit population growth since the 2000 census. According to my numbers, those are Fayetteville, Conway & Springdale. Jonesboro is somewhere in the 7% range and Fort Smith is even lower in the neighborhood of 3%.

Springdale has the fastest rate of population growth... So, if all things are equal (which I know they aren't), Springdale has the best chance of hitting 100,000 first. Fayetteville will be neck-and-neck with them and might even could sneak ahead if the population growth in NWA shifted in their favor. Conway is right behind Springdale in population growth percentage since the 2000 census, but they obviously have further to go than Fayetteville and Springdale to reach the goal.

Springdale's future population growth is dependent on who our next president is. There are candidates who want to eradicate illegal immigration and even start deporting illegals and their families. And there are candidates who support illegal immigration and want to extend work visas to all illegals. I won't mention names, because many of the candidates are a long-shot to win the Presidency of the US.

[Mith242]

Springdale's future population growth is dependent on who our next president is. There are candidates who want to eradicate illegal immigration and even start deporting illegals and their families. And there are candidates who support illegal immigration and want to extend work visas to all illegals. I won't mention names, because many of the candidates are a long-shot to win the Presidency of the US.

I don't think I'd agree. I think there's plenty of white growth going on in Springdale as well. I'm pretty sure Hispanics aren't the majority there. I think as long as Springdale keeps itself as one of the cheapest places in the area to buy a house people will keep moving there.

[masons_dad1]

I don't think I'd agree. I think there's plenty of white growth going on in Springdale as well. I'm pretty sure Hispanics aren't the majority there. I think as long as Springdale keeps itself as one of the cheapest places in the area to buy a house people will keep moving there.

Census numbers can't really apply to Springdale if there are a lot of illegals in Springdale. I don't think they'd voluntarily participate in the census knowing they might be deported if they're caught. Based on how many Hispanic oriented businesses are located in Springdale I'd feel safe to assume that if there's a crackdown on illegal immigration after this next Presidential election then Springdale's population may actually decrease instead of increase over the next several years. Many "legal" Hispanics may abandon the US in protest to immigration policy. Although I don't think many families will drag their kids back to South America. On the other hand, if illegal immigration is abolished and all illegals are extended work visas then Springdale's population could reach 100,000 nearly overnight. And one of the reasons is because Springdale is the cheapest city, with the number of Hispanics already there and the number of businesses catering to Hispanics in Springdale being other factors.

[mcheiss]

Census numbers can't really apply to Springdale if there are a lot of illegals in Springdale. I don't think they'd voluntarily participate in the census knowing they might be deported if they're caught. Based on how many Hispanic oriented businesses are located in Springdale I'd feel safe to assume that if there's a crackdown on illegal immigration after this next Presidential election then Springdale's population may actually decrease instead of increase over the next several years. Many "legal" Hispanics may abandon the US in protest to immigration policy. Although I don't think many families will drag their kids back to South America. On the other hand, if illegal immigration is abolished and all illegals are extended work visas then Springdale's population could reach 100,000 nearly overnight. And one of the reasons is because Springdale is the cheapest city, with the number of Hispanics already there and the number of businesses catering to Hispanics in Springdale being other factors.

Wrong. Census officials teamed up with the Hispanic community of NWA and actually broadcasted over the radio that it's okay if you're illegal. Census officials don't ask whether you're illegal or not, they just want to know your race and how many people live in the home.

[Mith242]

Census numbers can't really apply to Springdale if there are a lot of illegals in Springdale. I don't think they'd voluntarily participate in the census knowing they might be deported if they're caught. Based on how many Hispanic oriented businesses are located in Springdale I'd feel safe to assume that if there's a crackdown on illegal immigration after this next Presidential election then Springdale's population may actually decrease instead of increase over the next several years. Many "legal" Hispanics may abandon the US in protest to immigration policy. Although I don't think many families will drag their kids back to South America. On the other hand, if illegal immigration is abolished and all illegals are extended work visas then Springdale's population could reach 100,000 nearly overnight. And one of the reasons is because Springdale is the cheapest city, with the number of Hispanics already there and the number of businesses catering to Hispanics in Springdale being other factors.

Even if Hispanics started being deported more I still don't think there's going to be a max decrease of population. There's illegal aliens all over the country. Second of all even if a lot of Hispanics suddenly left Springdale there's a lot of affordable housing that's open on the market for others. For that matter Springdale might be more 'reasonable' to some white people who might avoid Springdale because of their own prejustice.

[masons_dad1]

Wrong. Census officials teamed up with the Hispanic community of NWA and actually broadcasted over the radio that it's okay if you're illegal. Census officials don't ask whether you're illegal or not, they just want to know your race and how many people live in the home.

That could be true if all the Hispanics and other races participate. Accuracy of census numbers in any city that has a large number of illegals remains questionable.

Even if Hispanics started being deported more I still don't think there's going to be a max decrease of population. There's illegal aliens all over the country. Second of all even if a lot of Hispanics suddenly left Springdale there's a lot of affordable housing that's open on the market for others. For that matter Springdale might be more 'reasonable' to some white people who might avoid Springdale because of their own prejustice.

There's no way to estimate Springdale's population loss if illegals start getting deported. I'm pretty sure that population growth in all Hispanic communities would be affected by it. I don't imagine that if illegals start getting deported and Hispanics start abandoning Springdale that a bunch of "prejudiced" people will start flocking to Springdale. Firstly, many businesses in Springdale would close down and there would be an economic crunch felt throughout the community. With losses to Springdale's tax base the city would find it challenging to create incentives for bringing in new businesses and creating new jobs in Springdale.

But try to remain optimistic. If one of several candidates is elected President, Springdale will hit the 100,000 mark in just a few short years.

[Aporkalypse]

Even if Hispanics started being deported more I still don't think there's going to be a max decrease of population. There's illegal aliens all over the country. Second of all even if a lot of Hispanics suddenly left Springdale there's a lot of affordable housing that's open on the market for others. For that matter Springdale might be more 'reasonable' to some white people who might avoid Springdale because of their own prejustice.

I agree with this. A lot of the reason I think Springdale tops off below 100,000 is that white flight will occur from Springdale and that will lessen the growth and ultimately equal it.

That said, there will be no mass deportation. There are cities in America that would be semi-vacant if that happened and too many families would be separated. Texas, California, Florida and Southwestern states would never stand for it.

[Architect]

It just occured to me that there are no cities aside from LR above that mark (and LR will approach 200,000 next census - and would be pushing 260,000 counting the city's 8th ward...oops, I mean NLR). Strange in a state pushing 3M. Arkansas' population is very diffuse (rural) compared to many states, but that is rapidly changing of course with population densifying in the central and NW parts of the state.

p.s. An entry on wikipedia for Little Rock erroneously states "A special 2007 census indicates that Little Rock has 238,934 people." Whatever.

Edited February 7, 2007 by Architect

[slyder1]

Since the idea of daytime population was brought up, I saw this elsewhere and thought it was interesting - it's a ranking of the increase in daytime population in mid-sized and greater cities as a percentage. Little Rock is ahead of some notable cities which isn't surprising as most of Central Arkansas' major employers are based there. If you did this with smaller cities it would be interesting to see how Bentonville ranked.

105,637 73.8 Irvine city, CA

131,180 72.2 Salt Lake City city, UT

410,794 71.8 Washington city, DC

131,501 70.7 Orlando city, FL

64,448 63.0 Santa Clara city, CA

259,957 62.4 Atlanta city, GA

115,806 62.2 Paradise CDP, NV

68,219 58.7 Columbia city, SC

59,174 58.4 Cambridge city, MA

65,860 54.2 Hartford city, CT

80,131 52.6 Fort Lauderdale city, FL

80,341 51.6 Chattanooga city, TN

144,051 47.5 Tampa city, FL

80,035 46.0 Knoxville city, TN

138,191 41.3 Pittsburgh city, PA

242,092 41.1 Boston city, MA

43,850 40.0 Bellevue city, WA

59,078 39.0 Springfield city, MO

59,768 37.7 Tempe city, AZ

135,066 37.3 Miami city, FL

36,376 36.3 Burbank city, CA

65,895 36.0 Little Rock city, AR

87,309 36.0 Birmingham city, AL

77,466 35.2 Rochester city, NY

122,234 35.1 St. Louis city, MO

68,079 34.4 Richmond city, VA

34,512 34.3 Livonia city, MI

80,342 31.4 Louisville city, KY

102,720 31.0 Cincinnati city, OH

160,043 28.4 Seattle city, WA

155,486 28.0 Denver city, CO

93,305 25.1 Honolulu CDP, HI

69,193 25.1 Raleigh city, NC

95,476 25.0 Minneapolis city, MN

100,933 24.8 Sacramento city, CA

114,840 24.0 Cleveland city, OH

101,966 23.1 Kansas City city, MO

121,743 23.0 Portland city, OR

59,675 21.8 Newark city, NJ

168,747 21.7 San Francisco city, CA

114,655 21.2 Charlotte city, NC

403,313 20.6 Houston city, TX

76,558 19.6 Omaha city, NE

106,202 19.5 Nashville-Davidson (balance), TN

127,328 19.4 Austin city, TX

227,555 19.1 Dallas city, TX

74,836 19.0 Tulsa city, OK

94,645 18.7 Oklahoma City city, OK

47,605 16.3 Buffalo city, NY

102,743 15.8 Memphis city, TN

121,962 15.6 Indianapolis city (balance), IN

41,497 14.5 St. Paul city, MN

92,625 14.2 Baltimore city, MD

74,826 14.0 Fort Worth city, TX

59,804 12.3 New Orleans city, LA

30,335 11.6 Lexington-Fayette, KY

141,927 11.6 San Diego city, CA

82,520 11.6 Columbus city, OH

Hey, Springfield did pretty good compared to other cities. Thanks for that inof Apork.

[Architect]

Hey, Springfield did pretty good compared to other cities. Thanks for that inof Apork.

I agree...pretty impressive. I didn't realize it had that type of draw, though many in north-central Arkansas regularly travel to Springfield rather than LR due to proximity (and the avoidance of driving down through the mountains!).

I've never had a chance to spend much time in Springfield...fill us in on what's happening there.

[masons_dad1]

I agree with this. A lot of the reason I think Springdale tops off below 100,000 is that white flight will occur from Springdale and that will lessen the growth and ultimately equal it.

That said, there will be no mass deportation. There are cities in America that would be semi-vacant if that happened and too many families would be separated. Texas, California, Florida and Southwestern states would never stand for it.

I wouldn't say there will be "mass deportation", but illegal immigration is the top issue for this next Presidential election and there are some pretty tough decisions needing to be made by whoever whens the election. It could be as disastrous to this country to start handing out work visas to every illegal that comes across the border as it would be to start cracking down on illegals in heavily saturated cities like Springdale and Rogers, among others in Arkansas.

The media has been getting more aggressive about how "out of control" illegal immigration is getting and now our nation's children are being victimized by this travesty. People who support illegal immigration maybe don't realize that more and more criminals, rapists, child molesters and terrorists are entering our southernmost border each day. They're not all decent people just wanting to find a more prosperous life in the US. Unfortunately, the floodgate has been opened and it's going to require some harsh decisions to get it under control.