Northwest Arkansas Regional Airport (XNA)

[Cardsman2520]

Will the road from XNA to new 412 bypass be done on same timetable as the bypass (next 3 years or so)? When you drive down hwy 112 they are building quite a bit west of 112 already

[jb1087]

July 2015 passenger numbers released.  For XNA, 12 months from July 2014 to July 2015, arriving and departing passengers up 5.8% and 5.7% respectively from July 2013 to July 2014.  Number of flights was down by 7%.  Load factor (how full planes are) for July 2015 was 83.9%.  

Fort Smith was positive as well.  Arriving and departing up 3.7% and 4.1%.  Number of flights was down by 4.3%.  Load factor was 86.8%.  

[TRB]

From the NWABJ

by Robin Mero

Did you know the Northwest Arkansas Regional Airport (XNA) will begin offering a new, nonstop flight to New York City’s LaGuardia Airport beginning in April 2016, via Delta Airlines?

Stay tuned as to whether ticket prices will improve when two airlines begin serving that market.

Also this month, XNA will host a national meeting between airlines and airports — a la “speed dating” style. Representatives from airports and carriers converge upon Northwest Arkansas Oct. 20-22. At the Embassy Suites in Rogers, they’ll rotate meeting each other every 25 minutes.

Airport director Kelly Johnson says XNA is hosting the event to showcase our airport and region to the airlines. The agenda includes a half-day meeting at Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art and dinner at 21c Museum Hotel. To really strut our region’s stuff, Johnson says. It’s fitting that these events would feature “The Museum that Alice Built” and “The Hotel She Hand-Picked.”

Remember: But for Walmart, we’d likely still be flying out of Fayetteville’s tiny, fog-prone Drake Field. Sam Walton made the early push for a new airport, and his daughter Alice was first chairperson of the Northwest Arkansas Council, formed in 1990 with the primary goal of constructing a new airport.

I’ve been inquiring about fares, logistics and our retail community’s sentiment about XNA, because I’ve been making travel arrangements for our upcoming CPG School on Oct. 21. Speakers for that event include retail buyers and founders of Fortune 500 companies, and we’d love for you to join us at the Northwest Arkansas Community College’s Shewmaker Center in Bentonville.

During the recent economic downturn, many Walmart suppliers expected employees to scour the region’s airports to find fares cheaper than XNA’s. I hear this is lessening. I do think people are intensely proud of our airport, where travel options and quality are made possible by retail-related travel.

Airfare is always the chief complaint, right? And it’s valid. One employee of a Walmart supplier tells me he’s due in Chicago this week; the fare for an XNA ticket was $1,200, so he opted to fly from Tulsa on American Airlines for $292.80, including taxes and fees. Ouch.

XNA fares can run 30 percent higher. As a result, XNA loses 35 percent in business to other airports, such as Tulsa, Springfield, Fort Smith and Kansas City, XNA’s Johnson says.

“Tulsa’s the big one, 12.6 percent,” Johnson said. “And 9 percent of our travelers drive to Dallas to fly. That one surprised us. We think it’s international vacation travelers, but we don’t know with any great degree of certainty.”

But XNA is a positive anomaly in that flights and seats are expanding. Between January 2015 and January 2016, United Airline seats are expected to increase 56 percent with added flights — and larger aircraft with two-class cabins — going to Chicago, Denver and San Francisco.

New, nonstop flights eliminate the dreaded possibility of a second leg being canceled, stranding a traveler overnight. Yes, most XNA planes are still regional jets — outside the occasional 737 or MD80 — but that means more frequency of flights and options. The use of 167-seat airplanes would leave only two daily flights to Chicago instead of six, Johnson said

 

So, based on last year's number, 35% would somewhere between 225,000 and 250,000 more passengers.

I read either in that article or another one where she said they have talked to Spirit, Frontier, and JetBlue. Really sounded negative on Southwest.

 

I read either in that article or another one where she said they have talked to Spirit, Frontier, and JetBlue. Really sounded negative on Southwest. So, it's sad to  see such little hope for Southwest. As a growing market it would seem to me we are a bit different of a market they are misjudging. I think a flight to Dallas for a little O&D and the connections would be very popular. I get that Southwest isn't what it once was but there's still a positive effect on prices. I am checking prices for a week long trip to DC for early June 1016 and I can book one stops from Memphis for as low as 188 per person R/T and under 800 for a family of 4. I can fly the  nonstops to DC from Memphis for what the one stops at XNA start at in the mid 400s. The same goes for New York City around the same time for a week long trip. Only slightly more for a open jawed trip into DC and out of New York.

Edited October 17, 2015 by TRB

[TRB]

I have no idea on what happened to the font size there. I'm on a phone and can't even change that 

[jb1087]

I still think the issue with Southwest and XNA is Southwest's business model.  They have multiple flights per day, every day of the week, on 150 seat planes.  Similar to what was in the article about having larger planes meaning fewer flights would seem to apply to Southwest.  If they dumped 3 flights per day to Dallas, so 450 seats, onto what we currently have, what percent of them would be profitable?  And I think three is still on the very low end, if at all possible, for Southwest.  

[wmr]

I still think the issue with Southwest and XNA is Southwest's business model.  They have multiple flights per day, every day of the week, on 150 seat planes.  Similar to what was in the article about having larger planes meaning fewer flights would seem to apply to Southwest.  If they dumped 3 flights per day to Dallas, so 450 seats, onto what we currently have, what percent of them would be profitable?  And I think three is still on the very low end, if at all possible, for Southwest.  

Their business model has evolved.  They used to be a small-market service, with lots of short-hops.  That is changing. 

[TRB]

I still think the issue with Southwest and XNA is Southwest's business model.  They have multiple flights per day, every day of the week, on 150 seat planes.  Similar to what was in the article about having larger planes meaning fewer flights would seem to apply to Southwest.  If they dumped 3 flights per day to Dallas, so 450 seats, onto what we currently have, what percent of them would be profitable?  And I think three is still on the very low end, if at all possible, for Southwest.  

They relying more and more on connecting traffic yet don't have the regional airlines  the consolidated legacies do to feed the hubs. Their entire fleets consists of 737s although there's some size difference between the models and even the upcoming 737 MAXs on the way.  

Let's get into hypltheticals, based on last year's number of 619,157 enplanements and there was the potential of 35 percent (217,000)more that XNA feels they lost to other airports. That would take XNA from the 106 ranking to 92, right behind LR and in the middle of Southwest Cities like Greensboro, Wichita, Akron and a host of others. It would peel off their business at Tulsa and maybe LR. But Southwest has done just that with LR by expanding in Memphis. It's a major cause of LRs decline in numbers. What separate us there is that we are growing far faster and there would be the ability to establish yourself as the go to for leasure travel and budget minded business folks. If the growth predictions prove true and this area approaches 800,000 in 15 to 20 years and you throw in Ft Smith and you are squarely in the ballparks of lots of Southwest's markets. Maybe Dallas isn't the first Southwest Market but a daily or twice daily to Houston Hobby that allows connects to their new international markets in Mexico and Carribean and to chicago midway for connections eastwars seem like a no brainer right here and now. I don't know how much XNA charges for gate space and that's prohibitive. I see this as the reason we haven't seen more Allegiant destination. Maybe it's because they don't want to step on the Legacies toes(see united  to San Fran) 

I noticed lots of ads on tv yesterday during the Ole Miss vs. Memphis game touting the San Fran nonstop.  I noticed more ads for that in 4 hours than I have anything else for XNA in the past couple years combined.

[jb1087]

Their business model has evolved.  They used to be a small-market service, with lots of short-hops.  That is changing. 

It may be.  They just don't seem to be expanding much into new domestic destinations.  

[TRB]

Someone on another board it was theorized if and when another merger took place what would it be? One of the answers was a merger between Alaska, Jet Blue and Hawaiian Airlines. One was eastern focused and one is western while one serves primarily  the islands and Asian routes from the west coast and major airports. The first two have been slowly adding routes into the interior of the country. He suggested STL, CVG, and MEM as potential hubs. (And remember this is all just message board conjecture) I'd suggest XNA for a hub the connect the east and west regions. Smack dab in the middle, that's an economic fast riser, a place where the airport is growing with fares seen at existing hubs for locals and would receptive to those fares plus loads of room to grow.  Just conjecture. I'd pick Memphis as it would be instantly ready with the infrastructure and no compete major 0 layer with a large presence like Southwest is at Kansas City, Nashville and St. Louis and the still heavy presence of Delta at Cincy.

Edited October 18, 2015 by TRB

[TRB]

This might help with a Delta XNA/SLC 

http://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=10988921

[burnz34]

San Fransisco starts service to XNA today! 

[fooman03]

Did some digging around on american's website and it looks like American is increasing the LAX flight from 1 to 2 flights daily on March 3rd. The aircraft is also changing from a CRJ-700 to an EMB-175.

[burnz34]

1 hour ago, fooman03 said:

Did some digging around on american's website and it looks like American is increasing the LAX flight from 1 to 2 flights daily on March 3rd. The aircraft is also changing from a CRJ-700 to an EMB-175.

You're correct. American is beginning a second flight on March 3rd. The new flight lands and at XNA 12:15pm so it would takeoff from LAX at 7:10am.

[burnz34]

Correction. The new double daily flights with LAX starts on January 6th

[Architect]

On October 18, 2015 at 3:09:29 PM, TRB said:

They relying more and more on connecting traffic yet don't have the regional airlines  the consolidated legacies do to feed the hubs. Their entire fleets consists of 737s although there's some size difference between the models and even the upcoming 737 MAXs on the way.  

Let's get into hypltheticals, based on last year's number of 619,157 enplanements and there was the potential of 35 percent (217,000)more that XNA feels they lost to other airports. That would take XNA from the 106 ranking to 92, right behind LR and in the middle of Southwest Cities like Greensboro, Wichita, Akron and a host of others. It would peel off their business at Tulsa and maybe LR. But Southwest has done just that with LR by expanding in Memphis. It's a major cause of LRs decline in numbers. What separate us there is that we are growing far faster and there would be the ability to establish yourself as the go to for leasure travel and budget minded business folks. If the growth predictions prove true and this area approaches 800,000 in 15 to 20 years and you throw in Ft Smith and you are squarely in the ballparks of lots of Southwest's markets. Maybe Dallas isn't the first Southwest Market but a daily or twice daily to Houston Hobby that allows connects to their new international markets in Mexico and Carribean and to chicago midway for connections eastwars seem like a no brainer right here and now. I don't know how much XNA charges for gate space and that's prohibitive. I see this as the reason we haven't seen more Allegiant destination. Maybe it's because they don't want to step on the Legacies toes(see united  to San Fran) 

I noticed lots of ads on tv yesterday during the Ole Miss vs. Memphis game touting the San Fran nonstop.  I noticed more ads for that in 4 hours than I have anything else for XNA in the past couple years combined.

I do find it a bit surprising that prospects for SWA at XNA aren't promising, but given their changing business model and their recent contraction from unsuccessful markets (pulled out of Jackson, Branson and others), I think they're being cautious.

With respect to activity at LIT, that has also been surprising and disappointing given the continued population growth of the market.  There are two significant factors though: both the expansion of SWA in Memphis (which traditionally wasn't served by SWA, but now pulls people from east Arkansas), as well as the sunsetting of the Wright Amendment, which previously limited flights direct of SWA out of Dallas Love Field to bordering states (which meant lots of fly through routes from coastal markets through bordering cities like Little Rock and Tulsa - both of which have had reduced flights to DAL).  This has been a double-whamy for LIT, which can hopefully weather the near-term market pressures with some resiliency (example: SWA is reinstating direct service to STL) and return to consistent, moderate growth.

[TRB]

11 hours ago, Architect said:

I do find it a bit surprising that prospects for SWA at XNA aren't promising, but given their changing business model and their recent contraction from unsuccessful markets (pulled out of Jackson, Branson and others), I think they're being cautious.

With respect to activity at LIT, that has also been surprising and disappointing given the continued population growth of the market.  There are two significant factors though: both the expansion of SWA in Memphis (which traditionally wasn't served by SWA, but now pulls people from east Arkansas), as well as the sunsetting of the Wright Amendment, which previously limited flights direct of SWA out of Dallas Love Field to bordering states (which meant lots of fly through routes from coastal markets through bordering cities like Little Rock and Tulsa - both of which have had reduced flights to DAL).  This has been a double-whamy for LIT, which can hopefully weather the near-term market pressures with some resiliency (example: SWA is reinstating direct service to STL) and return to consistent, moderate growth.

The Branson flights by all accounts I've ever seen were profitable, Branson was a stop and go for some flights between Houston and Chicago, meaning they picked up and dropped off passengers without ever completely deploying the passengers. The Sat only flights to Orlando had good yields. It has been stated numerous times it was just a business  model decision. The Frontier flights Y all accounts had good loads but that service ended when Frontier pulled back and shrunk Denver and connects.

 

As for Memphis, I'd never thought I'd see American(with US Air under its wing) be the carrier with the most flights our of Memphis, but they have nonstops to every hub outside of Los Angeles,  which is a bit odd.  The last Southwest addition with a nonstop to Austin on Sat only is a bit of a headStratcher but more retaliatory against Allegiant, which started twice weeklies to Austin from Memphis. Allegiant has gone gang busters in Memphis and Cincy with Delta pull backs at each.

[jb1087]

19 hours ago, Architect said:

I do find it a bit surprising that prospects for SWA at XNA aren't promising, but given their changing business model and their recent contraction from unsuccessful markets (pulled out of Jackson, Branson and others), I think they're being cautious.

With respect to activity at LIT, that has also been surprising and disappointing given the continued population growth of the market.  There are two significant factors though: both the expansion of SWA in Memphis (which traditionally wasn't served by SWA, but now pulls people from east Arkansas), as well as the sunsetting of the Wright Amendment, which previously limited flights direct of SWA out of Dallas Love Field to bordering states (which meant lots of fly through routes from coastal markets through bordering cities like Little Rock and Tulsa - both of which have had reduced flights to DAL).  This has been a double-whamy for LIT, which can hopefully weather the near-term market pressures with some resiliency (example: SWA is reinstating direct service to STL) and return to consistent, moderate growth.

I haven't lived in Little Rock for about a decade, but I feel like NWA is, or has in very recent years, greatly skewed the overall economic growth of Arkansas.  While the population of Little Rock has been growing, I believe the economy in the central part of the state has been lagging the state overall and the country as well.  This may have improved in the last year as I haven't kept up, but that was situation 2-4 years ago.  That can't have helped Southwest or the airport's overall traffic.  

[Architect]

2 hours ago, jb1087 said:

I haven't lived in Little Rock for about a decade, but I feel like NWA is, or has in very recent years, greatly skewed the overall economic growth of Arkansas.  While the population of Little Rock has been growing, I believe the economy in the central part of the state has been lagging the state overall and the country as well.  This may have improved in the last year as I haven't kept up, but that was situation 2-4 years ago.  That can't have helped Southwest or the airport's overall traffic.  

NWA has certainly been a fast-growing market for going on 20 years now, but your analysis of Little Rock seems a bit anecdotal.  Let's use data...MSA GDP growth over the past 5 years:

NWA GDP

2009  $18.47B

2014  $25.10B  (rank 95)

35.9% growth (impressive)

 

LIT GDP

2009  $33.4B

2014  $38.58B (rank 66)

15.5% growth (likely average for metros, but also likely much higher than the state in general)

 

I don't have time to search data for average GDP growth for MSA's over the past five years to confirm how either market compare, but I can assure you that your statement of Central Arkansas lagging the state overall is most certainly not true.  But to your point about impact on the airport...I think even though Dillard's, Acxiom, Windstream and others still weigh heavily on the economy and airport traffic, the sale and dismantling of Alltel has likely had a notable impact on business travel at LIT.

[jb1087]

13 minutes ago, Architect said:

NWA has certainly been a fast-growing market for going on 20 years now, but your analysis of Little Rock seems a bit anecdotal.  Let's use data...MSA GDP growth over the past 5 years:

 

My main measure was unemployment rate for the city itself.  I believe in either 2012 or 2013, its trend was quite the inverse of the country as a whole, or at least according to several news articles at the time.  

Of course, as both of our accounts show, there are many ways of a looking at the health of the economy for any given area.  

Edited December 8, 2015 by jb1087

[Architect]

16 hours ago, jb1087 said:

My main measure was unemployment rate for the city itself.  I believe in either 2012 or 2013, its trend was quite the inverse of the country as a whole, or at least according to several news articles at the time.  

Of course, as both of our accounts show, there are many ways of a looking at the health of the economy for any given area.  

Gotcha.  I don't recall anything standing out about that, but maybe I missed it.  Either way, the LR economy is solid, if not exactly on fire...

[TRB]

Equipment change coming from American(Eagle), Dallas to and from XNA, LIT, and MEM switch from CRJ900S to E75 in Feb.

Edited December 8, 2015 by TRB

[jb1087]

4 hours ago, Architect said:

Gotcha.  I don't recall anything standing out about that, but maybe I missed it.  Either way, the LR economy is solid, if not exactly on fire...

It may have corrected itself in the last 1-2 years.  But there was a period of about 12-24 months in a row where as the United States unemployment was coming down every month/quarter (albeit slowly), Little Rock's rate was increasing for that same timeframe as well.  

Since apparently the economy isn't probably a huge factor, it's strange that the airport has been in decline for the last two years.  Of course, it could have been that previously the government was counting Southwest's "flow through" traffic as arriving and departing to LIT...not sure how that works.  (By flow through, I mean customers in say, Dallas, flying through Little Rock to get to somewhere that the Wright Amendment barred at the time.)  Or maybe that the drawdown of Southwest because of the Wright Amendment changes has made it less viable for some people to fly, though you'd think if there was enough demand, Southwest would fly the frequencies regardless if they originated in Little Rock or not.  

I believe even Allegiant is cancelling its LIT-Orlando (the "other" airport) in January and February, but keeping XNA to there during the same two months.  

33 minutes ago, TRB said:

Equipment change coming from American(Eagle), Dallas to and from XNA, LIT, and MEM switch from CRJ900S to E75 in Feb.

I haven't flown either, but from the forums I follow, people seem to regard the E75 as the one of, if not the most comfortable regional jet.

Edited December 9, 2015 by jb1087

[jb1087]

Looks like passenger growth numbers have come back down to Earth a bit at XNA.  Aug 2014 thru Aug 2015 was up 4.3% departing and up 4.6% arriving from Aug 13-14.  Sept 14-15 (latest month released) was up 3.7% departing and 3.5% arriving over Sept 13-14.

[Architect]

On December 8, 2015 at 6:01:21 PM, jb1087 said:

It may have corrected itself in the last 1-2 years.  But there was a period of about 12-24 months in a row where as the United States unemployment was coming down every month/quarter (albeit slowly), Little Rock's rate was increasing for that same timeframe as well.  

Since apparently the economy isn't probably a huge factor, it's strange that the airport has been in decline for the last two years.  Of course, it could have been that previously the government was counting Southwest's "flow through" traffic as arriving and departing to LIT...not sure how that works.  (By flow through, I mean customers in say, Dallas, flying through Little Rock to get to somewhere that the Wright Amendment barred at the time.)  Or maybe that the drawdown of Southwest because of the Wright Amendment changes has made it less viable for some people to fly, though you'd think if there was enough demand, Southwest would fly the frequencies regardless if they originated in Little Rock or not.  

The sunsetting of the Wright Amendment has impacted not just LIT, but OKC, TUL and ABQ, etc.  Enplanements are down on SWA not because of how they are counting fly-throughs, but simply from reduced flights.  SWA went from 6 flights a day to 3 on LIT-DAL, but have since increased that back to 4.  The strange thing is that AA had been using quite a few MD-80's (mainline) on LIT-DFW, but those have been pulled...which is counter to what you would think...that AA would BENEFIT from reduced SWA service.  Very strange.

[TRB]

13 hours ago, Architect said:

The sunsetting of the Wright Amendment has impacted not just LIT, but OKC, TUL and ABQ, etc.  Enplanements are down on SWA not because of how they are counting fly-throughs, but simply from reduced flights.  SWA went from 6 flights a day to 3 on LIT-DAL, but have since increased that back to 4.  The strange thing is that AA had been using quite a few MD-80's (mainline) on LIT-DFW, but those have been pulled...which is counter to what you would think...that AA would BENEFIT from reduced SWA service.  Very strange.

I have often wondered that if we have reached a point where consolidation has opened the door for new regional airlines. There's a good numerous of jets that are smaller than a 737 but larger than regional that boast incredible fuel efficiency gains. The new C100s and 300s from Bombardier and a new Mitsubishi Jet are all about to be hitting the air with impressive performance gains fuel wise. Even Sukoi has it's SSJ that's being  received well.

 

The thing is, sustained lower fuel costs make planes like the new generation of turbo props like the newer Q400 from Bombardier even cheaper to fly. The main problem is pilots, not enough of them. 

 

I can see a scheduled charter service doing well with seasonal routes and less than weekly year routes much like Allegiant but with smaller planes from XNA. Like twice to three timea a week flights to Destin during the summer aND switch over to ski router in the winter. Even a St. Louis and New Orleans Friday and Sunday flight. It's all about being the travel agent too.  If someone offered me a comfortable seat with a carry on for $189 R/T and a 20 buck checked bag fee and be on the beach on the Gulf coast by sun down instead of on the road through Mississippi or changing over in Atlanta for my family. I'd be all over it.