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Median Household Income 2003


TennBear

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I used to live in Hawkins County a long time ago (just west of Sullivan County and Kingsport). Just across a very steep and continuous ridge to the west of Hawkins County is Hancock County, the poorest county in Tennessee by a wide margin. It is truly the armpit of Tennessee economically. It's amazing what a role geography can play in all of this. That ridge makes the county almost inaccessable and thus very poor.

Well I know this doesn

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Lots of interesting figures being compiled! Cool stuff to read and think about.

West Tennessee will soon have two counties over 100K, as Madison (94,397) probably by 2010 will pass, or be getting very close to, the 100K mark.

The next closest county is Gibson (48,124), and will be awhile before it will be approaching 100K, umm like decades, if ever. :(

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Lots of interesting figures being compiled! Cool stuff to read and think about.

West Tennessee will soon have two counties over 100K, as Madison (94,397) probably by 2010 will pass, or be getting very close to, the 100K mark.

The next closest county is Gibson (48,124), and will be awhile before it will be approaching 100K, umm like decades, if ever. :(

What about Tipton? And Fayette, even though smaller than Gibson could likely reach 100k before Gibson.

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The next closest in West TN would be Tipton County (Covington, Munford, Atoka, Brighton and Mason) at approx 55,000 and will get to 100,000 eventually. It may be 30 years though, unless I-69 (which the TN portion is probably 10-15 years away and the entire portion even longer than that) helps boost growth rate considerably. It's currently growing at about 2% per year putting it right at 30 years if the current rate remains steady.

And I imagine that Fayette County will get there too. In fact, although it stands at only about 34,000 (as of 2004 Census stats), its current annual growth rate is about 4.3%. If this rate remains steady, Fayette would reach 100,000 in about 25 years.

But as for any other counties in West TN, something major would have to occur to push them to the sort of growth required to get to 100,000. Maybe I-69 could help the growth in Dyer and Obion, but they're both under 40,000 and would still have a long way to go.

But these are just speculation. Fun to consider though. Definitely good information in this thread. Thanks for compiling these lists. :)

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The next closest in West TN would be Tipton County (Covington, Munford, Atoka, Brighton and Mason) at approx 55,000 and will get to 100,000 eventually. It may be 30 years though, unless I-69 (which the TN portion is probably 10-15 years away and the entire portion even longer than that) helps boost growth rate considerably. It's currently growing at about 2% per year putting it right at 30 years if the current rate remains steady.

And I imagine that Fayette County will get there too. In fact, although it stands at only about 34,000 (as of 2004 Census stats), its current annual growth rate is about 4.3%. If this rate remains steady, Fayette would reach 100,000 in about 25 years.

But as for any other counties in West TN, something major would have to occur to push them to the sort of growth required to get to 100,000. Maybe I-69 could help the growth in Dyer and Obion, but they're both under 40,000 and would still have a long way to go.

I think Fayette could get to 100,000 quicker than we think. In 1990, DeSoto County MS was only 67,000. It's now 135,000, and it's growth is faster than any county in Tennessee.

Urban flight is accelerating out of Shelby County as Memphis annexes most of it. The established old suburbs of Germantown and Bartlett are still very nice, but aging and pricey, etc. The only "boomtown" suburb in Shelby County is Collierville--right on the Fayette line.

The Commercial Appeal recently did an article about the "donut hole" effect--income going to the outlying counties out of Shelby. That article also mentioned that homes in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 range were being built in Fayette. Finally, in the next 3 or so years, the eastern part of the I-269 loop--partially in Fayette--will be completed which will add another incentive for people to move there.

Problem is, all those people and all that development will be a good 30 miles from downtown Memphis, unlike the Mississippi suburbs which are only 8 or 10 miles.

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What about Tipton? And Fayette, even though smaller than Gibson could likely reach 100k before Gibson.

To be honest someone until this thread mentioned it after I posted, I didn't realize Tipton sits at 54,722. I didn't even reference the list when I posted, and just went on assuming Gibson was the 3rd largest because I was thinking all the other counties were less than 40K from memory.

People make good arguments for both Tipton and Fayette growing rapidly enough for one or the other, or both, to grow into the 100K range in the the coming decades. Not sure. Memphis is pushing in both directions, so thats definately would bold well for the possiblity of either. I have been hearing alot about the growth in the southern half of Tipton Co. but I had not realized that it had pushed it past Gibson or nearly as high as it currently stands.

As for Obion and Dyer, they may see some additional population growth with I-69 and the industry in may bring, but that will hinge mainly on large and well-paying that industrial growth is. I have no doubt that Union City and Dyersburg, if they and the counties play their cards right, could see some good growth if they land some new major employers, just by retaining and attracting kids who currently move off to Jackson, Memphis, and Nashville from the region to work there instead of the bigger cities. Lake County also could see a good jump if Cates Landing produces the 3-4000 direct jobs it is hoped to.

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I think Fayette could get to 100,000 quicker than we think. In 1990, DeSoto County MS was only 67,000. It's now 135,000, and it's growth is faster than any county in Tennessee.

Urban flight is accelerating out of Shelby County as Memphis annexes most of it. The established old suburbs of Germantown and Bartlett are still very nice, but aging and pricey, etc. The only "boomtown" suburb in Shelby County is Collierville--right on the Fayette line.

The Commercial Appeal recently did an article about the "donut hole" effect--income going to the outlying counties out of Shelby. That article also mentioned that homes in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 range were being built in Fayette. Finally, in the next 3 or so years, the eastern part of the I-269 loop--partially in Fayette--will be completed which will add another incentive for people to move there.

Problem is, all those people and all that development will be a good 30 miles from downtown Memphis, unlike the Mississippi suburbs which are only 8 or 10 miles.

Yeah, Fayette is growing like wildfire--fastest in the state between 2000 and 2004. It could certainly grow faster than its current rate too. Although, Collierville isn't the only boom town in Shelby. Arlington (a great deal smaller) has doubled since the 2000 census according to their town's special census last year. It's still small, but is growing very fast. Fearless prediction: Arlington will reach 20,000 by the 2010 census. No joke either--It doubled to about 5,000 based on the town's census and has added approx between 1500 and 2000 people based on building permits in 2005 alone. And with a new high school opened last year there, the pace will only quicken. Nearby Lakeland is on the grow as well. Both of those towns sit in the northeastern portion of the county between Hwy 64 and Hwy 70 to the south and north. Like Collierville, though, Arlington sits right on the county line adjacent to Fayette, and Lakeland is adjacent to Arlington.

Strange thing about the Fayette growth though is that the booms in Arlington and even in Collieville have had little impact on adjacent towns of Gallaway and Piperton. Just guessing, I would say that 80-90% of the county's growth occurs in the western-central portion around Oakland and the unincorporated Hickory Withe along the Hwy 64 corridor--and that growth began several years ago prior to Arlington's recent surge. Until recently there had been no developments in Somerville, the County Seat. A few are in the works now though. Rossville, Moscow, Braden, and La Grange have all been relatively stagnant for a while as has Gallaway mentioned earlier. Piperton is beginning to grow, but very slightly, receiving minimal impact from Collierville and the nearly completed bypass of Collierville leg of S.R. 385.

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Here's some more interesting data concerning population in the three grand divisions of Tennessee. All of the data is based on the 2000 Census and the 2004 Population Estimates for Counties published earlier this year by the US Census Bureau. There will four numbers listed by each heading. From left to right they will be population in 2000, population in 2004, and net increase in population, projected 2010 poulation assuming same percentage increase for rest of decade. Only counties in Tennessee are listed. Therefore MSA's which extend into other states will show only Tennessee populations for that MSA.

East Tennessee Grand Division

Chattanooga MSA............347,042......350,393........3,351......355,420

Cleveland MSA................104,015......107,237........3,222......112,070

Johnson City MSA............181,607......187,321........5,714......195,892

Kingsport-Bristol MSA......206,611......208,349........1,738......210,956

Knoxville MSA.................616,079......647,170......31,091......693,807

Morristown MSA...............123,081......129,010.......5,929......137,904

Rest of Division...............541,070......564,714......23,644......600,180

Total East Tennessee.....2,119,505...2,194,194......74,689...2,306,228

Middle Tennessee Grand Division

Clarksville MSA...............147,138......154,999........7,861......166,791

Nashville-M'boro CMSA..1,311,789...1,395,879......84,090...1,522,014

Rest of Division...............611,049......634,124......23,075......668,737

Total Middle Tennessee. 2,069,976...2,185,002....115,026...2,357,541

West Tennessee Grand Division

Jackson MSA...................107,377......110,170........2,793......114,360

Memphis MSA..................977,549......996,521......18,972...1,024,979

Rest of Division...............414,876......415,075...........199......415,374

Total West Tennessee....1,499,802...1,521,766......21,964...1,554,712

Total Tennessee............5,689,283...5,900,962....211,679...6,218,481

Some observations from the above data.

1. Middle Tennessee will definitely be the most populous division by 2010.

2. The Knoxville MSA is accounting for nearly 42% of all the poulation growth in East Tennessee.

3. The Rural counties in both East and Middle Tennessee are overall doing well.

4. The Nashville - Murfreesboro CMSA is accounting for over 73% of the growth in Middle Tennessee and nearly 40% of the growth of the entire state.

5. The rural counties of west Tennessee are overall doing poorly - essentially zero growth.

6. The Memphis MSA is accounting for over 86% of the population growth of West Tennessee.

7. 35.3% of Tennessee's overall population growth is occurring in East Tennessee.

8. 54.3% of Tennessee's overall population growth is occurring in Middle Tennessee.

9. Only 10.4% of Tennessee's overall population growth is occurring in West Tennessee.

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^ Not enough jobs to retain, or attract, folks in rural West Tennessee. There in is a substantial industrial base in a few counties, but it has not grown much over the past decade(s) and in many areas there have been some major losses, so for most people to make money when they get out of HS or college they move off to Jackson, Memphis, or probably the most popular destination Nashville. So that really almost eliminates population growth in the rural counties. Thats why West Tennessee really needs some new major employers, without them the virtually stagnate/low growth rates in the regions rural and micropolitan populations will continue.

That industrial growth I think for the rural regions is on the way though with Cates Landing, the Crockett Co. Mega-Site, I-69, etc. So maybe in the coming decades more of rural West Tennessee and its micropolitan areas can kick up their growth rates.

@Hankster- That is a great set of numbers you put together. Really illustrates the growth rate difference in the rural and urban areas of the state. This thread has been great in providing some great information that we usually don't see or think about.

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It is strange to look at stats which show that only 996,000 Tennesseeans live in the Memphis metro. Shows how significant Mississippi is to the area population-wise. There'll probably be close to 300,000 Mississippian-Memphians by 2010.

Memphis just keeps sliding south into Mississippi. Maybe it's the New Madrid fault. :P

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^^ I do believe that much of the time, you can look to the local leadership. I don't know much about Memphis proper, but how effective is the local government? How well do they compete against the surrounding burgs? It's such an important component. Just look at how much Atlanta pumps up itself. Hell, this town isn't anywhere near a body of water, but that doesn't matter a bit. We'll just build the largest aquarium in the world. See what I mean? I get the impression that Memphis' efforts are half-hearted at best.

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To clear up... I reference Atlanta mainly to illustrate the extent (ridiculous at times) that Atlanta is constantly trying to build the next big thing. Living here, I often wonder why can't we just be happy with what we have and improve upon that. But our leaders are always tearing down and building back up.

Now, from where I sit, it seems as though Mississippi is just so much more aggressive at recruiting business and growth (a la Atlanta) than Memphis and Tennessee. For example, where the heck is the big, showy Fedex tower downtown?

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To clear up... I reference Atlanta mainly to illustrate the extent (ridiculous at times) that Atlanta is constantly trying to build the next big thing. Living here, I often wonder why can't we just be happy with what we have and improve upon that. But our leaders are always tearing down and building back up.

Now, from where I sit, it seems as though Mississippi is just so much more aggressive at recruiting business and growth (a la Atlanta) than Memphis and Tennessee. For example, where the heck is the big, showy Fedex tower downtown?

Memphis government has been maligned for giving too much to corporations. Virtually any company expanding there gets Payment In Lieu of Taxes (PILOT) incentives.

Memphis has been very aggressive in giving incentives to FedEx. Their new headquarters building was built inside the city limits. Tax incentives were given to keep FedEx's tech center in town as well. In fact, a freeway was put on the fast-track to make access easier. The office park mentality is just a fact of life whether in Memphis or Atlanta or Nashville.

Memphis did do a land-swap deal to get AutoZone to build its headquarters downtown.

Memphis just landed the world headquarters of International Paper a few months back. But again, while inside the city limits, they're in an office park.

The amount of money invested in downtown Memphis has been in the billions the past few years. The medical center is spending $1.3 billion in improvements and a biotech research park.

On that thread about economic strength, Memphis was ranked 23 of 361 metros. Not at the top, but still a pretty good showing.

The growth in suburban Mississippi is a result of FedEx. There is no more land in southern Shelby County to build the gargantuan warehouses and logistical supply facilities that feed the airport. The nearest available land is right across the state line in Mississippi.

Memphis' fate is the same as about any southern city's. Most population growth and office growth is taking place in the suburbs or outlying areas of the city.

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^ Not enough jobs to retain, or attract, folks in rural West Tennessee. There in is a substantial industrial base in a few counties, but it has not grown much over the past decade(s) and in many areas there have been some major losses, so for most people to make money when they get out of HS or college they move off to Jackson, Memphis, or probably the most popular destination Nashville. So that really almost eliminates population growth in the rural counties. Thats why West Tennessee really needs some new major employers, without them the virtually stagnate/low growth rates in the regions rural and micropolitan populations will continue.

That industrial growth I think for the rural regions is on the way though with Cates Landing, the Crockett Co. Mega-Site, I-69, etc. So maybe in the coming decades more of rural West Tennessee and its micropolitan areas can kick up their growth rates.

@Hankster- That is a great set of numbers you put together. Really illustrates the growth rate difference in the rural and urban areas of the state. This thread has been great in providing some great information that we usually don't see or think about.

I totally agree with you, RK. Rural West Tennessee needs Cates Landing, and a mega-site big time the kick start some growth. IMO, that would be enough to convince a lot of younger folk to stay in rural West Tennessee rather than move to Memphis, Jeackson or elsewhere.

I hate to see any region of Tennessee become stagnant. I really hope something really good comes down for those folks.

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Lots of interesting figures being compiled! Cool stuff to read and think about.

West Tennessee will soon have two counties over 100K, as Madison (94,397) probably by 2010 will pass, or be getting very close to, the 100K mark.

The next closest county is Gibson (48,124), and will be awhile before it will be approaching 100K, umm like decades, if ever. :(

There are 3 counties that will all cross the 100,000 mark in 2010....

Madison in West Tennessee

Wilson in Middle Tennessee

Bradley in East Tennessee

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There are 3 counties that will all cross the 100,000 mark in 2010....

Madison in West Tennessee

Wilson in Middle Tennessee

Bradley in East Tennessee

I'll bet the farm that Wilson has already crossed the mark in '05...I bet they'll end up with about 110,000 people by 2010.

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I'll bet the farm that Wilson has already crossed the mark in '05...I bet they'll end up with about 110,000 people by 2010.

This is very true. Wilson county is the fastest growing of the 3 breathing down 100,000's neck.

Based on Tennessee Advisory Commision numbers:

Bradley County

2000-87,965

2005-94,810

2010-103,873

18.1% change from 2000-2010

Madison County

2000-91,837

2005-96,726

2010-104,797

14.1% change from 2000-2010

Wilson County

2000-88,809

2005-98,910

2010-110,448

24.4% change from 2000-2010

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I'll bet the farm that Wilson has already crossed the mark in '05...I bet they'll end up with about 110,000 people by 2010.

Utilizing the U.S. Census bureau estimates, Wilson has been growing by an average 2k every year since 2000 and was at just under 98k in Summer '04, so they probably surpassed 100k in the past few months.

Looking at Madison County, it only seems to be growing at anywhere from 200-600 per year (and was at 94,400 last year), so it may be after 2010 it reaches 100k (unless it somehow "picks up the pace").

Bradley is erratic, also between 600-1k per year, so it also may be similar to Madison in being after 2010.

Of course, this all presumes they have roughly the same level of growth for the forseable future, and that's usually a risky presumption... Oh, well...

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Utilizing the U.S. Census bureau estimates, Wilson has been growing by an average 2k every year since 2000 and was at just under 98k in Summer '04, so they probably surpassed 100k in the past few months.

Looking at Madison County, it only seems to be growing at anywhere from 200-600 per year (and was at 94,400 last year), so it may be after 2010 it reaches 100k (unless it somehow "picks up the pace").

Bradley is erratic, also between 600-1k per year, so it also may be similar to Madison in being after 2010.

For reasons beyond me, Tennessee is the only state I know of that consistenly underestimates its own population growth. Compared to Georgia, where it seems we count every single person who passes through the state, Tennessee would seem to be reluctant to reveal how fast it's growing. Official estimates still peg the population at below 6 million. I would bet good money that that benchmark was passed earlier this year.

Heck, the estimates out now don't even show an increase in Davidson County, which is surely somewhere between 600K and 610K, just based on housing permits from 2000-2004 alone.

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Heck, the estimates out now don't even show an increase in Davidson County, which is surely somewhere between 600K and 610K, just based on housing permits from 2000-2004 alone.

The city of Nashville estimates that the population of Davidson County was 595,000 in 2004. In year's past, their estimates have proven to be on the conservative side, so I wouldn't be surprised if your estimates of 600K to 610K aren't pretty darn close to the mark.

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For reasons beyond me, Tennessee is the only state I know of that consistenly underestimates its own population growth. Compared to Georgia, where it seems we count every single person who passes through the state, Tennessee would seem to be reluctant to reveal how fast it's growing. Official estimates still peg the population at below 6 million. I would bet good money that that benchmark was passed earlier this year.

Heck, the estimates out now don't even show an increase in Davidson County, which is surely somewhere between 600K and 610K, just based on housing permits from 2000-2004 alone.

I don't know if you were following this subject in the late '90s, but according to the Census Bureau, Davidson County was supposedly only estimated to increase in population from 511k in 1990 to about 525-530k or so in 2000. When the final figures came in for 2000 showing it was not only NOT 530k but 570k, my jaw dropped. At this point, even as a county resident, I have no idea what the current figure may actually be. After the '00 Census, there were claims the population was actually declining. As of now, the CB still stands on its figure of 572k for July 2004, not even 3k higher over 2000. I'd at least like to think the CB has a bit more info than us peons, but they were so incredibly off with their estimates for 2000 (even as late as 1999 !) that I have to view their figures with suspicion. We may very well be only at 575k, but then again, we could be nearing 620k. It'd be nice to know which one it was... :blink:

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I am fastly getting to the point where I don't trust the census any further than I could throw them. I would love to have an independent firm come in and show the boys in Washington up just once. Get it remotely close is all that I ask. Something that the Census Bureau seem to never get. St. Louis is a great example of consistant under-counts in the city limits. They (the city) have challenged the last three census reports I believe, twice with one mayor.

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I am fastly getting to the point where I don't trust the census any further than I could throw them. I would love to have an independent firm come in and show the boys in Washington up just once. Get it remotely close is all that I ask. Something that the Census Bureau seem to never get. St. Louis is a great example of consistant under-counts in the city limits. They (the city) have challenged the last three census reports I believe, twice with one mayor.

I dunno, in the case of St. Louis, that's a rather different situation. St. Louis has been in freefall for decades (a relative of mine was Mayor when the city had nearly 1 million residents, it's just barely 1/3rd that today - the single greatest numerical decline of a city once between 500k to 1 mil and the greatest % decline of a city once over 500k in US history - although Detroit is giving them a run for their money), and often the local pols will want to "pad" the numbers (since every fewer person means fewer federal tax $$), especially under such circumstances.

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