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cameronm

Will Orlando metro surpass tampa metro in 5 years?

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I really have been looking at metro orlando population and if i'm not mistaken it's already at 2million people. Do you think it will happen in 5 or ten years?

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^Yep, Greater Orlando is just over 2 million. Not surprising since Metro Orlando is one of the fastest growing metros in the country, joined by Las Vegas and Phoenix. With Metro Tampa growing and Greater Orlando growing, it'll be kind of hard for Orlando's metro to overtake Tampa metro.

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Its amazing the Orlando area isn't already the state's most populous. With all of the attractions, and the NBA team, and central location in the Peninsula. It would seem that Orlando would have as much sprawl if not more than Atlanta.

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No metro Orlando won't catch metro Tampa anytime soon. Metro Tampa is also growing rapidly and has around 2.5 million residents.

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Itll never happen.

The way homes are built (low density, sprawl style, think classic orange county design) they will never pass the Bay area in population.

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^ Never say never. The day metro Orlando's pop surpasses metro Tampa's is probably sooner than you think. Could someone post the population trends for the two metro's from the past 20 or 30 years? That might be a good indication of which direction the two are headed.

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You could be right, Greater Orlando and Greater Tampa have been neck and neck for quite sometime. But Tampa is really a double metro: You have the Tampa Bay region which stretches all the way to Sarasota and has like 3.8 million in all, then there's the Tampa Bay area, which roughly contains 2.6 million.

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Itll never happen.

The way homes are built (low density, sprawl style, think classic orange county design) they will never pass the Bay area in population.

Oh yeah. You never see any of that in Tampa. :whistling:

Give me a break.

Orlando has an uphill battle due to Tampa Bay having 2 cities instead of one. However, it WILL eventually surpass the both of them.

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It's inevitable that Orlando will pass the current Tampa metro area in population. It's just a matter of when. The Tampa area is growing, but not at the rate Orlando has and still is. Pinellas county is done growing except for spurts of redevelopment. It is surrounded by the Gulf and Tampa Bay. Hillsborough is done growing North and can really only grow East and South. Orange County and all the Counties around Oralndo are growing out in all directions. I'd say in fifteen years at the most the Orlando metro area will have a larger population than the Tampa metro area. The big question is what will the metro areas look like in ten or twenty years. Orlando should by then include Volusia and Brevard Counties. What areas will the Tampa metro include by then? Will Polk County remain is own metro area, become part of Tampa's or be split between Orlando and Tampa? Northeast Polk identifies with Orlando and the Western side of Polk is clearly tied to Tampa. Both of the cities tollroad extensions are driving growth, but Orlando's beltway is going to be a 100 mile loop when completed and is 3/4 done. Just for perspective..., the beltway around Atlanta is 30 miles. When all these areas fill in, I believe the Orlando metro area will be larger in population than Tampa, about 15 years.

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I doubt Daytona and Brevard County will ever become a part of Metro Orlando. They, have their own central cores and plenty of locally based jobs and companies. While the regions will continue to grow together, they'll continue to keep their individual idenitites.

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Both of the cites tollroad extensions are driving growth, but Orlando's beltway is going to be a 100 mile loop when completed and is 3/4 done. Just for perspective..., the beltway around Atlanta is 30 miles.

Not that it matters....but,

Okay, when you say the loop is going to be 100 miles are you talking about the miles around the loop or it's distance from the city center. If you are talking about the miles around the loop then your figure for Atlanta's I-285 is not correct.

I'm sorry but Im a big stickler for erroneous information. :shades:

Okay to the topic at hand, I feel based on available land and current gorwth figures, Orlando's metro will surpass Tampa's metro in about 10 to 15 years. Tampa would really have to stop growing period for Orlando to catch up in 5 years.

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Not that it matters....but,

Okay, when you say the loop is going to be 100 miles are you talking about the miles around the loop or it's distance from the city center. If you are talking about the miles around the loop then your figure for Atlanta's I-285 is not correct.

I'm sorry but Im a big stickler for erroneous information. :shades:

Okay to the topic at hand, I feel based on available land and current gorwth figures, Orlando's metro will surpass Tampa's metro in about 10 to 15 years. Tampa would really have to stop growing period for Orlando to catch up in 5 years.

You're correct.... The 100 miles will be the distance of the loop around Orlando. The I-285 loop I believe is actually a little over 60 miles.

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I doubt Daytona and Brevard County will ever become a part of Metro Orlando. They, have their own central cores and plenty of locally based jobs and companies. While the regions will continue to grow together, they'll continue to keep their individual idenitites.

Brevard might be more of a stretch to become part of metro Orlando, but many already consider Volusia to be part of the metro Orlando area. I wouldn't be surprised to see this change in the 2010 census. The metro designation for Volusia has already changed from Daytona Beach to Deltona to reflect that city's larger population, (Daytona 65,000, Deltona 80,000+). Deltona is a bedroom community of Orlando and will lead the pull of Volusia into the metro Orlando area. JMO...

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I doubt Daytona and Brevard County will ever become a part of Metro Orlando. They, have their own central cores and plenty of locally based jobs and companies. While the regions will continue to grow together, they'll continue to keep their individual idenitites.

Saying that is contradicts the previous poster who thinks Sarasota is part of Tampa... I think Sarasota is further away from Tampa than Daytona from Orlando, could be wrong. At any rate... they did a study on the Orlando area and by 2050 they said there would be like 7.2 million people in the area and it would be sprawled all the way to the Atlantic... That is if they dont change the way they manage growth.

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Saying that is contradicts the previous poster who thinks Sarasota is part of Tampa... I think Sarasota is further away from Tampa than Daytona from Orlando, could be wrong. At any rate... they did a study on the Orlando area and by 2050 they said there would be like 7.2 million people in the area and it would be sprawled all the way to the Atlantic... That is if they dont change the way they manage growth.

Distances per my Rand and McNally atlas...

Orlando to Daytona Beach 56 miles.

Tampa to Sarasota 56 miles.

Tampa to Lakeland 33 miles.

Orlando to Lakeland 54 miles.

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In reality they will be connected to each other before Orlando can overtake it.... Kissimme to Haines City to Winter Haven to Lakeland... those are the connector burbs...

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Saying that is contradicts the previous poster who thinks Sarasota is part of Tampa... I think Sarasota is further away from Tampa than Daytona from Orlando, could be wrong. At any rate... they did a study on the Orlando area and by 2050 they said there would be like 7.2 million people in the area and it would be sprawled all the way to the Atlantic... That is if they dont change the way they manage growth.

:shok: Orlando to have 7.2 million by 2050, just think of all the new development that would have been completed.

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I don't think any of the smaller metros (ex. Lakeland, Daytona, Brevard, Sarasota) will be engulfed by larger two metros, mainly because they are large enough communities to stand on their own, which means they have a slim chance of meeting the Census Bureau's commuting requirements. However, they'll continue to grow together, so the possibility of a "Central Florida" CSA (similar to Washington/Baltimore) may be a more realistic possibility.

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I don't think any of the smaller metros (ex. Lakeland, Daytona, Brevard, Sarasota) will be engulfed by larger two metros, mainly because they are large enough communities to stand on their own, which means they have a slim chance of meeting the Census Bureau's commuting requirements. However, they'll continue to grow together, so the possibility of a "Central Florida" CSA (similar to Washington/Baltimore) may be a more realistic possibility.

I think that's a possibility by 2050.

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I don't think any of the smaller metros (ex. Lakeland, Daytona, Brevard, Sarasota) will be engulfed by larger two metros, mainly because they are large enough communities to stand on their own, which means they have a slim chance of meeting the Census Bureau's commuting requirements. However, they'll continue to grow together, so the possibility of a "Central Florida" CSA (similar to Washington/Baltimore) may be a more realistic possibility.

That's pretty much how I see it playing out.

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I can see the Tampa urban area connecting with Lakeland. It's just a matter of time before the Tampa suburbs connect with Plant City,and the area between Lakeland and Plant City is built up.

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Regarding Atlanta, I-285 is roughly at the same distance from downtown Atlanta as SR 436 is from downtown Orlando at Altamonte Springs. It's not that big a loop. SR 417 is way further out.

Although not as dense in the suburbs yet, Orlando's geographic "reach" is as far or further than Atlanta's is to North Georgia (for the sake of comparison).

DB and Brevard are in the same boat as Sarasota and Manattee counties with regard to Tampa Bay; they have their own city centers as well.

But, DB and Titusville and Cocoa are satellite cities. I've said it before and it is a fact, that people commute from Titusville up SR 50 to O-town. They even come from Edgewater/ New Smyrna in East Volusia up SR 44 (which is being widened all the way to I-4 with a new interchange). I also know people who have commuted from Merrit Island up 528, and people who cross commute out to the Space Center from Orlando for work.

Central Florida is set up like Texas. Everything is spread way out and it is expected and accepted. People are so accustomed to driving these long distances, that they forget just how far they are driving. Just b/c there's a certain number of miles that one may think is too much between cities, doesn't change the fact that people live in one place and work in the other place.

West Volusia is, of course, part of Orlando Metro. If not, it should be.

But you also have to appreciate the geography of Orlando. East Orange County is all marshland and wetlands, and they discourage development out there. So its a natural barrier between urban areas, much like the mountain ranges in California.

However, there is a large development occurring in East Orange where 50 and 520 and 528 connect. And that development is only a few minutes drive to Titusville to the northeast, and Cocoa and Merritt and the rest of Brevard to the due east.

Also, southwest of Kissimmee, Poinciana is growing at an alarming rate right at the corner with Polk County, near Haines City. Look on Google maps.

I-4 will now be widened to I-95. All the exits will be new like in Hillsborough on I-4. DeLand will always be separate from DB b/c there a wildlife refuge between the two. Again, its a geographic boundary set by statute. It doesn't mean people would not otherwise develop the land if not for the restriction. Without it, DB and Orlando would have already merged with development. The same holds true for a portion of SR 44 from Deland to NSB.

And Cocoa is even shorter of a drive than DB is.

What does this all mean and why am I neglecting my work to type this? B/C I'm bored and this subject interests me.

Will Orlando catch Tampa? Who knows. But their growth rate is greater. I know Orange Co. is right behind Hillsborough in pop. and will surpass it within 2-3 years. Pinellas isn't growing. But Pasco is. But so is West Volusia, Osceola, and Lake (the existing recognized metro sections of Orlando).

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The only way Pinellas can add residents at a faster pace is through more aggressive, denser redevelopment. There are a lot of such projects in various stages of development. The growth rate of Pinellas will start to increase again in the coming years as more of these come online. We might start to see a difference by the next census.

South Hillsborough and Pasco are the hotbeds of suburban development right now. However, there's activity in Hernando, Citrus and now it's even leapfrogged to Sumter County. I saw an ad in the paper for "affordable housing" in Sumter County while I was in St. Pete for Christmas. I couldn't believe it!

Still, Orlando is growing faster, seemingly fueled by the endless expansion of tourist-based services (hotels/resorts). At the current rate, it just might overtake Tampa Bay. However, I see a Tampa/Orlando super-region forming before that happens. There's already an economic development initiative in effect for the super-region. Even the radio stations often advertise cross markets. It's only a matter of time.

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