Do you think the LR metro will ever hit 1 million?

[tim2462]

I wonder how housing is outside central and northwest Arkansas markets. Well that and Pine Bluff, I already know how it's doing too.

Central AR counties and Garland County are still booming. NWA is of course still booming. Craighead County (Jonesboro) is also still doing very well. I think Harrison and Mountain Home are still doing well. Crawford and Sebastian are still experiencing their boom too. The rest of the state is about the same or in a decline like most of the rest of the U.S.

[mcheiss]

I wonder how housing is outside central and northwest Arkansas markets. Well that and Pine Bluff, I already know how it's doing too.

Benton County had the second highest amount of homes sold in November. It had a 17% increase from November 2004. It was second only to Pulaski County.

[tim2462]

Current MetroPlan Population Estimates:

Little Rock MSA - 658,000

Little Rock CMSA - 730,000

MetroPlan 11 County Metro Area - 961,000

The Little Rock MSA includes Pulaski, Faulkner, Saline, Lonoke, Grant, & Perry Counties.

The Little Rock CMSA includes the MSA counties, plus White County.

The MetroPlan 11 County area adds Garland, Jefferson, Hot Spring, & Conway Counties.

This 11 county area is what is pitched to bring in new businesses and jobs to the area.

[Mith242]

Maybe NWA should pad it's number by adding the counties around Ft Smith.

[tim2462]

I think those two metros together would be around 600,000, maybe pushing 650,000...I could go count it up. They aren't padding numbers, they're just showing employers the number of people available to commute for good jobs. Thay recruit for the entire 11 counties, not just LR or the surrounding surburbs.

[tim2462]

Based on current estimates, here are some populations for the NWA and Fort Smith areas...

Fayetteville Springdale Rogers MSA - 402,000

*with Carroll County - 429,000

*with Adair & Delaware Counties, OK - 490,000

Fort Smith MSA - 287,000

Fayetteville - Fort Smith CMSA (if one existed) 689,000

*does not include Carroll, Adair, or Delaware Counties

12 county area including some counties not currently in either MSA, but

will likely be added soon - 777,000

Fayetteville Springdale Rogers MSA includes Benton, Washington, and Madison Counties

in AR and McDonald County in MO.

Fort Smith MSA includes Sebastian, Crawford, and Franklin Counties in AR, LeFlore and Sequoyah in OK

Other Counties figured in that will likely be added in the near future are Carroll County, AR, Adair and Delaware Counties in OK.

[mcheiss]

Wow, I didn't realize that the NWA Metro was up to 402,000. I'm sure Carroll will be added within a year along with the other Southwest Missouri County.

[tim2462]

I thought about Barry County, but that one I think is less likely, atleast for quite a while to come...so I didn't figure that one in.

[johnnydr87]

Lol. 11 county metro....funny stuff.

Maybe they should just add the whole state into the metro....I'm sure they'd really attract some businesses.

[tim2462]

hey, 11 counties isn't unreasonable...Atlanta MSA has 20 Counties...Kansas City MSA also has around 20...as cities grow and expand, counties are added...11 is not many at all.

[Mith242]

Wow, I didn't realize that the NWA Metro was up to 402,000. I'm sure Carroll will be added within a year along with the other Southwest Missouri County.

I don't think I had heard any estimates putting it that high either. But I've heard the 35,000 number for a while now and considering how big of a jump Springdale took with it's special census I'd say 375,000 to 400,00 isn't out of the question. I guess we'll find out more in this new year when other cities statrt having their special census as well.

[mcheiss]

I don't think I had heard any estimates putting it that high either. But I've heard the 35,000 number for a while now and considering how big of a jump Springdale took with it's special census I'd say 375,000 to 400,00 isn't out of the question. I guess we'll find out more in this new year when other cities statrt having their special census as well.

May'be they have factored in growth for last year as well.

[Aporkalypse]

Lol. 11 county metro....funny stuff.

Maybe they should just add the whole state into the metro....I'm sure they'd really attract some businesses.

They also like to use that "million people within 50 miles" thing.

Long term, though, I fully expect to see all of these counties in LR's MSA as Hot Springs and LR become more interdependent and Pine Bluff fades and fails to qualify for its own MSA. I was surprised that Russellville wasn't included. If you're going for 11 counties, that's one where a substantial number of people drive to Conway or LR to work.

[sleepy]

Just speculation--

With the West Memphis/Marion area continuing to be a draw for the auto industry and for East Arkansas employment, I wonder if the Jonesboro metro will ever become part of some Memphis-Jonesboro CSA?

Far-fetched, I think, but I do know people in Memphis who make the hour commute to Jonesboro to attend ASU's nursing school. Plus, I believe the highway connecting Jonesboro to I-55 is being upgraded to I-255.

[Mith242]

Just speculation--

With the West Memphis/Marion area continuing to be a draw for the auto industry and for East Arkansas employment, I wonder if the Jonesboro metro will ever become part of some Memphis-Jonesboro CSA?

Far-fetched, I think, but I do know people in Memphis who make the hour commute to Jonesboro to attend ASU's nursing school. Plus, I believe the highway connecting Jonesboro to I-55 is being upgraded to I-255.

I've wondered a little bit about that too. But it was hard for me to make any educated guesses because I really don't know that area very well.

[tim2462]

It's certainly possible...but I think with Jonesboro's growth, that it will continue to be it's on metro area. It now has 2 counties in its metro...not sure why Greene County/Paragould isn't part of it, as it certainly should be. That interstate is going to be I-555. They aren't far from completing it. They are also going to build an interstate connector over from Jonesboro, to the Hwy.67 freeway. That is poised to become an interstate...but no one knows what to call it. Some want to call it I-30, but it can't be a continuation of I-30 because an east west interstate can not cross another east west interstate...30 would cross 40 in NLR. Some have said maybe I-740....but the most likely and logical designation would be I-57...that interstate is a north/south interstate from Chicago that currently ends in SE Missouri. It's a really short distance from where it ends to the current 67 freeway. That would give us a direct interstate from Little Rock to Chicago.

[tim2462]

[sleepy]

It's certainly possible...but I think with Jonesboro's growth, that it will continue to be it's on metro area. It now has 2 counties in its metro...not sure why Greene County/Paragould isn't part of it, as it certainly should be.

That's what a CSA is--a combination of two metro areas or one metro and one or more micropolitan areas. The fact that Jonesboro is growing doesn't play a factor. What does is the percentage of commuters between the two areas.

[tim2462]

not many people commute from Jonesboro to Memphis to work though...that's where Jonesboro's growth matters because the more it grows, the more jobs it will have and be less dependant on surrounding areas.

[Aporkalypse]

That's what a CSA is--a combination of two metro areas or one metro and one or more micropolitan areas. The fact that Jonesboro is growing doesn't play a factor. What does is the percentage of commuters between the two areas.

Paragould and Jonesboro are more inseparable than Rogers and Fayetteville. It is weird their MSA doesn't include Greene Co.

[tim2462]

I don't think I had heard any estimates putting it that high either. But I've heard the 35,000 number for a while now and considering how big of a jump Springdale took with it's special census I'd say 375,000 to 400,00 isn't out of the question. I guess we'll find out more in this new year when other cities statrt having their special census as well.

That estimate is the 2004 estimates, with last years growth figured in at the previous year's rate to get the newest estimate...but estimates are usually pretty conservative, as we have found out with Springdale and Centerton.

[sleepy]

not many people commute from Jonesboro to Memphis to work though...that's where Jonesboro's growth matters because the more it grows, the more jobs it will have and be less dependant on surrounding areas.

I know, I was speculating on what could change if West Memphis/Marion got a large auto assembly plant which I suspect would draw a lot of employees from beyond Crittenden County.