Another Large Subdivision in Davidson County

[smeagolsfree]

Here is another large subdivision for Davidson which added to other developments announced over the past year or so will contribute to huge population gains here. I know there is one development off Bell rd that plans 12,000 homes over the next few years and this one 1700 new homes over 5 years. I have been watching another large development go in off Briley and Whitescreek and 2 more a planned close to this area. Bellevue has either 1 or 2 1000 home subdivisions in the works and the list goes on. This will help push Nashville to the 700,000 plus mark by 2010. I am sure Hankster can come up with the projected numbers. Do you think we will be at or beyond 700,000 by the next census. Just want to throw this out for some conjecture.

http://nashville.bizjournals.com/nashville.../26/story1.html

[smeagolsfree]

The site has been down for a day, but I have 6 more article from today's Tennessean that may be of interest to you. These all have to do with urban growth and subdivisions in town and will give everyone a bigger picture of how much things are growing here.

http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...8/1346/COUNTY01

http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...5/1196/COUNTY01

http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...7/1197/COUNTY01

http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...6/1195/COUNTY01

http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...9/1195/COUNTY01

http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...2/1194/COUNTY01

[knoxster77]

Here is another large subdivision for Davidson which added to other developments announced over the past year or so will contribute to huge population gains here. I know there is one development off Bell rd that plans 12,000 homes over the next few years and this one 1700 new homes over 5 years. I have been watching another large development go in off Briley and Whitescreek and 2 more a planned close to this area. Bellevue has either 1 or 2 1000 home subdivisions in the works and the list goes on. This will help push Nashville to the 700,000 plus mark by 2010. I am sure Hankster can come up with the projected numbers. Do you think we will be at or beyond 700,000 by the next census. Just want to throw this out for some conjecture.

http://nashville.bizjournals.com/nashville.../26/story1.html

Well, I sent an email about a year ago to the Nashville-Davidson Metro Planning Department. I was curious to know why the census shows that Nashville will be hemorrhaging people by 2010. They explained to me that they have a history of miscalculating population projections with Davidson County and that Nashville is indeed adding residents. According to the Planning Dept and the UT Center for Business and Economic Research (this is last year's info mind you), Davidson County is project to have around 621,000 habitants by 2010. But, I would not be suprised if an adjustment is not needed with all the current building projects.

Here is a good website with census info: http://www.state.tn.us/tacir/population.htm

[sleepy]

Well, I sent an email about a year ago to the Nashville-Davidson Metro Planning Department. I was curious to know why the census shows that Nashville will be hemorrhaging people by 2010. They explained to me that they have a history of miscalculating population projections with Davidson County and that Nashville is indeed adding residents. According to the Planning Dept and the UT Center for Business and Economic Research (this is last year's info mind you), Davidson County is project to have around 621,000 habitants by 2010. But, I would not be suprised if an adjustment is not needed with all the current building projects.

Here is a good website with census info: http://www.state.tn.us/tacir/population.htm

As far as I know, the census doesn't do population projections for counties, just states. What they do for cities and counties are estimates.

The reason the estimates during the 90's were off--nationally, not just Nashville--was due to the fact that the 1990 census was inaccurately low. The census itself admitted as much and had a plan in place to statistically modify the 2000 results if they were deemed inaccurate. The 2000 census was deemed far more accurate than the 1990 census.

The estimates throughout the 90's used the low 1990 figures as a population baseline. That's why there was a discrepancy between those estimates and the actual 2000 count.

[smeagolsfree]

I have a Metro Govt. website that gives the population estimates for the county. According to the site the est. 2004 population was a little over 595,000. The projected population for 2010 was 619,000, but I think it will be much higher than that based on the trends for the Nashville area as being the #1 business relocation city and economic strength being # 4 in the nation. There is just too much going on here to expect just 619,000 by 2010. Here is the link to the Metro site.

http://www.nashville.gov/mpc/population_projections2010.htm

[Hankster]

I have a Metro Govt. website that gives the population estimates for the county. According to the site the est. 2004 population was a little over 595,000. The projected population for 2010 was 619,000, but I think it will be much higher than that based on the trends for the Nashville area as being the #1 business relocation city and economic strength being # 4 in the nation. There is just too much going on here to expect just 619,000 by 2010. Here is the link to the Metro site.

http://www.nashville.gov/mpc/population_projections2010.htm

I personally believe that the 2004 estimate for Davidson County of 595,000 is reasonably accurate. However, I think that their projection of 619,000 for 2010 will be considerably on the low side. Metro's 2004 estimate is an increase of about 26,000 over the 2000 Census population of 569,000. That's an increase of about 6,500 per year. Metro then assumed that growth would actually slow down over the remainder of the decade growing only 24,000 more in 6 years or only 4,000 per year over the rest of the decade. Rather than growth slowing down, it seems pretty obvious to me from all the articles Ron has shared with us that growth will actually accelerate over the remaining 6 years of this decade. It's hard to say just how many of these projects will actually get built or partially built by 2010, and it would be more difficult to project what the final population will actually be when you factor in things such as outward migration and smaller family sizes. Thus it would be difficult for me to say that Davidson County population will total 700,000 by 2010. It's not out of the realm of possibility. However, I would feel reasonbly safe in guessing that the growth from 2004 to 2010 will be about 1.5 times the growth of the previous four years. That would mean adding 10,000 new Davidson County residents each year. My guess would then be a population of 655,000 for Davidson in 2010. That would be a very significant increase of 86,000 (14.4%) over 2000 .

[ATLBrain]

Believe it or not, Vandy has a staff demographer in their development office. Their estimate for Davidson Co. population in 2005 was 605,000, and their projection for 2010 is 645K.

[Bears]

Believe it or not, Vandy has a staff demographer in their development office. Their estimate for Davidson Co. population in 2005 was 605,000, and their projection for 2010 is 645K.

Wow if that happens, can Nashville afford to build new schools and widen roads that quickly?

[cheeriokid61]

No, probably not. I doubt that they could start major infrastructure improvements until after they get the money, and they won't be able to get the money until after people move here.

[Hankster]

Because of infrastructure improvements, it's probably good the city is not growing any faster than it is. All this new housing, if it comes on stream as projected, will put a burden on schools, especially in Southeast Davidson. Of course, that area has been growing pretty rapidly for a long while, so there may already be a plan in effect that will cover most of this growth surge. As far as highway improvements....well, it seems like they're always in a constant state of being widened. If we grow even faster, they will be even more torn up they are now.

[smeagolsfree]

Wow if that happens, can Nashville afford to build new schools and widen roads that quickly?

The good thing about the road widening projects is that most are financed by the state and many of the projects have been planned years in advance.

On a side note today, the road projects at Briley and I 40 are all ahead of schedule and are due to be completed at the end of next year.

[it's just dave]

Briley is getting pretty incredible. The new leg I take from the Opryland area to Gallatin Road is beautiful. I've drive on that part of Briley most of my life and riding on smooth as glass lanes 5 wide in some place, 4 in the rest is quite the luxury. And as a parkway, truck traffic is severely limited, so it's a huge pleasure to drive on it.

And, speaking of widening roads, I just came from 840 at 65 outside of Franklin and in the Cool Springs area and south, the bulldozers are out in full force on each side of the freeway. I don't know what's up, but it looks like enough dirt is being turned for two more lanes each side. That's speculation and for how far I don't know, but 10 or 12 lanes through that section 20 miles south of town will sure look impressive to our new Nissan folks. Sure did to me.

[Onyte9]

I think 700,000+ is a great estimate. Think about all of the urban renewal going on. There are so many high density developments all over Nashville that are replacing either office buildings or single family homes. So many infill projects and resto projects in neighborhoods that were depleted and forgoent, the numbers are huge. There are a good number of neighborhoods that have went from run down to bustling communitys. Look at all the huge developements going on in or around downtown. By the time the Gulch and Rolling Mill Hill are completed they will both be massive functioning communitys(I know it this will take longer than 2010). Then add to that all of the new subdivisions going on on the outskirts of town. Far southern Davidson is exploding along will Bellevue. Thinking of all that 700,000 may be conservative.

[Lexy]

^ Good point. 650,000 is very realistic for this year IMO. 700,000 is not too far off for either 2010 or 2020.

[ATLBrain]

No, probably not. I doubt that they could start major infrastructure improvements until after they get the money, and they won't be able to get the money until after people move here.

Them's whatcha call 'groin pains'... Personally, I think anything faster erodes the quality of life. There's ample evidence of that around here in Atlanta. On a positive note, I think we're finally starting to correct some of our mistakes over the previous half-century.

[ATLBrain]

Briley is getting pretty incredible. The new leg I take from the Opryland area to Gallatin Road is beautiful.

Glad to hear that Briley has gotten a makeover... I haven't seen it in probably 8 years. Did they keep the name of 'my' bridge? It's the Duke-Fuqua bridge, and when I saw it the first time, I marvelled at the coincidence. Duke University's business school is the Fuqua school. It's known as Duke's Fuqua School.

[Lexy]

^ I believe the name is still the same.

[cheeriokid61]

And, speaking of widening roads, I just came from 840 at 65 outside of Franklin and in the Cool Springs area and south, the bulldozers are out in full force on each side of the freeway. I don't know what's up, but it looks like enough dirt is being turned for two more lanes each side. That's speculation and for how far I don't know, but 10 or 12 lanes through that section 20 miles south of town will sure look impressive to our new Nissan folks. Sure did to me.

Well Dave, I've got some bad news for ya. What you saw was not the beginning of a six highway. What you saw was actually the construction of the new Liberty Pike interstate exit. Maybe they'll add in a lane or two of entrance and exit ramps for you, though.

[it's just dave]

Well, fine. hahaha. Okay, I'll take a new exit. I did think it odd. Seems they'd go ahead and widen the interstate to Columbia before they tinkered with the Cool Springs area. It's seems more than adequate right now with 8 lanes. Thanks for clearing that up Cheerio.

Speaking of ramps. Yesterday, I left Franklin on Columbia Pike and accessed 840 from there. I've never seen such ramps. The ramp onto 840 was so long, I didn't know if I'd ever hit the highway and from 840 to 65, even longer. They certainly didn't skimp on any funding for this road. As controversial as it was over the years, it sure is a site to see.

[smeagolsfree]

I think that is the new interchange to go into the park where Nissan is. The State said they were going to get started on it ASAP. I didn't know the name of it . Thanks for the info Cheerio.

[it's just dave]

I agree, I believe the bridge still has the same name (both of them, since there are now two).

Brain, I'm a bit envious about you're not having seen Briley in several years. You're in for quite the shockeroo. If you were familiar with Briley, your tour should start at I-24 where Thompson Lane becomes Briley...and go from there, ultimately ending up at White Bridge Road. Hundreds of millions of TDOT dollars over the years will become quite evident. There's nothing about the parkway that resembles anything in the past, nothing. Then, hit 65 North to Rivergate...no nostalgia there either. I'm amazed at 5-6-7 lanes wide each side ... all concrete. Mercy.

[ATLBrain]

Thanks for the update guys. Glad to hear that TDOT hasn't messed with Duke Fuqua's (whoever he was) memorial. Two bridges now?!

I'll be coming up soon and I-24 will be my route. I'll try to leave enough time for an eastern-to-the-north sweep on the new roads. It's long overdue.

Dave, while I have not been that far down I-65 in about two years, I do recall reading some articles in the last year that TDOT was planning to widen that road from the I-840 interchange up to Highway 96. Could that be what you saw?

So on my way into town, I guess I'll swing easterly... then northerly... then on my way back home, I'll take I-65 down to 840 to see everything down there. Roads... roads... roads!

[MidTenn1]

The current project on I-65 is for the construction of an interchange with McEwen Drive. It will tie in to Liberty Road, but McEwen is the overpass road and carries the name of the interchange.

[it's just dave]

Brain, I meant 65-N toward Rivergate...that's the big one. lol

[ATLBrain]

Brain, I meant 65-N toward Rivergate...that's the big one. lol

OIC. I'm sure I'll be stunned by all the changes in that part of the county. I'm looking forward to a trip soon... maybe sometime in late January.

On a slightly related note, I read an article (from the Tennessean online??) just a few weeks ago that reported 17,000 houses are planned for Hendersonville in the next three years! OMG, that's about 40K new residents in less than five years. I'm not sure, but that's got to be the greatest amount built in that short of a time in the whole county. Isn't the population of Hendersonville just about 50K right now? So that city will almost double in five years?!